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Thread: Scratchpad for 1st Inning Prop

  1. #21
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    The literal purpose of the FSWT is to has bets out.

    Welcome to talk specific shit here obv but I wouldn’t be upset if you talked it out there as well

  2. #22
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    rough outing tonight...

    NYY/BLT was the only one that I highlighted in the night slate that came in under...gotta love these small samples...

    thanks for the 5 inning DET/MIA, san...I fired on the first NO because simp's logic with those two teams made sense...
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 05-23-2019 at 11:51 AM.

  3. #23
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    1-2, -1.25 units Yesterday

    SF/Atlanta NO -135 1.35 to win 1win

    Cleveland/Tampa Yes -115 1.15 to win 1win

    Minnesota /LAA no -115 1.15 to win 1win

    3-0 +3 units today

    4-2 +1.75 total
    Last edited by simpdog; 05-23-2019 at 05:53 PM.

  4. #24
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Nice Simp.

    I was afraid I would have to do a reckoning someday. I went back to March 31st. I believe that was my first 1P.

    I believe that the information given in this form is true, complete and accurate so help me Druff

    7W-8L -2.15

  5. #25
    Bronze RS_'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    MLB Props - Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs - Score In 1st Inning - No +135
    Oof, the NO was at +145 at South Point.

  6. #26
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Baltimore/Colorado NO 1st inning run +180 **going for value here. way over pricedloss

    TB/Cleveland YES 1st inning run +140 **value here again IMO this is 50/50. Tampa scores lots of 1p on the road (and at home)win

    Toronto/SD NO 1st inning run -125win


    Let's go 3-0 like yesterday

    4-2 +1.75 total


    2-1 +1.4 today
    Total 6-3 +3.15

    EDIT: disclaimer for my picks -- I am going the super lazy route here and going off team data no pitchers at all (other than a quick glance here or there).
    Last edited by simpdog; 05-24-2019 at 08:19 PM.

  7. #27
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Yesterday was a getaway day for the league.

    Seemed like 5 games didn’t have both listed pitchers late last night. I took a night off.

    When I looked to handicap today’s games I felt empty. I like the process of 1P’s.

    Just took a quick look at Colorado Jeff Hoffman. No +185. I’m blind. Gonna take a deep dive into the minors. There has to be an upside.

    Wade Miley v Sale. These two met May 19th
    Hawt take. Sale is trending really sharp after rough start. Miley was met with contact by each Sawks batter in the 1st inning and he surrendered a run.

    Astros bats are sleepy.

    It’s a pick em Yes/No.

    Only 2 I looked at. Lotta work.

  8. #28
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    can I interest you in NO on beiber/snell (CLV/TB) at -137?

    snell 9IP 3.00 ERA 0.78 WHIP
    beiber 9IP 3.00ERA 1.00 WHIP

  9. #29
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    also lucchesi v thornton (SD/TOR) NO at -114

    lucchesi 9IP 0.00ERA 0.78 WHIP
    thornton 10IP 3.60ERA 1.70 WHIP

    thornton is 3-1 in his last 4...WHIP worries me...like playing with a bomb there...

  10. #30
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    keep posting your picks simp...very interested in seeing how your team approach does...wonder if this will unlock the value better than looking at pitchers does...

    you got nice value on CLV/TB where the pitching would probably have pushed you to NO...

  11. #31
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Simp is the best capper on this site over the past year.

    It just has to be said.

  12. #32
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Simp is the laziest capper on this site over the past year.

    It just has to be said.
    Fyp

  13. #33
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    7-9 -3.35 units. I’d be up over 10 units here if it weren’t for this crap.

    I’m beginning to lose heart. One more Rays vs Jays 1:10pm

    All numbers are 1st inning only

    Jays - Aaron Sanchez
    11IP ERA0.82 Whip1.27 H7 Walks7 S/O11 record1-10

    Rays - Yonny Chirinos
    This is easy -he’s been lights out as a follower and starter in the Rays whacky system. Numbers don’t work here.

    Aaron Sanchez has gotta look dirty to regular prop folk. The popular bet has been to autobet Tampa Bay YES - and that’s worked. So this should be opposite.

    Work me up an overnight Jersey Boys NO quote.


    If you like mashing buttons:
    Tigers Norris vs Orioles Gabriel Ynoa. NO

    Norris is lights out in 1st

    Ynoa is a new face - Look him up. He’s pitching to the Tigers. Any of us have a reasonable chance of blanking them one inning. Tigers are next to last on Simps team list.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-26-2019 at 09:59 PM.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    7-9 -3.35 units. I’d be up over 10 units here if it weren’t for this crap.

    I’m beginning to lose heart. One more Rays vs Jays 1:10pm

    All numbers are 1st inning only

    Jays - Aaron Sanchez
    11IP ERA0.82 Whip1.27 H7 Walks7 S/O11 record1-10

    Rays - Yonny Chirinos
    This is easy -he’s been lights out as a follower and starter in the Rays whacky system. Numbers don’t work here.

    Aaron Sanchez has gotta look dirty to regular prop folk. The popular bet has been to autobet Tampa Bay YES - and that’s worked. So this should be opposite.

    Work me up an overnight Jersey Boys NO quote.


    If you like mashing buttons:
    Tigers Norris vs Orioles Gabriel Ynoa. NO

    Norris is lights out in 1st

    Ynoa is a new face - Look him up. He’s pitching to the Tigers. Any of us have a reasonable chance of blanking them one inning. Tigers are next to last on Simps team list.
    DET/BLT NO +102
    TOR/TB NO LINE YET

  15. #35
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Thx GBCP

    I like it.

    Or could just blindly follow Simp like I’m s’posed to. Just don’t listen to him about the Stanley Cup. He hates the Bruins with a white hot passion.

  16. #36
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Tablet - MLB Props - Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles - Score In 1st Inning - No -105 L
    Contest notes:
    Listed pitchers D. Norris G. Ynoa must throw one pitch each for action


    Tablet - MLB Props - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays - Score In 1st Inning - No -110 W
    Contest notes:
    Listed pitchers A. Sanchez Y. Chirinos must throw one pitch each for action
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-27-2019 at 12:29 PM.

  17. #37
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sanlmar, I saw you took (and won) Cin/Pit to not score in first inning.

    Can you explain your thought process?

    I would have been afraid to do that with Kingham pitching.

  18. #38
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sanlmar, I saw you took (and won) Cin/Pit to not score in first inning.

    Can you explain your thought process?

    I would have been afraid to do that with Kingham pitching.
    That was a leak. I didn’t mean to post.

    I have been fading Kingham. Frustratingly, he has looked stronger in 1st than his numbers indicate. So I went with my experience vs. numbers

    Prolly a good live fade. I haven’t looked.

    So it was meant to be a private experiment. Not proud

  19. #39
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Pirates @ Reds - YES 1st inning run -170loss -1.7

    Cleveland @ Boston - NO -120 win

    Giants @ Miami - No -130 my fave of the day loss

    Blue Jays @ Tampa No - 135loss

    Mets @ Todgers Yes -135loss

    1-4 -4.7

    Total 7-7 -1.55


    **Again per usual I'm taking the lazy route of team based stats and totally ignoring pitchers, injuries, etc.
    Last edited by simpdog; 05-29-2019 at 04:42 AM.

  20. #40
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Simp doin work.

    I’ll take a look.

    Edit:
    Palm smacking forehead. I got zero insight on 1P’s. I tried some shit.

    This really is a big financial commitment to the Simpdog Blind Bet Formula which has been so successful.

    If I continue to use the Kelly Criterion for Simpdog plays I’m collectively betting a small used car.

    I need a “come-Jesus-moment” before I mash buttons.

    Alsooooo.... so interesting that Kershaw starts are 1P YES to score $ .... just a thing.

     
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      simpdog: just trying to play catch up
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-28-2019 at 09:53 AM.

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