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Thread: First Super Bowl Bet "Lock"

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    First Super Bowl Bet "Lock"

    Lock is a term that is thrown around way too much. As such I can't call the following a lock. That said I wanted to put this out there before the odds move any more.

    Under 117.5 Million Viewers -150

    The record was set two years ago at 114.4. Atlanta is a historically weak TV market.

    Dont put the kids college $$ on this and there is a good chance that they won't let you as the highest max bet I've seen is $500, but I really really like our chances here.

    Good luck.

     
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      sonatine: godspeed
      
      Shizzmoney: on this; like the bet considering the bad NFL ratings overall this year
      
      GambleBotsChafedPenis: Not Even Close/Thanks Rep

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    honestly i dont think gaga is going to be a huge draw either.

    if it was like jayz or something, id take the over tho.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

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    Gaga+cast of Hamilton = over

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Gaga+cast of Hamilton = over
    My sources tell me Elton John.

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    Lock is Atlanta - 3 1/2 for game @ +230
    :freelewfather

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Lock is Atlanta - 3 1/2 for game @ +230
    Yeah I've come full circle on this. The total too. I looked at this game and kind of sort of came up with a high scoring NE cover but the betting action screams a low scoring Atlanta win.

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    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Lock is Atlanta - 3 1/2 for game @ +230

    I'm inclined to agree. Are you betting heavy on it or just enough to make you watch the game?

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    Gold Kuntmissioner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Gaga+cast of Hamilton = over
    My sources tell me Elton John.
    There's yr lock.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Second lock here... same as last year.


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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Lock is a term that is thrown around way too much. As such I can't call the following a lock. That said I wanted to put this out there before the odds move any more.

    Under 117.5 Million Viewers -150

    The record was set two years ago at 114.4. Atlanta is a historically weak TV market.

    Dont put the kids college $$ on this and there is a good chance that they won't let you as the highest max bet I've seen is $500, but I really really like our chances here.

    Good luck.
    This looks like another great Daly call to me.

    Anecdotally, I have followed sports talk through 7 Pats Super Bowls. The shows are struggling to fill the time. No villains or storylines. Another surefire bet would be that my wife couldn't tell you the Patriots opponent on Sunday. Interest has got to be low.

    I also think the viewership "polling" is not on point any more as people watch through means other than cable. That serves as a hedge.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-31-2017 at 09:56 AM.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Why hasn't Tom and Bill and Kraft asked their good friend Mr President to attend?

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Just a few days after ticket sellers were listing Super Bowl seats at close to the most expensive levels in history, the market has crashed—and tickets might wind up dropping to the cheapest prices in recent years.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Why hasn't Tom and Bill and Kraft asked their good friend Mr President to attend?
    And Kraft did give a super bowl ring to Putin, maybe he swings by?

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Just a few days after ticket sellers were listing Super Bowl seats at close to the most expensive levels in history, the market has crashed—and tickets might wind up dropping to the cheapest prices in recent years.
    Same thing happens every year it's just this year it's starting early. there are very few people who will travel to the host city without tickets locked up. You get to 5-6 days before the game and the demand drys up except for local folks.

    By the way.... I'm not calling for some sort of record low here. It's just the record was 114.4 with Seattle in the game and I'm being told Atlanta is a smaller market with less demand for football than Seattle all else equal. An extra 3.1 M people is hard to find is all I'm saying.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Props on your Pro Bowl under. No amount of amount of money could get me to watch though.

    I was watching an old Jack Reacher flick and checked in to the Pro Bowl at one point.

    There it was, flag football. ROFL Great little conditioning exercise for the fans by Goodell.

    Couldn't tell when the flag football ended and the 3rd qtr started.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Props on your Pro Bowl under. No amount of amount of money could get me to watch though.

    I was watching an old Jack Reacher flick and checked in to the Pro Bowl at one point.

    There it was, flag football. ROFL Great little conditioning exercise for the fans by Goodell.

    Couldn't tell when the flag football ended and the 3rd qtr started.
    That bet was comical. I got called out by one agent after I went big on the under. Said I was the only one of his clients on the under and if it wasn't for me he'd make money this week. Said this will probably be the last week and that's because many futures and SB bets wrap up this week. When 80% of the $$ is one way and they moving the line the other that should tell you everything you need to know.

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    Gold Shizzmoney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Lock is a term that is thrown around way too much. As such I can't call the following a lock. That said I wanted to put this out there before the odds move any more.

    Under 117.5 Million Viewers -150

    The record was set two years ago at 114.4. Atlanta is a historically weak TV market.

    Dont put the kids college $$ on this and there is a good chance that they won't let you as the highest max bet I've seen is $500, but I really really like our chances here.

    Good luck.
    For those of you wondering (and you know who you are)..... Here's a list of viewership stats for every Super Bowl (the ratings were down last year from the years' previous):

    https://sportstvratings.com/historic...967-2016/7473/

    Another "lock" I am taking on Sunday....I got this at -500, but it is at -700 at other books: "Will a player on either team be seen kneeling during the national anthem? - NO".

    No player has kneeled all year for either team, a few Patriots players rose their fists earlier in the year (Martellus Bennett might do it in this game), and the Falcons decided to "hold hands" as their show of protest in unity in a game vs the Saints in Week 3. Falcons wideout Mohamed Sanu, who is Muslim, told the press during Media Day he was “here to talk about football” when asked about the ban. I don't think any player would want to show up their coach/team on the biggest game of the year, especially when one team is coached by a former assistant at the Naval Academy who Trump said gave him a kiss on the cheek.

     
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      Daly: If 6.8M more ture in this year they can have my $$
    Last edited by Shizzmoney; 02-03-2017 at 06:52 AM.
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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I just get nervous betting anything with a line of -400 or worse. 1 because it ties up credit. 2. Because Tom Brady has to tie one of his shoes and now your looking at a ass fucking loss.

    I love Pats heads. Have multiple hundreds of $$ on it. Sharpest Guy I know got $30K on it. All of it is at -120 or better. I see it listed at -1100 and -800 now. Again it's "a lock" but not a fucking chance I'm laying that.

     
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      Shizzmoney: If Tom Brady has to kneel during the anthem, they can have my money lol

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    National Anthem 2:08?

    sportsook over 2:07 -150

    Bovada under 2:09 -130

    They must have done a run through by now I'd imagine?

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