https://www.seeitmarket.com/is-repo-...o-get-serious/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/av...-end-liquidity
apologies for the zerohedge blog post but its complimentary to the provenance of the first article.
as far as i can tell they are just bailing out the banks to force loans to a bunch of hedgetards before the system falls apart, instead of after.
so i ask; how is this not another bailout?
also lol freemarketaments.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
More like a pre-need-to-openly-bail-out-many-bad-banks ameliorative measure. Sort of like sealing the bulkhead doors of the Titanic and ramping up the bilge pumps while hoping that the tear in the hull doesn’t spread.
_____________________________________________
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
im guessing that you probably don't think this, but if you think these markets aren't being manipulated hardcore I gotta a load of island property in Kansas to sell you...
hedgies are leveraging the fuck up, because 'why not'...there is literally no fear in the market...volatility is fucking dogshit, nobody is concerned about the market going down because they "know" the fed will bail it out with QE, fed statements, trump tweets, etc...so when you have no fear of shit going down, then why the fuck not try to go to 2x, 3x, 5x to get more of a return so that 2/20 has teeth at the end of the year...
there is literally no reason for the fed to lower rates or keep rates low...why should you be cutting rates with the economy humming and unemployment low? the only reason they are doing this is because powell is a spineless piece of shit who wont stand up to trump...
this china trade deal has literally been trotted out 4 times in the last few months...and every time a "deal" is announced the market goes up..lol...
if trump gets a 2nd term this will continue until im guessin the end of his second term when shit starts to crash and burn...
Every 11 minutes in America a person (typically a white person) dies of an opioid overdoes.
But hopefully the finance folks (typically not white people) are ok.
is it possible that tea retard is sinking 500bn into hedgies so they can make one last cash grab before they fold and cash out? id keep rates low if i knew the end was nigh.im guessing that you probably don't think this, but if you think these markets aren't being manipulated hardcore I gotta a load of island property in Kansas to sell you...
hedgies are leveraging the fuck up, because 'why not'...there is literally no fear in the market...volatility is fucking dogshit, nobody is concerned about the market going down because they "know" the fed will bail it out with QE, fed statements, trump tweets, etc...so when you have no fear of shit going down, then why the fuck not try to go to 2x, 3x, 5x to get more of a return so that 2/20 has teeth at the end of the year...
there is literally no reason for the fed to lower rates or keep rates low...why should you be cutting rates with the economy humming and unemployment low? the only reason they are doing this is because powell is a spineless piece of shit who wont stand up to trump...
this china trade deal has literally been trotted out 4 times in the last few months...and every time a "deal" is announced the market goes up..lol...
if trump gets a 2nd term this will continue until im guessin the end of his second term when shit starts to crash and burn...
the market manipulation seems transparent enough but i genuinely have no opinion on if its worse/better than it was during the last subprime implosion.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
I mean im not economist, but ill say this...rates are low, which forces people into risk assets...who has the greatest ownership of risk assets?is it possible that tea retard is sinking 500bn into hedgies so they can make one last cash grab before they fold and cash out? id keep rates low if i knew the end was nigh.
the market manipulation seems transparent enough but i genuinely have no opinion on if its worse/better than it was during the last subprime implosion.
I mean any perversion of capitalism is kinda fucking shit, at least in my view...not that im naïve enough to think that pure capitalism exists any more...I mean you would figure this perversion, when it implodes (and it will eventually...see 2000), will only affect the rich unlike the subprime which fucked a lot of people who weren't well off...but then again when shit starts to hit the fan and people are counting on the money that they have from this huge run up in stocks and it's not there (see soon to be retirees/pension funds), it ain't gonna be pretty....
i don't read 10Ks and shit, but from shit that i see from time to time, earnings growth is being driven mainly by corporations lowering the S in EPS...so when the cheap money stops sloshing around and the S is no longer available to be lowered then what? i mean is AAPL really a $1T company? again im not an AAPLfile, but have they released any ground breaking product in the last year, 5 years? not that i know of...
powell should literally tell trump to go fuck himself or fire him...what the hell happens when rates are artificially low and shit actually starts to go wrong? lot less ammo in the tank when you need it...of course there's always QE970 or whatever iteration we're on...
im rambling...
EDIT: and I don't think this is one last cash grab...I think trump wants to be able to point to his 4-8 years in office and say 'I am the greatest, look at what the stock market has done under my presidency!!!!'...220ish to 320ish on the SPY since early '17...he's well on his way there...
Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 12-13-2019 at 11:27 PM.
'tine here it is for you...got curious so I looked it up...this is a very 10,000 foot view...didn't look at one time charges YOY, etc...
was right...AAPL's bottom line DECREASED 7.2% ($430M if my math is correct) from FY '18 to FY '19, but their EPS was roughly flat because they bought back roughly 360M shares...sneaky huh? what's gonna happen to all companies, not just AAPL, when the cheap money runs out and they actually have to drive either top line growth or cut expenses to drive bottom line growth? taint gonna be pretty...
https://investor.apple.com/sec-filings/default.aspx
Hey Nerds, don't be so eager to give answers without loansharking something in return...
remember in high school how all the cool kids kissed up to you before the exams, then afterward ghosted you?
didn't you learn then to set a price on your knowledge?
so take a lesson from your president--- a quid quo pro should be key element of your modus operandi
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
basic finance knowledge, aka finance 101, is free...
finance 201+ is behind the paywall...
Well written Gamble.
I just checked and see AAPL now has a (rounded to the nearest tenth trillion) 1.3T market cap.
Think about it...300 Billion MORE market capitalization for this company since it reached 1 T on Aug 2, 2018. $300 Billion more worth: For what, the name?
No real new products/services, agreed. But not a sky high PE ratio at 23 1/2 either. Just a very good company at keeping it's proprietary money making machines humming and giving people what they want: ease-of-use, status, and cult-like belongingness feelings?
but in order to drive $300B in valuation you should be generating new products, selling more existing products, or some combination of the 2...Well written Gamble.
I just checked and see AAPL now has a (rounded to the nearest tenth trillion) 1.3T market cap.
Think about it...300 Billion MORE market capitalization for this company since it reached 1 T on Aug 2, 2018. $300 Billion more worth: For what, the name?
No real new products/services, agreed. But not a sky high PE ratio at 23 1/2 either. Just a very good company at keeping it's proprietary money making machines humming and giving people what they want: ease-of-use, status, and cult-like belongingness feelings?
look at a few posts above...their earnings "growth" isn't being driven by actual product sales, efficiencies, etc...it's merely being generated by corporate stock purchases...that's not growth...that's financial engineering...you can't look at them and say their PE is 23.5...their E is being manipulated by financial engineering...not saying there's anything wrong with stock repurchases, etc...but at the end of the day when you are looking at buying stock in a company you want to see them actually generating more revenue or running more efficiently to drive their bottom line, not driving their bottom line earnings by buying back stock...
caveat to the above sentence is that I didn't dive into their earnings to see one time charges in FY '18 relative to FY '19 or anything else that coulda fucked with their bottom line...
just posting this pic for context...basically AAPL has added a BOA, a Mastercard, a fucking Exxon Mobil, a fucking Coca-Cola, etc. to their market cap in the last year plus without really making a new "thing" that everybody has to have...fucking crazy...
mentioned only for the sake of accuracy and not intended as a rebuttal; iphones are ubiquitous and apple has a self driving car program thats probably going to fuck like a stallion if they can ever bring the iCar to market.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
appreciate the discussion, 'tine...
i don't know shit about upgrade cycles and how many people they have sucking on the teat with upgrading with every new device that they put out, but it would look like that even though damn near everybody has one it's not moving their bottom line Y/Y...
iCar would be something new that would move the stock price higher, but not the bottom line...but my question for that would be (a) how far off is that? 5 years/10 years? (b) is there a very large market for that or is that more of a 'AAPL cult thing' for lack of a better phrase...cause if that is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar off it wouldn't really move the stock price because it would be so heavily discounted that it wouldn't move the needle in the stock price...
Totally agree. I mean, if you keep buying back your own stock just because you can borrow at nearly 0% and then buy something (your own stock) that seemingly should keep going up and up, why NOT do it if your AAPL? It'll keep your stock rising and profits growing better than almost anything you can do with that cash pile for at least for a while.but in order to drive $300B in valuation you should be generating new products, selling more existing products, or some combination of the 2...
look at a few posts above...their earnings "growth" isn't being driven by actual product sales, efficiencies, etc...it's merely being generated by corporate stock purchases...that's not growth...that's financial engineering...you can't look at them and say their PE is 23.5...their E is being manipulated by financial engineering...not saying there's anything wrong with stock repurchases, etc...but at the end of the day when you are looking at buying stock in a company you want to see them actually generating more revenue or running more efficiently to drive their bottom line, not driving their bottom line earnings by buying back stock...
caveat to the above sentence is that I didn't dive into their earnings to see one time charges in FY '18 relative to FY '19 or anything else that coulda fucked with their bottom line...
just posting this pic for context...basically AAPL has added a BOA, a Mastercard, a fucking Exxon Mobil, a fucking Coca-Cola, etc. to their market cap in the last year plus without really making a new "thing" that everybody has to have...fucking crazy...
Problems with THAT happening:
1. Nearly 0% interest shouldn't be happening in a bull market in the first place. But it usually does anyway, especially when the bull is old and there's so much calling to drop rates. So-called "Powell's lack of spine" is part of it of course. Maybe he is just bowing to Trump, who himself just wants the greatest growth in markets while he's in power. The strongest company's take advantage of this as they probably should, but only to a point. (see #2)
2. AAPL keeps reducing its shares O/S, meaning more EPS, which is good, but it keeps doing so at more and more expensive pricing points, which eventually isn't good. You just don't know it wasn't good until the market turns, stocks crash and it becomes self-evident (since the stock you paid 280 for is now 180 and would have been a ton better of a deal for investors).
So that's the problem. AAPL has so much cash it owns, can get at nearly 0%, but it's just impossible to find enough high-growth places to put it. This massive buy back is a good idea, until it isn't. Probably somewhere near that place right, about, now.
I will say on the powell thing that I didn't mention when I called him spineless...
it's been thrown about that the rate cuts and INCREASE of the fed balance sheet was caused by the fed wanting to get ahead of any trade war with china...they were trying to ally fears of businesses that shit might be getting real...if that's part of the reason (in addition to trump wanting markets to go to the fucking moon), i'll give him a slight pass...however now that the bullshit phase 1 of the deal has been passed, there should really be no reason to have an accommodative rate policy...
but methinks that this china trade deal is gonna linger like a stank shit until the election comes so that the fed is hamstrung on trying to raise rates before trump can get re-elected...
appreciate the discussion, 'tine...
i don't know shit about upgrade cycles and how many people they have sucking on the teat with upgrading with every new device that they put out, but it would look like that even though damn near everybody has one it's not moving their bottom line Y/Y...
iCar would be something new that would move the stock price higher, but not the bottom line...but my question for that would be (a) how far off is that? 5 years/10 years? (b) is there a very large market for that or is that more of a 'AAPL cult thing' for lack of a better phrase...cause if that is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar off it wouldn't really move the stock price because it would be so heavily discounted that it wouldn't move the needle in the stock price...
point very well taken re stock vs bottom line, i hadnt considered that honestly.
the thing holding back the iCar is the thing holding back a lot of other self driving cars; state level regulations. but no ones really lobbying supes hard rn because the technology is immature. but without question, in or within a decade we are going to be hyperlooping in our electric iCars up and down both coasts.
if i had to guess, 5 years from now the first iCar will drop with a nav system licensed from ... you guessed it, tesla.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
The entire worldwide economy has been fixed for the last 13 years. It will go on for as long as “they” can keep it going. The actual numbers/widgets sloshing around the system are fake and the next step, eventually, will be a worldwide reset button. It will be written about for centuries afterwards.
Eventually the gold bugs and hoarders will be proven right, but it could take another 30 years.
ill say 11, but daly's right...
markets are basically like coke addicts...they got addicted to cheap money during QE in '08 and policy makers have fucking caved to it year after year after year...
we really need a guy/gal who is gonna say 'enough of this bullshit'...I'd be very surprised to see it come from the euro zone and japan is a fucking mess too...it's gotta come from the US...
the problem with this is that there are damn few politicians who want that to happen under their watch...not that this is a political decision, but if the fed is gonna be politicized (kinda like it is now) then we are in fuuuuuuuuuck city...whoever does finally do this rate tightening and balance sheet unwinding is gonna have to figure out how to land a 777 on a one lane highway to make sure shit really doesn't get outta hand...as impossible as that looks...
Daly & GBCP ... good stuff
Etch this into the cheap veneer of your desk. Check in with it from time to time to remain centered.
At the end of an economic expansion, the resilience to poor economic news and political headlines diminishes as valuations get compressed by rising yields and increasing inflation.
It’s a variant of the day traders simplistic “sometimes bad news is good news & sometimes good news is bad news... etc” mantra.
The President of the United States is well down the path of impeachment and no one gives a particular shit about the uncertainty this brings. All time highs. The gamble is at fever pitch.
Talk about resilience. It tells you everything you need to know about the froth
“The actual number of widgets matters not” as Daly & GBCP point out. Remember PE’s? That’s right, I’m an old. Lol.
Getting back to the OP, I read about the overnight lending a while ago... everyone knows... forgot about it tbh. you gonna quit now? You can’t.
I don’t think we suffered enough post 2008. Everyone got a mulligan. There will be a tremendous reckoning “written about for centuries”. That is the nature of cycles and cycles that were denied last time.
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