So a few weeks ago I binked a big pick four and pick 3 horse racing ticket .

If you know about horse racing it is in a way like poker . There is skill involved and if you truly pay attention to ONE track and follow the horses and make trip notes and know trainer patterns and jockey patterns you can make money and a lot of it . So tonight I was waiting for Evangeline downs my main track that I do pick 4's at . They only race on Wed, Thurs, Friday, and Saturday .

The absolute must thing in a pick 4 ticket is you have to roll with a single in one leg of the sequence . This is rule written in stone for any serious pick 4 player. Also you always want to have a race in the sequence that could produce a big longshot . Not a stretch at Evangeline downs . If anybody remembers the last big ticket I hit had an 85-1 shot in the ticket .


Tonight looked promising as I had a sure fire single in the second leg . The first leg of the pick 4 was the 6th race a field of 7 runners going a mile on the dirt. This race was going to have an over bet horse that was not as strong as the money it was going to take . This spells opportunity so I go five deep in here using a viable longshot in the #1 horse Run Bayou Bird who ran evenly last time out but that was on the turf and now was making a surface switch . I had 4 others in the race one of which broke a leg during the race but in the end Run Bayou Bird closed late up the rail to nail Battle Colors the #5 at the wire . Run Bayou bird at a huge overlay goes off at 49-1

First leg in the books success Horse paid $100.40 and knocked out probably 95% of the tickets in the pool .


Leg two was up next and my whole ticket was riding on the #2 horse Vision To Win It . Appropriately named for my ticket . This horse basically would of had to lose the jockey or break a leg to lose . Going off at 2-5 it won easily and my singe was in the books . Paying $2.80 for the win


Onward to race three and the whole point of what most will find useless drivel . In race 8 there where nine runners and I'm covering 5 of them . I have 4-5-6-7-8 and this race is being run at a mile on the dirt. Race plays out the way I expected the 1 horse runs off early setting good fractions and I have 2 horses stalking 2 in mid pack and my late deep closer in the back last . They hit the turn and one of my stalkers starts to fade and the other engages the leader at the top of the stretch and my deep closer is at full speed now. Half way through the turn I noticed the #2 horse in 4th sort of sneaking along the fence and felt like Joe Piscopo in the movie wise guys when Frank the Fixer had them go bet on the Race for the Mob Boss. My #4 takes the lead at the top of the stretch and I am praying now that the #2 who I know has horse either comes off the fence altering course or gets blocked by the fading #1 on the rail . As all this is happening I am watching my #6 Deep closer just motoring down the center of the track. They get to deep stretch and the #2 finds room with his horrible jockey and weak trainer I see it and I know what's coming the #6 is still coming and fast the four is done and here is the wire and my ticket gets blown to bits .


To add insult to injury I hit the last leg .

The toughest part to swallow is I had it. To get a $100.00 horse in any pick 4 sequence just doesn't happen or present itself often enough that a miss can happen. I suppose my point to all this is I see people complain about poker run bad or sports run bad or variance. Now the $62.50 ticket doesn't amount to much in the big picture it represents less then 1% of my pick 4 bankroll . Just like in a poker hand you have to learn from mistakes made and I have tried for the past two hours to figure out how I could have played the ticket different . After much evaluation I see no viable way I could of come up with the winner of the 8th race unless I hit the all button and I very rarely do that because in the long run its negative EV to buy races . I also looked at what if I was going to add 2 more horses to the 8th race and still wouldn't have had the #2 horse .


Just like the great book the poker mindset it is very hard to put missed opportunities behind you and move forward and be a productive player.

I suppose writing this post will help me move forward to tomorrow .

As always
Good Luck
Gookie