*** OFFICIAL *** Druff & Friends Show Thread for 05/20/2018 *** 5:30pm PDT start time *** MONSTER $450 FREEROLL!!!!111

[HoodedN]

Still no archive on iTunes a couple hours after he show has finished. Another lost episode?

The “On Air” was flashing the whole time. Last time it didn’t record that was broken.

[Dan Druff]

There was some fail in the show which I decided to edit out. I'm talking about boring/annoying fail, not entertaining fail. Skype problems.

So that took some time. Will be up shortly.

[Dan Druff]

Archives:

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...-in-the-PASTPA

[Sanlmar]

I may make you feel but I can't make you think

I tuned in for Paspa and Daly contributed what were to me some original thoughts.

I am convinced the lines will suck. Daly crystallized my thinking.

I believe only 18 states have casinos. 44 states have lotteries. In those states where casinos don’t exist the mechanism for administering will almost certainly be the bloated and inefficient lottery Commissions.

Daly then drilled into the Mass lottery (the 1st state lottery in US) as an example of how inefficiently lotteries are run and why.

The clear picture Daly painted of the marriage between the lottery system and sports wagering caused me to finally accept that the public will not give two shits about poor lines and lousy returns.

Poor odds are the cornerstone of state lotteries and have discouraged action from the public not one lick. At what point during any legislative discussion will poor odds be a serious concern? Based on what evidence to date? Competitive and fair juice concerns will be laughed out of the room.

I guess the only hope is that in states where big casinos exist, the casinos will lobby or counsel the state on the math. Consider Wynn, to continue Daly’s Massachusetts example. Wynn has a reputation to uphold (I laughed typing that but work with me here) and will have to explain the spread between Vegas and Mass. Not a good look for anyone.

And now the Druff troll:

What we have here is an object lesson in “Light Regulation” playing out in real time.

Government and regulation always have a cost. Most often it is unintended consequences but this time it is straight up inefficiency with a dash of stupidity in wagering.

Be careful what you wish for.

Ironically, Druff is an example of a consumer who makes tens of hundreds of bets in an unregulated free market and has benefitted. You want to pay some kind of juice for government insurance with every bet or assume the risk you are betting with a solid credible book?

Give me an informed public vs big daddy.

Outlets like PFA or the forthcoming Sports Fraud Alert in the Information Age was supposed to be progress. The irony is Druff doesn’t recognize the value of his own site in society.

Let us now all bow our heads and pray.

[MrTickle]

Why can’t the US have betting shops like in the UK? Why does it need to be run by casinos? Our model is much better than the Nevada model. It’s really crazy how far behind you guys are in terms of sports betting.

[Sanlmar]

Why can’t the US have betting shops like in the UK? Why does it need to be run by casinos? Our model is much better than the Nevada model. It’s really crazy how far behind you guys are in terms of sports betting.

I don’t know anything about the UK taxes and juice.

Presently the only sanctioned sports wagering occurs in Nevada casinos. We are a backward and puritanical country.

I will argue betting in Nevada casinos is the perfect model. It works because the state of Nevada cares mightily about its primary industry.

Over the years the Nevada state tax on the sports wagering handle has been reduced. The casinos and the legislature have worked together to achieve success. Nevada was arguing to have the Federal Sports Handle Betting Tax reduced or eliminated before the Supreme Court ruled on PASPA. They are doing gods work and understand how their bread is buttered.

It would be interesting to delve into the UK. How it came about. How efficiently it is run and taxed. Maybe some lessons can be learned.

There is always a driving force behind these things. It was that Fat Fuck Chris Christie in the US. His face should be put on the $100 bill. Who was it in the UK?

[BCR]

Enjoyed all the sports betting talk. Daly was a great contributor. It’s funny, I walked away a few times and when I got back, I thought you had China on. His NE accent is always there, but it seems to fade in and out.

I tend to think the lines will suck, at least initially. I stand behind people three deep buying scratch offs every day with a 50% rake. They aren’t concerned about the schools. I can’t see the states leaving all those fish off the hook.

That’s actually what I see as the offshore and local bookies biggest problem initially, until the market gets sophisticated. That they’ll be left with people who understand you can’t beat -120. They’ll lose the droolers to the states and keep those that have a clue. They’ll have to wait for their payday.

I usually find Ken colorful and entertaining. I’m with khalawat. He was really insufferable last night. He kept interrupting in a way I haven’t noticed before, and it was a hard listen.

[chinamaniac]

Enjoyed all the sports betting talk. Daly was a great contributor. It’s funny, I walked away a few times and when I got back, I thought you had China on. His NE accent is always there, but it seems to fade in and out.

I tend to think the lines will suck, at least initially. I stand behind people three deep buying scratch offs every day with a 50% rake. They aren’t concerned about the schools. I can’t see the states leaving all those fish off the hook.

That’s actually what I see as the offshore and local bookies biggest problem initially, until the market gets sophisticated. That they’ll be left with people who understand you can’t beat -120. They’ll lose the droolers to the states and keep those that have a clue. They’ll have to wait for their payday.

I usually find Ken colorful and entertaining. I’m with khalawat. He was really insufferable last night. He kept interrupting in a way I haven’t noticed before, and it was a hard listen.

Dalys hometown is like 3 towns away from mine

[MrTickle]

Got to your mention of me. I caught the end but missed the start as I fell asleep before 3am. It’s my second time here in Venice (last one was 10 years ago) and it’s somewhat cleaner but a LOT busier. Cruise ships just bringing people in. It’s crazy.

Loads of Americans here too - can spot them from a mile off. So many grown men wearing college sports gear, can spot them from a mile off.

Heading to Bellagio tomorrow so I guess with Venice and Bellagio I’ve got myself a Vegas themed trip here in Italy.

Love the show, keep it up.

Some more photos for you. You can see the water is quite green (but in real life it looks more blue than green). Also I caught a cruise ship leaving while looking down a canal and you can see the scale of these things compared to the city. I heard they’re planning to ban them sailing down the grand canal.

[BCR]

One other thought once sportsbetting is legal. You’ll be shocked how many in front of you are playing 4 and 6 team parlays. I used to escort the local bookies around UAW facilities and do them myself at times when I was involved in organized labor leadership. Women, people who don’t watch, they loved to plunk down $20 on 4 team parlay cards paying the wrong odds. 8-1 on 4 teamers. The 6 team was particularly egregious at like 16-1. Absolutely ate them up. They left that large facility with a $100k every week and a stack of cards and returned with the $10k to pay the winners. When they get offered whatever odds the state offers, which will still blow away those parlay card odds, they won’t be able to resist.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Enjoyed all the sports betting talk. Daly was a great contributor. It’s funny, I walked away a few times and when I got back, I thought you had China on. His NE accent is always there, but it seems to fade in and out.

I tend to think the lines will suck, at least initially. I stand behind people three deep buying scratch offs every day with a 50% rake. They aren’t concerned about the schools. I can’t see the states leaving all those fish off the hook.

That’s actually what I see as the offshore and local bookies biggest problem initially, until the market gets sophisticated. That they’ll be left with people who understand you can’t beat -120. They’ll lose the droolers to the states and keep those that have a clue. They’ll have to wait for their payday.

I usually find Ken colorful and entertaining. I’m with khalawat. He was really insufferable last night. He kept interrupting in a way I haven’t noticed before, and it was a hard listen.

LOL glad it wasn't just me...

great segment...if daly is right on the whole lotto commission thing, god that's gonna be such a fail...you are right BCR, people will stand in line to buy shit that has 30-40-50% juice and not blink an eye...

on san's point that wynn has an "image" to protect, I think that's why we will see dime lines in states that run this shit outta casinos...if PA casinos start out at 15/20 cent lines then they should immediately switch all their low stakes BJ games to 6:5...

I believe I saw on the ESPN crawl last week that Monmouth park in NJ is going to start taking wagers this weekend...will be interesting to hear about what their lines are...I may drive out there just because why the fuck not, but I'm sure it's gonna be an absolute clusterfuck...

EDIT: was half right...http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf...ports_bet.html

"We should allow Monmouth Park to start taking bets on Memorial Day," Christie told NJ Advance Media in a phone interview.

"You can't just look at the tax revenue," he said. "You have to also look at the residual of more people coming to New Jersey (to place bets)."

Christie's comments came after the state stumbled out of the gate when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of New Jersey-led lawsuit that paved the way for expanded sports betting nationwide.

After the ruling, Monmouth Park announced it would be ready by May 28. But then the state's top lawmaker, state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, told the racetrack to stand down.

He introduced language to legislation to regulate the industry that says anyone who opens a sports betting operation in New Jersey before the state enacts such a law will be barred from accepting future bets on games.


EDIT 2: It's a William hill shop...wonder if they'll have props...

[Sanlmar]

I see HoodedN down there. What’s up guy?

The Foxwoods dealers are in the United Autoworkers Workers (UAW) union.

I always loved that trivia tidbit.

Post some Foxwoods stuff of your own sometime.

[abrown83]

Regulation change run by State governments and new line providers is going to create advantage spots.

I can think of a handful off the top of my head.

I never joined the betting section here, maybe I will and post some ideas in there. Protected away from Google.

[Belly Buster]

Weekly donkament results. PainlessWon wins painlessly in a bigger-than-usual field this week.

Tournament=Radio Donkament
Number=837
BuyIn=0+0
PrizeBonus=12000
MultiplyBonus=No
Entrants=77
Late=10
Tickets=0
Removed=0
Rebuys=0
AddOns=0
RebuyCost=0+0
NetBonus=12000
StopOnChop=No
Start=2018-05-20 18:30:05
Place77=donkey (0)
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Place13=sah_24 (0)
Place12=nolimitles (0)
Place11=Gordman (0)
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Place5=G0lfer (960)
Place4=v12cl (1200)
Place3=ErinMicunt (1500)
Place2=JERKAR (2160)
Place1=PainlessWon (3480)
Stop=2018-05-20 21:12:25

[MumblesBadly]

I see HoodedN down there. What’s up guy?

The Foxwoods dealers are in the United Autoworkers Workers (UAW) union.

I always loved that trivia tidbit.

Post some Foxwoods stuff of your own sometime.

That explains why some of the dealers I had the few times I was there were the god-awful slowest on the planet. One older woman who had apparently just returned from disability dealt about 4 hands per half-hour. And they rotated the same 4 dealers through the same tables during their shifts, so we had her 3 more times in the next 8 hours.

[Dan Druff]

Why can’t the US have betting shops like in the UK? Why does it need to be run by casinos? Our model is much better than the Nevada model. It’s really crazy how far behind you guys are in terms of sports betting.

I agree that the US needs to look at first-world countries doing it successfully if they want to put together a successful sportsbetting model. They don't need to reinvent the wheel.

[Dan Druff]

Regulation change run by State governments and new line providers is going to create advantage spots.

I can think of a handful off the top of my head.

I never joined the betting section here, maybe I will and post some ideas in there. Protected away from Google.

That forum died.

You can also post on the "Dan Druff's Sorta Secret Forum". Google can't access that either.

[LastPaperTowel]

Good Time tonight Todd. Been on with Drexal and China before but this was my first Druff Show appearance.

Hello

Daly was good on the show. imo

I was going to call in, but Alec Toereli said it was late and past my bed time. He read me a short story called Little Red Riding Hood 2.0. It was awesome.

Basically The little slut in Red decides to team up with the Big Bad Wolf and open a Crypto TShirt Store that overtakes Exxon in 2021 as the largest company of all time human history. Great Read. I fell asleep in Alec's lap. Good thing he is so limber.

Peace

LPT