*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

[nightmarefish]

Maybe Hillary is the Russian asset, would be genius if so.

[sonatine]

anthropomorphic aoc wearing a dog collar is my new fetish.

[MumblesBadly]

It ain't like they don't deserve it.

The Russian's have been meddling in our elections since at least 1960. To describe Tulsi and Jill Stein as Russian assets is another example of Hillary C's inability to take responsibility for her own failures.

If Gabbard and Stein are Russian assets then so was Jack Kennedy.

For the historical record, the US has “meddled” in Central American elections since the Panama Canal was built.

Actually, I was incorrect in my rep comment reply. Because the US got involved in the late stages of the Haitian Revolution in the early 1800s, but in a way that financially impoverished the Haitian government for the rest of the century in order to keep it from becoming an example of a successful democratic former-slave-colony nation.

[TheXFactor]

Maybe Hillary is the Russian asset, would be genius if so.

Bill & Hillary Clinton sold their souls for cash a long time ago.

Did the Clinton Foundation accept money from Russia?

Did Bill Clinton's Billionaire friends accept money from Russia?

Did Hillary Clinton's election campaign accept money from Russia?

[sonatine]

quantify the results if youre trying to define quid pro quo on a moral spectrum.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1185674684806946817

[OSA]

My name is Michael Westen, and I used to be a spy.

[sonatine]

[TheXFactor]

If Tulsi Gabbard campaigns in a bikini, she will get a lot more votes.

[Dan Druff]

So I've decided to hammer Biden at 4-to-1 because I think that's big value.

Most online books have him at about that, which means I don't have to hassle with awful Predictit and its brutal fees.

I feel it's a 3-person race, and to be honest, it's probably more of a 2-person race (Biden vs Warren).

I feel Warren should be about even money, Biden should be a moderate dog (maybe +150), Bernie a big dog, and the rest a huge dog.

Warren's advantages over Biden are that she has the momentum, is more likely to pick up Bernie supporters if he drops out, and is a more exciting candidate than Biden. She also comes off as sharp, while Biden comes off as old/confused.

Biden's advantages are his huge edge in the black community, plus moderate Democrats greatly prefer him.


There are two things to understand regarding the Democratic Primary:

1) It's not a winner-take-all for states. It's proportionate, though a candidate must receive 15% minimum of that state's votes in order to get any delegates (this 15% factor is unlikely to affect either Warren or Biden).

2) Superdelegates have seen their power somewhat degraded in 2020, as compared to previous election. Now they are only allowed to vote on the candidate if nobody emerges with the majority of delegates from the normal voting process. Previously, they voted along with the rest of the delegates, which caused controversy in 2016 after Hillary Clinton locked up most of them early, and bragged about it.

While very few Democratic candidates have failed to earn the majority of regular delegates, it has happened in modern history. Walter Mondale failed to score a majority, thanks to an incredibly close race with Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson acting as third-candidate majority spoiler. Mondale was pushed over the top by the superdelegates.

However, it's important to note that the superdelegates actually have more power in the case of a primary without a strong enough frontrunner to score a majority. This is because they suddenly have the nomination in their hands once a majority fails to occur from the regular delegates, and they can decide to coalesce together in favor of certain candidates they want.

I'll give you an example:

Let's say the percentages end up as follows: Warren 38, Biden 30, Sanders 23, others combined 9.

Under the old system, provided Warren had roughly an equal or greater number of superdelegates to Biden and Sanders, this would push her over 50% to win.

Under the current system, superdelegates can start making behind-the-scenes deals regarding where they throw their support. For example, if Biden agrees to make Sanders his VP, some of the Sanders superdelegates can offer to change their expected vote, and go along with Biden, thus pushing him over 50% instead of Warren. Sure, there would be a lot of outrage and anger over this, but it could occur.

Anyway, looking at 2020, one thing for certain is that the DNC still hates Bernie, and he's going to have a hard time scoring many superdelegates. This leaves him at a huge disadvantage (just like he had in 2016), where basically he's unlikely to be the candidate unless he wins the majority of regular delegates, which ain't happening.

This is why Bernie should be considered a bigger dog in this race than you think he is.

But Bernie also might stubbornly stay in the race for a long time, thus causing neither Warren nor Biden to get that majority, and leaving it up to the superdelegates.

Who is the favorite right now among the superdelegates? I don't know. But it's something to watch.

Anyway, I think 4-to-1 for Biden is a steal at this time. Realistically, it's going to be him or Warren, and neither is a clear frontrunner right now.

[sonatine]

i think biden was a front runner until his son decided for exactly no discernable reason to do that interview. its gonna be warren or bernie. id love it to be bernie. he's genuine and sincere and he wants to unfuck peoples lives. thats his gig. id gladly pay more taxes if the money went to his agendas.

but im not going to throw a fuckin fit if its warren, thats for sure.

biden's a fucking wreck but hed still be an improvement, but honestly i dont consider him any sort of favorite over trump on the boards. i liked stable, focused biden because he could absolutely son trump from bell to bell in any format. but this biden is shook and forgetting words and shit and just makes me nervous.

[Salty_Aus]

I kinda like Bernie, but his poor health has killed any chance he had.
Seems to be a genuine, passionate fellow.
Bernie is finished.

Warren is the clear front runner.
She's smart, and appears very capable.
The Pocahontas stuff is not a huge liability.

Biden is tainted goods. He'll be happy to run for VP.

Hillary is the unknown, you can't kill the evil whore.
We all know Putin hates her, but I think he's a little scared of her!
She'll run again, not this time. IMO

Warren in a canter.

[1marley1]

#BerniesBack

[TheXFactor]

Democratic voter poll October 18th 2019

Biden 31%
Warren 21%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 7%
O'Rourke 2%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%

Half the field should drop out by the next debate.

It looks like it will be a fight between Biden and Warren.

Bernie's numbers actually went down after AOC endorsed him.

[Dan Druff]

Biden is +500 on Betonline right now for Dem primary.

You can bet up to $500. You should totally go do this. Great value.

[OSA]

i think biden was a front runner until his son decided for exactly no discernable reason to do that interview. its gonna be warren or bernie. id love it to be bernie. he's genuine and sincere and he wants to unfuck peoples lives. thats his gig. id gladly pay more taxes if the money went to his agendas.

but im not going to throw a fuckin fit if its warren, thats for sure.

biden's a fucking wreck but hed still be an improvement, but honestly i dont consider him any sort of favorite over trump on the boards. i liked stable, focused biden because he could absolutely son trump from bell to bell in any format. but this biden is shook and forgetting words and shit and just makes me nervous.

I was at a bar and overheard someone say exactly that. A few sentences later he was asked what he does for a living and said he was a freelance artist. Its not the first time I have heard something similar. It seems the people that are in favor of this are the ones that make zero money or very modest amount. Easy to give away other people's money.

[SPIT this]

It seems the people that are in favor of this are the ones that make zero money or very modest amount. Easy to give away other people's money.

I hate when people try to leach off other people.

Unrelated: When is the gofundme to have people pay for your next vacation going to be up?

[abrown83]

Druff,

I can't believe how -EV of a play you are making on the Biden bets. It actually hurts me personally to know you would do this.

You are only considering the win side of the equation.

What about the losing side of the bet?

Let's say you had a stop loss at $.10 on PredictIt.

So you have picked up another 50% EV, which significantly outweighs the PredictIt fees.

At this point the only people I see winning the nomination are:

Booker
Mayor Pete
Tom Steyer
Klobuchar
Clinton

November will be telling, but I think Pete is going to win Iowa.

One of these second tier candidates is going to get hot in the weeks leading up to Iowa, if it's not Pete I am guessing it will be Booker or Klobuchar (both are better candidates than Biden and if they can get his support they could tidal wave the nomination).

[tony bagadonuts]

At this point the only people I see winning the nomination are:

Booker
Mayor Pete
Tom Steyer
Klobuchar
Clinton

[MumblesBadly]

Biden is +500 on Betonline right now for Dem primary.

You can bet up to $500. You should totally go do this. Great value.

How much have you put on this position?