Despite a solid record in the PFA WT on a week to week basis with player props I do not have the best record when I post a separate season long thread on a future bet I really like.
2 years ago I called for JT Barrett to win the Hiesman at 30-1 or better. In an epic bedshitting moment Urban decided to roll with Cardel Jones as his QB and cost himself a shot at a National Championship.
Last year after week 2 of preseason when it was announced Carson Wentz was going to start the year at QB for the eagles I advised and jumped on his ROY bandwagon at 30-1. I correctly predicted that they would give the award to a QB and was proved right after Zeke Elliot had arguably the best season of any RB and he didn't Win the award. Instead they gave the award to Prescott who never had his own odds posted at any of my locals.
This year I'm going with the same theory as previous years. In the NFL there is an enormous bias on QB's. I think last years award solidifys that bias as real. In my mind there are four rookie QB that have a real shot to have an impact in 2017.
Mitch Trubisky Bears. They just paid Glennon $15M a year to come in and babysit. Mitch started one season at UNC and from what I have read still needs a lot of time. He is going to get some time with the 1's this week but it's clear that he is not the starter here in week 1. My personal projection is he gets the job after the week 8 Bye when the Bears will be safely out of the playoff picture.
DeShawn Watson Texans. Long term this might be the guy from this class and frankly is the guy who scares me the most. I wouldn't fault anyone for hedging with Watson. That said as of this moment the Texans have aspirations of being a playoff team and they think a veteran like Savage is the best way to open the year. My projection is similar to the Bears. Unless the Texans get off to an awful start they don't turn over the job until after the week 7 Bye. What I'm Most afraid of is a 1-4 start and Watson coming in on his white horse.
Patrick Mahomes KC. Solidly behind Smith. I know he isn't popular and has limitations but the coaches love his consistency. I expect KC to win with Smith and I don't see a reason for a change.
And my 2017 NFL future of the season - DeShone Kizer QB Browns 15-1 or better. Available as high as 25-1 at some locals.
Oswiller is garbage and is better than 50/50 to be cut next week. Kessler is 5' 11" and is in no way a NFL QB. Kizer has shown so far in camp he is up to the challenge of starting the year. He is starting the game 3 dress rehearsal this weekend. The bar is super low. 3000 yards 20 TD and 5 wins for the Browns would be considered a great season and this is a team that has added a lot of talent the past 3 years. Kiser was the #13 QB coming out of high school and beat out some very good talent at Notre Dame to be the main guy.
My guess is you won't see this bet for more than 10-1 after this weekend..
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Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
