I'm hoping it tanks so I can double my position at around the 315 range.
My analysis/concern with the pickups:
The pickup market in America is oddly specific; the audience is uniquely unsophisticated and that's reflected in the rise of average prices and the deployment of an entirely new class of predatory subprime auto loans designed SPECIFICALLY to rope rubes into buying trucks that cost what luxury boats were going for a generation ago. Somewhere around here I had an absolute masterclass of an article on exactly this, but you've probably already read it.
So my concern is two-fold;
1) Where is the entry point for a an electric pickup truck in that market? This fucking truck's biggest technical selling point is its torque. Excuse me but what modern pickup truck lacks torque?
2) It looks like something out of Bladerunner, and thats not something someone shopping for a pickup truck is going to want to fuck with. When you see those videos of drunk povs keying and kicking Teslas? Those are basically pickup truck owners. They HATE Teslas, they hate people who drive Teslas, they love rolling coal and hanging brass testicles off their bumpers.
The only people who are going to buy these fucking things are gov agencies looking to meet emission standards. And thats not going to be an insignificant market. But the loudest voices in the room arent going to be guys with pocket protectors and combovers, first its going to be a bunch of working class morons laughing at the mere notion of driving one of those things in public, and then it's going to be the shorts retweeting those responses, and then its going to be main stream media saying "everyone hates these fuckin things and TSLA just lost 18% in 24 hours".
Ultimately I think its going to be a break even product because again, gov agencies spend a lot of money on gas and they have CO2 caps to contend with, so its possible they will become the prime consumers and in numbers that sustain it as a niche product.
But it aint gonna be no Model 3.
Caveat: I'm not dumping shares to rebuy after a dip because the market makes absolutely no fucking sense at all lately. But if it does drop, I'm going balls deep.