***OFFICIAL 2017 MLB HOT STOVE THREAD***

[gut]

JD happened like I thought it would after the Hosmer deal. it seems the ultimate compromise now between Boras and the owners is shorter (but frontloaded) deals, with higher AAV's but also player options. JD got two, so he either signed for 2/50, 3/72, or 5/110...depending on what he wants to do.

I wouldnt be shocked to see him opt out the first time, after 2 years, if he performs well.

I'm confused...OK so a guy get a frontloaded "mega-money" deal for 2 years and gets to go FA again...does he think that all of a sudden his guys in their 30s are gonna get lavished with 8 year deals? that all of a sudden their production is gonna keep increasing?

The way I would see it, next offseason we're probably gonna see record contracts being signed, Harper being the most important one for JD. As of now, Harper and JD are basically equal hitters, 2 of the best in the game.....of course Harper is younger and MUCH better in all other aspects of the game. But, assume Harper signs for something like....a $35 mil AAV maybe. Then the 2019 season plays out. If JD remains the same hitter....he's sitting at 32 years old (not super old for a slow corner of/dh type) and could try to use Harper as a comparable to ask for maybe 5/150....which even if that gets knocked down to 5/120, its better than the remaining 3/60 he has with the option years.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

I'm confused...OK so a guy get a frontloaded "mega-money" deal for 2 years and gets to go FA again...does he think that all of a sudden his guys in their 30s are gonna get lavished with 8 year deals? that all of a sudden their production is gonna keep increasing?

The way I would see it, next offseason we're probably gonna see record contracts being signed, Harper being the most important one for JD. As of now, Harper and JD are basically equal hitters, 2 of the best in the game.....of course Harper is younger and MUCH better in all other aspects of the game. But, assume Harper signs for something like....a $35 mil AAV maybe. Then the 2019 season plays out. If JD remains the same hitter....he's sitting at 32 years old (not super old for a slow corner of/dh type) and could try to use Harper as a comparable to ask for maybe 5/150....which even if that gets knocked down to 5/120, its better than the remaining 3/60 he has with the option years.

I see where you are going, but man that's gonna be a tough ask given the age disparity and inevitable decline of JD...you may be right, but don't know if they get to 24/year for JD if harper gets 30...

[gut]

Interesting week for the Rays. I've always loved how much better they are at fielding a decent team with a low payroll, without ever doing a full on rebuild. Pirates and Marlins and etc should take notes. The week started off weird with them somehow only getting the twins 4th best SS prospect for Odorizzi, although as a Twins fan....I'm happy. Apparently either other teams weren't too interested in him, or the Rays really like the kid they got back. Then they oddly DFA Dickerson, who made the all-star game last year after his great first half. He's still sitting in DFA limbo, but almost certainly will be traded....although for not much in return with the DFA hamstringing their leverage.

Then the 3way trade with the DBacks and Yankees, which probably works well for all teams but a nice (if still incomplete) haul for the rays. Souza should be money in AZ (fantasy sleeper now) assuming he gets a full-time role in that now crowded outfield. Could hit 40 HR's there if playing regularly. But the Rays got back a pretty decent MLB-ready starter prospect in Banda, and the 2B prospect they got from the Yanks has raked so far in 1 1/2 pro seasons at A/AA ball.....oh and they are getting 2 other PTBNL's from AZ. Not a bad haul.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Interesting week for the Rays. I've always loved how much better they are at fielding a decent team with a low payroll, without ever doing a full on rebuild. Pirates and Marlins and etc should take notes. The week started off weird with them somehow only getting the twins 4th best SS prospect for Odorizzi, although as a Twins fan....I'm happy. Apparently either other teams weren't too interested in him, or the Rays really like the kid they got back. Then they oddly DFA Dickerson, who made the all-star game last year after his great first half. He's still sitting in DFA limbo, but almost certainly will be traded....although for not much in return with the DFA hamstringing their leverage.

Then the 3way trade with the DBacks and Yankees, which probably works well for all teams but a nice (if still incomplete) haul for the rays. Souza should be money in AZ (fantasy sleeper now) assuming he gets a full-time role in that now crowded outfield. Could hit 40 HR's there if playing regularly. But the Rays got back a pretty decent MLB-ready starter prospect in Banda, and the 2B prospect they got from the Yanks has raked so far in 1 1/2 pro seasons at A/AA ball.....oh and they are getting 2 other PTBNL's from AZ. Not a bad haul.

try are amazing and nobody in florida gives a rats fucking ass which is a shame...

[Sanlmar]

Mets v Astros.

Steven “The Elbow” Matz

16 pitches 5 runs 1K

This guy is done

FML I missed this game.

[Sanlmar]

Last year was the Year of the Home Run

All or nothing... and it worked. Houston Astros & Yankees

This is a story about analytics and the big money retards who use them like, well, retards. I am talking about the Red Sox & Dodgers but today we will focus on the Sawks.

Red Sox planning a more aggressive approach at plate
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bos...I58oM/amp.html

In 2017 the Red Sox were 27th in the league in HR’s. They play in a little AL bandbox called Fenway

The seven best counts in which to hit, by OPS, are (in order): 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, and 0-1. The Sox ranked 20th or worse in the majors in each of those — a bottom-third offense in the counts that offered the greatest opportunities.

While the team ranked among the six most productive offenses in the three worst counts (0-2, 1-2, 2-2), the upside of being elite in those counts is typically limited. In those two-strike situations, a single qualifies as a great outcome, while home runs remain rare.

The Red Sox were trained to wait. Don’t be aggressive in hitters counts. To wait. However, their talent was so good they excelled when behind in the count. Of course, down 1-2 you aren’t looking HR - you’re just looking for a hit to survive.

This is a fucking amazing quote from the Sawk’s Shortstop

“Sometimes it’s frustrating,” Bogaerts said in the middle of last season. “I go up there wanting to swing at the first pitch and I can’t.

The Red Sox employ Bill James. I recently read the Dodgers have 20 analytics wonks on the payroll. These big money teams take all these resources and you get these results.

This is little league shit

In fairness the Sawks have a couple of rings recently but they go from first to worst to first cause they are retahded. Dodgers are just incompetent. In my mind I lump them together as suffering from the same types of big money ineptitude

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

wonder how much the analytics helps/hampers...

I mean it's good stuff, but at the end of the day if you're hampering the performance of your high performance sports car then you might want to check how you do business...

20 analytics guys on a payroll is fucking insane...I mean there are fucking hedgies investing millions upon millions with less analytics guys...

the evil empire is full of analytics wonks (guilty as charged as being one of them) and id be willing to fucking bet that they're the worst run casino company in the world...

[Sanlmar]

Analytics is just a tool. Some teams just hit their own thumb with them.

For the most part it’s good info. It just takes a special brand of stupid to fuck it up

I was reading about the Dodgers pitching plans for 2018 driven by analytics. Short starts to avoid hitters seeing the starter for a third time. Wacky pitching by committee stuff.

On the surface facing a guy for the third time becomes more of a challenge. We always knew that. You don’t show your curve until then or some such strategy.

Dodgers gonna corkscrew themselves into the ground with this data driven morsel. Yank Kershaw after 4. The starting pitchers are gonna be pissed.

And yet the most basic baseball is ignored like tipping pitches.

I can’t wait

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

Some nasty af pichtes

[Sanlmar]

Some nasty af pichtes

Has he hit?

Hope he kills it both ways.

Just saw the Harper / JD comparison. I am feeling some morning sickness now.

JD will never set foot in the Sawks outfield. I can’t project how many games he will actually play per year either. He will be trading time with Hanley Ramirez. The numbers will be something short of world beating.

There is no comparison. Harper gets closer to $40/m. There is a collective yawn in Boston over JD. Harper will electrify a city like NY. Worth every dime.

JD and Harper are not comparables

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

Some nasty af pichtes

Has he hit?

Hope he kills it both ways.

Just saw the Harper / JD comparison. I am feeling some morning sickness now.

JD will never set foot in the Sawks outfield. I can’t project how many games he will actually play per year either. He will be trading time with Hanley Ramirez. The numbers will be something short of world beating.

There is no comparison. Harper gets closer to $40/m. There is a collective yawn in Boston over JD. Harper will electrify a city like NY. Worth every dime.

JD and Harper are not comparables

I don't think he has hit yet.

[mulva]

Some nasty af pichtes

wow. i didn;t know what to think of him because i aven;t seen him pitch. his breaking stuff looked filthy and he can crank it up and get movement as well.

also,...from lookin at hm it's very rare that you see a big, strong, young pitcher like this. even moreso that he;s asian

[mulva]

Sanlmar: Kluber rep. Mulva immortal

this performance was very kluberesque. it was against a B squad though.

dude looks like bruce chen a little as well.

[gut]

you think any of those guys go back to KC?

Honestly I wouldnt be surprised if 1 of them does. Probably a 1 year deal to then re-enter the market next year when money will be thrown around.

Well, I was technically right, although not the same circumstances that I thought. Wow, Boras really fucked Moustakas over. Turns down the 17.9m QO, supposedly turned down 3/45 from LAA early on (which, if we've learned anything, treat an Angels offer like the highest possible offer since they love to burn money)....crickets....re-signs for 1/6.5 with KC...i believe with incentives and the mutual buyout it can hit like 10m....but damn. WHOOPS

I figured he would wind up with either Atlanta or the White Sox, 2 teams that, while rebuilding, have large budgets. Figured either or both of them would offer him like 2/20 or something to be a "bridge" 3B. Apparently neither were too interested.

[Sanlmar]

You have to give the Royals credit for putting an somewhat entertaining team out there while they rebuild

[Dan Druff]

Matt Kemp is swinging the bat well this spring, and sources say that he's gone from "almost certain release" two months ago to the favorite for the starting LF job.

Believe it or not, I actually predicted this (not sure if I posted in this thread, or just on Facebook), because I knew the guy could still hit, and I knew the Dodgers kind of have a hole at that position.

Yes, he sucks in the OF, but they're probably going with him over Toles and Pederson. Still possible that Toles gets the job, but he really needs to convince them he can hit consistently since coming back from that awful injury.

[mulva]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Honestly I wouldnt be surprised if 1 of them does. Probably a 1 year deal to then re-enter the market next year when money will be thrown around.

Well, I was technically right, although not the same circumstances that I thought. Wow, Boras really fucked Moustakas over. Turns down the 17.9m QO, supposedly turned down 3/45 from LAA early on (which, if we've learned anything, treat an Angels offer like the highest possible offer since they love to burn money)....crickets....re-signs for 1/6.5 with KC...i believe with incentives and the mutual buyout it can hit like 10m....but damn. WHOOPS

I figured he would wind up with either Atlanta or the White Sox, 2 teams that, while rebuilding, have large budgets. Figured either or both of them would offer him like 2/20 or something to be a "bridge" 3B. Apparently neither were too interested.

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olne...an-scott-boras

Fat fucking piece of shit...Nice job Scottie boy...way to cost your clients almost $50M...

[Sanlmar]

Boras is like a hedge fund.

Keep taking a cut of investors/players money in a rising market. If the market tanks the only money lost is that of the investors/players.

Boras is the only player in baseball who can’t lose.

Seriously though, he risks losing new or existing clients but baseball players are THE dumbest athletes in professional sports so he’ll prolly weather all this.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

jake doesn't get penalized for sitting out free agency and gets 3/75...

seems like an overpay for this late in the game...if he'd signed this at the beginning of the offseason I woulda still thought it was an overpay, but would make sense that philly had to juice the contract a little to get him to sign there...

even though it's an overpay, still think it's not a bad move for the phils...now they have a decent 1/2/3 with nola-jake-velaquez...plus think they got the years spot on...think jake is like 33 and he's definitely in a decline...they should get decent enough value for 2 years if he stays healthy and might end up eating a little shit on that third year, but that's not the worst thing in the world...