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Thread: Stupid question

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    One Percenter Pooh's Avatar
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    Stupid question

    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks

     
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      Crowe Diddly: not a dumb Q at all rep

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    PFA Emeritus Crowe Diddly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks
    obv depends on the sport or event. Not in college football, for sure, every year they have much worse odds win. Last year there were at least 2 > +5000 dogs win.

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    Silver Draymond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks
    obv depends on the sport or event. Not in college football, for sure, every year they have much worse odds win.
    I have chased long odds to catch up before, never successful. Basically college basketball, you got to hunt for them early in the season.
    In the SEC football you can catch a major upset early in September. Tough to do this late in the season. If you are looking for a huge reach you can bet Auburn in the Iron Bowl although you will not get anywhere near your asking price, maybe half. Might happen though.

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    It means they are expected to lose 1 in every 10.5 games, or something to that effect.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks
    No. But it would probably be the biggest upset of an average NCAAF weekend. It's not something most people see Coming.

    It's roughy a 14.5 favorite losing outright.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Point Spread Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
    -27 -4500.00 3000.00
    -24.5 -2400.00 1750.00
    -22 -2400.00 1600.00
    -20 -1625.00 1225.00
    -19 -1500.00 1100.00
    -17 -1590.00 1165.00
    -16.5 -1425.00 995.00
    -16 -1420.00 995.00
    -15.5 -1200.00 845.00
    -15 -1220.00 865.00
    -14.5 -1050.00 735.00
    -14 -940.00 675.00
    -13.5 -805.00 600.00
    -13 -790.00 575.00
    -12.5 -730.00 540.00
    -12 -680.00 515.00
    -11.5 -645.00 495.00
    -11 -605.00 455.00
    -10.5 -535.00 410.00
    -10 -505.00 400.00
    -9.5 -470.00 375.00
    -9 -425.00 340.00
    -8.5 -395.00 325.00
    -8 -335.00 275.00
    -7.5 -345.00 290.00
    -7 -305.00 260.00
    -6.5 -270.00 230.00
    -6 -245.00 210.00
    -5.5 -240.00 205.00
    -5 -230.00 195.00
    -4.5 -215.00 185.00
    -4 -205.00 180.00
    -3.5 -185.00 165.00
    -3 -160.00 140.00
    -2.5 -135.00 120.00
    -2 -130.00 115.00
    -1.5 -115.00 95.00
    -1 -110.00 35.00

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    One Percenter Pooh's Avatar
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    Thanks guys.

    This was how Uconn was favored against Northeastern in college hoops last night. After they already lost to Wagner in the opener. Uconn was number 18 in the country preseason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks
    No. That happens usually once a week or once a month, especially in college football. -1050 would be equivalent to a 14 point favorite losing in NFL. And maybe a 21 point favorite in college football. A few of those happened this past Saturday.

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    Silver Draymond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    Thanks guys.

    This was how Uconn was favored against Northeastern in college hoops last night. After they already lost to Wagner in the opener. Uconn was number 18 in the country preseason.
    It's a dangerous strategy. I played this back in the mid 2005 era. I probably had 4 sites going at once with betting odds. I eventually got broke down on PAC 10 football, I got sucked into betting o/u spreads. It never works. You got plenty of money, I get it, I am just telling you when I see -1050 I see a chaser and a sucker.

  10. #10
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draymond View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    Thanks guys.

    This was how Uconn was favored against Northeastern in college hoops last night. After they already lost to Wagner in the opener. Uconn was number 18 in the country preseason.
    It's a dangerous strategy. I played this back in the mid 2005 era. I probably had 4 sites going at once with betting odds. I eventually got broke down on PAC 10 football, I got sucked into betting o/u spreads. It never works. You got plenty of money, I get it, I am just telling you when I see -1050 I see a chaser and a sucker.
    What I usually say to People who ask about chalk money lines is set aside $200 and bet a $50 5 team chalk parlay for four weeks stright. Bet the strongest chalk they offer and see how you do in the end after the month is up.

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    Silver Draymond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Draymond View Post

    It's a dangerous strategy. I played this back in the mid 2005 era. I probably had 4 sites going at once with betting odds. I eventually got broke down on PAC 10 football, I got sucked into betting o/u spreads. It never works. You got plenty of money, I get it, I am just telling you when I see -1050 I see a chaser and a sucker.
    What I usually say to People who ask about chalk money lines is set aside $200 and bet a $50 5 team chalk parlay for four weeks stright. Bet the strongest chalk they offer and see how you do in the end after the month is up.
    No offense, but you are giving advice on long term grinding gambling. His post was how to catch up on a long shot in a couple bets.

  12. #12
    Platinum Lord of the Fraud's Avatar
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    Only real sports fans refer to it as "hoops" I heard.
    http://pnimg.net/w/articles-attachments/1/4c2/74d75c36d2.jpg

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    Platinum Lord of the Fraud's Avatar
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    So using the thread title as an umbrella for my own stupid question...

    I know the japs, and possibly Cuba? love their baseball.. But would there be enough foreign talent in or outside MLB to create a 'competitive' game between USA and ROW?

    Like to have a proper World Series.
    http://pnimg.net/w/articles-attachments/1/4c2/74d75c36d2.jpg

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    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    henry will know for sure but imo id say probably

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    PFA Emeritus Crowe Diddly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud View Post
    So using the thread title as an umbrella for my own stupid question...

    I know the japs, and possibly Cuba? love their baseball.. But would there be enough foreign talent in or outside MLB to create a 'competitive' game between USA and ROW?

    Like to have a proper World Series.
    they run the World Baseball Classic every 4(?) years, and while not every star from every country plays, Japan and the Dominicans run that shit.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    I think LOTF is referencing more of a MLB vs ROW.

    What % of ball players actually are US born/raised? Can't be too high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
    I don't bet at all so I have no clue.

    If a team is -1050 and loses outright would it be considered an upset of epic proportions? Like a once a decade loss?

    Thanks



    you mean for example, like this team??


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  18. #18
    Platinum Lord of the Fraud's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud View Post
    So using the thread title as an umbrella for my own stupid question...

    I know the japs, and possibly Cuba? love their baseball.. But would there be enough foreign talent in or outside MLB to create a 'competitive' game between USA and ROW?

    Like to have a proper World Series.
    they run the World Baseball Classic every 4(?) years, and while not every star from every country plays, Japan and the Dominicans run that shit.

    Interesting.

    Would've thought with some Ryder Cup style promoting they could make it a huge deal.

    Best of 3 with a game held in Tokyo maybe.

    If it really would be a competitive series, I can't understand why this doesn't already happen with all the elite players vying to get in their respective teams.
    http://pnimg.net/w/articles-attachments/1/4c2/74d75c36d2.jpg

  19. #19
    Platinum Lord of the Fraud's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I think LOTF is referencing more of a MLB vs ROW.

    What % of ball players actually are US born/raised? Can't be too high.

    American born baseball players Vs ROW. Kinda on the same principle as the Ryder Cup.

    Is great when the whole nation is behind a team every 4 years or w/e.
    http://pnimg.net/w/articles-attachments/1/4c2/74d75c36d2.jpg

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    Plutonium Brittney Griner's Clit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    It means they are expected to lose 1 in every 10.5 games, or something to that effect.

    Flawed in two ways.

    First off you are forgetting about juice.

    Second off following your logic a -200 would be expected to lose every other game and a -100 would be expected to lose every game.

    So if -1050 was the true moneyline you would be expected to lose 1 in every 11.5 games.


    But it's not the true moneyline. Without tracking down the math formula and going by Daly's chart where -1050 translates to +735 the true moneyline would land somewhere between (+/-) 750-780.

    So they are expected to lose about 1 in every 8.5 games.


    And no I can't show my work. I flunked out of Calculus. I know I'm right though.
    Last edited by Brittney Griner's Clit; 11-15-2016 at 09:14 PM.

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