Cars: Kiss the good times goodbye

[Sanlmar]

As I wait for Tesla to file Chapt 11...

I credit Elon Musk with changing my mind about electric vehicles and poking around in a way I wouldn’t have otherwise.

I am a car guy.

The greatest gift I every received was a subscription to Car and Driver when I was 10 for my birthday. The best day of the month was when the new issue would come in the mail with my name on it. Devoured it and learned to love the humor found in the reviews and editorials. The letters from readers and the editors responses were hysterical.

I can walk through a parking lot and name the year, make and model of anything manufactured in the last 45 years and score 99% plus prolly tell you a story about each.

A good afternoon is spent in the driveway claying my paint with a ballgame on the radio. Communing with my car. I’m not a deep person.

I have rediscovered Bob Lutz. He is 87 now. Miraculous health and sharp as a tack. He worked for BMW, Ford, Chrysler, and GM. Chrysler’s Lee Iacocca and Lutz didn’t get along. Iacocca would later say not naming Lutz as his successor was one of his biggest mistakes.

Lutz is outspoken, funny and blunt. My kind of guy.

Lutz was involved in every important vehicle for 35 years. The Dodge V10 Viper was perhaps the first ludicrous domestic performance offering since the 60’s that spawned the Demons etc you see today ... and Lutz made it happen. His credits are endless.

Lutz writes the following. It’s important, sad and perhaps a little dry.

Kiss the good times goodbye

It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.

The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.

Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.

The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.

On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation.

Then, as you approach your exit, your module will enter deceleration lanes, exit and go to your final destination. You will be billed for the transportation. You will enter your credit card number or your thumbprint or whatever it will be then. The module will take off and go to its collection point, ready for the next person to call.

Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future.

A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids' soccer gear in them. They'll still want that convenience.

The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module.

The full article you can read here
http://www.autonews.com/article/2017...GNED/171109944

The video below is what I really want to share. It is just crammed with so much gold. Everything from the mid engine Corvette and all kinds of insight into the automobile business today and it’s certain demise.

Everything Lutz utters is important to me and quite unexpected. I left the video with so many new ideas.

To be clear, Bob Lutz has been a critic of Tesla manufacturing. He too thinks Tesla is doomed. Lutz knows something about actually making cars for profit. He praises the cars themselves but not the company. Tesla’s chief designer worked for Lutz at one time and Lutz admires him greatly.

If you short TSLA at the start of the video it may be zero when you are done. It is long - thank god.



Where are you wrenchjockey?

[sonatine]

respectfully what hes describing sounds fucking incredible.

[MumblesBadly]

I am seriously LOLing at the notion that the government will anytime soon mandate that all vehicles on the road are computer controlled to drive at the same speed. Or perhaps you aren’t aware of the 2nd-and-a-half Amendment?

[Dan Druff]

I'm one of those people who is not looking forward to the day when cars operate themselves, and when individuals may not even own them anymore.

I get joy out of driving. Well, usually. When I'm in traffic, it's not enjoyable, but when the road is open, it brings about a certain satisfaction and euphoria that is not achieved when the vehicle is driving itself.

It will probably be decades until this happens. Many of us will probably not be alive to see it. And those of us that are, possibly won't be able to drive our own cars by that point anyway, due to physical/mental limitations.

[jsearles22]

I don’t see how this concept is feasible where I live. Lots of farmers, very rural. One example I thought of was hunting. I get in my truck and go drive around aimlessly at times looking for something to shoot. Gravel roads, through fields, not on paths. You can’t automate that.

There’s a lot of industry where automation just isn’t feasible. I think the concepts are definitely practical in large cities. It would improve quality of life. But I think we are more like 50-100 years away from this being full blown. I envision something like The Jetsons before this concept ever came to fruition.

[lol wow]

Are we absolutely certain that it's not feasible

[sah_24]

They can't even get the AI to not slam into the back of a firetruck ... Automated cars are so far away, you will likely never see it nvm Lutz who will 100% never see what he said happen luls. What a crock fo shit

[Sanlmar]

It will probably be decades until this happens. Many of us will probably not be alive to see it. And those of us that are, possibly won't be able to drive our own cars by that point anyway, due to physical/mental limitations.

Tech change happens faster than we imagine. There is always an unexpected catalyst that surfaces.

The means by which vehicles communicate intentions is here or very close

DSRC (Dedicated Short Range Communication) on a public band (5.9GHz?) vs C-V2X (cellular-vehicle-to-everything aka 5G

Cadillac already has DSRC embedded in some models. Toyota & Volkswagen next year.

Are you aware how close 5G is to deployment? I think you could buy a 5G phone next year. A little early but it’s happening.

I am astounded how quickly electric motors are being deployed by vehicle manufacturers.

The pace of change is amazing

ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) have reached a mind bending apex. Call it wretched excess. It’s a beautiful thing. It most certainly marks the moment of huge change. I can only liken it to the autos of the late 60’s. Gas prices, interest rates and smog regulations destroyed cars as people knew them back then.

Low gas prices and cheap paper today allow anybody to afford anything if you have $450/mo. That won’t last.

Lutz’s speculation that Lyft and Uber or similar will spec pods for bid and auto manufacturers will be relegated to the role of anonymous suppliers as Foxconn is to Apple - is riveting.

I had always dismissed Apple buying an auto manufacturer as utter nonsense but now I’m beginning to get it conceptually.

Cars will become a commodity like phones.

One name you see repeatedly is Qualcomm. The natural game is trying to predict the big winners.

If 5G cellular-vehicle-to-everything becomes the standard who pays for that? Will each car need a cell subscription like an individual’s cell phone?

To get back to your “decades” assertion: Maybe a singular decade at the outset. A technology decade is like infinity. There will be a surprising and unforeseen catalyst that will light the fuse.

[tony bagadonuts]

It will probably be decades until this happens. Many of us will probably not be alive to see it. And those of us that are, possibly won't be able to drive our own cars by that point anyway, due to physical/mental limitations.

Tech change happens faster than we imagine. There is always an unexpected catalyst that surfaces.

The means by which vehicles communicate intentions is here or very close

DSRC (Dedicated Short Range Communication) on a public band (5.9GHz?) vs C-V2X (cellular-vehicle-to-everything aka 5G

Cadillac already has DSRC embedded in some models. Toyota & Volkswagen next year.

Are you aware how close 5G is to deployment? I think you could buy a 5G phone next year. A little early but it’s happening.

I am astounded how quickly electric motors are being deployed by vehicle manufacturers.

The pace of change is amazing

ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) have reached a mind bending apex. Call it wretched excess. It’s a beautiful thing. It most certainly marks the moment of huge change. I can only liken it to the autos of the late 60’s. Gas prices, interest rates and smog regulations destroyed cars as people knew them back then.

Low gas prices and cheap paper today allow anybody to afford anything if you have $450/mo. That won’t last.

Lutz’s speculation that Lyft and Uber or similar will spec pods for bid and auto manufacturers simply will be anonymous suppliers as Foxconn is to Apple - is riveting.

I had always dismissed Apple buying an auto manufacturer as utter nonsense but now I’m beginning to get it conceptually.

Cars will become a commodity like phones.

One name you see repeatedly is Qualcomm. The natural game is trying to predict the big winners.

If 5G cellular-vehicle-to-everything becomes the standard who pays for that? Will each car need a cell subscription like an individual’s cell phone?

To get back to your “decades” assertion: Maybe a singular decade at the outset. A technology decade is like infinity. There will be a surprising and unforeseen catalyst that will light the fuse.

Another excellent post, btw is it Sanel Mar, San Lemar or San L Mar?

[chinamaniac]

I thought Ric Ocasek may have died after reading the thread title

[Sanlmar]

Another excellent post, btw is it Sanel Mar, San Lemar or San L Mar?

Julie Newmar was Batwoman.

[sonatine]

its interesting how the most vehement arguments against AI-driven autonomous vehicles come from the people with the strongest cultural investments in scientific ignorance.

[Sanlmar]

I thought Ric Ocasek may have died after reading the thread title

I’ll take Boston Bands for $500 Alex

[sah_24]

its interesting how the most vehement arguments against AI-driven autonomous vehicles come from the people with the strongest cultural investments in scientific ignorance.

Nah the best argument comes from the math that they wreck more than the avg driver and the AI can't tell the difference between an open road and a firetruck ... pure fantasy from city dwellers who think they are the only ones in America ... sounds familiar 2016 is calling luls

[Sanlmar]

its interesting how the most vehement arguments against AI-driven autonomous vehicles come from the people with the strongest cultural investments in scientific ignorance.

It is interesting that Bob Lutz who was a heartbeat away from being a big three automotive CEO still doesn’t buy in to global warming.

[Username]

I thought Ric Ocasek may have died after reading the thread title

Not dead, however, after 30 years...Paulina recently left him.

[tony bagadonuts]

Another excellent post, btw is it Sanel Mar, San Lemar or San L Mar?

Julie Newmar was Batwoman.

Julie Newmar was Catwoman. Yvonne Craig was Batgirl.

[Sanlmar]

Julie Newmar was Batwoman.

Julie Newmar was Catwoman. Yvonne Craig was Batgirl.

Women who wore latex for $1000, Alex

Eartha Kitt is a correct answer too.

[MumblesBadly]

its interesting how the most vehement arguments against AI-driven autonomous vehicles come from the people with the strongest cultural investments in scientific ignorance.

I’m not against the notion of automated and coordinated-speed-controlled vehicles, because WHEN successfully implemented in the major traffic arteries will both result in a significant productivity boost, both directly because of fuel savings, reduced labor costs for freight transport, as well as time reclaimed from the driving commute for white collar/knowledge workers.

But my beef is with the hype pushed by the folks backing the early investments in this tech. Because anything related to use of public roads will be laboriously publicly debated by both those with genuine concerns for public safety and those who disingenuously dismiss it for fear of their industry losing revenues from such a revolution in our transport system.

Hell! The FAA still uses ridiculously outmoded technology to keep track of commercial and general aviation aircraft in regulated airspace because the aviation industry doesn’t want to be saddled with the cost of adopting much better tech that has been available for at least a decade if not longer given the ubiquity and reliability of GPS. Meanwhile, the shipping industry, as well as modern farming, has fully integrated GPS into the operation of its primary vehicles for about a decade.

So, ballpark guess? We’ll see lots of testing over the next decade, probably two. And after lots of documented success — and I mean LOTS — the federal government will START mandating that new vehicles be equipped with the caravaning/speed coordinated technology for travel on interstate highways. But it will take at least a decade after that starting period for enough older vehicles to be phased out of the driving public’s hands to require everyone’s vehicle to be driven in such a manner on public highways.

Meanwhile, tech-progressive states like California and Washington may lead the way before the federal government takes action, but “freedom-loving-and-public-safety-be-damned” portions of the country, such as Texas and the Great Plains states will likely have to be dragged into it by the feds, and probably with the option to implement the tech in urban/higher traffic areas. Which would still leave lots of opportunities for joy riders to play catch-me-if-you-can with smaller local police departments that like to pad their budgets with speeding tickets issued to out-of-jurisdiction travelers.