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Thread: *** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2019 Thread

  1. #101
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The players' union hates to talk about it, but it's honestly time for a complete restructuring of salaries in MLB.

    The productive young players are completely underpaid, while the free agents -- many over 30 -- are/were grossly overpaid.

    This needs to be fixed somehow.

    I realize that young, cheap players are the only way smaller market teams can compete, and there also has to be some incentive for teams to maintain a good farm system. Remember, for every super-productive guy making the Major League minimum, there are tons of others who got big signing bonuses out of high school, and flopped.

    However, I think there needs to be some kind of pay-for-performance type thing, where young phenoms are allowed to make more money before they're arbitration eligible, whereas the union concedes that the days of free agents getting huge contracts are over, save for a few really elite players.

    The current system is also unsustainable long term, as once the cable TV contracts expire, the teams will never get such lucrative contracts again, thus greatly diminishing the money they have to invest in payroll.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Still no signing of Harper or Machado.

    People are wondering why.

    Kris Bryant, perhaps seeing the writing on the wall when his own free agency comes up, is frustrated: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...-manny-machado

    So is Evan Longoria:

    A post shared by on

     

    https://instagram.com/p/BsyUZScney4/






    So why is this?

    My theory is that two factors are coming together to push teams away from Harper and Machado.

    The first is the general reluctance these days for teams to sink huge money into free agents for many years, even when they're only 26 like Harper and Machado. Teams are coming around to believe that developing young talent and then plugging holes with short contracts is the much more prudent way to go, as it carries far less risk.

    But there's more to it.

    The other problem is simply that neither player is a sure thing.

    Machado killed his own value while with the Dodgers, showing everyone how he doesn't care about hustling, and also didn't perform particularly well with the team, especially in the postseason. Machado was supposed to be a game changer for the Dodgers, but they seemed to win the NL in spite of him, not because of him. The other problem is that he's only a .282 lifetime hitter with a career .822 OPS. Good numbers, sure, but not spectacular. And while he could have extra value playing shortstop, the problem is that nobody knows if he's any good at the position. He sucked at SS with the Orioles, but was actually very good with the Dodgers. I think Manny's hustling issues and other potential baggage pulls down his value enough to where he's simply not all that exciting to bring into any squad, especially because his offensive numbers are good rather than great.

    Bryce Harper has battled recent injury problems AND has hit under .250 for two of the past three seasons. He seems to also choke under pressure (which also seems to plague Machado, from what we've seen). Harper also doesn't have a particularly easygoing personality, and there's some concern about his effect on the clubhouse. While I believe Harper has a lot more potential superstar upside than Machado, he's also a big injury risk for any team giving him huge money, and it's also hard to justify throwing $300m+ on a guy who hit sub-.250 in two of the past three years. Also, his defense has declined, for some reason.

    Bottom line is both of these guys are useful players, but they're not worth breaking the bank over at this point. If either were super-elite once-in-a-generation hitters, they'd be getting the gigantic paycheck they had hoped for. But both guys are flawed, and nobody wants to invest THAT much money on them.

    another factor is those mega deals that were given around 5-6 years ago have not aged well:

    *albert pujols, yikes...just turned 39, 3 days ago and the angels still owe him $87M over the next 3 years...
    *miggy Cabrera, beyond yikes...turns 36 in mid-april and the tigers are still on the hook for $154M over the next 5 years and possibly $184M or $214M over the next 6 or 7...the 6th year vests if he finishes top 10 in the MVP balloting in '23 and the 7th vests for the same thing in '24...
    *robby cano...this one has aged fairly well, but cano was on the fucking juice...let's see what happens over the next couple of years...

    you might be able to give Bryce a pass on the defense due to him not wanting to punt off his big paycheck by getting hurt busting his ass on D...amazing, thought for sure he was gonna get $40+/year after that MVP season...now it will be interesting if somebody breaks the bank for him at 30 per...can't imagine boras' ego not letting him get harper a bigger contract than Stanton...

    a HUGE if, is trout...that's a guy worth breaking the bank for...he's definitely a generational talent, not a clubhouse cancer, busts his ass, appears to be overall decent enough guy...only problem is him getting hurt before FA...said this many times in this thread, don't know why philly would go after harper/Manny when they could make that blowout offer to trout after 2020...

  3. #103
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    This came up after the HOF vote.

    In human history, fewer people have driven on the 405 than have scored an earned run off of Clayton Kershaw in the postseason.

  4. #104
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    It’s that time of year to make a bet that gives you joy and bragging rights all summer.

    Let’s start with our annual under ATM

    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Los Angeles Dodgers - Under +94˝ Wins -115

    This is my favorite by far. Ironically, Dodgers made them better with Puig, Kemp. Hot prospects will arrive soon. Pitching thumbs up.

    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Cincinnati Reds - Over +77˝ Wins -115

    Unfortunately for JSizzle the Royals are not a .500 team. They have maybe one legit MLB player. Worst team in MLB.
    Just noticed Kansas is misspelled in the prop. Royals prolly gave the Dodgers the second “s” in Kansas.


    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Kansa City Royals - Under +69˝ Wins -115

    Gimme some more boys.

  5. #105
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    There's the Pollock to the Dodgers I figured would happen. Now looking to add Realmuto as the double-dip there as opposed to one of Machado/harper. Smart IMO.

    Easy to see the Dodgers coming up with the best package for Miami also, being that the rumors were they wanted not just low-level prospects. 1 of their 2 good catching prospects, Pederson (if Miami wants him) + a pitching prospect. Miami probably wants Verdugo over Joc but who knows.

  6. #106
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    It’s that time of year to make a bet that gives you joy and bragging rights all summer.

    Let’s start with our annual under ATM

    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Los Angeles Dodgers - Under +94˝ Wins -115

    This is my favorite by far. Ironically, Dodgers made them better with Puig, Kemp. Hot prospects will arrive soon. Pitching thumbs up.

    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Cincinnati Reds - Over +77˝ Wins -115

    Unfortunately for JSizzle the Royals are not a .500 team. They have maybe one legit MLB player. Worst team in MLB.
    Just noticed Kansas is misspelled in the prop. Royals prolly gave the Dodgers the second “s” in Kansas.


    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Kansa City Royals - Under +69˝ Wins -115

    Gimme some more boys.

    With ya on the Royals and Reds.

    Really like Arizona under 77 and Toronto under 76.5 also. Neither of those teams should be making any significant FA signings of the big guys left. AZ still has a good rotation but that lineup is shit now. baby Vlad will have to produce like peak Arod at 3B for the Blue Jays to even sniff .500

    Orioles under 59 probably smart also. They are at step 0.5 of this rebuild, and even the 47 win season last year might not be the nut low. When the Astros bottomed out 8 years ago, they went 56 wins, 55, then 51 before getting up to 70 in 2014. I seriously could see Baltimore winning like 43 games this year.
    Last edited by gut; 01-24-2019 at 11:36 AM.

  7. #107
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Toronto end of last season was still prolific on offense. I’ll look into it.

    I made the Dodgers bet last night. Pollock is concerning. I didn’t know until you posted.

    The left side of infield is going to be a disaster. I’m calling it.

    Dodgers defense was bad last year. That’s my eye test not stats. They will be worse especially w/o Machado

    I will look at Arizona.

  8. #108
    Platinum GrenadaRoger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Mobile - MLB Regular Season Wins - Los Angeles Dodgers - Under +94˝ Wins -115

    This is my favorite by far. Ironically, Dodgers made them better with Puig, Kemp. Hot prospects will arrive soon. Pitching thumbs up.
    under 94 looks like a smart play...rest of the division looks so weak that Dodgers may ease up late in season and still win title...no other NLW team projects to more than 82 wins....biggest risk is San Diego prospects arrive a year earlier than expected
    (long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)

  9. #109
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    There's the Pollock to the Dodgers I figured would happen. Now looking to add Realmuto as the double-dip there as opposed to one of Machado/harper. Smart IMO.

    Easy to see the Dodgers coming up with the best package for Miami also, being that the rumors were they wanted not just low-level prospects. 1 of their 2 good catching prospects, Pederson (if Miami wants him) + a pitching prospect. Miami probably wants Verdugo over Joc but who knows.
    Here's the ESPN article about it: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...sign-s-dodgers

    I agree that it was smart to avoid Harper. Too many question marks surrounding the guy. Will he remain healthy? Why has he hit under .250 in two of the past 3 years?

    Just not enough certainty to give huge money to a guy like that. Would much rather give it to a guy like Mike Trout, whose success going forward seems more predictable.

    I'm not impressed with Verdugo. Maybe he'll break out and I'll look foolish, but to me he looks like one of those guys who is supposed to be good, but just won't be able to ever really crush Major League pitching.

    Peterson + an okayish pitching prospect or Verdugo + that prospect would be fine, in exchange for Realmuto.

    Pollock has plenty of an injury history himself, and he's 31. When he's healthy, he can really mash, but he's not durable at all.

    The Giants made a good signing in Pomeranz for $1.5 million. Could end up being useless, but for that type of money, a guy like him is worth the gamble, especially because he had a few good years prior to going to Boston, and was very highly regarded as recently as mid-2016. Big fan of the low-risk/high-upside signings.

    Not coincidentally, Farhan Zaidi was behind the Pomeranz signing, just as he was behind acquiring Chris Taylor and Max Muncy, two nobodies who have made big impacts on the Dodgers in the past 2 years.

  10. #110
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    I still think machado joins the white sox, but with word the Padres are in now also that would be a fun fit. Even if they give him 30m a year they have the budget room to do so, and will have rookie contract top prospects at 2B and SS for the next few years to even it out.

    White Sox are obviously in a similar spot, just at different positions. This might start becoming like the NFL where the new team-building strat is have a good QB on a rookie deal and then spend around that, in baseball it will be "spend big right before your big prospects get promoted".

  11. #111
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Realmuto about to go to the Phillies. In return, Miami will get top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez and catcher Jorge Alfaro, plus one of the following: Mickey Moniak, Alec Bohm, Adonis Medina, or Adam Haseley.

  12. #112
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Realmuto about to go to the Phillies. In return, Miami will get top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez and catcher Jorge Alfaro, plus one of the following: Mickey Moniak, Alec Bohm, Adonis Medina, or Adam Haseley.
    awful, awful deal for the phillies. who is their jackass GM?

    just doesn't make sense imo.

    why would you give up your #1 pitching prospect in this deal..including him is a really, really bad decision.....as for alfaro,,,,,, he might close the gap on realmuto as well being he's relatively young for a catcher .

    it's not like he was awful that needed an upgrade at this expense. alfaro calls a good game as well

     
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      DirtyErnie:
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  13. #113
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Realmuto about to go to the Phillies. In return, Miami will get top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez and catcher Jorge Alfaro, plus one of the following: Mickey Moniak, Alec Bohm, Adonis Medina, or Adam Haseley.
    awful, awful deal for the phillies. who is their jackass GM?

    just doesn't make sense imo.

    why would you give up your #1 pitching prospect in this deal..including him is a really, really bad decision.....as for alfaro,,,,,, he might close the gap on realmuto as well being he's relatively young for a catcher .

    it's not like he was awful that needed an upgrade at this expense. alfaro calls a good game as well
    the phillies GM is panicking. i just researched who he was and one reporter said he's on the hot seat and it's scorching. in that sense this trade makes sense. wtf does he care if sixto becomes and ace. it's possible he won't even be the GM for philly in 3 years. this is a short term upgrade with the bat.....

    scary part is you can't 100% say realmuto will outperform alfaro next year. i mean. it seems like it will and he could be a huge addition, but there is risk as well as plenty of equilibrium between the two....not even factoring losing ur #1 pitching prospect

    what's real funny is you can't rule out realmuto following in matt wieters trajectory path

    this move all but cements philly outbidding everyone for either harper or machado. i would be willing to bet money on it. does any sportsbook offer odds?
    Last edited by mulva; 02-07-2019 at 05:44 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  14. #114
    Gold GambleBotsSatire's Avatar
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    phillies should hire elton brand as their gm so they wont make these retarded trades in the future

  15. #115
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I agree the Philies gave up too much, especially given that they already had a decent 25-year-old catcher with further upside.

    Realmuto landing with the Phillies also makes the Dodgers look bad.

    As gut mentioned earlier, the Pollock signing was seen as the Dodgers mostly giving up on Harper, with the belief that Pollock/Realmuto would be a better (and less financially committing) addition than Harper alone.

    But the Dodgers didn't get Realmuto, and it leaves them with a rather unimpressive result for the offseason, assuming no more major moves occur.

    They lost Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp.

    They gained Joe Kelly, AJ Pollock, and Russell Martin.

    Seems like a net loss in production, unless AJ Pollock stays really healthy and rakes at the plate.

    They didn't save money, either. The Puig/Wood/Kemp trade saved them a whopping $4 million (not kidding), and netted them just two mid-level prospects.

    Joe Kelly got 3 years, $25 million. AJ Pollock got 5 years/$60m. They got Martin for 1 year and $3.6m.

    So they're paying substantially more than last year, and have a worse team, even ignoring the existing players whether they get better or worse.

    They're probably still winning the NL West because no opponent looks particularly good in that division.

    Also, Seager is coming back, and Buehler/Urias may both have big years on the mound (especially Buehler).

    Fans can ignore bad front office moves if the team still wins.

    Keep in mind that I don't always criticize the Dodgers front office.

    I loved the Kemp move last year. They shed a bunch of useless players in a salary swap for Kemp (who still seemed -- and was -- productive), PLUS got under the luxury tax via that trade, so they actually saved real money. Brilliant.

    This year they did the opposite. They traded away productive players for mostly shit in return, saved almost no money, and then made two multi-year signings which appear to be a bad deal.

  16. #116
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    And yes, I understand that Kemp/Wood/Puig were all in final years of their contracts, and none were likely to return, except maybe Kemp at a large discount.

    But still.. if you think you are contending (which, as a back-to-back World Series participant, you definitely are), then you need to play for now, which means you don't ship away 3 productive players unless you're getting something useful in return.

    And there was nothing useful.

    Almost no money savings, no useful existing players, and no top-rated prospects.

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post

    awful, awful deal for the phillies. who is their jackass GM?

    just doesn't make sense imo.

    why would you give up your #1 pitching prospect in this deal..including him is a really, really bad decision.....as for alfaro,,,,,, he might close the gap on realmuto as well being he's relatively young for a catcher .

    it's not like he was awful that needed an upgrade at this expense. alfaro calls a good game as well
    the phillies GM is panicking. i just researched who he was and one reporter said he's on the hot seat and it's scorching. in that sense this trade makes sense. wtf does he care if sixto becomes and ace. it's possible he won't even be the GM for philly in 3 years. this is a short term upgrade with the bat.....

    scary part is you can't 100% say realmuto will outperform alfaro next year. i mean. it seems like it will and he could be a huge addition, but there is risk as well as plenty of equilibrium between the two....not even factoring losing ur #1 pitching prospect

    what's real funny is you can't rule out realmuto following in matt wieters trajectory path

    this move all but cements philly outbidding everyone for either harper or machado. i would be willing to bet money on it. does any sportsbook offer odds?
    not arguing with what I bolded above, but if you are hitting the panic button then why are you letting harper and/or machado languish out there on the FA market...I still think he has to sign one of them, but there is that nagging thing in the back of my mind they want to try to make a run at trout...

    there is definitely an urgency to win here now...I don't think ill ever be able to get 10th row seats for a Friday game the same day for $10...those were the days...

  18. #118
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    In the meantime....

    MLB has decided that the term "disabled list" is offensive to handicapped people, so now it's called the "handicapable list".




    No, just kidding, but they did rename it to the "injured list" for that reason.

    Dumb.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-changes...004157739.html

  19. #119
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post

    the phillies GM is panicking. i just researched who he was and one reporter said he's on the hot seat and it's scorching. in that sense this trade makes sense. wtf does he care if sixto becomes and ace. it's possible he won't even be the GM for philly in 3 years. this is a short term upgrade with the bat.....

    scary part is you can't 100% say realmuto will outperform alfaro next year. i mean. it seems like it will and he could be a huge addition, but there is risk as well as plenty of equilibrium between the two....not even factoring losing ur #1 pitching prospect

    what's real funny is you can't rule out realmuto following in matt wieters trajectory path

    this move all but cements philly outbidding everyone for either harper or machado. i would be willing to bet money on it. does any sportsbook offer odds?
    not arguing with what I bolded above, but if you are hitting the panic button then why are you letting harper and/or machado languish out there on the FA market...I still think he has to sign one of them, but there is that nagging thing in the back of my mind they want to try to make a run at trout...

    there is definitely an urgency to win here now...I don't think ill ever be able to get 10th row seats for a Friday game the same day for $10...those were the days...
    the phillies need a professional hitter. they didn't have 1 player that could get a big hit last year..

    as for druffs comments on puig and pollock...pug really must have worn out his welcome. the dodgers seem to be going to an all white team. lol

    as for pollock ..ehhhhh. hes a hustling scrapper and prolly a great team guy. obv he's from connecticut. still,...his stats could fall off a cliff starting as early as this yr as well. pug was pretty talented player
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  20. #120
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I was just sitting here watching my NBA under head towards a loss, and I thought of something.

    A solution to the MLB free-agents-not-getting-signed problem.

    The issue isn't whether the owners will pay $30m/year for a star. They will.

    The issue is getting roped into 10-year deals where the star is still making $30m when they're 35-40.

    At the same time, the younger players are getting fucked to where some have super productive years in their rookie or sophomore season, yet they make under $600k, while some middling scrub gets $7-15m per year just because he's a free agent.

    So I think the following should be agreed to:

    - Nice increase in salary for any highly productive pre-arbitration player
    - Small bump in arbitration salaries
    - Free agents agree to short deals, in exchange for owners agreeing to spend good money on those short deals

    For example, maybe give Bryce Harper 2 years, $75m-$80m instead of 10 years, $350m.

    It's clear the owners don't want the 10-year mega deals anymore. The days of financially committing a fortune for a decade to one player seem to be over.

    Maybe this is a good compromise?

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