Eddie Murphy on SNL and Prop Bet

[The Shrink]

If you haven't heard yet the first 5 hosts are scheduled for next season of Saturday Night Live.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1166033629929254912

Of course, everyone is talking about Eddie Murphy's long awaited return to the show on December 21. He famously wanted nothing to do with the show ever since David Spade made a joke about him in 1995 during the Hollywood Minute segment of SNL's Weekend Update. Murphy had just put out a couple of movies that bombed so Spade showed a photo of Murphy and simply said: “Look, kids, a falling star! Quick, make a wish . . .”

https://www.salon.com/2015/10/20/dav...ay_night_live/

This pissed off Eddie something fierce. He finally returned to SNL for the 40th Anniversary of SNL in 2015 but it was very stilted and awkward. He wasn't funny at all and he basically just walked on stage and said 'sup.

But now, Eddie Murphy returns to SNL for real for the first time in 35 years and people are jacked up. Well, I should say mostly men over the age of 35 are excited. Personally, I can't wait. I'm a super fan of the show, having seen every episode since about 1990. I've been through all the ups and downs. Recently, the show has been bad and that has been reflected in the ratings. The cast next season will be mostly unchanged except Leslie Jones is leaving which I think will be addition by subtraction (I find her wildly unfunny and I think Lorne Michaels leaned on her one-note humour way too much).

Now for the prop bet. My friend and I are wagering on the tv ratings for the Eddie Murphy episode.

Here are some numbers for context: (first number in parentheses is ratings: % of households with tv watching the show; second number is share: % of households currently watching tv who watched the show)
-the highest rated episode in the past 11 years is Oct. 2008 (Josh Brolin/Adele) when Sarah Palin was on the show - (10.7/24)
-the highest rated show last season was May 4, 2019 (Adam Sandler/Shawn Mendes) (4.8/12)
-the highest rated show in 2017-2018 was January 27, 2018 (Will Ferrell/Chris Stapleton) (4.9/11)
-the highest rated show in 2016-2017 was February 11, 2017 (Alec Baldwin/Ed Sheeran) (7.2/18) *note that I couldn't find the ratings for the last 4 episodes, only average US viewers which was 10.4 M for Melissa McCarthy/HAIM on May 13, 2017

Some potential confounds: December 21 is going to be a Saturday during X-mas party season, is Eddie Murphy still relevant?, do people just rewatch clips online the day after the show now?, who will be the musical guest? (imagine if they make it Eddie Murphy!)



So for the Eddie Murphy episode we have set the line at a 5.75 rating.

Would you bet over or under?

[Gookieheimowitz]

I am on the under . Not sure he is relevant anymore to people who watch the show. Guys our age who did watch the show will not watch it live . Easy Under for my opinion.

[BCR]

I’m likely on the under if anything. Murphy was elite top 10 gifted comedian in his time. I look at him like a musician that had this brief window where he was unreal and then is absolute shit. If guns and roses were a comedian. I can only speak to my own sensibilities, but I’d be totally disinterested. If I just happened to sit down and it was just starting, I’d watch. At that time of year I’d almost have to be at a party where it was on.

But I’m also someone who wouldn’t go see present day guns and roses if they were playing in my backyard. I might if twenty buddies were going and it was a night out and the show was merely an excuse to get together.

So as the target demographic, I’m not interested as far as enthusiasm. To the mechanics of the wager, that list strikes me as having dual appeal. Unless the musical guest has huge appeal to younger people, I’d think under given the current tv trends.

[ftpjesus]

If you haven't heard yet the first 5 hosts are scheduled for next season of Saturday Night Live.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1166033629929254912

Of course, everyone is talking about Eddie Murphy's long awaited return to the show on December 21. He famously wanted nothing to do with the show ever since David Spade made a joke about him in 1995 during the Hollywood Minute segment of SNL's Weekend Update. Murphy had just put out a couple of movies that bombed so Spade showed a photo of Murphy and simply said: “Look, kids, a falling star! Quick, make a wish . . .”

https://www.salon.com/2015/10/20/dav...ay_night_live/

This pissed off Eddie something fierce. He finally returned to SNL for the 40th Anniversary of SNL in 2015 but it was very stilted and awkward. He wasn't funny at all and he basically just walked on stage and said 'sup.

But now, Eddie Murphy returns to SNL for real for the first time in 35 years and people are jacked up. Well, I should say mostly men over the age of 35 are excited. Personally, I can't wait. I'm a super fan of the show, having seen every episode since about 1990. I've been through all the ups and downs. Recently, the show has been bad and that has been reflected in the ratings. The cast next season will be mostly unchanged except Leslie Jones is leaving which I think will be addition by subtraction (I find her wildly unfunny and I think Lorne Michaels leaned on her one-note humour way too much).

Now for the prop bet. My friend and I are wagering on the tv ratings for the Eddie Murphy episode.

Here are some numbers for context: (first number in parentheses is ratings: % of households with tv watching the show; second number is share: % of households currently watching tv who watched the show)
-the highest rated episode in the past 11 years is Oct. 2008 (Josh Brolin/Adele) when Sarah Palin was on the show - (10.7/24)
-the highest rated show last season was May 4, 2019 (Adam Sandler/Shawn Mendes) (4.8/12)
-the highest rated show in 2017-2018 was January 27, 2018 (Will Ferrell/Chris Stapleton) (4.9/11)
-the highest rated show in 2016-2017 was February 11, 2017 (Alec Baldwin/Ed Sheeran) (7.2/18) *note that I couldn't find the ratings for the last 4 episodes, only average US viewers which was 10.4 M for Melissa McCarthy/HAIM on May 13, 2017

Some potential confounds: December 21 is going to be a Saturday during X-mas party season, is Eddie Murphy still relevant?, do people just rewatch clips online the day after the show now?, who will be the musical guest? (imagine if they make it Eddie Murphy!)



So for the Eddie Murphy episode we have set the line at a 5.75 rating.

Would you bet over or under?

I did some pondering and Im gonna actually go with the over.. The go away Christmas Episode of SNL has a history of being hilarious compared to most others.. (To this day the Schwetty Balls skit is the best ever in the history of Christmas skits on SNL in my estimation).. I predict they go hard on that episode to make the Christmas episode special in some way.. I could actually see them pulling a stunt where they get Billy Bob Thorton for a cameo as Bad Santa and Eddie is in the part of the black midgets spot as his accomplice potentially.. SNLs ratings have been on a decline due to a variety of things not the least is the wholesale obsession with Trump and having Baldwin on to play Trump repeatedly in skits which became a turn off not only for Trump supporters but I believe just avg fans of the show who felt like they were beating a dead horse into the ground with the same tired extended skit over and over it stopped being funny all together.. I know its probably bad to make this comparison but Im afraid SNL is falling victim to the same issue that's plaguing WWEs Pro wrestling storylines an old tired figurehead who keeps dredging up old shit and cant get out of his own way to let new ideas flow that aren't his.. Lorne Micheals was a genius and to a degree still is but Im beginning to think hes becoming a hiderance to his own show then a benefit and maybe needs to take a step back from the micromanaging and extreme hands on approach hes used for 40yrs..

[duped_samaritan]

If anyone is able to get to NYC, the lottery for SNL tickets for the entire season closes tomorrow.

To enter the lottery, send an email to snltickets@nbcuni.com. You may only send one email per person and all audience members must be at least 16 years of age. Submissions entered before or after the ticket lottery window will not be considered. Please tell us why YOU would like to be a part of our studio audience! If you are selected, you will receive two tickets for a random show date and time.

https://www.nbc.com/tickets/pages/ti...tudio-tour#snl

I've entered the past 5 years and only won tickets to a dress rehearsal once, but wasn't able to make it - I've heard it's a pretty cool experience though.

[Dan Druff]

I think you're right about the under. Honestly it all depends how much social media excitement surrounds this when it comes closer to the time.

I was a moderate SNL fan in the '80s, but haven't watched much of it since. I agree about Leslie Jones. Entire routine was, "Hey, look, I'm a tall, loud black woman!"

I also agree with ftpjesus that they got too obsessed with Trump, and pretty much became a campaign ad for Hillary. At one point, they arrogantly showed their version of Hilary getting excited and making comments that the election would be a cakewalk, as "Trump" said stupid things. Yes, there was plenty to make fun of with Trump, and SNL was right to lampoon him, but they so carefully stayed away from mocking Hillary for anything serious once she became the nominee. It was scared comedy writing. Hated it, and not just because I'm on the right.

I did give SNL props for the "white SJWs whining about Trump winning and how horrible life is, while two black guys mock them for their tone deafness and fake wokeness" skit. Whoever wrote that one did a great job, even if it was somewhat of a ripoff of a once-famous segment on "All in the Family".

[sonatine]

remember that anyone who lives in nyc has their own very personal history with trump, and that snl is, at its core, a nyc show.

[Zap_the_Fractions_Giraffe]

more like satur"gay" night live

[Dan Druff]

remember that anyone who lives in nyc has their own very personal history with trump, and that snl is, at its core, a nyc show.

In college, a dude I knew there was super-obsessed with SNL. This was just after I had stopped watching it regularly, and he was shocked when I told him that, being unable to fathom how someone could have lost interest in SNL.

"It's too east coast for me. I can't relate to it very well", I told him.

He was from New Jersey, so he didn't quite understand.

[OSA]

I was in the audience in January 2018. One of the best things I have ever done NYC related and one of the most memorable musical experiences I will ever have since I saw Troye Sivan.

[limitles]

Here's the rest of the story.....Murhpy just did Seinfeld's coffee show and basically admitted he has nothing at the moment. No act. No 20, 40 or 60 minutes. You can't do a set that's 10 or 15 years old. So he becomes a show host who is subject to the writers of the day. Very unlikely it spawns a second career for Eddie.

Eddie is brilliant. A true comedian who took the money and ran. Who wouldn't?

Tough bet but I wouldn't even consider it.

Also, I get the Spade joke....it was relevant but how much is he laughing now?

[limitles]

Here's the rest of the story.....Murhpy just did Seinfeld's coffee show and basically admitted he has nothing at the moment. No act. No 20, 40 or 60 minutes. You can't do a set that's 10 or 15 years old. So he becomes a show host who is subject to the writers of the day. Very unlikely it spawns a second career for Eddie.

Eddie is brilliant. A true comedian who took the money and ran. Who wouldn't?

Tough bet but I wouldn't even consider it.

Also, I get the Spade joke....it was relevant but how much is he laughing now?

[The Shrink]

Seems like this went over with its highest rating since Melissa McCarthy in 2017. 9.921 M people watched SNL with Eddie Murphy hosting. However, we set the line at 5.75 rating which is % of households with a TV that watched the show. The article below says it averaged a 2.5 rating. We should have just used number of viewers as the metric. In any event, it was a ratings hit.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/li...-years-1264722