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Thread: *** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

  1. #2941
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Poll finally released in NV

    Sanders up by 7 points, 25-18 over Biden.

    The rest clustered from 10-13.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/p...finds-1957583/

     
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      MumblesBadly: Time to load up on more money on Biden!!!

  2. #2942
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Poll finally released in NV

    Sanders up by 7 points, 25-18 over Biden.

    The rest clustered from 10-13.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/p...finds-1957583/
    Your bet needs Joe to make it through the debate and the run up without saying anything stupid. It would help if Pete or Steyer had a very bad night and bled out a little Joes way. You need Joe to ever perform to his polls. It’s still a name recognition poll looking at it. I’m going to have to see Joe actually win something ever to believe it. Bernie looks hard capped right now. Not because he’s running against 10 people. I’m just not seeing 50k rallies like last time around. He just isn’t up against Hillary so he seems better positioned, but I don’t think he’s nearly as popular as last go around.

  3. #2943



     
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      sonatine: tour de force

  4. #2944
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Poll finally released in NV

    Sanders up by 7 points, 25-18 over Biden.

    The rest clustered from 10-13.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/p...finds-1957583/
    Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. Caucuses in general are hard to poll because turnout is much lower compared to a primary, it's hard to predict 'likely voters'. Iowa is also difficult, but Nevada even more so because turnout is even lower but the unions organize and make sure they're able to get off from work to go vote together (plus peer pressure since it's not a hidden ballot).

    Also, pollsters have to predict 2nd round voting.

  5. #2945
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Poll finally released in NV

    Sanders up by 7 points, 25-18 over Biden.

    The rest clustered from 10-13.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/p...finds-1957583/
    Your bet needs Joe to make it through the debate and the run up without saying anything stupid. It would help if Pete or Steyer had a very bad night and bled out a little Joes way. You need Joe to ever perform to his polls. Itís still a name recognition poll looking at it. Iím going to have to see Joe actually win something ever to believe it. Bernie looks hard capped right now. Not because heís running against 10 people. Iím just not seeing 50k rallies like last time around. He just isnít up against Hillary so he seems better positioned, but I donít think heís nearly as popular as last go around.
    A lot of the people who voted for Bernie in 2016 weren't really big fans of Bernie. They just hated Hillary so they voted for Bernie as a protest vote.

  6. #2946
    No one's in first, who's on second.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  7. #2947
    I knew Nevada was a caucus, but I forgot it when druff posted that poll. Does it have the same 15% viability threshold? If so, anything crazy can happen. Thatís a much better bet in a caucus where joe will benefit from others not having viability. I doubt a favorite or anything, but probably a decent bet. That caucus scenario definitely didnít help Bernie last time and heís rarely someoneís second choice other than a few stragglers.

  8. #2948
    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPIT this View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Poll finally released in NV

    Sanders up by 7 points, 25-18 over Biden.

    The rest clustered from 10-13.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/p...finds-1957583/
    Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. Caucuses in general are hard to poll because turnout is much lower compared to a primary, it's hard to predict 'likely voters'. Iowa is also difficult, but Nevada even more so because turnout is even lower but the unions organize and make sure they're able to get off from work to go vote together (plus peer pressure since it's not a hidden ballot).

    Also, pollsters have to predict 2nd round voting.
    This is just a 1st round poll. 2nd round predictions arent a thing here

  9. #2949
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I knew Nevada was a caucus, but I forgot it when druff posted that poll. Does it have the same 15% viability threshold? If so, anything crazy can happen. Thatís a much better bet in a caucus where joe will benefit from others not having viability. I doubt a favorite or anything, but probably a decent bet. That caucus scenario definitely didnít help Bernie last time and heís rarely someoneís second choice other than a few stragglers.
    Yes, same dealio. That's why that Nevada poll isn't too bad for Biden, even though he's -7 to Sanders. Klob, Butt, and Steyer may not be viable in a majority of precincts. Not a lot of people have Bernie as their second option.

  10. #2950
    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    this guy is flatout buying a nomination like an absolute god
    If the nomination can be bought then why is Steyer doing so terribly?

    The billions help of course, but he's got something to say and something to offer otherwise he'd be DOA like Tom.

     
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      BCR: You can pull out a lot more stops with 61.8 billion compared to 1.6.

  11. #2951

     
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      MumblesBadly: Stop-and-pitch is constitutional, dammit!

  12. #2952
    Quote Originally Posted by SPIT this View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I knew Nevada was a caucus, but I forgot it when druff posted that poll. Does it have the same 15% viability threshold? If so, anything crazy can happen. Thatís a much better bet in a caucus where joe will benefit from others not having viability. I doubt a favorite or anything, but probably a decent bet. That caucus scenario definitely didnít help Bernie last time and heís rarely someoneís second choice other than a few stragglers.
    Yes, same dealio. That's why that Nevada poll isn't too bad for Biden, even though he's -7 to Sanders. Klob, Butt, and Steyer may not be viable in a majority of precincts. Not a lot of people have Bernie as their second option.
    Yeah, heís going to need some back room deals with other Dems if heís only at 17 come caucus day, as that would mean he isnít going to be viable anywhere outside the black precincts himself without some help. That is going to be a shitshow

    Bloomberg opened up shop here in the rust belt. My dad told me he drove by his office today and it had signs saying heís an oligarch.After I got off the phone I realized I didnít ask him exactly what he meant. I donít know if he meant like on the building itself or adjoining properties off his site Should be interesting. Iíll have to run by it .

  13. #2953
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    this guy is flatout buying a nomination like an absolute god
    If the nomination can be bought then why is Steyer doing so terribly?

    The billions help of course, but he's got something to say and something to offer otherwise he'd be DOA like Tom.

    the 6 minute marks gets really good. he goes on about steyer that he looks both old and young and puts up a pic of jackie chan and calls him the black jackie chan.

    lulz squared

    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  14. #2954
    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    this guy is flatout buying a nomination like an absolute god
    If the nomination can be bought then why is Steyer doing so terribly?

    The billions help of course, but he's got something to say and something to offer otherwise he'd be DOA like Tom.
    you may have a point but i donít think Steyer is spending what Bloomberg is.

    Iím in the Philly area and i canít recall seeing a Steyer commercial, but Iíve seen a million Bloomberg ones.

    what really surprised me was his commercials on the environment. he was hammering home the point that he closed a bunch of coal mines and heís going to keep on doing it. it surprised me a little cause it was seen as a gaff when Hillary said the ďweíre going to put a lot of coal miners out of businessĒ line, but Bloombergís like fuck it, this is what Iím running on and i donít care what West Virginia thinks.

  15. #2955
    Steyer is only spending in the early states, where as bloomberg is spending nationally. If you lived in NV or SC, you'd be seeing a lot of Steyer commercials.

  16. #2956
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    I honestly believe Bernie bros are driving down Bloomberg's line on Predictit while Bloomberg is driving up his own line on actual sportsbooks.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs


  17. #2957
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    wut kind of an idiot would pick stacy abrams as their vp?

    ditto for i don't even know who the fuck nina is


    wut a train wreck
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  18. #2958
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    lol predictit... i just sold $26 worth of bernie for pres shares and i literally moved the line and now i cant sell the rest.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs


  19. #2959
    Platinum duped_samaritan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I love all the overreactive political geniuses

    Really Druff.

    Really...

  20. #2960
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    wut kind of an idiot would pick stacy abrams as their vp?

    ditto for i don't even know who the fuck nina is


    wut a train wreck
    Sheís a better candidate than any of them. Sheís a gifted speaker and smart lady. Not exactly photogenic, but Pete should get down on his knees like heís blowing his husband and beg her, as sheís one of a handful of people in the country that may get him above single digits among black voters. Amy could use her also. Fuck, sheíll get multiple offers.

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