*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

[MumblesBadly]

Druff,

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks would like to share more with you about tzedakah.

[blake]

538 gives biden a 99% chance of winning the democratic primary

[dwai]

538 gives biden a 99% chance of winning the democratic primary

[blake]

538 actually gave trump the biggest chance out of anyone in 2016.

also there's s pretty big difference between giving someone a 1 in 3.5 chance and 1 in 100

[VaughnP]

Can some of you sad, out of touch, delusional problem glasses wearing rubes compare the Biden and Hilldawg primary vote totals and spin that into a positive?

Clearly Biden is inspiring the masses. And if you think he will pass the smell test with black voters, not just hang on because of his association with Obama, once the process goes into full swing heads up against Trump, you're not just delusional, you're an actual idiot. They turned on "Kopmala" in a matter of weeks, and the "Creepy Joe" whisper campaign thing is going to hit unlike anything we've seen considering there is actual footage of him groping various children, having his hand slapped and pushed away even, as well as footage of him in general making women and children feel uncomfortable.

It's going to be hilarious. If this virus doesn't kill millions and continue to wreck the economy, it's going to be an Obama vs. McCain type of defeat.

[VaughnP]

Honestly, the Democrats best chance is probably somehow running Hillary again, but despite some of your short term memory issues, she was presented as the sensible alternative to Trump in the last election, a la Biden. And that didn't exactly work out.

[blake]

Can some of you sad, out of touch, delusional problem glasses wearing rubes compare the Biden and Hilldawg primary vote totals and spin that into a positive?

Clearly Biden is inspiring the masses. And if you think he will pass the smell test with black voters, not just hang on because of his association with Obama, once the process goes into full swing heads up against Trump, you're not just delusional, you're an actual idiot. They turned on "Kopmala" in a matter of weeks, and the "Creepy Joe" whisper campaign thing is going to hit unlike anything we've seen considering there is actual footage of him groping various children, having his hand slapped and pushed away even, as well as footage of him in general making women and children feel uncomfortable.

It's going to be hilarious. If this virus doesn't kill millions and continue to wreck the economy, it's going to be an Obama vs. McCain type of defeat.

your post suggests you think biden will win the election if he gets black people to turnout. am i right?

[VaughnP]

Can some of you sad, out of touch, delusional problem glasses wearing rubes compare the Biden and Hilldawg primary vote totals and spin that into a positive?

Clearly Biden is inspiring the masses. And if you think he will pass the smell test with black voters, not just hang on because of his association with Obama, once the process goes into full swing heads up against Trump, you're not just delusional, you're an actual idiot. They turned on "Kopmala" in a matter of weeks, and the "Creepy Joe" whisper campaign thing is going to hit unlike anything we've seen considering there is actual footage of him groping various children, having his hand slapped and pushed away even, as well as footage of him in general making women and children feel uncomfortable.

It's going to be hilarious. If this virus doesn't kill millions and continue to wreck the economy, it's going to be an Obama vs. McCain type of defeat.

your post suggests you think biden will win the election if he gets black people to turnout. am i right?

That is the only way he has a chance. It was probably as much as 4 to 1 Trump before this virus thing, but my honest opinion is that it's obviously much closer than that now.

However, I don't think Biden will be able to run a strong enough campaign to defeat Trump. Trump actually will have deep pockets for his campaign this time, and it's going to get extremely ugly for Joe. People are very off put by Biden as it is, and acting like the Bernie bros and youth in general won't hurt his campaign enough to lose key swing states is also another form of unwillingness to face reality. A huge block of the party is simply not going to turnout for a senile 77 year old white guy running on being the sensible Trump alternative. I am actively around all kinds of Democrat voters in multiple states, just like in 2016 where I kept reminding you idiot assholes that it was much closer than you people thought and that Trump was likely to win, and I'm telling you again this time that the hatred towards Trump has cooled significantly since then, while his base is somehow even more energized.

All things that I have seen personally point to it being an easy Trump win. The virus thing is the wildcard though.

[Dan Druff]

Dems are going to get the recession they asked for. There's already been too much disruption to the economy and the supply chain for us to weather this storm without at least a moderate recession.

The question remains how hard it hits, how long it lasts, and whether Americans blame it on Trump or on uncontrollable circumstances.

This coronavirus is a huge blessing for Democrats, who were otherwise very likely to lose to Trump again, and possibly lose the House as well.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

checked the odds on the one book that has these numbers...

in February trump was -190...now he's back down to -132...

[blake]

your post suggests you think biden will win the election if he gets black people to turnout. am i right?

That is the only way he has a chance. It was probably as much as 4 to 1 Trump before this virus thing, but my honest opinion is that it's obviously much closer than that now.

However, I don't think Biden will be able to run a strong enough campaign to defeat Trump. Trump actually will have deep pockets for his campaign this time, and it's going to get extremely ugly for Joe. People are very off put by Biden as it is, and acting like the Bernie bros and youth in general won't hurt his campaign enough to lose key swing states is also another form of unwillingness to face reality. A huge block of the party is simply not going to turnout for a senile 77 year old white guy running on being the sensible Trump alternative. I am actively around all kinds of Democrat voters in multiple states, just like in 2016 where I kept reminding you idiot assholes that it was much closer than you people thought and that Trump was likely to win, and I'm telling you again this time that the hatred towards Trump has cooled significantly since then, while his base is somehow even more energized.

All things that I have seen personally point to it being an easy Trump win. The virus thing is the wildcard though.

i think it's a coin flip, but my politics predictions have been awful.

remember that trump only won by 80,000 votes in swing states. that's a pretty microscopic number. if any black people turn out, biden has an extremely good chance of winning.

also, trump has a 0.0% chance of winning pennsylvania if biden is the nominee. not sure how that impacts the electoral roadmap, but i'll bet on that right now.

on the flip side, biden is likely to blurt out something about the coloreds or negroes at any given moment. so we'll have to see.

[dwai]

[VaughnP]

Someone post the "AR-14" clip of Biden, complete with him threatening a Michigan voter. There's just no way he holds it together. This guy has one foot in the nursing home.

[BCR]

I saw that Trump has dropped to .49 on predictit. I keep playing with that 270 to win interactive map and can’t Biden to 270. I can get him to 269, more likely 268 but that one vote in Nebraska was only 2% trump win, so a tie the republicans win.

That gives him Pa, Wisconsin, VA, MN, Michigan, NV, Co, NM and all the obvious states. I gave him NH despite that not being a sure thing imo. Clinton won by 3k votes there with it becoming a tax haven state and the Dem primary having meh turnout and the republican turnout huge to vote for a guy running virtually unopposed. It was as uninspiring as VA was inspiring for Dems. That said, it doesn’t matter much because he still needs to flip a larger state regardless of result there.



So it comes down to which of these states can Biden flip. NC, Az, Florida, or Ohio. If I squint and think of the tariffs I’ll put a prayer on Iowa, but Trump won by 10% and he leads hypothetical polls h2h against Biden when those usually break the other way. I think it’s safe to think Biden loses Iowa by 5 minimum.

All those rust belt states are kind of lumped together and they usually throw Ohio in there despite it being not close to the others. Trumps victory was minuscule and ranged from like 35kish in PA to razor thin margins which you could easily see flip with just a minor blip.

Ohio is a different beast. Daly saying Biden needs Ohio is problematic. I see NC, Az, and Florida as more flippable. Trump won Ohio by 8.13% and 450k thousand votes. Trump won Texas by 9% and that state is trending blue as Ohio trends away. A libertarian grabbed 170k votes, and assuming 2/3 break R this time around, that would be a 500k vote victory. I see no indication Trump has bled any votes, let alone a 500k vote margin away here. Trump won places like Georgia by 5%.

It’s possible this is why I’m so bearish on a moderate Democrat winning. I live in an atypical formerly swing state where he’s so fucking popular and it’s redder than shit in the south at this point. I see it as impossible in an election that isn’t a landslide anyway .

His margins were much smaller in the other 3 despite Florida being much bigger and North Carolina being not all that much smaller. A win in any of the 4 gives him the White House in a scenario he gets back the traditionally blue states. Which of those 4 do we think flips? I was leaning Arizona because I think Gabby Giffords husband helps him, but I don’t see it yet. Bernie was the default Hispanic candidate. So even with Kelly helping Biden, it doesn’t feel that winnable. We are kind of down to Florida and North Carolina.

This is if coronavirus is just a moderate problem that wanes off during the summer. It assumes the economy finds a bottom and just kind of sticks or has a small rebound. If it’s a plague and doesn’t wane and the economy doesn’t rebound and we are in a recession, clearly everything can be in play and anyone running against him can win. If it goes away, economy completely rebounds, I think Trump is a large favorite.

So assuming something in the middle, where is Biden getting the last few EV’s?

With Florida and NC as best shot imo, I think he has to choose a black VP from the south. All kinds of places he needs the black vote super motivated. I don’t see anyone motivated. He’s drawing 60 people to rallies. They are motivated to vote against Trump, but you need them waiting in line 8 hours motivated. All these states that he need to try and flip are run by republicans. They’re going to make it difficult.

Edited because I mentioned trump in first sentence and didn’t clarify I can’t get Biden to 270

[thesidedish]

I saw that Trump has dropped to .49 on predictit. I keep playing with that 270 to win interactive map and can’t get him to 270. I can get him to 269, more likely 268 but that one vote in Nebraska was only 2% trump win, so a tie the republicans win.

That gives him Pa, Wisconsin, VA, MN, Michigan, NV, Co, NM and all the obvious states. I gave him NH despite that not being a sure thing imo. Clinton won by 3k votes there with it becoming a tax haven state and the Dem primary having meh turnout and the republican turnout huge to vote for a guy running virtually unopposed. It was as uninspiring as VA was inspiring for Dems. That said, it doesn’t matter much because he still needs to flip a larger state regardless of result there.



So it comes down to which of these states can Biden flip. NC, Az, Florida, or Ohio. If I squint and think of the tariffs I’ll put a prayer on Iowa, but Trump won by 10% and he leads hypothetical polls h2h against Biden when those usually break the other way. I think it’s safe to think Biden loses Iowa by 5 minimum.

All those rust belt states are kind of lumped together and they usually throw Ohio in there despite it being not close to the others. Trumps victory was minuscule and ranged from like 35kish in PA to razor thin margins which you could easily see flip with just a minor blip.

Ohio is a different beast. Daly saying Biden needs Ohio is problematic. I see NC, Az, and Florida as more flippable. Trump won Ohio by 8.13% and 450k thousand votes. Trump won Texas by 9% and that state is trending blue as Ohio trends away. A libertarian grabbed 170k votes, and assuming 2/3 break R this time around, that would be a 500k vote victory. I see no indication Trump has bled any votes, let alone a 500k vote margin away here. Trump won places like Georgia by 5%.

It’s possible this is why I’m so bearish on a moderate Democrat winning. I live in an atypical formerly swing state where he’s so fucking popular and it’s redder than shit in the south at this point. I see it as impossible in an election that isn’t a landslide anyway .

His margins were much smaller in the other 3 despite Florida being much bigger and North Carolina being not all that much smaller. A win in any of the 4 gives him the White House in a scenario he gets back the traditionally blue states. Which of those 4 do we think flips? I was leaning Arizona because I think Gabby Giffords husband helps him, but I don’t see it yet. Bernie was the default Hispanic candidate. So even with Kelly helping Biden, it doesn’t feel that winnable. We are kind of down to Florida and North Carolina.

This is if coronavirus is just a moderate problem that wanes off during the summer. It assumes the economy finds a bottom and just kind of sticks or has a small rebound. If it’s a plague and doesn’t wane and the economy doesn’t rebound and we are in a recession, clearly everything can be in play and anyone running against him can win. If it goes away, economy completely rebounds, I think Trump is a large favorite.

So assuming something in the middle, where is Biden getting the last few EV’s?

With Florida and NC as best shot imo, I think he has to choose a black VP from the south. All kinds of places he needs the black vote super motivated. I don’t see anyone motivated. He’s drawing 60 people to rallies. They are motivated to vote against Trump, but you need them waiting in line 8 hours motivated. All these states that he need to try and flip are run by republicans. They’re going to make it difficult.

that's dish country. I infected their poker room with my trumpness BIGLY

[blake]

i have to say this again. you all aren't paying attention to what's happening in the philly suburbs if you think trump can beat biden here. we had county boards flip 100% blue in 2018 that haven't been democrat since the civil war. seriously.

biden routes trump here.

so when you're figuring out your electoral maps, keep that in mind.

[blake]

and trump won michigan by 11,000 votes or .2% of the overall vote.

michigan, like pa, has gone blue since then with a democratic governor and flipping two congressional seats blue.

how on earth could trump be considered a lock here? honestly, how is he not an underdog?

[BCR]

and trump won michigan by 11,000 votes or .2% of the overall vote.

michigan, like pa, has gone blue since then with a democratic governor and flipping two congressional seats blue.

how on earth could trump be considered a lock here? honestly, how is he not an underdog?

I edited that because I was writing on the phone and it was muddled. I gave him all those states minus Ohio.

[blake]

if the map is exactly like it was in 2016 but biden takes PA, wisconsin and michigan, that takes the dems over 270

trump could win ohio and florida and still lose

[thesidedish]

HWG chumps, an excuse to try to get rich 2nite

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