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Thread: Kentucky Derby

  1. #1
    Platinum mulva's Avatar
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    Kentucky Derby

    these are my early thoughts. i will be back with a horse by horse analysis

    this KD seems more loaded with more talent than we've seen in years. however, that will not necessarly make it a great bettng race. the favorites here seem to stand out, and you're not just dealing with one horse here. as far as pecking order goes, it only gets a little gray after the first 1/3 of the field.


    it' s very difficult to come up that longshot (should there be one) considering what the horse will have to overcome and beat this year. and by longshot i mean a horse not in the top 1/3 of the field.

    when i handicap the derby i try and envision the race and how it's gonna break down. it's not that difficult to do for the most part. but its near impossible to play closers and accuratly call and predict the race doing that. and it just doesn't happen with the new system anymore. they just don't fire or never reach anymore because of it. there's no sprinters messing up the race and it's much less of a free for all. sure they can finish underneath in some scenarnios but this year your looking at lee type is going to have to beat some really solid horses to finish 2nd.

    what really stinks betting wise this year is most of the contenters have tactical speed as well. that means any or all will be in great position this race, making it even harder for one of the 2/3 of the feld to beat out the top 1/3 of horses.

    right now there are 3 standouts. audible, mendy and justy.

    after that there's a solid grouping right behind.

    bolt, good magic, magnum moon...after the top six things get a little grey..but theres still an order to them for the most part. i won't split hairs discussing it yet. and being that it's a little more cloudy it's harder to predict.

    these are your fringe horses.....some closer to filling out the top ten and and some towards the bottom.

    you can catacterise most of them as longshots, fill ins, fyers, closers and slower horses for the most part. sure i'm not talking about everyone of these 14 horses. but you're going to have to make decisions as you cannot play 1/2 the field. that is unless you part wheel triples and exactas.

    what i'm saying is don't get distracted with tunnel vision on your longshot and thnk you're going to hot a $1500 exacta. play him with the horses that will prolly win. if your longshot does come it it will still pay 3 digits for the most part.

    just imagine the top 3 not being in the race. i'm sure most would say it would be wide open if that were the case. but i'm not so sure. after the top three, the three>five horses underneath seem more solid than the rest of the field.

    as for longshots. you really want to try an pick a horse trending up for a big race, or poised for an improvement. I like to try and find a horse that will be be in decent position as well and was competitive vs the horses in the top six

    this year after going over things a few times i've landed on flameaway and solomini three weeks out without post positions....they check a few of my boxes and seem like longshots to take a flyer on. but even selecting them, not only do they have to beat horses that they just lost to, they have to beat the top three horses as well. sure,...you could like a couple of different horses than these two but these are my longshost as of writing this. i'm sure i can come up with one or two more but you have to make signifigant cuts.

    in scanning over the probable field i find it very easy to X out several horses because the top 1/3 of this field is so strong. that doesn't mean one of these won't step up and run the race of his life, or benefit from a weird speed duel, or great trip somehow.... it just seems very unlikely they will. throw in the fact that any closer that finishes 5th in the KD is a success for the most part

    hofburg
    my boy jack
    enticed
    noble indy
    vino rossi
    quip
    lone sailor
    gronkowski
    bravazzo
    promises fufill
    free drop billy
    firenze fire
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



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  3. #3
    do you ever take the jockey into account in races like this? Are the jockeys kinda married to the horse at this point in the year already, so its not worth talking about? Are there any jockey difference-makers? In the list of x amount of things you take into account, how far down the list is the jockey?
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    Platinum mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly View Post
    do you ever take the jockey into account in races like this? Are the jockeys kinda married to the horse at this point in the year already, so its not worth talking about? Are there any jockey difference-makers? In the list of x amount of things you take into account, how far down the list is the jockey?
    there are definitely some jocks you want more than others. but in a race like this you bet the horse and i feel the edge is minimal in most cases.

    one thing to look at is if the jock had his choice on which horse to choose. obv if the jock has driven two horses and they both make in here. his value is important. especially if he feels A is better than B. it carry some weight, but it's not the end all
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  5. #5
    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Good shit, Mulva.

    I think Justify certainly looks the part. But there's a lot going against him, if a person were to want to exclude him from their win slot. Storm Cat. Apollo Curse. Justify has only raced against 14 horses total in his races. It's hard to predict how he's going to react with 19 others around him, in one race. That's some scary shit for the horse who's definitely going to be the betting favorite on Derby Day.

    I don't like throwing Vino Rosso out. I've actually got him as one of my top horses to win the Derby. He checks a lot of boxes for me. Buckpasser, Raise a Native, fast 3/8, 1/8 time in the Wood (I know there was the bump on the stretch, but he was also pushed out wide early on, and recovered). I like him a lot.

    Magnum Moon looks like he can run forever. Those final fractions, when taking into account how he drifted out, were quite impressive.

    My top 8 in no particular order:

    Bolt
    Mendy
    Justify
    Audible
    Flameaway
    Vino Rosso
    Magnum Moon
    Good Magic

    Of which, if I'm blindly tossing one, it's Good Magic.

  6. #6
    I was at a food show last week held by one of my suppliers at Santa Anita. Got to meet Bob Baffert, the trainer of Justify. Talked to him and he thinks he is a legit Triple Crown Threat. He seemed pretty candid about it so I don’t think he was just saying it because it was his horse. He was a pretty nice guy. It was a non-racing day so I assume he was their working some horses out or something. Said he saw all the people and decided to check out the food show. The buddy I was with once dated a niece of Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg and brought him up. Bob said that when he first got into the business Jack gave him 2 pieces of advice to be successful .....never get divorced, never buy your own farm. He said Van Berg died shortly after doing both
    "I wouldn't trade places with Marty for all the money in the world, and Ií m a nigger.Ē
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by hutmaster View Post
    I was at a food show last week held by one of my suppliers at Santa Anita. Got to meet Bob Baffert, the trainer of Justify. Talked to him and he thinks he is a legit Triple Crown Threat. He seemed pretty candid about it so I donít think he was just saying it because it was his horse. He was a pretty nice guy. It was a non-racing day so I assume he was their working some horses out or something. Said he saw all the people and decided to check out the food show. The buddy I was with once dated a niece of Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg and brought him up. Bob said that when he first got into the business Jack gave him 2 pieces of advice to be successful .....never get divorced, never buy your own farm. He said Van Berg died shortly after doing both


    Baffert is an asshat. What else is he suppose to say Hut?

    Baffert has a horse or two every year in the Derby. He likes them all. Its a process of elimination for him . When you start out with so many young horses that are all well bred . Ask Baffert how he felt about Mine that Bird . LMAO!!!

    The Derby is one of the worst races in history to wager on unless you have deep pockets . Every trainer thinks they can win and every horse has a legitimate chance to win.

    Mulva : As far as your jockey angle. If a jockey has a choice of rides it is usually not the pinhead jockey who choses which horse to ride. It is there agent who makes that choice most of the time and the reasoning behind the choices are usually not what you would think.


    Good Luck
    Gookie

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    Mulva : As far as your jockey angle. If a jockey has a choice of rides it is usually not the pinhead jockey who choses which horse to ride. It is there agent who makes that choice most of the time and the reasoning behind the choices are usually not what you would think.
    Please expound on this.
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  9. #9
    Fairly cut and dry Crowe :

    When a jockey works for different trainers and is not on contract he or she might get listed on two horses or even three horses during entry submission . When such jockey is listed on multiple horses they have to chose which horse they want to ride. This choice is 99% of the time made by the jockeys agent . Based on many factors but for example jockey is named on 2 horses . Trainer A has a nice maiden set to race in a few weeks . Trainer B has a string of horses and jockey usually rides for him but is not contracted to do so. Agent makes deal with Trainer A if jockey rides for you in this race you guarantee the mount on nice maiden . Trainer B wonders why jockey chose Trainer A but is fine with it and finds another jockey.

    There are many other factors but this is a good example

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    Fairly cut and dry Crowe :

    When a jockey works for different trainers and is not on contract he or she might get listed on two horses or even three horses during entry submission . When such jockey is listed on multiple horses they have to chose which horse they want to ride. This choice is 99% of the time made by the jockeys agent . Based on many factors but for example jockey is named on 2 horses . Trainer A has a nice maiden set to race in a few weeks . Trainer B has a string of horses and jockey usually rides for him but is not contracted to do so. Agent makes deal with Trainer A if jockey rides for you in this race you guarantee the mount on nice maiden . Trainer B wonders why jockey chose Trainer A but is fine with it and finds another jockey.

    There are many other factors but this is a good example
    When we are talking about a jockey choosing one horse over another in the 5th race at Belmont on Thursday you would be correct, however there is more significance to a jockey choosing to ride one horse over another in a race like the Derby.
    "I wouldn't trade places with Marty for all the money in the world, and Ií m a nigger.Ē
    -Kenneth

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by hutmaster View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    Fairly cut and dry Crowe :

    When a jockey works for different trainers and is not on contract he or she might get listed on two horses or even three horses during entry submission . When such jockey is listed on multiple horses they have to chose which horse they want to ride. This choice is 99% of the time made by the jockeys agent . Based on many factors but for example jockey is named on 2 horses . Trainer A has a nice maiden set to race in a few weeks . Trainer B has a string of horses and jockey usually rides for him but is not contracted to do so. Agent makes deal with Trainer A if jockey rides for you in this race you guarantee the mount on nice maiden . Trainer B wonders why jockey chose Trainer A but is fine with it and finds another jockey.

    There are many other factors but this is a good example
    When we are talking about a jockey choosing one horse over another in the 5th race at Belmont on Thursday you would be correct, however there is more significance to a jockey choosing to ride one horse over another in a race like the Derby.


    Yes while I can agree with that Hut. Many times when we are talking Derby horses Jockeys are contractually locked in months before the race . I also would not think for one second that a jockey does not make a difference in the derby. Just like the young horses jockeys have made many blunders in high profile races. To me the modern day derby is a bettors worst nightmare . Is it a fun race ? Yes

    When trying to handicap how twenty 3 yr old horses will react to 100k plus fans on track and how they will race in line with there past performances is insanity. I will agree that you can possibly make a small fortune on the race throw any handicapping skills out the window . There are many people who are lifetime winners in this race because they have one simple angle . They bet on all twenty horses to win.

    Of course everything I have said here goes out the window when you have an obvious standout but then the odds are not true . One angle I have found to be profitable in the past 20 years is to bet the Belmont pick three . I find 2-3 horses I like in the first 2 legs and then bet every horse in the 3rd leg except the obvious Derby , Preakness winner . Has worked very well in certain situations. Anyways I love the horse race convo going on here .

     
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  12. #12
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    noble indy

    another light raced horse that has improved with every start. i will be a little less judgemental of him finishing 3rd to bravazzo and lone sailor in third lifetime start in a G2 because of the nice win with blinks in the la derby. horse also beat mississippi in an allow in 142 in his 2nd start. in any other derby this horse would be getting more buzz. horse should be in shouting distance as well. i won't talk you out of using him underneath as a longshot play with some teeth. don't know where to place him here, but his future does look bright


    quip

    quip is nice horse. third race off the bench and maybe there's more improvement coming? doesn't look likely going further imo. i hated the way he caved to magnum moon but what i didnt like more is that solomini and combatant almost closed in on him even though they didn't go fast early. good news is that he'll be forwardly placed and he ddn't have to run hard in the ark, as he already had a spot in the derby locked up. bad news is that he looks like he;ll be outfiinishsed by several. still anytime you have some tactical speed and/or in position you can hang around..at least for a while.




    enticed

    as i joked in the vino post. sure enticed his nice horse but this is the KD. not the wood or gotham. rossi went right by him and i can;t say i'm comepletely surprised he did. enticed just looks like he's a notch below. he should be up in the front of the middle of the pack so he might be in position. but in position for what? he looks like he'll be outfinished by many regardless



    vino rossi

    extra, extra, read all about it. haskins has this horse at #1 for two straight weeks.. it's amazing what a big throrograph # and sharp workouts can cloud a seasoned pro. imagine if the horse had a flowing mane and silkience conditioned coat...oh boy.....

    let's face facts here. i pointed out before that this horse could have taken the tapwrit career path. but he didn't even do that. i thought this horse was poised for a big effort in the TB derby. i admit, i loved the horse, i thought he would win there. but he raced pretty poorly for the most part. this after being acclimated to the TB track in the previous race and a decent/nice 3rd place finish to flameaway 142 change.

    i believe the truth is we all overvalued the horse. and after the dud in the TB derby, pletcher finds the easiest prep on the board in the wood. holy crap....that field was awful. you really couldn't pick any horse other than vino and enticed. even roman's 147 maiden winner took money not to mention restoring hope. people were also looking at cheap allowance horse off 3 months...lol

    sure enough, he rumbles by enticed to win. but he didn;t even have to get better to do this. he just had to be better than the horses in the race, which he was. christ....... enticed isn't even that fast. i would go so far and say he's slower than chit vs the otherb top 3yr olds.....

    right now you put him with the mid pack closers and hope the distance suits him more, and hope the closers behind him aren't better, which they may/may not be. even if he his he'll have to pass some great horses in front of him in the derby not named enticed. all i know is that i've played many wood horses dating back 10 years better than this horse and always got one of wonka's bad eggs in the derby. him winning the wood will not influence me in the slightest.





    my boy jack

    every year there's a big one run closer with nice races., and every year people play them. would i blame people for playing this one? no, he looks like one of the better closers. but that doesn't mean he'll reach. the horse is always coming though. took care of business in the lex to get in, wasn't overly impressive but he won. if it's an off track and you get a fast pace you can start to drool quite a bit, until then you're only allowed to dream and a likely 5th place finish at best


    free drop billy

    another one of your closers, and highly accomplised as a two yr old. i thought he might run a little bit better in the BG but needed a spooked sporting chance to get put up to third. he might be in just a little better psotion than some of the other closers in the derby, depending on post. still, i see a sub bar gotham against enticed who i don't like at all. which followed a nice 2nd place finish vs audible. nevertheless, he still might be coming late 4th off the bench for romans. you should get a huge price on him.



    hofburg

    i'm sure he''ll be on the list of many that wants a longshot, or wants to include a longshot. three raced limited data horse makes people like him even more becuse you don't know how good he is. throw in the fact that all you read is "he wouldn't be in here if he was good" mott angle. the promise and the unknown is better the known when it comes to capping, but it's easy to overboard a little. the fact is he had a ideal set up in ten fla derby to get 2nd. outside of audible, the 3 other figures were up close in fast fractions and catlick boy bled. it was still a nice race, and hofburg still had to run it, and while he still may get better he's just another closer that will be trying to pick up the pieces. i can't honestly say he's better than the other closers right now. but some bettors will be playing him like he is because all the angles allow for hope and to dream a little bigger.


    lone sailor

    say no to the closers and your wallet will love you. only really bad race was when he had the rail in the lecomte and was up close early and his first maiden start. his last race, the LA derby was his best, so he has that going for him. he shot the gap on the rail, and he breifly stalled there as the 99-1 shot starting backing up, but i don;t think it really effected him. in all actuality the horse didn't come of the rail until the stretch in honest fractions. and when he hit the stretch he was wavering left and right late and could not put away noble indy even after he cleared him. so there you have it. he had close to a perfect trip as you're ever going to get for a closer. and from the looks of it, i don't think the horses wants the distance. he does has some competitive race at two vs some of these. but most of those are fringe players.

    promises fulfilled

    the one thing they didn't need to do they did in the fla derby. did they have a choice? from the looks of it prolly not. now PF is in the derby off of this awful hard driven race. he was getting better up until the FLA derby as well. he caught good magic at the right time and had a walk in in the park in the FOY. it was still a nice race regardles sof the early fractions, but suspect because of it as well. it's always nice and be in position, but right now you have a speed horse that just isn't good enough or fast enough to beat these. i don't even know if he can mess up the good horses if he does leave and push again.

    bravazzo

    nice accomplished horse that ran a turd of a race in the LA derby. beat noble indy two back at 20-1. i really don't know wat else to say about him. doesn;t look like he wants to be inside at all, and i'm sure he's not as bad as his last race, but can you even chance it, or even expect a big run. the reality of the situation is that it looks like he bounced after barely upsetting win in soft fractions over 40-1 snapper sinclair in the risen star. boom, roasted.


    firenze fire

    don't want to invest too much time talking about this one. has some good races at two beating several in here. good magic, solomini, fdp, enticed. but the age change hasn't been kind to him. gotham and wood were servely lacking, not to mention not that strong of horses were in both. couple that with a horse that just doesn;t seem to go long and you have a big longshot.


    gronkowski

    a turf miler? i thought the days of this type of goof off was behind us? oh no,..let's take the european champ..or european horse wtfthat means?. other drawbacks is that he might be too cheap and slow. good news or bad news however you see it you'll get to see rob gronkowski and maybe tom brady hamming it up in the walk over. maybe they can instruct the horse for a better offensive game plan
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    noble indy

    another light raced horse that has improved with every start. i will be a little less judgemental of him finishing 3rd to bravazzo and lone sailor in third lifetime start in a G2 because of the nice win with blinks in the la derby. horse also beat mississippi in an allow in 142 in his 2nd start. in any other derby this horse would be getting more buzz. horse should be in shouting distance as well. i won't talk you out of using him underneath as a longshot play with some teeth. don't know where to place him here, but his future does look bright


    quip

    quip is nice horse. third race off the bench and maybe there's more improvement coming? doesn't look likely going further imo. i hated the way he caved to magnum moon but what i didnt like more is that solomini and combatant almost closed in on him even though they didn't go fast early. good news is that he'll be forwardly placed and he ddn't have to run hard in the ark, as he already had a spot in the derby locked up. bad news is that he looks like he;ll be outfiinishsed by several. still anytime you have some tactical speed and/or in position you can hang around..at least for a while.




    enticed

    as i joked in the vino post. sure enticed his nice horse but this is the KD. not the wood or gotham. rossi went right by him and i can;t say i'm comepletely surprised he did. enticed just looks like he's a notch below. he should be up in the front of the middle of the pack so he might be in position. but in position for what? he looks like he'll be outfinished by many regardless



    vino rossi

    extra, extra, read all about it. haskins has this horse at #1 for two straight weeks.. it's amazing what a big throrograph # and sharp workouts can cloud a seasoned pro. imagine if the horse had a flowing mane and silkience conditioned coat...oh boy.....

    let's face facts here. i pointed out before that this horse could have taken the tapwrit career path. but he didn't even do that. i thought this horse was poised for a big effort in the TB derby. i admit, i loved the horse, i thought he would win there. but he raced pretty poorly for the most part. this after being acclimated to the TB track in the previous race and a decent/nice 3rd place finish to flameaway 142 change.

    i believe the truth is we all overvalued the horse. and after the dud in the TB derby, pletcher finds the easiest prep on the board in the wood. holy crap....that field was awful. you really couldn't pick any horse other than vino and enticed. even roman's 147 maiden winner took money not to mention restoring hope. people were also looking at cheap allowance horse off 3 months...lol

    sure enough, he rumbles by enticed to win. but he didn;t even have to get better to do this. he just had to be better than the horses in the race, which he was. christ....... enticed isn't even that fast. i would go so far and say he's slower than chit vs the otherb top 3yr olds.....

    right now you put him with the mid pack closers and hope the distance suits him more, and hope the closers behind him aren't better, which they may/may not be. even if he his he'll have to pass some great horses in front of him in the derby not named enticed. all i know is that i've played many wood horses dating back 10 years better than this horse and always got one of wonka's bad eggs in the derby. him winning the wood will not influence me in the slightest.





    my boy jack

    every year there's a big one run closer with nice races., and every year people play them. would i blame people for playing this one? no, he looks like one of the better closers. but that doesn't mean he'll reach. the horse is always coming though. took care of business in the lex to get in, wasn't overly impressive but he won. if it's an off track and you get a fast pace you can start to drool quite a bit, until then you're only allowed to dream and a likely 5th place finish at best


    free drop billy

    another one of your closers, and highly accomplised as a two yr old. i thought he might run a little bit better in the BG but needed a spooked sporting chance to get put up to third. he might be in just a little better psotion than some of the other closers in the derby, depending on post. still, i see a sub bar gotham against enticed who i don't like at all. which followed a nice 2nd place finish vs audible. nevertheless, he still might be coming late 4th off the bench for romans. you should get a huge price on him.



    hofburg

    i'm sure he''ll be on the list of many that wants a longshot, or wants to include a longshot. three raced limited data horse makes people like him even more becuse you don't know how good he is. throw in the fact that all you read is "he wouldn't be in here if he was good" mott angle. the promise and the unknown is better the known when it comes to capping, but it's easy to overboard a little. the fact is he had a ideal set up in ten fla derby to get 2nd. outside of audible, the 3 other figures were up close in fast fractions and catlick boy bled. it was still a nice race, and hofburg still had to run it, and while he still may get better he's just another closer that will be trying to pick up the pieces. i can't honestly say he's better than the other closers right now. but some bettors will be playing him like he is because all the angles allow for hope and to dream a little bigger.


    lone sailor

    say no to the closers and your wallet will love you. only really bad race was when he had the rail in the lecomte and was up close early and his first maiden start. his last race, the LA derby was his best, so he has that going for him. he shot the gap on the rail, and he breifly stalled there as the 99-1 shot starting backing up, but i don;t think it really effected him. in all actuality the horse didn't come of the rail until the stretch in honest fractions. and when he hit the stretch he was wavering left and right late and could not put away noble indy even after he cleared him. so there you have it. he had close to a perfect trip as you're ever going to get for a closer. and from the looks of it, i don't think the horses wants the distance. he does has some competitive race at two vs some of these. but most of those are fringe players.

    promises fulfilled

    the one thing they didn't need to do they did in the fla derby. did they have a choice? from the looks of it prolly not. now PF is in the derby off of this awful hard driven race. he was getting better up until the FLA derby as well. he caught good magic at the right time and had a walk in in the park in the FOY. it was still a nice race regardles sof the early fractions, but suspect because of it as well. it's always nice and be in position, but right now you have a speed horse that just isn't good enough or fast enough to beat these. i don't even know if he can mess up the good horses if he does leave and push again.

    bravazzo

    nice accomplished horse that ran a turd of a race in the LA derby. beat noble indy two back at 20-1. i really don't know wat else to say about him. doesn;t look like he wants to be inside at all, and i'm sure he's not as bad as his last race, but can you even chance it, or even expect a big run. the reality of the situation is that it looks like he bounced after barely upsetting win in soft fractions over 40-1 snapper sinclair in the risen star. boom, roasted.


    firenze fire

    don't want to invest too much time talking about this one. has some good races at two beating several in here. good magic, solomini, fdp, enticed. but the age change hasn't been kind to him. gotham and wood were servely lacking, not to mention not that strong of horses were in both. couple that with a horse that just doesn;t seem to go long and you have a big longshot.


    gronkowski

    a turf miler? i thought the days of this type of goof off was behind us? oh no,..let's take the european champ..or european horse wtfthat means?. other drawbacks is that he might be too cheap and slow. good news or bad news however you see it you'll get to see rob gronkowski and maybe tom brady hamming it up in the walk over. maybe they can instruct the horse for a better offensive game plan
    When are your Trifecta picks coming in, 5 horse box.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by hutmaster View Post
    I was at a food show last week held by one of my suppliers at Santa Anita. Got to meet Bob Baffert, the trainer of Justify. Talked to him and he thinks he is a legit Triple Crown Threat. He seemed pretty candid about it so I donít think he was just saying it because it was his horse. He was a pretty nice guy. It was a non-racing day so I assume he was their working some horses out or something. Said he saw all the people and decided to check out the food show. The buddy I was with once dated a niece of Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg and brought him up. Bob said that when he first got into the business Jack gave him 2 pieces of advice to be successful .....never get divorced, never buy your own farm. He said Van Berg died shortly after doing both
    Awesome story. Did you take in clockers corner in the morning. Itís a great atmosphere.

  15. #15
    Platinum mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draymond View Post
    When are your Trifecta picks coming in, 5 horse box.
    well.. i need to finish up my analysis on the 7/8 horses that i didn't get to. that's the meat and potatos of the derby

    1 or 2 in the group i just wrote about i might put them in the exotics underneath. but it won;t be for much.
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  16. #16
    So I took some time today and watched all the preps . I still hate this race and will go on record that its like torching money for most . I have had some recent luck lately playing pick 4's at certain low life tracks . Remington QH's meet is a great place to hit some big Pick 4's . My last good hit was about 3 weeks ago I had an $8.00 ticket pay $1280.00 on a 50 cent base wager . Not even taxable . Have to love that .

    Anyways enough brag here is my six horses I think can win the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

    I am not ranking them here as I will narrow this six pack down by Race Day

    1. McKinzie

    2. Flame Away

    3. Mendilson

    4. Vino Rosso

    5. Bolt Doro

    6. Audible


    At this time The 2 I like the best are Flame and Bolt .


    Good Luck
    Gookie

  17. #17
    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    So I took some time today and watched all the preps . I still hate this race and will go on record that its like torching money for most . I have had some recent luck lately playing pick 4's at certain low life tracks . Remington QH's meet is a great place to hit some big Pick 4's . My last good hit was about 3 weeks ago I had an $8.00 ticket pay $1280.00 on a 50 cent base wager . Not even taxable . Have to love that .

    Anyways enough brag here is my six horses I think can win the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

    I am not ranking them here as I will narrow this six pack down by Race Day

    1. McKinzie

    2. Flame Away

    3. Mendilson

    4. Vino Rosso

    5. Bolt Doro

    6. Audible


    At this time The 2 I like the best are Flame and Bolt .


    Good Luck
    Gookie
    Good news, you're down to five.

    McKinzie isn't running.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    So I took some time today and watched all the preps . I still hate this race and will go on record that its like torching money for most . I have had some recent luck lately playing pick 4's at certain low life tracks . Remington QH's meet is a great place to hit some big Pick 4's . My last good hit was about 3 weeks ago I had an $8.00 ticket pay $1280.00 on a 50 cent base wager . Not even taxable . Have to love that .

    Anyways enough brag here is my six horses I think can win the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

    I am not ranking them here as I will narrow this six pack down by Race Day

    1. McKinzie

    2. Flame Away

    3. Mendilson

    4. Vino Rosso

    5. Bolt Doro

    6. Audible


    At this time The 2 I like the best are Flame and Bolt .


    Good Luck
    Gookie
    Good news, you're down to five.

    McKinzie isn't running.

    Where did you read this? Only news I can find is Gronkowski is out along with Quip. Not finding any news about McKinzie.

    Thanks

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Draymond View Post
    When are your Trifecta picks coming in, 5 horse box.
    well.. i need to finish up my analysis on the 7/8 horses that i didn't get to. that's the meat and potatos of the derby

    1 or 2 in the group i just wrote about i might put them in the exotics underneath. but it won;t be for much.
    Thinking the 5 hose box for a trifecta is the way to go. It's only $60 and you can put in a shot or two and pray they can place or show.

  20. #20
    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post

    Good news, you're down to five.

    McKinzie isn't running.

    Where did you read this? Only news I can find is Gronkowski is out along with Quip. Not finding any news about McKinzie.

    Thanks
    McKinzie was more toward the beginning of this month.

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...8_unlikely_123

    http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...-for-mckinzie/

    http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-c...207898359.html

    He's also not on the leaderboard for the Derby:

    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

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