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Thread: What are the odds?....

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    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    What are the odds?....

    That the Phillies win the NL and win the WS?

    I read a story about some drunk guy who put tons of money on St Louis last year when they were virtually out of it, and they won both bets obviously. Can anyone in Vegas find out what those odds would be for the Phillies this year? TIA

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    Gold Steve-O's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    That the Phillies win the NL and win the WS?

    I read a story about some drunk guy who put tons of money on St Louis last year when they were virtually out of it, and they won both bets obviously. Can anyone in Vegas find out what those odds would be for the Phillies this year? TIA
    The guy last year did it at the tail end of the year when it was virtually impossible for them to even make the playoffs. Doubt you'd get anything near that halfway through the season
    I write things about poker at my Poker Blog and elsewhere on the Internets

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    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    That the Phillies win the NL and win the WS?

    I read a story about some drunk guy who put tons of money on St Louis last year when they were virtually out of it, and they won both bets obviously. Can anyone in Vegas find out what those odds would be for the Phillies this year? TIA
    The guy last year did it at the tail end of the year when it was virtually impossible for them to even make the playoffs. Doubt you'd get anything near that halfway through the season

    No, I know his odds were astronomical. I was just wondering what mine would be, because I feel like this will be the furthest they get odds wise during the season. I am hoping the comeback starts fresh NOW

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    From Bovada-

    New York Yankees
    9/2

    Texas Rangers
    21/4

    Los Angeles Angels
    11/1

    San Francisco Giants
    11/1

    Washington Nationals
    11/1

    Cincinnati Reds
    14/1

    Detroit Tigers
    14/1

    Atlanta Braves
    16/1

    Chicago White Sox
    16/1

    Los Angeles Dodgers
    16/1

    Tampa Bay Rays
    18/1

    St. Louis Cardinals
    20/1

    Boston Red Sox
    22/1

    Philadelphia Phillies
    30/1


    Pittsburgh Pirates
    30/1

    Arizona Diamondbacks
    35/1

    Miami Marlins
    35/1

    Toronto Blue Jays
    35/1

    New York Mets
    40/1

    Cleveland Indians
    45/1

    Baltimore Orioles
    50/1

    Milwaukee Brewers
    60/1

    Oakland Athletics
    100/1

    Kansas City Royals
    150/1

    Colorado Rockies
    300/1

    Minnesota Twins
    300/1

    Chicago Cubs
    500/1

    Houston Astros
    500/1

    San Diego Padres
    500/1

    Seattle Mariners
    500/1

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    Gold Steve-O's Avatar
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    My experience in Vegas has always been that for prop bets of this nature you need to shop around, as some sportsbooks will have them at 20-1 and another may have it at 60-1
    I write things about poker at my Poker Blog and elsewhere on the Internets

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    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O View Post
    My experience in Vegas has always been that for prop bets of this nature you need to shop around, as some sportsbooks will have them at 20-1 and another may have it at 60-1


    Great call. I got moist at 30-1, but I think I can find better.


    And thank you Barry

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

    Wow. That one has the Phillies at 75-1, and the scrub teams at 1000.

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    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    I may lay some wood on the White Sox at 16/1. They are a solid team with good pitching. I'm from Chicago and have started to the Sox more closely as the Cubs have been unwatchable for years now.

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    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    30-1 isn't enough imo.

    <1 month ago i could've had and wanted the nationals to win the NL @ 15/16-1 and the ws @ 30-1

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    Platinum herbertstemple's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    I may lay some wood on the White Sox at 16/1. They are a solid team with good pitching. I'm from Chicago and have started to the Sox more closely as the Cubs have been unwatchable for a century now.
    Couldn't resist.

    Reds best team in NL.
    Tradition is a set of solutions for which we have forgotten the problems.

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    How Could You? WillieMcFML's Avatar
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    the cards at 20-1 are a good bet

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirtyB View Post
    http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

    Wow. That one has the Phillies at 75-1, and the scrub teams at 1000.
    Phillies are a scrub team , they should be 500-1

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    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DirtyB View Post
    http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

    Wow. That one has the Phillies at 75-1, and the scrub teams at 1000.
    Phillies are a scrub team , they should be 500-1

    careful

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    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Phillies are a scrub team , they should be 500-1

    careful
    lol

    they are 13 games under, they should be at least 200 to 1 to come back, make playoffs and win the thing, they have the pitching coming back so they could get hot, but their bats may struggle

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    Bronze DABADASS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post


    careful
    lol

    they are 13 games under, they should be at least 200 to 1 to come back, make playoffs and win the thing, they have the pitching coming back so they could get hot, but their bats may struggle
    Club sports stats* has them at .3% to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, it will most likely be as a wildcard. That means they'll have to win four rounds. Assuming they are 55% to win each round, (reasonable assumption given they'd have to be hot as hell to make the playoffs) they'd have a 9.15% shot at winning the world series given they make the playoffs.

    Multiply .0915 (1/10.93) * .003 (1/333.33) and you get 1/3643 to win the World Series and 1/2008 to win the NL.

    Good luck


    *http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/N.../Phillies.html

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    Gold tommyt's Avatar
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    just take the money you were going to bet and buy yourself something nice.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    they are 13 games under, they should be at least 200 to 1 to come back, make playoffs and win the thing, they have the pitching coming back so they could get hot, but their bats may struggle
    When it comes to these kind of prop bets, the books do NOT set accurate lines. Instead they set a line where they think they will maximize their EV. They can way over-inflate the Phillies odds because there are plenty of Phillie homers and other delusional sports bettors trying to make a big score who will take this tremendously negative EV line.

    I assume Barry's Bovada lines are to win it all. If you add up all the percentages it comes out to 140%. So on these futures bets they are charging 40% juice, compared to only 5-10% juice for a game bet, so you can see what a scam these are.
    Last edited by ErickAA; 07-12-2012 at 01:04 PM.

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    Gold 408Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    That the Phillies win the NL and win the WS?

    I read a story about some drunk guy who put tons of money on St Louis last year when they were virtually out of it, and they won both bets obviously. Can anyone in Vegas find out what those odds would be for the Phillies this year? TIA
    Bro have some faith in your team and your gut.

    Remember a couple years back I literally called the Giants winning the World Series, at the start of the season no less. I felt it then, and literally nothing since.

    If you get the feeling, just go with it. Drop some coin that isn't going to break you and have some fun. Watching sports when you have actual money to be won or lost is on another level of awesome.
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine
    i was pretty butt-hurt when mike said he didnt want to fuck with my home game because i was trannie-bombing threads, but ive definitely come to appreciate mike as a poster and a person and feel genuinely that the last thing on earth he deserves is a dime-store bipolar fruitcake like marty threatening him.

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    I just fired off $200 on the Arizona Diamondbacks at 40-1.

    Why? because it seemed like the worst bet on the board. I remember that Cardinal bet at 500-1 thinking it looked like it should be 1 million to 1.

    The D-backs are fucking terrible and cannot possibly be 2.5%, especially with all the teams in playoff contention. These prop bets are about like the bet Drexel was trying to book for Cancerfaced Slim-Wolf. Casino has a massive edge.

    Not to spoil the thread but I feel like that freak won't look at this thread and i don't want to get into it with him, but Jesus Christ have tou ever seen someone that needs to be put down more than that guy? His alleged "rolling" accusation involves Drexel Rolling him from friendship and hugs.

    Can you imagine Drexel shopping for this guy out of sympathy only to be treated like a scammer because he couldn't continually ratchet up the favors and was too nice to come out and say "no".

    Drexel literally has more integrity than anyone I know by not booking that bet. I just can't imagine not taking the free 5k on that bet and just rationalizing a way to pay it back if he would indeed win. I'd be like: I'll pay you $1000 a month until my Aunt dies. Sorry pal. Dude would have to finish 1st to get paid, not final table. In a huge MTT. Talk about a virtual freeroll with noway for him to collect if he did win. Hell I could even bet around 20k on him to win if he final tabled to cover the bet with a small loss.


    Seriously fucked up dude. Anyway, end thread hijack. What up Weiss? Things are going terrible for me lately. I am running real real bad in my personal life.
    Quote Originally Posted by 408Mike View Post
    My mom has a few special requests actually, Vwls do you do any freelance work? For fun or at least pretty cheap? Mostly cutesy stuff with her horses and baby foal who is still a baby but a freaking huge one let me tell you.

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    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommyt View Post
    just take the money you were going to bet and buy yourself something nice.

    Or I can bet on it and take the money and buy myself 75 something nice's

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