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Thread: *** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

  1. #861
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Druff,

    I can't believe how -EV of a play you are making on the Biden bets. It actually hurts me personally to know you would do this.

    You are only considering the win side of the equation.

    What about the losing side of the bet?

    Let's say you had a stop loss at $.10 on PredictIt.

    So you have picked up another 50% EV, which significantly outweighs the PredictIt fees.

    At this point the only people I see winning the nomination are:

    Booker
    Mayor Pete
    Tom Steyer
    Klobuchar
    Clinton

    November will be telling, but I think Pete is going to win Iowa.

    One of these second tier candidates is going to get hot in the weeks leading up to Iowa, if it's not Pete I am guessing it will be Booker or Klobuchar (both are better candidates than Biden and if they can get his support they could tidal wave the nomination).
    You were right about Trump, but you're very wrong here.

    All five of the people you listed above have virtually no shot at winning the nomination.

    We are getting close to November. Even in the pre-social-media days of Presidential election, it was very uncommon for a candidate polling in the single digits on November 1 to win the nomination.

    Nowadays, it's really difficult, because we are exposed to so much more information than we used to be. If you aren't jumping out to the top few spots early, you're screwed. In the past, sometimes a candidate could rocket up into relevance late, because we didn't have enough exposure to them (or the other candidates, for that matter).

    Trump actually proved that in 2015/2016. For a long time, people were dismissing his early lead as just gimmickry, and assumed that he would wear out his welcome and a "real" candidate would take over. Even I fell into that trap. But it didn't happen. Trump proved that early momentum in the primary process is huge (as is constant exposure, which he got for free from the mainstream media which WANTED him to be the one facing Hillary... oops!)

    It's a 3-person race.

    Biden
    Warren
    Sanders

    For the reasons stated in my post, I think Sanders is already a longshot at this point.

    Biden +500 is yuuuuuuuuge value.

  2. #862
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Biden is +500 on Betonline right now for Dem primary.

    You can bet up to $500. You should totally go do this. Great value.
    How much have you put on this position?
    $500

    Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

    Predictit is idiotic with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.

  3. #863
    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    How much have you put on this position?
    $500

    Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

    Predictit is faggot with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.
    If I didn’t think that Joe Biden would be a mediocre candidate who would help to perpetuate the corporatist Democratic agenda if elected, I’d be routing for you to make bank on this position.

    P.S. Can’t Benjamin’s mom sign up and take a similar size position?

     
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      blake: rooting
      
      GrenadaRoger: "pedal stool"; "are chives"; and add "routing"; building a PFA voucabulary
      
      simpdog: routing
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

    https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

    https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all
    To be fair:

    1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

    2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

    3) All hot women are batshit.

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    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

    https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all
    True, but that no longer is a disqualification for being president.

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    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

    https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all
    wonkette.com, which of course in German means a whale's vagina.

    One of the few Ds that makes sense is batshit huh?

    Agree to disagree.

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    Gold SPIT this's Avatar
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    Also, I know of a very reliable book that Americans can get Biden at better than 10 to 1. Can't place a giant wager, but can get decent enough action on it. But I think I'll keep it to myself, especially given how dismissive Druff has been (no offense)

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nightmarefish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

    https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all
    To be fair:

    1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

    2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

    3) All hot women are batshit.

    please, by all means, point me to where/how?
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  10. #870
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    How much have you put on this position?
    $500

    Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

    Predictit is faggot with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.
    5-1 with practically a front runner is not good value, it's great value
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  11. #871
    Diamond blake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by nightmarefish View Post

    To be fair:

    1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

    2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

    3) All hot women are batshit.

    please, by all means, point me to where/how?
    giving one candidate the debate questions in advance seems like rigging it to me

     
    Comments
      
      MumblesBadly: Plus state party hijinks.

  12. #872
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    Oh god is fatotine acting up again honestly we apologize on our behalf not just for you

  13. #873
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    He's literally soooooo fat and old

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      Sanlmar: Gloves off.

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    Diamond TheXFactor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It's a 3-person race.

    Biden
    Warren
    Sanders

    For the reasons stated in my post, I think Sanders is already a longshot at this point.

    Biden +500 is yuuuuuuuuge value.
    Warren is the smartest one out of this group.

    Biden has too many brain farts.
    Sanders is too old and has health problems.

    Time to board the "Elizabeth Warren" train...




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  17. #877
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    Ya so were gonna need you to simmer it down sidefish

  18. #878
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    please, by all means, point me to where/how?
    giving one candidate the debate questions in advance seems like rigging it to me

    ohhhhhh yeah, thank you. i always assume they are referring to the 'they ignored the popular vote to choose hillary over bernie' rt.com conspiracy theory when i hear that, i forgot about the questions honestly.

    also doing that shit by email = pure boomer.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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  20. #880
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I just single-handedly moved the Betonline line on Biden from +500 to +450.

    Apologies to those of you tailing me whom haven't fired yet.

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