Originally Posted by HoodedN
Lew's a realist.
my prediction?
as a life long sox fan, i have low hopes this year.
so i'll have fun watching the cubs lose, the year after they won. it'll be all the more devastating for cubs fans who think this is going to be some kind of dynasty.
Sox make playoffs, but get ousted in first round.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next."
George Steinbrenner
Tied up in 9th. 3 run HR
You don't wanna know how deep I buried myself. Took +440 at one point
all three home teams, each predicted to finish out of the playoffs, win on opening day...
league = joke
G
A
Y
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
AL: Sox, Indians, Astros....Blue Jays & Rangers wild cards
NL: Nats, Cubs, Dodgers...Mets & Cardinals wild cards
Astros acquire a big name starter at the trade deadline (Verlander maybe?) and beat the Nats in the WS.
i thought i was getting plopped AGAIN when contreras hit the 3 run hr
maybe this year will be different and we finally win A BET vs kiddo pham
prolly not though, plop owns my soul
looking back i think sanlmar took cubs in-game?
sanlamar HCY?
Oh, to be clear LOSER
True that
Had Cubs +190, +300 & +440
When score was tied in 9th Cards were a dog. You know the public right? I coulda hedged the whole deal and been freerolling.
But that's not how we roll.
It's a sickness those Cubs.
You know the Cubs apocalypse is upon us when they trot out 44 yr old Uehara in late relief.
So PLOP goes into seclusion, right?
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-02-2017 at 10:11 PM.
bumgarner should be playing everyday
he could be the starting LF or 1B on a ton of teams, and then pitching every 5th day
such a rare talent
I dont bet favorites in MLB.
Gotta deal with stupid bitcoin atm until I find a bookie:
Miami +192
Atlanta +162
Giants/Dbacks game was a clusterfuck.
How does your team lose when your pitcher hits 2 HR, strikes out 11, and you score 5? Might be a long 4 years for Melancon.
I think this is going to be a breakout year for Carlos Martinez. Too bad the rest of the starting pitching is so mediocre.
And is there a player more enigmatic than Randall Grichuk?
Booked. I love season long sweats. GlI'll take Cubs u95 $50 and Royals o74 $50
No need to escrow. Just post booked here
TRUMP 2024!
Sanlmar you're pretty bear-ish on the Sawks.
Do you like taking Yankees+550 and Jays +425 for the AL East?
Sawks prolly still take the east. But that's just regular season. Something to do during the summer.
I'm not Druff.
Heavy chalk under for the Dodgers. Takes all the fun out it.
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 974 Boston Red Sox -151 for Game
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 958 San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers over 6½ -120 for Game
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 974 Pittsburgh Pirates/Boston Red Sox over 8½ -120 for Game
Parlay all above +459
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-03-2017 at 09:02 AM.
There's a possibility of that, but it's a bold prediction and I don't see it. He's already proven himself a top twenty starter in the league in his first two full seasons. In order to take another step he would have to develop more consistency in his changeup to neutralize his platoon splits. I don't believe that will happen due to his arm slot, which can also be credited for the tail on his pitches and his success against righties. He's one of the best, if not the best, right handed pitchers in the game against same sided opponents, but he's more close to average when he loses the platoon advantage. When you see him rip off a perfect changeup you think man if he could just repeat that over and over he'd be Pedro. Lefties would have the same non-chance with that change as righties do with the slider. It's such an electric pitch to see, it's almost one of a kind at 90 mph with a foot of break but I don't think he ever controls it like he can his fastball or slider. Even though he's a stud athlete, even by MLB standards, he's still only 6'0" and I just don't see it coming around like that. I really love the guy and even if he never becomes that, and he remains the current version of himself, that's still the Max Sherzer death-to-righties recipe of ace.
Carlos Martinez is awesome and will be as for as long as he throws 98 with tail.
It's an absolute shame Alex Reyes went down. But I think the staff will be fine as long as they stay healthy, otherwise their depth could be an issue.
I agree. The power is electric. He hits the ball hard. I don't think he'll ever be consistent day-to-day and there's almost nothing to be done about his walks and strikeouts given his discipline and contact skills, but with solid baserunning and defense .250/.300/.480 will get it done. He should be a solid regular for the duration of his rookie contract.
Cardinals extended Piscotty today, good for them.
They'll be fine. They're a good team, and 800 innings of 3.50 era out of their top four should provide a solid baseline for success.
------------------------------------------------
The NL essentially has four tiers.
great teams / division favorites (each division has one) - LAD, CHC, WSH
good teams / wild-card favorites (each division has one) - SFG, STL, NYM
mediocre / darkhorse wild-card (each division has one) - COL, PIT, MIA (shame col has all these injuries)
trash (each division has two) - ARZ, SD, MIL, CIN, ATL, PHI
--------------------------------------------------------------------
And now that the bet is booked, I think it's ok for me to say I like plop's side. Royals are projected for 73 wins and if they fall behind in the first half, they'll likely trade away their expiring contracts and fall short of that.
If I were a betting man (I'm not) I would look at the projected standings in that link from fangraphs (which takes multiple high-caliber projection systems into account) and then check the pythag/baseruns standings from last season (based off runs scored/allowed while pealing away sequencing (single single homerun = homerun single single or 10-0Win 0-1L = 5-0W 5-1W)) and look at under-performing/over-performing teams (notice Cubs played like 108 win team despite only winning 103, sawks 99W despite 93 actual, royals played like 77 win team despite winning 81) and see which teams I feel have been underrated/overrated by the books (which they base in part off of the bets coming in (right?) from casual fans looking at the actual records, not performance, from prior years). I would also key in on the under with teams that have high-end rental pieces to move at the deadline if they fall out of it (such as the yankees, tigers, royals and pirates off the top of my head). This may be poor advice, I have put very little thought into sports betting prior to this post.
Pretty much like last season....although I would swap ATL and MIA. Miami's rotation is brutal (RIP Jose) and theres not much help on the farm. ATL at least brought in the veteran arms to probably pitch to a league average ERA in the 2-4 spots (Colon, Dickey, Garcia) with a fair amount of live arms in the minors for when those guys inevitably break down.
One I'm gonna call early....Trea Turner will be high in the running for NL MVP, and maybe get more votes than his teammate Harper. Kid can straight play. 25 HR/60 SB is a real possibility for counting stats.....and playing SS full-time again.
Also, holy fuck SS quality right now league-wide might be the best ever. Definitely in my lifetime it is...and I thought it would be tough to top the group from around the turn of the century with Arod, Nomar, Tejada, Jeter etc. But now....wow. Correa, Seager, Lindor, Russell, Turner, Swanson, Bogaerts, Story, Diaz all young studs. Tulo still strong. Simmons still a defensive whiz who does enough with the bat to be a strong player. Machado still plays there some, and could play there all the time if needed.
I think half the teams in the league are batting their SS somewhere in the top 4 spots in the lineup.
Heard this on the radio and about fell off my chair and its a fact
In his last 250 ABs MadBaum has more HRs then either Mike Trout or Kris Bryant.. Holy shit.. Dude is the second coming of Babe Ruth at this rate..
In a more serious note its been said that San Fran Manager will in fact use MadBaum as a PH this season on his off days because he offers the best option many times compared to other guys coming off the bench.
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Oh come on Druff its the Dbacks it was opening day.. If anything should make you feel better that the Dodgers should be able to lock up the West by July.. Grienke is lucky he dodged a bullet yesterday.. He still looks lost here in AZ.. His velocity was suspect in Spring Training (his last Cactus start he only hit 90 on the gun 2x) meaning the Dodgers may have lucked out not getting him back if he's really suddenly starting to slide downhill with his control and speed going to be an albatross around the Dbacks necks if nothing changes because nobody will want to take him on with the contract he has unless AZ is stuck eating and continuing to pay him a chunk even wearing another uniform after the AS break.
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So the Dodgers destroyed the Padres 14-3.
Of course, they were facing Jhoulis Chacin, so that has to be taken into consideration.
Dodgers do have a pretty damn good offense, though, and it will be a fairly big upset if they don't take the NL West for the 5th straight year.
Starting pitching might be their Achilles heel, though, because once you get past Kershaw, you have Hill (old and easily injured), Maeda (easily injured & tires after a lot of IP), Urias (young, limited innings), and various failpitchers they have sitting around to take the 4th/5th spots of the week.
This will probably still be enough to win 93+ games and the NL West, but I'd really like to see some better options come playoff time, or it might be the same story once again.
Sadly, the 2010s Dodgers are becoming the 1990s Braves.
It's also a bit hard to believe that, for all the depth the Dodgers have, Andrew Toles is their leadoff man. He has a great story. In this day and age, for a player to go from stocking groceries to starting OF in the MLB playoffs in less than a year is simply amazing. That's a story I would believe from 1936, but not 2016. However, there's usually a reason guys like that are out of baseball, and I am skeptical that he will be a long term (or even medium term) solution. Fortunately for him, the Dodgers just don't really have starting-quality OF to replace him at the moment.
Still, a lineup with Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig, and Logan Forsythe is going to score a lot of runs.
Henry is correct regarding the 4 tiers in the NL. Indeed, it would be a shock to me if the division winners were not the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals. And it's interesting that each division has an "above-.500" second best type team -- Cardinals, Giants, and Mets.
Some people forget that the Cubs looked dead in the water several times during last year's postseason, but each time righted the ship and came up smelling roses. But I don't think we should be calling them a dynasty just yet.
More wins this year, dodgers or Red Sox?
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