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Thread: ELON MUSK IS GOD

  1. #561
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  2. #562
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Absolutely no words.

    You got me in a rear naked choke and I tap out.

    I was wrong and I submit.

    530 Calls is hero stuff.


    I now need your advice about a rash. We’ll chat later.

  3. #563
    Gold SPIT this's Avatar
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    I've never been long or short TSLA, but this run up is getting insane. I wonder how many shareholders can now buy a Tesla with their TSLA profits.

  4. #564
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    I'm betting hard that there will be a fall on Monday/Tuesday.

    If it goes up 10% on Monday/Tuesday please donate food to your local homeless shelter.

  5. #565
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    congrats 'tine..

    really weird shit TBH...usually when you get that near exponential move that's it...shorts have said 'fuck it' and moved on so there shouldn't be anything really driving it higher, especially being so close to earnings...

    god bless you if you shorted this at the start of the year and have girded your loins and are still short...I don't have that kinda testicular fortitude...

  6. #566
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I'm betting hard that there will be a fall on Monday/Tuesday.

    If it goes up 10% on Monday/Tuesday please donate food to your local homeless shelter.
    looks like you were off by a few days. premarket trading tomorrow might pump it up again.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  7. #567
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I'm betting hard that there will be a fall on Monday/Tuesday.

    If it goes up 10% on Monday/Tuesday please donate food to your local homeless shelter.
    looks like you were off by a few days. premarket trading tomorrow might pump it up again.
    I don’t care what day it goes down. Today is better then I won’t stress over weekend

    Ideally 535 or lower would be a nice price. But I’ll take anything below 550

  8. #568
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  9. #569
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post

    looks like you were off by a few days. premarket trading tomorrow might pump it up again.
    I don’t care what day it goes down. Today is better then I won’t stress over weekend

    Ideally 535 or lower would be a nice price. But I’ll take anything below 550
    Simpdog knows and what Sonatine doesn’t is that a post like my post above is what boomers used to call capitulation so the hatred and doubt still plays if you are sharp. Of course the tweeners got their Robinhood app open and are using their bitcoin.

    Blowoff move. Preparing for the kill

  10. #570
    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Ignoring the incorrect statements, laughable grammer and general incoherence, I appreciate the sentiment.

  11. #571
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Lol Edison inventing the wheel.

    That has to be one of the best lines a President has ever said.

     
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      tony bagadonuts:

  12. #572
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    The Edison fucking Tesla part is a little confusing
    When faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself "What would Micon do?", then do the opposite.

    PFA Rookie of the Year Awards
    2012: The Templar (unknown)
    2013: Jasep $5000+
    2015: Micon's gofundme legal defense $3k begging for 100k:
    2018: 4Dragons
    2019: Dutch Boyd: Mike Postle
    2020: Covid19
    2021: SMIFlorida and some sort of shit coins for $50k
    2022: BDubs leaks chums club info
    2023: 22nd Feb 4th Dec Youtube channels removed
    2024: Dustin Morgan wins Chrissy's $1000 contest

  13. #573
    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Nobody is more bullish on Tesla than I am, but jesus where is the consolidation?? This sort of runup frankly is unhealthy and irrational.

     
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      sonatine: irrationally exuberant, one might say

  14. #574
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    honestly i think people got really active in the stock because the #tslaq crowd were just so totally insufferable.

    having driven the money lenders out of the temple, i believe we may see another slump incoming.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  15. #575
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    As i said a few weeks back.... I hate this move. It’s a shit way way overvalued company at this point. But you can’t posibly short it at this point. Buy and hold until it breaks. Momo is in charge.

    Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    If I had insider information that the Fed was going to end QE4 (orwhatever we are up to) Ithis would be the stock Id short.

  16. #576
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    if i had a knack for conspiracy theories, id wonder if someone was investing an absolute metric fucking ton of money into blowing up the stock so they could dump it all at once and create an extinction event.

    might be cheaper than getting driven out of business.

     
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      tony bagadonuts: If?
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  17. #577
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    some interesting food for thought here:


    note this is from dec 2019.

    1) A company’s share price is the equilibrium point where Active Investors with a fair value estimate greater than the current share price is equal to the number of shares available for active investors to purchase.
    $TSLA
    2) Share price is changed by 3 key things: A) Changes in current investors fair value estimates (based on fundamentals), B) Increased pool of investors considering the stock & making fair value estimates & C) Changes to number of shares available for active investors to purchase.
    3) Changes to shares held for Options & Convert Delta Hedging and changes in Short Interest do not change A & B, but they do change C and hence do drive changes in the share price.
    4) In the short term, Options Delta Hedging is ~6x more powerful feedback to share price moves than Short seller’s collateral calls (and c.1/3rd of this is cancelled by convert delta hedging).
    5) However in the longer term I'd guess changes in Short Interest are more significant to SP. I haven’t tracked full net delta exposure of the Tesla options market through time but I guess this is kept relatively stable - on the scale of weeks options holders likely take profits.
    6) Change to short interest however is a more permanent reduction is Tesla share equivalents traded in the market. When a short borrows from one investor & then sells a Tesla share to another investor, they are effectively creating a synthetic Tesla share.
    7) This synthetic share is the short's contractual obligation to the party they borrowed from to return the share & to mirror all dividends on the real share. The original Tesla long now owns this synthetic share & not a real share, but they still have unchanged Tesla exposure.
    8) So when there was 44 million shares short interest in May, Tesla longs had a pool of 224 million Tesla equivalent share exposure to buy from (180m real shares & 44m synthetic shares). This has reduced to an estimated 206m shares today (180m real shares, 26m synthetic shares).
    9)In terms of number of shares available for Active Investors to purchase in the market, shorting/covering is equivalent to raising capital/buying back shares. And this has a permanent impact to the share price even if it does not change any individual investor's valuation.
    10) It does not change fundamental value of a company because when synthetic shares are created and destroyed, the economic % ownership of a company and its profits/dividends does not get diluted, and the company does not actually change its cash position.
    11) But in terms of supply demand dynamics for Tesla shares this 17m reduction in Tesla synthetic shares traded was equivalent to a share buyback of 17m shares (I estimate at an average share price of ~$275 and total cost of c.$4.7bn and average SP).
    12) So even if there was no change to any individual investor’s fair valuation of Tesla & even if no new investors got involved in the Tesla story as results improved, then the SP of Tesla could still have permanently changed due to the change in short interest alone.
    13) However, I think its fair to assume that many people's fundamental based fair valuation of Tesla has changed too since the share price lows in May.
    14) Key drivers of this change are:
    A) There was uncertainty where Model 3 demand would land after the initial reservation orders were fulfilled and US EV credit expired. Deliveries in Q3 & Q4 post clearing the backlog have now significantly reduced uncertainty on this.
    15) B) There was uncertainty whether Tesla could continue reducing the production cost of Model 3. But Q319 results implied a ~$5k reduction in Model 3 COGs since 4Q18.
    16) C) There was uncertainty how delayed Tesla would be in building and ramping production at GF3 in China and Model Y in the US. But all indications are now that Tesla is currently on schedule or possibly ahead on Model Y.
    17) D) There was uncertainty whether Tesla could contain SG&A and R&D expenses as it grew deliveries & launched Model 3 in new markets. But in 3Q19 vs 3Q17 SG&A was down 9% in absolute terms & R&D was flat despite a 272% increase in deliveries.
    18) E) Concerns over Tesla customer service and satisfaction have been high based on many anecdotes shared on social media & the media.
    19) E Continued) However in the first large scale survey (5k owners), Bloomberg found 99% of Model 3 owners would recommend to friends, defects were down 44%yoy (far below market average), ~80% say Model 3 is more reliable than their previous car & <5% say it is less reliable.
    20) F) There were concerns that ICE OEMs would launch competitive cars such as the E-tron, Taycan etc. However in the end most OEM EV programs have had issues, are relatively low volume programs or are behind on key specs.
    21) F Continued) For example the Taycan is 46% worse than Model 3 LR AWD on the key Powertrain technology metric EPA miles of range per KWh. It even lags 2012 Model S by 31%.
    As a result investors adjusted their view on how easy it will be for ICE OEMs to catch up on EV tech.
    22) So in conclusion, the 126% increase in Tesla share price from $180 in May to $407 today is likely driven by:
    23)
    A) Changes to original investor’s fundamental fair value estimates.
    B) New investors getting involved as uncertainty reduced and
    C) A 17m reduction in shares available for longs to buy.
    In the short term price changes are also heavily accelerated by Options delta hedging.
    Last edited by sonatine; 01-22-2020 at 03:49 PM.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  18. #578
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    A Reddit user posted saying that the Tesla dealership in Oakville, Ontario called and told him his long-range AWD Model Y would be delivered in either March or April.:
    Other Canadians further down the Reddit thread who have also ordered Model Ys have reached out to the Oakville dealer and have been told that there’s no news about Model Y deliveries.
    What is real? Canadian propaganda or some inside info?

  19. #579
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Other Canadians further down the Reddit thread who have also ordered Model Ys have reached out to the Oakville dealer and have been told that there’s no news about Model Y deliveries.
    What is real? Canadian propaganda or some inside info?

    i saw some burger on twitter make a similar claim with absolutely zero attestation.

    what we can know for sure, however, is that the VINs are in the california dmv and the april time frame could be real. but im also hearing that tesla is still tuning design on the Y. but yeah its definitely coming.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  20. #580
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    In fake meat news, Starbucks just inked a deal with Beyond Meat. Of course I get in when its 134 and now its 120.

    I wonder if Tesla will lose value, will it be like 25% in 1 day or gradually 4-5% everyday for a week. Gonna be interesting seeing either way. Still think you ppl who short the stock are almost suicidal.

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