6.4 yesterday, 6.9-7.1 today
6.4 yesterday, 6.9-7.1 today
8:30pm Friday night Vegas
That places Druff tucked in bed.
Be safe sweet prince
in before Druff posts about a 1990's earthquake experience that ends with him hooking up
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
The one yesterday woke me up and shook the Rio big time.
I knew exactly what it was as soon as I awakened. I jumped out of bed and had that hopeless feeling that there was no way out of the building in time, and that whatever was going to happen was just going to be my fate.
I did think about how the Rio was 30 years old, and how it was probably (but not certainly) built to withstand earthquakes. It did move as if it was on rollers. The motion of the Rio was different than anything I had felt before.
After it was over, I knew that aftershocks were likely, but that they would be of 5 magnitude most likely, and given that the epicenter was 125 miles from Vegas, I wasn't worried. I didn't blink when the expected aftershock (5.4) came at 4am this morning. I was still awake, and was texting to someone else in Vegas at the time. I told them not to worry, and that such an aftershock was expected.
What I didn't expect was a BIGGER quake today. I knew it was possible -- about a 9% chance that the supposed main quake of yesterday was just a foreshock of a bigger quake coming very soon. Indeed, that was the case this time. I've seen the numbers 6.9 and 7.1 thrown around. Not sure which is correct. The one yesterday was 6.4, which sounds similar, but it's a logarithmic scale, so 6.9 is about 5x as strong.
I could tell during the one today that it was bigger, and was pretty sure I was going to see 7 when I looked it up.
Unfortunately, it may not be over. There's about a 5% chance that THIS quake may also be a foreshock, and that an even bigger one (perhaps of 8 magnitude) could be coming.
The only bright side is that the epicenter is not very close to any big city. Searles Valley (the first quake) and Ridgecrest (the second quake) are very close to one another. Another large quake would probably (but not certainly) be in the same area, which would be very tough on Ridgecrest, but Las Vegas (the closest major city) and Los Angeles (second closest) would still mostly be okay. The Northridge quake of 1994 (6.7) was so bad because it was centered right in the populous San Fernando Valley of the city, plus the motion of the quake was unusually violent and damaging for a 6.7.
Southern California has avoided major earthquakes for the past 25 years -- since the Northridge quake. Prior to that, it experienced several large quakes in the prior 8 years -- Oceanside (5.8, 1986), Whittier (5.9, 1987), Superstition Hills/Elmore Ranch (6.1/6.5, 1987), Upland (5.7, 1990), Sierra Madre (5.6, 1991), Joshua Tree (6.3, 1992), Landers/Big Bear (7.3/6.5, 1992), and Northridge (6.7, 1994).
Since the Northridge quake in 1994, southern CA only had the Chino Hills quake of 2008 (5.5) and the LA Habra Quake of 2014 (5.1), both of which were mild.
There is some belief that these Ridgecrest quakes are starting up a whole new era of quakes in southern CA.
LA is donkdown.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
In the upcoming week:
11% chance there will be another magnitude 7 quake
9% chance there will be another quake bigger than the 7.1 today
50% chance there will be another magnitude 6 or higher quake
All would be in the general area of the two quakes we just had.
The San Andreas Fault is NOT expected to be affected by these.
Ridgecrest is not close to the San Andreas fault.
0:46
awaiting status report from jayjami
I am about 50 miles from the epicenter. My house should shook pretty good. It’s on stilts on the side of a hill. No damage. I was in San Francisco during the ‘89 quake. Seemed like that one shook a lot harder, even though it was the same magnitude and same distance away.Originally Posted by cleatus
Last edited by Jayjami; 07-08-2019 at 06:21 AM.
BUMP
Quake this morning in very similar location, also near Ridgecrest.
However, it was only 4.3, so we're talking 500-800x less power than the quakes in 2019.
This could again be a foreshock, so maybe this year's WSOP will be in for the same treat as three years ago.
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