ELON MUSK IS GOD

[sonatine]

that said, i legit think that pickup truck reveal on thursday is going to wipe their gains and then some.

I certainly hope so. I'd like to add to my position but $351 is a pretty rich valuation at this time and the technicals indicate the stock is overbought.

Not sure why you're bearish on the pickup, will be interesting to see the reaction. NOTHING would surprise me as it relates to TSLA the stock.

The real bull case for me surrounds the combo of the model Y and the Shanghai giga factory, along with Tesla's huge lead in autonomous driving data.

I'm hoping it tanks so I can double my position at around the 315 range.

My analysis/concern with the pickups:

The pickup market in America is oddly specific; the audience is uniquely unsophisticated and that's reflected in the rise of average prices and the deployment of an entirely new class of predatory subprime auto loans designed SPECIFICALLY to rope rubes into buying trucks that cost what luxury boats were going for a generation ago. Somewhere around here I had an absolute masterclass of an article on exactly this, but you've probably already read it.

So my concern is two-fold;

1) Where is the entry point for a an electric pickup truck in that market? This fucking truck's biggest technical selling point is its torque. Excuse me but what modern pickup truck lacks torque?

2) It looks like something out of Bladerunner, and thats not something someone shopping for a pickup truck is going to want to fuck with. When you see those videos of drunk povs keying and kicking Teslas? Those are basically pickup truck owners. They HATE Teslas, they hate people who drive Teslas, they love rolling coal and hanging brass testicles off their bumpers.

The only people who are going to buy these fucking things are gov agencies looking to meet emission standards. And thats not going to be an insignificant market. But the loudest voices in the room arent going to be guys with pocket protectors and combovers, first its going to be a bunch of working class morons laughing at the mere notion of driving one of those things in public, and then it's going to be the shorts retweeting those responses, and then its going to be main stream media saying "everyone hates these fuckin things and TSLA just lost 18% in 24 hours".

Ultimately I think its going to be a break even product because again, gov agencies spend a lot of money on gas and they have CO2 caps to contend with, so its possible they will become the prime consumers and in numbers that sustain it as a niche product.

But it aint gonna be no Model 3.

Caveat: I'm not dumping shares to rebuy after a dip because the market makes absolutely no fucking sense at all lately. But if it does drop, I'm going balls deep.

[Sanlmar]

that said, i legit think that the Ford Mustang Mach E arrival at dealerships is going to wipe their gains and then some.

Prolly true. An electric for combustion Mustang $ and performance versions that aren’t 6 figures.

Best yet, you won’t need to get a second job to foot the premium insurance premiums cause of the clumsy mix of materials that include every body shop’s favorite - aluminum.

I trust Fords paint won’t be wretched either.

The floodgates have been opened

[sonatine]

that said, i legit think that the Ford Mustang Mach E arrival at dealerships is going to wipe their gains and then some.

Prolly true. An electric for combustion Mustang $ and performance versions that aren’t 6 figures.

Best yet, you won’t need to get a second job to foot the premium insurance premiums cause of the clumsy mix of materials that include every body shop’s favorite - aluminum.

I trust Fords paint won’t be wretched either.

The floodgates have been opened

autopilot and a maxed out model 3 costs 70k = not worried about pretenders to the throne, plus its going to fuel adoption / advancement of battery and supercharger tech, which are the elephants in the profit room.

now whats interesting about your six figure comment is musk absolutely seems to think the S and X are going to continue to be relevant as revenue generators but those are the ones most vulnerable to the competition.

[Sanlmar]

Profit? You're talking about profit?

What interests me is that what started out as a Ford compliance exercise seemed to catch fire. It’s all there.

Will the Ford race the Tesla for pink slips and win? No.

Will Tesla ever have the production and scale advantages of Ford? No

So is this a tech and performance race? The automotive history is dotted with premium engineering and performance brands (Maserati) that have great product and innovation but ended up in bankruptcy only to be absorbed and sold and so on

In another economic cycle these are the first to die ... think the qtr mill headshots having to live on their dividend income.

Even Porsche once was on the ropes until Volkswagen bailed them out

[sonatine]

Profit? You're talking about profit?

What interests me is that what started out as a Ford compliance exercise seemed to catch fire. It’s all there.

Will the Ford race the Tesla for pink slips and win? No.

Will Tesla ever have the production and scale advantages of Ford? No

So is this a tech and performance race? The automotive history is dotted with premium engineering and performance brands (Maserati) that have great product and innovation but ended up in bankruptcy only to be absorbed and sold and so on

In another economic cycle these are the first to die ... think the qtr mill headshots having to live on their dividend income.

Even Porsche once was on the ropes until Volkswagen bailed them out

im distracted rn but are you comparing ford ev scale/advantage or just ford in general?

because the latter seems borderline irrelevant as their tide is in egress and the ev market is in ingress.

[Sanlmar]

Speaking of ebbing and flowing..... I’m a car guy. Huge. Yet my interest in TSLA is fading. Like I don’t care either way most of the time. Apparently like the declining US market.

What recently got me engaged was fishing around the topic of used Tesla’s. Resale and repairs.

Especially repairs. The fit and finish for a car that expensive has always been a point of discussion. I wrote it off to inexperienced manufacturing performed in tents like Bedouin’s in the desert. The outrageous insurance costs brought into focus the mix of materials used in the body. Plastic next to aluminum etc. that’s gonna explain the tolerancing problems and gaps between panels. Aluminum is a nightmare to repair but is also so unforgiving day to day.

That led to the reveal that Musk started his own auto insurance company. Out of necessity really. The guy charges hard at problems. I respect that. I do.

It was a fun rabbit hole.

My TSLA refactory period grows longer and longer. My wife can explain

[sonatine]

I mean... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/cfra...0-a-share.html

like i completely get that as a car person, this has an emotional dimension that you cant/wont/shouldnt ignore and again, thats respected.

my focus isnt actually even on the cars, its on a broader footprint of eco-relevance thats absolutely 100% going to be government mandated very very soon.

people fixate on google's ascension as a victory of sales/advertising but the exclusion of their gov contracts is glaring / conspicuous.

i think people are going to be saying wow tesla must make a great car thats why their stock broke the 1k mark but the fine print is going to read 'oh yeah several states now require solar roofs and new houses in california require power walls, and tesla landed those contracts', because thats pretty much exactly what happened with google/NASA/sundry intelligence services.

[sonatine]

also so we're clear the fact that 'cybertruck' is a word now is fucking retarded and thats never profitable.

[tony bagadonuts]

Best yet, you won’t need to get a second job to foot the premium insurance premiums cause of the clumsy mix of materials that include every body shop’s favorite - aluminum.

The outrageous insurance costs brought into focus the mix of materials used in the body. Plastic next to aluminum etc. that’s gonna explain the tolerancing problems and gaps between panels. Aluminum is a nightmare to repair but is also so unforgiving day to day.

FWIW I priced out insurance through USAA for a new model 3 and it was no more expensive than what I currently pay for my 2018 Ford Focus. $7.72/year increase to be exact.

[sonatine]

forget everything i said.


every rapper and basketball player on earth is going to be styling one of these.

[Krypt]

uh... think i’m gonna trade in my mercedes and buy that truck

[WillieMcFML]

this is why you don't let CEO's make decisions on DMT, what a fail

this version would have been at least tolerable - edit: this version would actually be bad ass






elon ultimately went with the current shape because the body will be cheap and easy to stamp out - almost all flat panels

not sure about the tariff situation effect and it's future, but imagine how cheap he could pump these trucks out in Shanghai with that cheap Chinese steel and labor

[Krypt]

this is why you don't let CEO's make decisions on DMT, what a fail

this version would have been at least tolerable:






elon ultimately went with the current shape because the body will be cheap and easy to stamp out - almost all flat panels

not sure about the tariff situation effect and it's future, but imagine how cheap he could pump these trucks out in Shanghai with that cheap Chinese steel and labor

Aren’t you like some dedicated TSLA short? Shorts have lost their fkn asses to the tune of billions of dollars all the way from $195

[sonatine]

the stainless steel body is looking clutch, frankly.

[sonatine]

so what the fuck do we have on our hands here exactly?

its an eco-hummer basically, yes?

[WillieMcFML]

so what the fuck do we have on our hands here exactly?

its an eco-hummer basically, yes?

except really fucking ugly

and what kind of range are you getting with it hauling a boat?

just another vaporware product from elon to try to pump up the stock so he doesn't get margin called on the millions (billions?) of loans against his stock - i mean the triple engine AWD isn't expected to be delivered until at least 2022 according to the order page (and the $100 deposit is fully refundable)

i love elon's vision, and we def need more people like him, but his vision rarely aligns with reality
edit: he rarely executes his vision

if he wasn't such a slave to the highly leveraged loans against his stock i think the company would have a MUCH better long term future

[sonatine]

literally every time you go off on how hes bad for the company, the stock soars, so thank you.

[sonatine]

but yeah the 500 mile range is great but your point is well taken about towing.

not to mention.. how the fuck do you pull into a supercharger station with a goddamned boat behind you?

real talk tho.

[SPIT this]

I'm DYING. Skip to 1 minute. They show off that the glass is indestructible, so they ask somebody to try to break the glass and it breaks very easily. Then for some reason they decide to try again on the other panel and it breaks again (after he throws it even more gently). It's supposed to be bulletproof lmao. Musk seems visibly shaken after this.

[SPIT this]

By comparison, here's the Rivian Truck that's being developed, which is now mostly owned by Amazon. Amazon eventually wants Rivian vans as part of their delivery fleet.

In September 2019, Amazon ordered 100,000 electric delivery vans from Rivian, as part of its plan to convert its delivery fleet to 100% renewable energy by 2030. Delivery of the vehicles will begin in 2021. Amazon expects to have 10,000 electric vans in operation by 2022, but is not slated to take delivery of the entire 100,000 Rivian vans the contract calls for until 2030