Originally Posted by JMM
McKinzie was more toward the beginning of this month.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...8_unlikely_123
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...-for-mckinzie/
http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-c...207898359.html
He's also not on the leaderboard for the Derby:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Thanks for the links
here is a link to past performances http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf
i wish i could deliver you a longshot. who knows. maybe one from the bottom of this group will get there. or maybe noble indy or my girl jackie will surprise. i will look for lustrious coats and class exuding gait and pass this on to you once i'm in the know.
all these previous derby favorites all the time makes he wish for chaos from the days of old. but sadly...i don't think it will happen. that doesn't mean the derby still won't play a pretty penny. sure it prolly won't be a super big $1k exacta. but it might be decent. and triples involving one of the fav's winning and 8/10 horses could play handsomely.
with furthere ado.
8-flameaway- why flameaway? why not my girl jackie or noble indy? good question. i reserve the rght to change #8...lol
i like flameaway "because of his pedigree and the breeding and what i've seen as a 2 yr old."....obv i'm pulling a ken roudolph here, and it's sounds like nonsense, because it is..but it doesn't mean it won't hit....
flameaway is a fighter. the horse puts out on the front end and hangs around all the time. he's prolly not good enough but he battles and should be in position. what can i say i'm a sucker for the 8th-12th betting choice and needed a horse to put here and a potential monster number if he finishes at least 2nd. realistically though, he prolly won't do it. but he really didn't go down without a fight vs good majik....so that does offer a lil hope and some ray of hope..
7-solomini-
here's a horse we're all expecting to run better than he has. maybe what he's given is all he's got? something tells me there's more in tank and all they need to do is find the missing key. . i can't place it, but I like the way he's been finishing races and he may just needs some jolt soda or a faster pace to swarm late. i can't see him running the same race 3x in a row..... his odds should be pretty high and the exotics should be as well. he got better in every race as a two yr old and this race will be his third off the bench at three. throw in baffert and it's an overlay imo. have to like the fact that he should be in mid pack as well, or maybe a lil forwardly placed for maximum effort. i won't go crazy but this is going to be the first time you'll get bomb squad odds on this horse.
6- bolt
if he had won the SA derby he would have been higher. he ran well but was no match for justy....and it wasn't like there were any horses good enough to catch him for 2nd in those soft fractions either. castellano jumping off him isn't a ringing endorsement as well. maybe if they go faster up front he'll close the gap better? certainly possible, but horse reminds me of several in the race. it's kind of uncanny how similar a few of these horses look imo. what if bolt doesn't get away strongly? that wouldn't bode well if he's behind many horses. you can't rule a mid pack start shuffled to a degree as well. the more i talk about him the more i'm discounting him. don't know he'll he'll be odds wise in exotics but i would think he'll be lower than he should be. still. his best race puts him in the thick of it. or at least the top 6/7 which is really nothing to be ashamed of in this class action field.
5-magnum moon
every race is better than the last. didn't fk around in the ark derby piking them in a slow fraction workout. good news is that he doesn't need the need lead, and you don't know how good he his yet. how can you knock the horse?. he looks like a serious playa with tactcal speed and potential untapped greatness. one thing people won't like is him being a little green in the deep stretch running diagonally. they'll also say he might not be fast enough for reasons not using him..but we really don't know that. could pletcher finish 1/2/3.....can't rule it out.
4- mendy
getting to be crunch time...well i'm putting the 2nd betting choice or maybe even co favorite 4th........what an upset mided capper i am...haaaaa
can't knock what's he's done. track record performance in the UAE should put the fear in everyone not using him. clearly no horse like this has every came out of the UAE and beat G1 juvy turfers like this horse,,,,,, i know he had to run those times but he's stll this years money burning UAE horse. plus,...you also have to deal with a different kind of dirt at CD (i don't know if that's true, but it prolly is and i need filler...haha) and will have to be a can of monster energy drink to wire this field should he try. some say he doesn't have to be on the lead. and he prolly doesn't... well,..that's good for him and his bettors bad for those that don't use him. sadly, you're gonna get a short price as well. no frikken value at all.......throw in the fact that it doesn't seem possible imo to run that UAE race at churchill. that race might be very tolling. can't deny he was being whipped in deep stretch to prolly go for the record. the horse was fully extended and regression does seem likely. + maybe he won't acclimate well? maybe post won't be kind?..and like i said, he might not take to the track at all......he's no slam dunk 1st or 2nd with this strong group even if conditions are great for him. i'll use him underneath but if he wins i prolly will only have a couple of savers in triples which i prolly won't hit anyway...hahaha....this horse is all kinds of awful value and risk vs
3-good magic
you have to luv you some good majk. i can't argue any point that most of you already know or read. it looks like a first fight effort is coming. it's as plain as day.
although the FOY and BG do seem second rate tour to get to the derby, he did take care of biness like BTO does in the song. i really never gave his derby horses much of a look because they didn't look good enough imo. and obv most of them weren't. but brown deserves respect here.
seems like all systems go to go along with tactical speed. he;ll obv have to improve, but that looks like it's coming as well, and he already did that cycle last here pulling it off.
if you don't want to recognze that and say he's to slow, then, well, you can do that. but with his history already doing it, and brown saying the horse gives him is best chance ever, it's easy peasy. only question is what hs odds will be.
2- justify
bang, bang....horse will have his share of critics. i can't argue that. horse has only 3 races which is less than ideal. the slow SA strip makes it seem even less impressive to some. i can see why he'll have detractors, much like mendy,. even with him beating bolt by open lengths people found a way to critize him. and outside of bolt he hasn't beaten anything.
how slow is the SA strip in away we can quantify it?. i really dont know and i really wonder if it's even possible to gage it vs the other tracks. i really don't follow any speed figs so that won't do much for me rationalizing it.
i guess you just have to have faith that the times are even faster than posted because if it, and it's prolly already known that it is to some extent.
i don't want to pay much attention to works so that will solve the question either. but bolt a top 3 horse before the SA derby and justy said see ya to him.
horse doesn't seem sexy to use as a favorite imo, and non sexy once again as a low odd horse. but he should be on your ticket in some way shape or form if you're trying to win and not goofing off trying to get a $1k exacta home
Some real good posts in here.
I personally like my boy jack. Fairgrounds horses have been killing it. He didn't have to win the LA derby. He will be a longshot but definitely has to be used imo.
Heard some negative things about audible.
My favorite bets to make (beting offshore) are the vs matchups, i.e. who will finish ahead of who. I plan on using my boy jack in multiple wagers of those...if he finishes near the back then it's gonna be a big loss for me.
Any update on the above 5 horse trifecta box? TIA.Thinking the 5 hose box for a trifecta is the way to go. It's only $60 and you can put in a shot or two and pray they can place or show.
i don't recommend a 5 horse triple box.Any update on the above 5 horse trifecta box? TIA.
0.50 trip key...
5/6-7-11-14-16 = $10
7/5-6-11-14-16 = $10
5/6-7-11-14-16/4 = $2.50
7/5-6-11-14-16/4 = $2.50
6/5/4-7-11-14-16= $2.50
57/57/9-10-17 = $6.00
$10 win on audible = $10.00
So you talked about all these horses you liked and you ended up betting chalk, chalk and chalk?
audible is 4th choice. 8-1 is no favorite.
So you talked about all these horses you liked and you ended up betting chalk, chalk and chalk?
great value in betting him because he should be co favorite. the top 6 horses lay over the field for the most part. if there was a longshot i thought could win. i would bet him.
1- audible
how can you not like the horse.
will most likely be 4th choice in the win column goving you anywere from 6-1/10-1 odds. that's a huge overlay for a horse that should be the favorite.
i've said in many posts you rarely see a horse with such an explosive move like his. well, one up close anyway. it's almost like he has a turbo boost to utilize anytime he wants to. to top it off each race is better than the next, so it's more than conceiveable he's going to get better. not much to slam. i guess you could say his fla derby was slower than you would like for a top KD contender and he didn't beat much. but that's a reach imo. the track wasn't fast that day and he showed a nice dimension. his holy bull was one of the best races of any 3 yr old this year. when free drop looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch JJ gave a quick rap and it was all over
as for johnnie v picking vino over him.....lmao. that move has nothing to do with vino's talent being greater and everything to do with loyalty to repole and company with their bottomless wallet. to think otherwise is to be foolish. this horse is much more talented than vino, and to boot, you get castellano, who is beter than johnnie anyway. so it's even better for the horse and your bets.
nothing much else to say..he's getting better, is fast, has a good post, and has tactical speed.....he comes out on top of most of my "what if" scenarios as well...........wtf else do you want for 8-1.......lol
i'm sure he's at the top of many peoples speed ratings if that thing floats your boat as well
Playing the #11- Bolt D'oro 8-1 morning Line. Will be lower before Post. Owned and Trained by Mick Ruiz, Jockey is Triple Crown Winner Victor Espinosa.
Bolt peaked my interest in the Santa Anita Derby. His momentum was stalled twice on a line change outta the final turn and in the stretch. The rail opened up and Bolt's jockey at the time, Corey Nakatani, veered to the rail to take the line. Justify (ridden by Mike Smith) had the lead and moved inside to stop Bolt's momentum. Justify pulled away in final 100m. Credit to Mike Smith as much as the horse, he won the race. It was a masterful ride by Mike Smith, not so much for Nakatani. So Mick Ruiz switched jockeys and Victor Espinosa has the mount.
Mainly play the Derby light. There are so many better spots. The pools are inflated at other tracks. Due to all the day tourist money at the hubs for Derby Day.
Good Luck all! Riders Up!
Audible...Florida Derby winner.
Good Magic...I just like the name. You know that some bitch will pick this horse and look like a genius if he wins.
Justify...All that jockey Mike Smith needs to win is a good horse and this is a great horse but how does he race on a wet, muddy, rainy racetrack?
Mendelssohn...could he become the first foreign horse to win the Kentucky Derby? I doubt it. Go back to Europe.
On a muddy, sloppy, rainy racetrack it might be time to bet on some long-shots.
Churchill Downs - Race #12 $ 120 Straight (5: 10/10/10 , 11: 10/10/10 , 14: 10/10/10 , 16: 10/10/10
Churchill Downs - Race #12 $ 5 Exacta (5, 11, 14, 16 / 5, 11, 14, 16)
$1 Super
7/11/18 over
7/11/18 over
6/8/12 over
6/8/12
Mulva what kind of grown man knows so much about horses? Were You one of those young boys who wanted a pony? You still haven’t answered my proposition in the global poker thread last I checked.
Sloppy Track Pouring Rain in Louisville
Well this is a HORRIBLE wagering event and I am sitting here with not a single opinion on this race anymore so I will just toss a dart and go with a horse who should love the slop
$100 W, P, S #9 Hofburg
Good Luck
Gookie
On a side note Fuck You Ashley Judd. How the fuck did NBC think she should be on the telecast. Horrible choice . Much rather would have looked at Jennifer Lawrence . Total Fail on NBC"S part
YAWWWWWWNNNNN
What a snooze fest . Justify wins in a walk over
Ok back to the crap tracks
Evangeline and Prarie Meadows
A $1 Trifecta paid $141.40
A $2 Superfecta paid $19,618.20
Justify-(7)
Good Magic-(6)
Audible-(5)
Surprisingly, weather was not a factor.
I believe the result would have been same if there was no rain on a sunny day.
I got lucky hit a trifecta and another bet on Justify.
Wish I bet more.
Justify should win The Preakness with easy.
Fewer horses. Only questions are who will be 2nd and 3rd.
Unbelievable!!!
Bettor at Texas' Retama Park turns $18 Pick 5 Derby Day wager into $1.2M
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...?sf188995413=1
She picked five straight winners in Races 8-12 at Churchill Downs.Margaret Reid, from Austin, Texas won $1.2 million with her $18 Pick 5 bet, placed almost 1,100 miles away, at Retama Park, in Selma, Texas.
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