Originally Posted by
BCR
Let me get this straight, so it’s as if there were Catholic terrorists operating out of Brazil who had pulled off an attack against the US, and were planning subsequent attacks using say anthrax, but in the interim, realized that the US was preparing itself to go to war against Mexico because they’re also brown and Catholic and the US was convinced Mexico was hoarding anthrax, despite having none. Thus they abandoned plan? Curious. Launching the US into full scale war against all Muslim States was an AlQaeda guiding principle. They seemed less interested in PR, and winning hearts and minds of infidels, and more interested in rallying their own. It would seem they tried to play the long game and lost in an attempt to embarrass us.
It doesn’t seem to make coherent sense. Logic dictates they would wait until later, after the US had already claimed victory is Iraq, and then launch chemical attack leaving the US with egg on its face and further outrage the Muslim world.
So I don’t doubt the validity of the article, but your title is totally misleading. It would be accurate to say that Misinformed Prepartions for War in Iraq successfully delayed NY subway gas attack, because the key arrest occurred in February of 2003, while the war against Iraq didn’t occur until the following month and victory in the form of Mission Accomplished occurred on May 1st. So basically they knew the US has an idiotic notion, didn’t want to stop the US from embarrassing itself, and in the waiting for a bigger payout, lost the gamble because of the work of intelligence agents who sniffed out the plan before they had a chance to carry it out, which they almost certainly would have.
They would have waited until we said Mission Accomplished, the inspectors confirmed there was nothing found in Iraq, then gassed us with an accompanying video from some cave in Afghanistan mocking our incompetence at bombing over there when we’re over here, and further laughed at taking out a rather secular barbarian in Saddam, while failing to kill the true caliphate being formed in the mountains 1500 miles to the east. Interesting gamble by Al Qaeda, fortunate luck on our part coupled with some good intelligence work. Really lucky ending. We got lucky a lot in that period of time post 9-11. Partly we created some of our own luck with aggressive tactics, but also at times, purely dumb luck. I don’t know anyone who would have bet, regardless of tactics, that we would have not had anything resembling 9/11 for almost 20 years after 9/11. Seemed inevitable.
I don't think that they expected the US to "embarrass itself" with the war in Iraq, because al-Zawarihi had no clue whether there were WMDs there or not.
Remember, Saddam DID have WMD programs on and off dating back to the 80s, and it was always the same dance with him. He would claim he shut it down, would actually just suspend it, then would restart, then would get caught again, then would say, "Okay, I'm REALLY shutting it down this time", rinse and repeat.
The US ran bad in that when they finally attacked, Saddam either really had shut it down by that point, or had dismantled them shortly before the impending war started.
But al-Zawahiri had no idea what the US would actually find there.
You are correct that al Qaeda wanted to rally the infidels to take up arms against the US, but al-Zawahiri apparently wanted to do so by making the US look like pointless aggressors against the Muslim people, and he was afraid that a chemical attack on the US shortly before the invasion of Iraq would muddy the message.
So he figured it was better to simply let the US attack Iraq, get his Muslim brothers angry about the unjustified aggression, and more of these Muslim brothers would want to join the fight.
On a side note, I'm actually impressed how good US intelligence typically is regarding stopping these domestic terror attacks. You'd think they'd be able to pull more of them off without detection, but someone always seems to screw something up along the way and US authorities get wind of it. 9/11 also should have been in that category, but the FBI seriously dropped the ball. They arrested Zacarias Moussaoui after suspicious behavior was reported in August 2001 while in a flight school, but he sat in jail without any real investigative action which could have uncovered the 9/11 plot, despite warnings from the flight school that they believed he was going to crash a plane into a building:
https://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/22/u...uspicions.html