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Thread: Scratchpad for 1st Inning Prop

  1. #1

    Scratchpad for 1st Inning Prop

    Threadís purpose is to eliminate some of that sanlmar clutter in Stupidity Wagering.

    Other folks good stuff scrolls off into oblivion.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    aight im on to tomorrow...

    Like it
    Castillo (CIN) v. davies (MLW)…

    Castillo 10IP 2.70ERA 1.20 WHIP...Castillo gave up 2 in his last outing vs CHC...other than that he's been pretty clean
    davies 9IP 1.00ERA 1.22 WHIP

    add in the fact we have 1PM game after a night game, I like this one...

    Like it
    montas (OAK) v. Rodriguez (CLV)

    montas 9IP 1.00ERA 0.67 WHIP
    rodriguez 5IP 0.00ERA 0.00 WHIP

    Strailly is a gas can. It’s the Yankees he pitching to as well
    cc (NYY) v. straily (BLT)

    cc 7IP 1.29ERA 0.43 WHIP
    straily 7IP 2.57ERA 1.00 WHIP...1-2 in his last 3...

    Scherzers #’s are what they are. I’ll gamble
    do you feel lucky game?
    Scherzer (WSH) v. deGrom (NYM)

    Scherzer 10IP 9.00ERA 1.80 WHIP...last year Scherzer was 33IP with a 1.90 ERA and 0.91 WHIP...this year his K numbers are roughly the same...1.36/inning last year, 1.34/inning this year...his ERA/WHIP numbers are up pretty decently from last year, but his FIP and xFIP are the lowest they've been since he's been with the nats...still a little early for prices, but like this one as a regression to the mean play...
    EDIT: just looked and his BABIP this year is 0.363 which is obviously fucking insane and should start to regress bigtime...

    deGrom 9IP 0.00ERA 0.56 WHIP

    Thumbs up for the Coles
    Irvin (PHL) v. hamels (CHC)

    Irvin 2IP 0.00 ERA 0.00 WHIP...sample size...
    hamels 9IP 1.00ERA 0.89 WHIP
    Good work

    I like them all. The prices will be interesting

    We got a split today
    Dodger Yes W
    Cubs No L
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 09:43 PM.

  3. #3
    beat me to it lol

    here are my early lines for those plays:

    CIN/MLW NO +100
    OAK/CLV NO -103
    BLT/NYY NO +110
    NYM/WSH NO -134
    PHL/CHC NO LINE

  4. #4
    aight san, indulge me on this shit since my stats knowledge is fucking shit...

    just using CIN/MLW as an example...Castillo has allowed runs in 2 of his 10 first innings based on the fact he allowed 2 last time out and he's allowed 3 overall...davies has allowed runs in 1 of his 9 first innings...

    so im saying that their totally probability for this is 31%, correct? this is additive probabilities here, correct?

    so basically you're giving me even money on a 69% shot...seems like we're printing here...

  5. #5
    Yes

    May I ask what book are you using? These numbers are amazing. You may have something here

    Back in the 1P days Simpdog had a very special book too. Simp is a foreigner. Kid was minting what seemed like 20% more than me.

    Maybe it’s a promotion.

    I kinda hate the Mets Wash price. Public Scherzer love where the numbers don’t warrant it. It’s the one play I almost nixed

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Yes

    May I ask what book are you using? These numbers are amazing. You may have something here

    Back in the 1P days Simpdog had a very special book too. Simp is a foreigner. Kid was minting what seemed like 20% more than me.
    those are just DK overnights in NJ...

    glad to see you like all that I do...NYY/BLT was the only one I was a bit non-committal on...ill stay away from that one...

    you talk about lines, I don't really care about max's struggles, he's still dominant against the advanced metrics...his hard hit rate is up, ill concede that...but deGrom/Scherzer at like -130? I mean, I don't get it...

  7. #7
    Cancel Scherzer

    I hated NYY. Strailly gas can

    I misspoke. I was feeling the decisions were clear cut

    Sorry. I need to be more careful.


    Scherzer was a gamble - I could live with it if you fired. Strailly should be avoided imo
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 09:59 PM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Cancel Scherzer

    I hated NYY. Strailly gas can

    I misspoke. I was feeling the decisions where clear cut

    Sorry. I need to be more careful.
    you don't like max in that spot? seems like a good spot against a bottom 25% first inning lineup...

    I just think im gonna get that mean regression on his first inning performance...might as well do it when I have an uber stud on the other side too...you could probably talk me outta it in the 170s, but 130 just seems so fucking cheap...

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Cancel Scherzer

    I hated NYY. Strailly gas can

    I misspoke. I was feeling the decisions where clear cut

    Sorry. I need to be more careful.
    you don't like max in that spot? seems like a good spot against a bottom 25% first inning lineup...
    The 1P #’s are what they are. Last outing walks and early HR. I am inclined just to play the numbers and not try to anticipate regression one way or another.

    I flipped a coin and approved the No but not at that price Tbh


    When I trade stocks, I wait for confirmation of a break out for instance. I’ll give up a little profit to lessen risk associated with failed breakouts (breakdowns) It’s an insight into my nit approach to life

    I listen to people talk xFip vs ERA and regression. Good luck betting ahead of the actual.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 10:09 PM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post

    you don't like max in that spot? seems like a good spot against a bottom 25% first inning lineup...
    The 1P #ís are what they are. Last outing walks and early HR. I am inclined just to play the numbers and not try to anticipate regression one way or another.

    I flipped a coin and approved but I hate the juice. Tbh


    When I trade stocks, I wait for confirmation of a break out for instance. Iíll give up a little profit to lessen risk associated with failed breakouts. Itís an insight into my nit approach to life
    nah I hear ya and don't disagree...I hate making exceptions because it's a slippery slope, but it's one of the best in the game and his advanced metrics look good...deGrom on the other side pushed me over the edge...

  11. #11
    Twins are a fucking monster. Has to be said

    Multitasking but I swear I saw +425 down 2

    I’m betting them one way or another every day

    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 924 MINNESOTA TWINS/LOS ANGELES ANGELS UNDER 5Ĺ -115 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS W

    Enjoy the kibitzing. I gotta let you go, as they say

  12. #12
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    It's too bad Carlos Martinez isn't still starting, because he was a lock to give up runs in the first inning.

  13. #13
    finally got a line on PHL/CHC NO +128...sure youll like that one san...

  14. #14
    My bad
    Last edited by simpdog; 05-22-2019 at 08:28 AM.

  15. #15
    I'm going a different route here. Team based, not pitcher . I know bad idea, but I'm interested to see how it does compared to the pros (San/GBCP)

    Det/Miami no -120 Loss
    1.2 to win 1

    Tex/Seattle yes -175 Win
    1.75 to win 1

    Reds/Brewers yes +105 Loss
    1 to win 1.05

    1-2, -1.25 units
    Last edited by simpdog; 05-23-2019 at 12:14 PM.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I'm going a different route here. Team based, not pitcher . I know bad idea, but I'm interested to see how it does compared to the pros (San/GBCP)

    Det/Miami no -120
    1.2 to win 1

    Tex/Seattle yes -175
    1.75 to win 1

    Reds/Brewers yes +105
    1 to win 1.05

    0-0, +0.00 units
    lol, you're giving me too much credit simp...let me go on a run like you did with the 1Ps and ill take the pro status...

    so are you just looking at this?

    Name:  1sts.PNG
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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    finally got a line on PHL/CHC NO +128...sure youll like that one san...
    Wind blowing out now and the total moved up a bit from last night. We don’t know what the wind will be later. Might be some value under at some point. I think Wrigley wind is getting too public. I’m a tad dismissive as a reflex

    Having said that, we have a 10.5 and we are betting NO run 1st. We are special, aren’t we. But we are getting rewarded.

    MLB Props - Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs - Score In 1st Inning - No +135

    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    MLB Props - Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Score In 1st Inning - No +105 L

    MLB Props - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers - Score In 1st Inning - No -125 W
    Disgusting line.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Simp took
    Det/Miami no -120

    Interesting, as I too that game independently @

    978 Miami Marlins/Detroit Tigers under 5 -121 for 1st 5 Innings

    He’s doing team and I’m sticking to the numbers which I think is a decent sample. It’s prolly gutlessness masked as discipline. Let look:

    Urena
    IP9 Hits14 Walks3 SO6 ERA8 Whip1.89 4-5 1-3

    Texas/Seattle. I see the 12 total
    Chavez is an opener today. He did it once before and threw a clean inning. We will see. It’s a stiff price.

    Love the takes guys. Nobody is opposite yet. Let’s see how it rolls out
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-22-2019 at 10:29 AM.

  18. #18
    Christ rodriguez walked the world, finally got an easy ground ball for a double play and ramirez fucking booted it...

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Routine double play punted. Wow

  19. #19
    Well, early chop and no juice lost.

    Bit of a bad beat.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Well, early chop and no juice lost.

    Bit of a bad beat.
    yup...that CLV one hurts...if a bet loses, no biggie, but 2 runs scored without a hit is a little twist of the ol' knife...

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