So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[sonatine]

i'm sorry but i love drakkar. haven't had it since high school but still

weird flex incoming:

ive had the same bottle of drakkar for several decades.

[JimmyG_415]

Oh no, what happened?
did Hannity poo poo contract tracing last night or something?
Is that what this is all about?

I'm not sure how it works, but the scientists do, and I'll stick w/them (you know the ones that said hydroxychloroquine
was a bunch of BS. And you guys can stick w/Laura Ingriham MD)

This is the same "we can't stop EVERY shooter, so why have any laws at all" argument you use w/guns,
(& ironically the opposite argument druff made for the wall,)
And I'll say what I said to that, (and druff said for the wall),
"Right, it won't stop everyone, but why not make it harder on the guy (the virus in this case)."

Obv it won't be 100 % fool proof, but to act like it's just hopeless, Esp Today, is just wrong.
People going to the market aren't mixing like they used to, they can at least get to the people working at the store
And maybe some didn't go to the market, and its easy to figure out who they are in contact with & maybe even save some lives.
But you guys seemingly don't care about that anymore.

You guys literally live in a different world than I do, what do the older people in your lives say to this,
'F it, you had a good run, but you're over 79, & I need to get a haircut' attitude the right has now??"
& when abortions come up again, the right has officially lost their "we're pro life" stance.

Science > Fox "news"

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

[lol wow]

of course the 2 biggest cucks on skatz poker love drakkar noir

[lol wow]

OF COURSE

[Krypt]

You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.

Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?

Ahh I figured out the math

13,500 people divided by 1,2000,000 to 1,600,000 infected= .8% to 1.1% death rate.

I am interested in comparing those numbers versus where I live for example...

We have tested 1 in every 182 people in the State (one of the highest in the country).

20% of our tests come back positive.

Now if we figure 40% of people show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms....so let's say 75% of those people never get tested.

So we actually have 3x the number of reported cases.

That gives my State a .6% death rate.

But of the 188 deaths, 87 are over the age of 80 (18.7% death rate), 75 are 60-80 (5.5% death rate), 22 are 40-60 (.6% death rate), 4 are 18-40 (.1% death rate).

My State is White and very old, NYC is younger and very brown, but has a higher death rate. Guessing this has something to do with the air pollution and minorities in NYC? Curious what your thoughts are.

you used to be the second biggest creep on this site before 4Dragons was outed as a pedo. I called him out well in advance of his arrest, btw. Now that he’s in the slammer, you’re easily the biggest voyeur CREEP in this cesspool.

[sonatine]

According to Laura Ingraham on Fox News, there is no scientific evidence that social distancing works, and she literally quoted an unnamed 'doctor' as saying "viruses just spread, you cant stop them".

Lotta lawyers going to be paying for a lot of bunkers with what they scrape off the Fox News civil suits.

[sonatine]

also someone decided to try to reverse engineer the white houses 'sharp dropoff' chart and they discovered that by entering deaths into excel and clicking the 'add trendline' button, its a perfect match.

republicans are rejecting the advice of virologists in favor of excel.

[sonatine]

also france moved back their first infection to december; dr sent in a pneumonia swab for testing and it came back pos.

[ErickAA]

You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.

Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?

Ahh I figured out the math

13,500 people divided by 1,2000,000 to 1,600,000 infected= .8% to 1.1% death rate.

I am interested in comparing those numbers versus where I live for example...

We have tested 1 in every 182 people in the State (one of the highest in the country).

20% of our tests come back positive.

Now if we figure 40% of people show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms....so let's say 75% of those people never get tested.

So we actually have 3x the number of reported cases.

That gives my State a .6% death rate.

But of the 188 deaths, 87 are over the age of 80 (18.7% death rate), 75 are 60-80 (5.5% death rate), 22 are 40-60 (.6% death rate), 4 are 18-40 (.1% death rate).

My State is White and very old, NYC is younger and very brown, but has a higher death rate. Guessing this has something to do with the air pollution and minorities in NYC? Curious what your thoughts are.

Iowa?

Either way, good chance your state hasn't even peaked yet, and most of your cases are still active. So I wouldn't spend too much time trying to extrapolate meaningful data under these conditions. Even the NY data is more of a snapshot of 2 weeks ago than today, but the N is so much larger the numbers are more meaningful IMO. I suspect if your state didn't get another case and you just waited 3 weeks, and you antibody tested, your death rate would be closer to 1% than 0.5%, and we would realize the virus actually hasn't spread very much (yet).

Minorities in urban cold weather cities are getting especially hard hit because of crowded living conditions and poor social distancing practices IMO. There is a comorbidity issue too, but I suspect your state isn't much better along those lines. Most US States have a lot of fat, middle aged people with diabetes/hypertension. Also, I think we are going to see that nursing homes in NYC have done a very poor job of keeping the virus from spreading, which is driving a lot of the mortality.

I suspect air pollution is a small rock.

[apwiz]

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.

Contract tracing is actually a fairly easy process... but USA has no legal framework to put it in place.

In countries that have implemented contract tracing programs, patients give access to their smartphone and some additional records/devices. Our smartphone is an extremely good tracker. This is cross-referenced against commercially and privately available data that keeps track of smartphone location/time data and government/private sources. Phones that are identified as being within X distance of patient for X amount of time get a text message giving them isolation/testing/information. Sometimes they get a call. While not extremely easy, it is a pretty straightforward system. Some of the tech giants are pitching this to our government right now.

I am sure that we can both think of a dozen scenarios where there are gaps in info, and therefore gaps in tracking. But this is still extremely effective and pretty cheap.

In contrast, USA contract tracing stories I read describe interviewing patients for very long time and trying to get them to recall names and places. There is a call center army talking for hours with potential infected people. Welcome to the 1970s. Also, in the USA, a lot more people are much more likely to disregard everything anyway. I am sure that South Koreans that get these texts and calls take it more seriously.

[abrown83]

Ahh I figured out the math

13,500 people divided by 1,2000,000 to 1,600,000 infected= .8% to 1.1% death rate.

I am interested in comparing those numbers versus where I live for example...

We have tested 1 in every 182 people in the State (one of the highest in the country).

20% of our tests come back positive.

Now if we figure 40% of people show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms....so let's say 75% of those people never get tested.

So we actually have 3x the number of reported cases.

That gives my State a .6% death rate.

But of the 188 deaths, 87 are over the age of 80 (18.7% death rate), 75 are 60-80 (5.5% death rate), 22 are 40-60 (.6% death rate), 4 are 18-40 (.1% death rate).

My State is White and very old, NYC is younger and very brown, but has a higher death rate. Guessing this has something to do with the air pollution and minorities in NYC? Curious what your thoughts are.

Iowa?

Either way, good chance your state hasn't even peaked yet, and most of your cases are still active. So I wouldn't spend too much time trying to extrapolate meaningful data under these conditions. Even the NY data is more of a snapshot of 2 weeks ago than today, but the N is so much larger the numbers are more meaningful IMO. I suspect if your state didn't get another case and you just waited 3 weeks, and you antibody tested, your death rate would be closer to 1% than 0.5%, and we would realize the virus actually hasn't spread very much (yet).

Minorities in urban cold weather cities are getting especially hard hit because of crowded living conditions and poor social distancing practices IMO. There is a comorbidity issue too, but I suspect your state isn't much better along those lines. Most US States have a lot of fat, middle aged people with diabetes/hypertension. Also, I think we are going to see that nursing homes in NYC have done a very poor job of keeping the virus from spreading, which is driving a lot of the mortality.

I suspect air pollution is a small rock.

Follow-up questions, after the initial death spike of people over the age of 65, in subsequent years will we see a large decline in the death rate?

Like if I went back in looked at Spanish Flu or other major pandemics, are death rates higher in the first year as the vulnerable die and then the death rate flattens?

What do you think the death rate would be if US had a 0% obesity rate versus 40%?

My core issue, is it feels like we are potentially trading young peoples lives through long-term poverty, for old people who have a very short (relative) remaining time anyways. That would be a very American thing to do anyways so I guess I shouldn't be shocked.

[abrown83]

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.

Contract tracing is actually a fairly easy process... but USA has no legal framework to put it in place.

In countries that have implemented contract tracing programs, patients give access to their smartphone and some additional records/devices. Our smartphone is an extremely good tracker. This is cross-referenced against commercially and privately available data that keeps track of smartphone location/time data and government/private sources. Phones that are identified as being within X distance of patient for X amount of time get a text message giving them isolation/testing/information. Sometimes they get a call. While not extremely easy, it is a pretty straightforward system. Some of the tech giants are pitching this to our government right now.

I am sure that we can both think of a dozen scenarios where there are gaps in info, and therefore gaps in tracking. But this is still extremely effective and pretty cheap.

In contrast, USA contract tracing stories I read describe interviewing patients for very long time and trying to get them to recall names and places. There is a call center army talking for hours with potential infected people. Welcome to the 1970s. Also, in the USA, a lot more people are much more likely to disregard everything anyway. I am sure that South Koreans that get these texts and calls take it more seriously.

Even more likely, Americans would just leave their phones at home.

[sonatine]

speaking of Fox covid legal exposure...


Donald Trump Jr. To Acquire Stake In OANN

[MrTickle]

UK has most deaths in Europe now. Congrats Boris, European champions!

[simpdog]

UK has most deaths in Europe now. Congrats Boris, European champions!

Boris survived so basically anyone can.

[thesidedish]

also france moved back their first infection to december; dr sent in a pneumonia swab for testing and it came back pos.

I think I had this in like mid February. Thought I had a cold or something but it was so mild I never officially considered myself sick. hacked up some flem I never seen before, that's for sure

[BCR]

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

So that's bad news for the ol herd immunity theory

People always gloss over the shit that matters. This has been surmised and the multiple strains have been known, but to see someone that qualified talking about the mutation occurring in the peak sequence of the virus where any vaccines were aimed at is disheartening. My takeaway is that we may have this forever. And multiple infections which could require a new vaccine every year. Fuck, this isn't the flu either. This thing smashes the fuck out of the flu. It was obvious something happened between Italy and here. We had a few random cases, but this strain just bullies them off the court.

Going forward, this changes shit big time. We need a national obesity program. Every red state will fight it and mock it like they did with the soda shit in NYC or Michelle Obama trying to get kids to eat healthy in schools, but anyone sitting around fat over 40 is going to be dead and the red states should care because they are the easily the fattest white people alive by a long way. We are moving into survival of the fittest Darwinian territory no doubt.

[MumblesBadly]

JimmyG_415: Druff has lost it if he thinks the PRES has to lie 20k times for "the greater good" This corrupt admin doesn't know what "the greater good" is.

JimmyG, you’ve forgotten that Druff believes that Trump getting re-elected this fall IS “for the greater good” given the for-sure apocalypse of tens of millions of on-demand 8 1/2-month abortions that liberals will be having each year otherwise. (Plus those tax cuts. Can’t forget the tax cuts.)

[Wiganer]

UK has most deaths in Europe now. Congrats Boris, European champions!

Two countries doing worst on COVID have right wing governments, who would have imagined such an outcome?

[gauchojake]

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

So that's bad news for the ol herd immunity theory

People always gloss over the shit that matters. This has been surmised and the multiple strains have been known, but to see someone that qualified talking about the mutation occurring in the peak sequence of the virus where any vaccines were aimed at is disheartening. My takeaway is that we may have this forever. And multiple infections which could require a new vaccine every year. Fuck, this isn't the flu either. This thing smashes the fuck out of the flu. It was obvious something happened between Italy and here. We had a few random cases, but this strain just bullies them off the court.

Going forward, this changes shit big time. We need a national obesity program. Every red state will fight it and mock it like they did with the soda shit in NYC or Michelle Obama trying to get kids to eat healthy in schools, but anyone sitting around fat over 40 is going to be dead and the red states should care because they are the easily the fattest white people alive by a long way. We are moving into survival of the fittest Darwinian territory no doubt.

Honestly my enthusiasm for this thing ending was basically shit on by that article.

It explains the multiple infection reports and it's just really disheartening. Like we are working towards trying to contain a moving target that we think is stationary.