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Thread: Why you should be scared of the Dodgers in 2019 and beyond

  1. #1
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Why you should be scared of the Dodgers in 2019 and beyond

    Now that baseball is over, and the Dodgers fell one game short of winning the World Series, it's time for some CONTRACTS talk.

    The Dodgers have been maligned by haters in recent years who have claimed the team has had success because of its monster payroll. More keen observers point out that much of that payroll was dead money -- either paid to players who are gone, or ones who were contributing little. Much of the team's success was thanks to the lower and middle salaried players.

    Dodgers already have some money freed up this year, but offseason FOLLOWING 2018 will be the big one.

    For the 2018 season, the following large/medium salaries will be paid, barring any trades:

    Clayton Kershaw $35.6 million
    Adrian Gonzalez $22.36 million
    Kenley Jansen $10.8 million
    Justin Turner $12 million
    Brandon McCarthy $11.5 million
    Scott Kazmir $17.67 million
    Rich Hill $16.67 million
    Yaseil Puig $9.21 million
    Logan Forsythe $8.5 million
    Hyun-Jin Ryu $7.83 million
    Erisbel Arruebarrena $6.5 million

    In arbitration, Grandal is expected to get about $7.7 million, and Alex Wood is expected to receive around $6.4 million.

    As you can see, some of that money is well spent (Kershaw, Tuner, Jansen, Puig), some of it is a waste (McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu, Gonzalez, Arruebarrena), and some of it is in the middle (Hill, Forsythe).

    But what about a year later? Coming into 2019, of that group above, ONLY Turner, Puig, Hill, and Jansen are locked up! (And it will be Hill's final year.)

    The rest will be free agents, except Kershaw who is signed through 2020 but can opt out after 2018.

    This will free up a lot of money.

    What about cheap players who will become free agents and need to be paid a lot to be kept?

    Not many. There will be two free agents the Dodgers would want to consider keeping after 2018: Grandal and Forsythe. And if Barnes continues hitting the ball, the Dodgers might decide to part with Grandal -- if not before that.

    So the Dodgers are going to shed a lot of obligations while not having to pay existing players much more.

    There will, of course, be the matter of Kershaw. No doubt he will opt out. No doubt he will want a "reset" of his contract, to where he's guaranteed far past 2020. And it's very likely he will get it.

    Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner will also see raises of about $7-8 million in 2019 over 2018.

    Still, there will be a lot of money to be spent.

    And most of the dead money will be gone. There will be a final Matt Kemp payment of $3.5 million in 2018, a few years left of the $5-7 million payments to Yasiel Sierra, and that's pretty much it.

    The Dodgers only have $107.5 million committed for 2019 right now, and that includes Kershaw's big contract. The scary part? Despite all that extra money to spend, almost the entire Dodgers playoff roster can be kept in 2019 for not much more than that $107.5 million.

    Hopefully the Dodgers will use the found money wisely, and not waste it this time on failpitchers like Kazmir and McCarthy.

    Source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...ontracts.shtml

  2. #2
    The Dodgers have been maligned by haters in recent years who have claimed the team has had success because of its monster payroll
    That is not the narrative. The Dodgers are maligned by haters because of their failure despite the monster payroll.

    Nobody cheers stupid money. Big, rich and dumb is not loveable. Winning is lovable

    In fairness, cause that’s what I’m about, I hate the Red Sox in recent years for precisely the same reason.

    Boston sports always has more success than LA so I don’t suffer to the degree you do.

    America loves the Astros. America likes winners and underdogs.

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    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-21-2017 at 01:28 AM.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    How can winning 104 games and getting to Game 7 of the World Series be defined as failure?

    How can 5 consecutive NL West titles and 3 NLCS appearances in that time be defined as failure?

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  5. #5
    Perennial chokers.

  6. #6
    Diamond big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    How can winning 104 games and getting to Game 7 of the World Series be defined as failure?

    How can 5 consecutive NL West titles and 3 NLCS appearances in that time be defined as failure?
    They remind me of the Buffalo Bills

     
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    How can winning 104 games and getting to Game 7 of the World Series be defined as failure?

    How can 5 consecutive NL West titles and 3 NLCS appearances in that time be defined as failure?
    You can ask a Buffalo Bills or Atlanta Braves fan to explain this to you.

    Even you will weary of division pennants.

  8. #8
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vegas1369 View Post
    Perennial chokers.
    I think they would have won Game 7 if they started Wood (and had Kershaw on call) instead of starting Fuck Yu and leaving him in until the game was 5-0.

    Or if they didn't win, I think it would have been competitive.

    Their annihilation of the Dbacks and Cubs this year in the playoffs showed they weren't the same playoff team that they had been before.

    Also, Houston was a legit very good team, and the Dodgers bullpen advantage was kinda negated in that lol ballpark in Houston where every routine fly to LF is a home run.

    I really wish baseball had some reasonable minimum dimension standards for ballparks.

     
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    One minute apart but same quick truth, Bigdick

     
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  10. #10
    I really wish baseball had some reasonable minimum dimension standards for ballparks.
    Toward the end of the Series I recall Kershaw only 4 swing and miss pitches in his outing. Same for the rest. I can see your perspective here.

    You will eventually come to grips with the fact division wins gain you a tourney ticket. Failure to win a World Series “at all costs” (read tough trades - saving chips is the wrong choice and heartless) is a critical difference. It is so hard to win it all and fortunes quickly change as Cleveland and Cubs will teach you.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-21-2017 at 01:45 AM.

  11. #11
    Diamond big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by vegas1369 View Post
    Perennial chokers.
    I think they would have won Game 7 if they started Wood (and had Kershaw on call) instead of starting Fuck Yu and leaving him in until the game was 5-0.

    Or if they didn't win, I think it would have been competitive.

    Their annihilation of the Dbacks and Cubs this year in the playoffs showed they weren't the same playoff team that they had been before.

    Also, Houston was a legit very good team, and the Dodgers bullpen advantage was kinda negated in that lol ballpark in Houston where every routine fly to LF is a home run.

    I really wish baseball had some reasonable minimum dimension standards for ballparks.
    If my Aunt had balls she would be my uncle but she doesn't so she isn't
    The dodgers choke Druff just admit it.
    Do you find it hard to root for that worthless scumbag Puig? I hated myself for rooting for Sosa back in the day.

  12. #12
    Druff,

    Dodgers will never win another championship in your lifetime.

  13. #13
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    I think they would have won Game 7 if they started Wood (and had Kershaw on call) instead of starting Fuck Yu and leaving him in until the game was 5-0.

    Or if they didn't win, I think it would have been competitive.

    Their annihilation of the Dbacks and Cubs this year in the playoffs showed they weren't the same playoff team that they had been before.

    Also, Houston was a legit very good team, and the Dodgers bullpen advantage was kinda negated in that lol ballpark in Houston where every routine fly to LF is a home run.

    I really wish baseball had some reasonable minimum dimension standards for ballparks.
    If my Aunt had balls she would be my uncle but she doesn't so she isn't
    The dodgers choke Druff just admit it.
    Do you find it hard to root for that worthless scumbag Puig? I hated myself for rooting for Sosa back in the day.
    Puig has charm for all of his immaturity, so he's a mixed bag.

    Sosa was just a roided fraud.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    If my Aunt had balls she would be my uncle but she doesn't so she isn't
    The dodgers choke Druff just admit it.
    Do you find it hard to root for that worthless scumbag Puig? I hated myself for rooting for Sosa back in the day.
    Puig has charm for all of his immaturity, so he's a mixed bag.

    Sosa was just a roided fraud.
    I liked Puig. Quirky. Mammoth god given skills remind me of Bo Jackson. His personality is out there for all to see. Itís honest.

    You tilt me so every year with the division bullshit. The division has always been trash. Better this year.

    Itís like the Patriots. Face it. A large part of their success is the AFC East is trash too. Automatic tourney bid. Makes it easier to go on a run. Bet letís not confuse the Patriots brains with the Dodgers.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass View Post
    Druff,

    Dodgers will never win another championship in your lifetime.
    I hate to do this. Druff always masked the pain of the Dodgers failure behind his perception of playoff variance. A look at World Series history reveals recurring teams - often in consecutive years.

    Oddsmakers consider this too. Dodgers are 5-1 atm. We will see. I figure we just have to fade one more year with Kershaw and the present group and we are in the clear.

    I detect some kind of automatic assumption by Druff that Dodgers resign him to a mega deal. This is exactly what the nerd trust does not do over there. They manage that team like they have the Marlins payroll. So dumb

  16. #16
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Puig has charm for all of his immaturity, so he's a mixed bag.

    Sosa was just a roided fraud.
    I liked Puig. Quirky. Mammoth god given skills remind me of Bo Jackson. His personality is out there for all to see. Itís honest.

    You tilt me so every year with the division bullshit. The division has always been trash. Better this year.

    Itís like the Patriots. Face it. A large part of their success is the AFC East is trash too. Automatic tourney bid. Makes it easier to go on a run. Bet letís not confuse the Patriots brains with the Dodgers.
    NL West was the best division in the NL in 2017.

    They would have won or wildcarded into the playoffs in the other 4 years, even if in the NL East or Central. Dodgers were a legitimately good regular season team regardless of which division they were in.

    You can't compare them to the AL, because those teams are built differently due to the DH.

    In fact, the Dodgers being in the same division as the strong Rockies and Dbacks was part of what sent them into that late-season, 1-16 tailspin. Those were two hot teams playing hard to keep themselves as the wildcard (and to secure home field advantage for it), and the Dodgers happened to face both of them a bunch of times while they were hot and the Dodgers temporarily went cold. Had the Dodgers been in a shittier division, they would have likely broken out of that slump earlier and won 110+ games.

  17. #17
    You cited multiple division flags. I conceded 2017 was better this year.

    Historically I am correct.

  18. #18
    will be interesting...if history has taught us anything money alone doesn't buy you shit in sports...gives you a leg up allowing you to buy nice new toys when you want, but if those toys are getting older they might not be the greatest toys any more...see the Yankees from let's say '10-'16...bunch of overpriced veteran players who were big names, given big contracts, and who declined QUICKLY...this year's team...outside of ellsbury/cc no ungodly overpriced older guys on bloated contracts...they got young in a hurry and those young guys performed admirably against the astros...

    so yeah while the dodgers might have all the money if they keep buying the carl crawfords of the world they're gonna be the '10-'16 yanks...good from april-september and then shit come October-November...

  19. #19
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    will be interesting...if history has taught us anything money alone doesn't buy you shit in sports...gives you a leg up allowing you to buy nice new toys when you want, but if those toys are getting older they might not be the greatest toys any more...see the Yankees from let's say '10-'16...bunch of overpriced veteran players who were big names, given big contracts, and who declined QUICKLY...this year's team...outside of ellsbury/cc no ungodly overpriced older guys on bloated contracts...they got young in a hurry and those young guys performed admirably against the astros...

    so yeah while the dodgers might have all the money if they keep buying the carl crawfords of the world they're gonna be the '10-'16 yanks...good from april-september and then shit come October-November...
    The Dodgers front office is pretty good, but it does have one glaring weakness. They are in love with oft-injured, middling pitchers who were once thought to have a high upside.

    They've wasted considerable money on Scott Kazmir, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy, with little return from any of them. This comes from their years in Tampa Bay, which was a small market operation. They couldn't afford the high-end pitchers, so they had to aim for the middle-end ones with a potentially unrealized upside. The problem is that this approach is foolish in a big market, where you should be spending money for players likely to bring results, rather than speculating on middle-money players who have only a small chance to be great (and a decent chance to be injured/crappy).

    So I hope the Dodgers don't speculate themselves into another high budget via mediocre $15m/year type players.

    I will admit that the Dodgers got a bit lucky with a few things in 2017. Wood unexpectedly improved out of nowhere. Chris Taylor came in as a cheap reserve and ended up being one of the team's better hitters. Cody Bellinger came up a year early and hit 39 HR. None of these were part of the team's plans, coming into the year.

    Even free-agent-wise, they got lucky in that Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner were close to leaving for other teams (and more money), and then Turner felt sentimental while at Jansen's wedding, decided to stay a Dodger, and talked Jansen (who was a hair away from going to the Nationals) to also stay.

    Anyway, if any good came from Darvish's horrid World Series, it's that the Dodgers won't want to touch him (most likely), and they won't make the dumb mistake of signing him to a long contract.

    There's some talk of Giancarlo Stanton coming to the Dodgers, but the Dodgers don't like his big contract, so it's looking like Willie's Cardinals are the frontrunners to get him. Oh, and the Giants have a good shot, too.

  20. #20
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Adrian Gonzalez $22.36 million
    Brandon McCarthy $11.5 million
    Scott Kazmir $17.67 million
    Hyun-Jin Ryu $7.83 million
    Erisbel Arruebarrena $6.5 million
    Andre Ethier buyout $2.5 million

    $68.3 mil OFF THE BOOKS for useless players in 2019.


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