Hero call or give up?

[Dan Druff]

Situation: Day 2 of the WSOP $1500 Big Blind Ante event. Already in the money, and the prizes move up fairly slowly at the moment. So if I bust, I'm getting like $100 over a mincash.

I have about 41k to start the hand, and blinds are 5k/1k/1k (remember, the final 1k is the ante).

I'm in seat 7. Seat 5 is occupied by Daniel Strelitz, a young pro who won the WPT last year for $1,000,000. He enters a ton of pots preflop, and seems to 3-bet pre liberally. However, I haven't yet seen him show down a hand worse than KQ, so perhaps he's also just getting a lot of quality hands. (My guess is a combination of both.)

I've been at the table for about 45 min, and I have the tight middle aged white guy image.

I keep wanting to 3-bet him, but don't want to do it with absolute garbage. Unfortunately, I'm dealt total trash after total trash, so I'm not 3-betting him.

I did play two pots with him from the BB to his button raise. One I attempted a turn bluff after he checked behind on a T high flop then a K hit turn, but he had AJ, called, and then we both checked river (I had J high). The other I had 78 on an A73AA board where the flop was 2 spades. He bet flop, I called, we both checked turn, and I bet river, and he folded after thinking.

So he did see I was capable of bluffing on the first hand.

Anyway, I had 41k and picked up 88. Strelitz opened to his usual 2300. I bumped it up to 5800. He called. He had a big stack coming in, like 130k or more.

Pot 14,100.

Flop came KT5 two spades.

He checked, I fired 8500. He called.

Turn Kc.

Pot 31,100.

I have 27k left. Obv it's either shove or check behind. I chose to check behind, and be done with the hand unless I improved.

River 7s, so now flush is possible.

He fired 11500.

If I call, I win 46,600 and go up to over 73k.

I figured the 11500 was the max he thought I'd call with if I had a pocket pair, and that I'd fold if he shoved or bet bigger. I figured a bluff would probably be a bigger bet, as he'd only be risking 15.5k more to really put my feet to the fire, and he already had a big stack entering the hand.

So I laid it down.

Against most opponents, this is a fairly obvious fold, but this guy was entering so many pots, I had to wonder if perhaps he had worse than 88.

Would any of you have found a hero call here?

Would any of you have shoved the turn and represented the king?

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

probably not going to really chime in since I don't play NLHE tournies...

only question would be, what soots were your 8s?

[Dan Druff]

probably not going to really chime in since I don't play NLHE tournies...

only question would be, what soots were your 8s?

One was spade. Obv on turn that didn't matter other than blocking 1 spade for him.

[Lord of the Fraud]

Bet more pre (possibly even shove with 10k already in the middle). 88 is horrible to play against a big-stack tricky pro with your stack size.

He's almost always calling any flop bet regardless of what he had to see what you do on the turn, and the gig was pretty much up once you checked behind.

There really isn't any right answer tbf, but I'd probably shove turn and hate myself afterwards if he called.

As to what he had? I haven't got a fucking clue. But a thin value bet with TJ/TQ is quite possible.

[Dan Druff]

Bet more pre (possibly even shove with 10k already in the middle). 88 is horrible to play against a big-stack tricky pro with your stack size.

He's almost always calling any flop bet regardless of what he had to see what you do on the turn, and the gig was pretty much up once you checked behind.

There really isn't any right answer tbf, but I'd probably shove turn and hate myself afterwards if he called.

As to what he had? I haven't got a fucking clue. But a thin value bet with TJ/TQ is quite possible.

10k isn't in the middle. There's only 4800 in the pot before I act pre.

Can't raise much more pre without shoving for two reasons. One, very few people are 3-betting all that much more than 5800 to a 2300 min-type raise these days. And if I do 3-bet to like 8k, he's probably calling anyway because his stack is big and he's hitting everything.

The bigger problem is that if he calls, I'm pot-committed if I c-bet, (unless I c-bet small, which looks weird given my stack size), whereas with the raise I made, I could put out a 8500 c-bet and give up.

I did think that a ten was most likely for his holdings. He doesn't want to shove and get called by JJ/QQ, but he doesn't want me checking behind with a lower non-set pair when maybe he can get value out of me, so he bets 11.5 knowing I won't raise the rest of my stack unless I have the flush or 77. That's why I laid it down.

[Lord of the Fraud]

Bet more pre (possibly even shove with 10k already in the middle). 88 is horrible to play against a big-stack tricky pro with your stack size.

He's almost always calling any flop bet regardless of what he had to see what you do on the turn, and the gig was pretty much up once you checked behind.

There really isn't any right answer tbf, but I'd probably shove turn and hate myself afterwards if he called.

As to what he had? I haven't got a fucking clue. But a thin value bet with TJ/TQ is quite possible.

10k isn't in the middle. There's only 4800 in the pot before I act pre.

Can't raise much more pre without shoving for two reasons. One, very few people are 3-betting all that much more than 5800 to a 2300 min-type raise these days. And if I do 3-bet to like 8k, he's probably calling anyway because his stack is big and he's hitting everything.

That ante structure threw me off and totally miscalculated what was in the middle before you 3b.

It's such a tricky spot with your stack size to play a mid pair against a wizard. Though I'm obviously never suggesting a fold pre.

[Peter Binklage]

What position are you? Pretty big difference between utg/mp and hj/btn, e.g. he can have more QJo in the latter.

Probably flatting 88 pre in position on 40 bb stacks, especially vs an opponent as aggro and capable as Daniel Strelitz. Getting 4bet here is tragic. Seeing a flop 3-4 ways with 88 and 40 beebs behind is not. I get the impression that you want to 3bet him for the sake of 3betting him, without regard to whether the hand you have works well in a 3bet range.

Your flop cbet is kinda massive by today's MTT standards; the plus side of this is you can prob eliminate big draws that have a lot of incentive to stuff OOP when he just calls. So even though I don't think he has a flush very often on the river, I do think he has better than 88 on the river often enough to justify folding.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

fast forward to 1:21 of this video...

believe they are talking about a $5K 6max from last year...similar spot...guy opens button, berkey's student 3 bets 9s 50bb deep from SB, opener rips it in with Js and the SB calls...from this little clip sounds like berkey advocates just flatting 50bb deep there...guessing at 40bb, closing the action it's probably a close enough spot that you could just flat there...

I've been watching twitch on and off to try to learn NHLE tourneys and it seems like people are ripping there with like 25bb or less (especially in a spot where it's LP v. blinds), so at 40 think that's just a total punt if you rip...think 3 betting just gets you in a load of tricky spots (as you saw), especially against a very good opponent...probably just seems like it's too weak to flat 8s there, but that might be the optimal play given your stack size...



EDIT: Disregard this....thought you were in the blinds...

[sah_24]

Bet more pre (possibly even shove with 10k already in the middle). 88 is horrible to play against a big-stack tricky pro with your stack size.

He's almost always calling any flop bet regardless of what he had to see what you do on the turn, and the gig was pretty much up once you checked behind.

There really isn't any right answer tbf, but I'd probably shove turn and hate myself afterwards if he called.

As to what he had? I haven't got a fucking clue. But a thin value bet with TJ/TQ is quite possible.

10k isn't in the middle. There's only 4800 in the pot before I act pre.

Can't raise much more pre without shoving for two reasons. One, very few people are 3-betting all that much more than 5800 to a 2300 min-type raise these days. And if I do 3-bet to like 8k, he's probably calling anyway because his stack is big and he's hitting everything.

The bigger problem is that if he calls, I'm pot-committed if I c-bet, (unless I c-bet small, which looks weird given my stack size), whereas with the raise I made, I could put out a 8500 c-bet and give up.

I did think that a ten was most likely for his holdings. He doesn't want to shove and get called by JJ/QQ, but he doesn't want me checking behind with a lower non-set pair when maybe he can get value out of me, so he bets 11.5 knowing I won't raise the rest of my stack unless I have the flush or 77. That's why I laid it down.

I agree that if he had the bluffier parts of his range that I think he would just size it bigger vs a guy with your type image. This just reeks of 10x imo, that wants small value on the river

[Dan Druff]

What position are you? Pretty big difference between utg/mp and hj/btn, e.g. he can have more QJo in the latter.

Probably flatting 88 pre in position on 40 bb stacks, especially vs an opponent as aggro and capable as Daniel Strelitz. Getting 4bet here is tragic. Seeing a flop 3-4 ways with 88 and 40 beebs behind is not. I get the impression that you want to 3bet him for the sake of 3betting him, without regard to whether the hand you have works well in a 3bet range.

Your flop cbet is kinda massive by today's MTT standards; the plus side of this is you can prob eliminate big draws that have a lot of incentive to stuff OOP when he just calls. So even though I don't think he has a flush very often on the river, I do think he has better than 88 on the river often enough to justify folding.

Sorry, should've mentioned positions.

I was in the cutoff, and he was two to my right.

I wouldn't have 3-bet it if he were UTG/UTG+1 because from what I saw, most of his raising took place from middle pos or later. So I would have suspected a good and from early, whereas from middle or later he could be doing it with something fairly weak. That's why I 3-bet. Was hoping he'd think, "That middle aged white guy is 3-betting me for the first time ever, better lay down the J7o", and I'd chip up a little without having to see a flop or deal with any soft of tricky play on his part postflop.

The 40 bb stack in this spot was indeed the greatest challenge. Too small to maneuver much postflop without committing my entire stack, and too big to just shove on the initial preflop open.

I agree the c-bet was a bit large by today's standards, but it was still only a little more than half pot, and I wanted to give the appearance of the "middle aged guy who has a real hand and doesn't want to let anyone catch up cheaply" thing.

The board was not dry at all (KT and spades), so if I bet smaller, it's very possible he would look at my shortish stack and think, "He's trying to bet small because he doesn't want to commit the rest of his chips to this, I'm gonna shove with air", and then indeed I'd have to fold.

So I wanted to bet something small enough to fold and not be super-short, but large enough to make it look like I hit the flop.

I agree with the rest of what you said. I, too, though that he would check-raise shove it on the flop if he had QJ or spades, knowing that he was calling my shove anyway, so he might as well just get it in and hope I fold without him having to get there. That part and the river bet size were enough information to where I felt his 11500 river bet was probably something involving a ten (maybe even a weak ten like Th9h), and therefore a call was out of the question. I couldn't shove because there was too high of a chance that he would reluctantly call off the final 15k and bust me.

Anyway, it looks like most people here feel my river fold was correct, and that shoving the turn probably wouldn't have been correct. The only real points of contention here seem to be my preflop 3-bet and the subsequent c-bet size.

I admit I thought of flatting the 88, but it really did seem incredibly weak against a guy who was running over the table by raising a ton of hands from middle/late pos, so I felt it looked strong enough on my part to where there was a good chance he'd fold. If he held something like Th9h, it makes sense why he called and wanted to see a flop, and then my goose was pretty much cooked.

[Dan Druff]

BTW, Strelitz busted 28th.

He got paid a whopping $7,670. 28th out of 1306 gets $7,670 in a $1500 event.

Lol donkaments

Dutch Boyd is chip leader. Dude really does seem to have talent at WSOP events.

Of course, there's no question that Dutch is a really smart guy. Just look at his academic accomplishments as a kid. He was just dragged down by his mental health issues, some of which seem to have improved on medication.

[sah_24]

What position are you? Pretty big difference between utg/mp and hj/btn, e.g. he can have more QJo in the latter.

Probably flatting 88 pre in position on 40 bb stacks, especially vs an opponent as aggro and capable as Daniel Strelitz. Getting 4bet here is tragic. Seeing a flop 3-4 ways with 88 and 40 beebs behind is not. I get the impression that you want to 3bet him for the sake of 3betting him, without regard to whether the hand you have works well in a 3bet range.

Your flop cbet is kinda massive by today's MTT standards; the plus side of this is you can prob eliminate big draws that have a lot of incentive to stuff OOP when he just calls. So even though I don't think he has a flush very often on the river, I do think he has better than 88 on the river often enough to justify folding.

Sorry, should've mentioned positions.

I was in the cutoff, and he was two to my right.

I wouldn't have 3-bet it if he were UTG/UTG+1 because from what I saw, most of his raising took place from middle pos or later. So I would have suspected a good and from early, whereas from middle or later he could be doing it with something fairly weak. That's why I 3-bet. Was hoping he'd think, "That middle aged white guy is 3-betting me for the first time ever, better lay down the J7o", and I'd chip up a little without having to see a flop or deal with any soft of tricky play on his part postflop.

The 40 bb stack in this spot was indeed the greatest challenge. Too small to maneuver much postflop without committing my entire stack, and too big to just shove on the initial preflop open.

I agree the c-bet was a bit large by today's standards, but it was still only a little more than half pot, and I wanted to give the appearance of the "middle aged guy who has a real hand and doesn't want to let anyone catch up cheaply" thing.

The board was not dry at all (KT and spades), so if I bet smaller, it's very possible he would look at my shortish stack and think, "He's trying to bet small because he doesn't want to commit the rest of his chips to this, I'm gonna shove with air", and then indeed I'd have to fold.

So I wanted to bet something small enough to fold and not be super-short, but large enough to make it look like I hit the flop.

I agree with the rest of what you said. I, too, though that he would check-raise shove it on the flop if he had QJ or spades, knowing that he was calling my shove anyway, so he might as well just get it in and hope I fold without him having to get there. That part and the river bet size were enough information to where I felt his 11500 river bet was probably something involving a ten (maybe even a weak ten like Th9h), and therefore a call was out of the question. I couldn't shove because there was too high of a chance that he would reluctantly call off the final 15k and bust me.

Anyway, it looks like most people here feel my river fold was correct, and that shoving the turn probably wouldn't have been correct. The only real points of contention here seem to be my preflop 3-bet and the subsequent c-bet size.

I admit I thought of flatting the 88, but it really did seem incredibly weak against a guy who was running over the table by raising a ton of hands from middle/late pos, so I felt it looked strong enough on my part to where there was a good chance he'd fold. If he held something like Th9h, it makes sense why he called and wanted to see a flop, and then my goose was pretty much cooked.

I think it makes more sense to flat the 88 and 3bet stuff like kx or ax that block the nutted parts of his range if you think hes running the table over. I think you win more than enough pots flatting him in pos

[HoodedN]

I think your biggest mistake in this hand was preflop. I understand why you did it, but you need to ask yourself if you really wanna be playing big pots, even in position, against a big stack who is better than me with a hand that usually doesn’t flop well. He has the chips to float you and definitely will if he thinks he can get you to fold on later streets. You said yourself you have the right, middle aged white guy image.

The wizards nowadays are keeping pots small when in position and trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. They understand tournament life and stack preservation > accumulating early and mid levels of a tournament. Preflop 3 betting is mostly used as bluffs when out of position or only with the very top of your range.

Next time just call in position and try to make it to showdown for the min.

As played I would just fold river since you made your hand strength so transparent checking turn.

Gl in your future endeavors.

[Jayjami]

I think your biggest mistake in this hand was preflop. I understand why you did it, but you need to ask yourself if you really wanna be playing big pots, even in position, against a big stack who is better than me with a hand that usually doesn’t flop well. He has the chips to float you and definitely will if he thinks he can get you to fold on later streets. You said yourself you have the right, middle aged white guy image.

The wizards nowadays are keeping pots small when in position and trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. They understand tournament life and stack preservation > accumulating early and mid levels of a tournament. Preflop 3 betting is mostly used as bluffs when out of position or only with the very top of your range.

Next time just call in position and try to make it to showdown for the min.

As played I would just fold river since you made your hand strength so transparent checking turn.

Gl in your future endeavors.

This is pretty solid analysis. I would add that when you made that bet on the flop, given your stack size and a call, you had to shove on the turn, unless a scary card came. The king was less scary than a spade or a 10. If he is holding a pair of 10s only, it’s a really tough call for him, and if he makes it, so be it. If your image was one of a solid, conservative middle aged white guy (like me), he has to put you on a hand better than 8s. He might call you with a pair of 10s and some draws however. If he called with just a spade draw and got there, shoving on the turn would have been correct, but of course, you’d be on the rail.

[ShawnFanningsLimpDick]

You're beaten approximately 100% of the time on river. With a 40 BB stack you should only be 3-betting for value with hands you'll go broke with pre-flop plus some bluffs like tiny pairs or suited connectors. 88 falls between so you should just flat.

[BeerAndPoker]

People aren't folding to 3 bets in 2018 like they once did so with mid pairs you will get put in spots like this frequently by three betting these type of hands.

88 plays fine to a flat and in the range of hands where pot controlling by not bloating the pot preflop allows you to continue better on some flops by floating or calling because you feel you are ahead,etc...

Sometimes you can call twice on certain boards but it's going to pricey taking the line you did versus someone who seems solid and looking for signs of players who are giving up.

I get that he's got a big stack and trying to play table captain which is annoying you making you feel you have to 3 bet him in hopes to slow him down but keep in mind he also understands this could be what you are thinking too.

Firing 8.5k into 14.1k pot seems a bit too much here as well. As played your 3 bet range would have hit this flop a decent amount but your bet size is looking like protection or a bluff. If you hit the flop with a hand like AK are you taking this same sizing?

Based on the preflop story you've told you could fire a few thousand less and he's likely to play honestly here. It will be difficult for him to raise you without it because of the range you have repped with a 3 bet preflop. From your bet size it looks like you are taking one big stab at it and people will float you if they got the chips seeing if you show weakness later on then pounce on it.

I wouldn't say to never 3bet him here but you should have a solid game plan of how you will continue.

A lot of people would rather 3 bet A8o from certain positions then 88 because A8 blocks a lot of Ax combos and continues poorly postflop most of the time while you can win at showdown with 88 unimproved.

As played probably a fold on the river but you should go with your gut sometimes if you feel like he strongly that he could be putting you in a spot. It's tough given the nature of the tournament to be making calls like this when you can probably conserve your chips putting them to better use. As I mentioned already if opponent believes that you will think this way he can put you in terrible situations with a bet size on the river like this that makes it very difficult on you because you don't want to be wrong and have your stack crippled. If he balances his play with a this size like this lwhen he is bluffing and sometimes when he has it the play works well over the long run.