ELON MUSK IS GOD

[Forum Wars]

Macro question on big stocks: so what happens with big companies who are temporarily non-profitable (Airlines, Cruise lines, Casino conglomerates, Banks?! etc.).

Do they just get 0% money (to pay suppliers/some employees/capital costs) from the Fed promising to pay it back over time?

Obv. this works fine if the shutdown is like 2 weeks - 1 mo. But at 2-3 months, they will be losing TOO MUCH money compared to what they can earn if people come back in lets say 3 months...especially those overlevererage companies. By 6 mos. many will need to be swallowed up by other companies with low leverage/lots of free cash, or given "free money" instead of just 0% interest.

I'm thinking Berkshire cannot lose, just because his companies are so full of cash or low leveraged.

[Forum Wars]

Also, I have not heard "it's different this time". Which makes me think, considering this is a very different market killing catalyst, "It IS different this time.". But, since I just said it, most likely it's not different this time.

Oh, it IS different this time. I agree

It’s common thought now but last time it was a simple Financial institution problem.

This is entirely different.


Reread your post. Actually everyone is saying it’s different than 2008 if that’s what you mean

I just must not read a lot. I haven't heard "its different this time" yet. But I'm sure someone has said it. Agree that it IS 100% a different kind of catalyst this time.

In the end, we can probably all go back to work, take our chances at not being the 3-4% who die and then everything is restored in 6 months with 3-4% less people who can be replaced anyway.

Right now, no one wants to seriously consider this. (UK is possibly gonna try it - but "protect" the old geezers for 4 mos.) and then be "out". If not doing something like this and keeping everyone indoors for 4 mos or more kills the economy more than central banks can handle, literally some folks are gonna suggest going outside and dealing with it rather than "live" and go through a depression type era.

[Sanlmar]

Oh, it IS different this time. I agree

It’s common thought now but last time it was a simple Financial institution problem.

This is entirely different.


Reread your post. Actually everyone is saying it’s different than 2008 if that’s what you mean

I just must not read a lot. I haven't heard "its different this time" yet. But I'm sure someone has said it. Agree that it IS 100% a different kind of catalyst this time.

In the end, we can probably all go back to work, take our chances at not being the 3-4% who die and then everything is restored in 6 months with 3-4% less people who can be replaced anyway.

Right now, no one wants to seriously consider this. UK is possibly gonna try it (but "protect" the old geezers for 4 mos.) and then be out.

I hear you. Children will be hungry tonight because parents have no income. You’re nuking the world economy. Greater impact than geezers.

On the other hand, Tellafriend and his ilk will sue your sorry ass if someone dies cause you made them work or got sick in your gym.

Speaking of hungry children..... what we need is Fiscal stimulus from our sorry ass government not monetary stimulus from Fed.

I think the Fed is going to electrocute us. Just watch.

Complete failure from that cunt Pelosi and Trump.

[Daly]

I just must not read a lot. I haven't heard "its different this time" yet. But I'm sure someone has said it. Agree that it IS 100% a different kind of catalyst this time.

In the end, we can probably all go back to work, take our chances at not being the 3-4% who die and then everything is restored in 6 months with 3-4% less people who can be replaced anyway.

Right now, no one wants to seriously consider this. UK is possibly gonna try it (but "protect" the old geezers for 4 mos.) and then be out.

I hear you. Children will be hungry tonight because parents have no income. You’re nuking the world economy. Greater impact than geezers.

On the other hand, Tellafriend and his ilk will sue your sorry ass if someone dies cause you made them work or got sick in your gym.

Speaking of hungry children..... what we need is Fiscal stimulus from our sorry ass government not monetary stimulus from Fed.

I think the Fed is going to electrocute us. Just watch.

Complete failure from that cunt Pelosi and Trump.

Easy San. Mitt has got us covered. $1K BUI for the life of the virus. Virus will never end.

[Dan Druff]

You know when you get sick, and things get worse, worse, worse, and just as it peaks, it abruptly gets better really quickly?

That's what's going to happen here. Things will keep getting worse and the panic will keep increasing... then there's going to be a sign that things are improving or less catastrophic than we feared, and suddenly there's going to be a wave of relief and feelgood in the US.

People will be cautious at first, but everyone will be itching to return to life as normal.

The market will then reflect this. The exceptions:

- Cruise lines. This will take awhile. People won't be ready to jump on a ship right away, and will fear another quarantine.

- Companies beaten into submission by this disruption. If they were playing too fast and loose with debt, and lack the operational cash to continue, we might see a problem.

- Earnings reports. They will be down big time for a lot of companies, and when these get released, we will see market drops.

I'm no finance expert, but that's what I see happening.

I'm not sure when the bottom is coming. I can't even begin to predict that. But I think it won't be too hard to see when it comes -- look for any sign of optimism that we are on our way to getting past this -- and then buy, buy, buy -- especially the stocks which got most depressed by this and don't seem like they're companies on the verge of collapse.

[sonatine]

statistically there are always usually rapid retracements after a drop like this. it would be super unusual if this just kept on deflating. spy is already up a % after hours.

the c19 budget bill getting signed in senate will also be a big bump.

but yeah, dead cat bounce soon and then we settle into the new normal providing no white house celebs go donkdown. thats really the big wildcard here. once continuity of government starts getting referred to as a deep state coup on fox news, spy hitting 180 is going to be a mortal lock.

cruise lines are dead. non-essential. cruise lines = lehmen, airlines = AIG, bailout wise.

[Dan Druff]

I don't think cruise lines are dead long term. It will just take time for people to return to them.

The olds have a lot of time (and in many cases, a lot of money), yet their physical ability to travel is reduced. Some can't drive anymore. Others have a hard time with the airport and airplanes, and really try to minimize air travel. They like shit being done for them. Fly once, get on the cruise, it takes you everywhere, your meals are taken care of, and you pick from a list of shore excursions where they take you around the place. Perfect for geriatrics who feel that all the typical hassles that come with traveling are too difficult.

The industry was thriving until this happened. No doubt this will be harmful in the short and medium term. Olds will be afraid of dying from the next plague to spread around the ship. Everyone will fear the disasterous onboard quarantine we just saw happening. The general fear of getting sick on cruise ships will be much higher than before.

But memories are short, and I suspect this will slowly transition back to normal. By 2022, I could see the number of people on cruise lines being back to 2019 levels.

[Daly]

You know when you get sick, and things get worse, worse, worse, and just as it peaks, it abruptly gets better really quickly?

That's what's going to happen here. Things will keep getting worse and the panic will keep increasing... then there's going to be a sign that things are improving or less catastrophic than we feared, and suddenly there's going to be a wave of relief and feelgood in the US.

People will be cautious at first, but everyone will be itching to return to life as normal.

The market will then reflect this. The exceptions:

- Cruise lines. This will take awhile. People won't be ready to jump on a ship right away, and will fear another quarantine.

- Companies beaten into submission by this disruption. If they were playing too fast and loose with debt, and lack the operational cash to continue, we might see a problem.

- Earnings reports. They will be down big time for a lot of companies, and when these get released, we will see market drops.

I'm no finance expert, but that's what I see happening.

I'm not sure when the bottom is coming. I can't even begin to predict that. But I think it won't be too hard to see when it comes -- look for any sign of optimism that we are on our way to getting past this -- and then buy, buy, buy -- especially the stocks which got most depressed by this and don't seem like they're companies on the verge of collapse.

It’s scary Todd, but I see the same.

[TheXFactor]

Here's a tip for you...SELL, SELL, SELL

Before your stock goes down to zero.

People are losing fortunes and stockbrokers may start committing suicide.

[sonatine]

dji up 300 points after hours.

[Belly Buster]

It's only old people that are dying. The young bucks won't put up with this shit much beyond a month, maybe 6 weeks max.

Let's flush the weak hands out - both people and companies. Those left still standing will be better off after than before.

Some old fuck dies = No care home fees, a sweet inheritance plus more pension in the pot for those left.

Some over-leveraged company fails because it has no cash to ride out a mini-storm - more string to the bow of those better managed companies still standing; less competition = more profit.

[sonatine]

statistically there are always usually rapid retracements after a drop like this.

limit up after hours, currently up 750 points.

[DonaldTrumpsHairPiece]

This is the time to BUY BUY BUY you BUY the blood!

The fear is what makes the weak sell, the wise buy that blood. It is NOT the end of the world, markets WILL rebound, BUY!

[Texter]

Good cheap stocks:

Dividend play = AT and T, yield up over 6%

Getting its ass kicked = United Airlines, 80 a month ago, 36 now.

Buy some just to say you own some = Berkshire Hathaway B. Was 230 a month ago...now 178


Show me what you got

[limitles]

This is the time to BUY BUY BUY you BUY the blood!

The fear is what makes the weak sell, the wise buy that blood. It is NOT the end of the world, markets WILL rebound, BUY!

It may be the time to buy but most are wondering if they should sell.
This would be the worst move of all.
Sit on your hands and ride it out.
If it doesn't correct by the time
you're finished you'll never know

[mulva]

ibm under 1 hundo rite now

[Daly]

statistically there are always usually rapid retracements after a drop like this.

limit up after hours, currently up 750 points.

Market manipulation costs less after hours. Fed/plunge protection team gets more bang for the buck.

[limitles]

Is this not the saddest thread? In the grips of disaster
there are those hoping for a little sunshine on the backs
of others. It's pathetic. It's psychotic

Am I the only one thinking this? Speak up
little queens. It's obnoxious is what it is.

I gotta say it. You and your little pockets
of wealth, lol, mean nothing to nobody.
Think about it. When you lie rotting in your
grave, no one, even your family will give
a shit about your investments.

If they do then they're as fucked as you
long term. Profiteers just don't cut it
in the history books except to be exposed
for their greed

[sonatine]

limit up after hours, currently up 750 points.

Market manipulation costs less after hours. Fed/plunge protection team gets more bang for the buck.

absolutely amazing point.

[Sanlmar]

You know when you get sick, and things get worse, worse, worse, and just as it peaks, it abruptly gets better really quickly?

You return to the doctor for your follow-up and he announces that your bloodwork reveals you have leukemia.

You thought you only the flu.

Hey, your health kinda rallied for a little bit.