What would you do? (Prop bets)

[WillieMcFML]

So i made two cards vs cubs prop bets vs a friend who i will call NLMAO

one was season wins which i already lost for $100 (he gave me 2.5 games i think and i know it was a homer bet obv)

our second bet after the all star break was a post-season last longer - my $100 vs his $1k

a few days ago, i offered he could buyout for $100 (making us even) and he declined, but since then SF has continued to shit the bed, Mets have been meh, and STL won 4 straight.

tonight he asked if that bet still was on, and i said no I want $150. he NLMAO'd me like he always does and says no, and i lowered my offer down to $125 after some negotiating because i really just wanted to be absolved of what i owe and get SOMETHING from him as he has never lost a bet to me

he held steady at $111 once SF won. although i believe my equity is much higher

what does pfa think the proper buyout should be?

[Lord of the Fraud]

(Plop bets)

[Dan Druff]

Your equity is way higher. This isn't the NBA where it's a shock where a super-dominant team bows out before a 7-8 seed.

In MLB, anything can happen in the postseason.

Look at that shitty Giants team in 2014 which won the World Series. This was a team which had three losing months, including September, but Bumgarner carried them and Big Panda got hot.

Look at last year's Mets. Daniel Murphy carried that team with a sudden tear of power that nobody expected.

Honestly I believe it will be Cubs/Dodgers in the NLCS, but no way I would take -1000 for the Cubs outlasting any of the three teams vying for the NL wildcard. Odds way too steep.

So yes, you got fleeced.

However, it is NLMAO's choice to accept or reject any buyout offer for any reason, so he didn't do anything unethical.

[WillieMcFML]

Your equity is way higher. This isn't the NBA where it's a shock where a super-dominant team bows out before a 7-8 seed.

In MLB, anything can happen in the postseason.

Look at that shitty Giants team in 2014 which won the World Series. This was a team which had three losing months, including September, but Bumgarner carried them and Big Panda got hot.

Look at last year's Mets. Daniel Murphy carried that team with a sudden tear of power that nobody expected.

Honestly I believe it will be Cubs/Dodgers in the NLCS, but no way I would take -1000 for the Cubs outlasting any of the three teams vying for the NL wildcard. Odds way too steep.

So yes, you got fleeced.

However, it is NLMAO's choice to accept or reject any buyout offer for any reason, so he didn't do anything unethical.

i didn't accept anything, and obv he can offer whatever he feels like. my question is where pfa feels my equity is...

3 team race for two spots but obviously SF has been one of the worst second half teams.

so maybe STL has a 72-ish percent to make to make the playoffs based off trends and schedule of the 3 potential playoff teams?

say 50% to win wild card game?

[BCR]

I forget how baseball does it.

The Cubs, for sure, get winner of wildcard playoff game, correct?


So right now espn shows Cards at 63.9% to make playoffs. It seems like 3 teams are tied, thus it's 50/50 who gets the game at home. To really put a true % you'd have to look at respective schedules.

So 63.9•.50 puts us at 31.95% to even reach that Cubs series. What equity would Cards have against Cubs? It's baseball, but the cubs are really good. Feels like maybe 30%? That would put you at like 9.6% chance to win bet. So he has 9.6% chance to lose a 1000, or 90.4% to win another $100. This is assuming the Cards have 30% equity, as opposed to 35%. That would give you 11.2% to win bet.

Your negotiations feel in the right range. I don't think his offer is unfair. I also understand your optimism Cards could catch fire given their history. Considering it's like 32% he ends up laying 10-1 in Cubs-Cards series between a historic winner and a tragic franchise of fail, I'd probably buy out for $140ish, but I'm not sure the math dictates he should.

[WillieMcFML]

I forget how baseball does it.

The Cubs, for sure, get winner of wildcard playoff game, correct?


So right now espn shows Cards at 63.9% to make playoffs. It seems like 3 teams are tied, thus it's 50/50 who gets the game at home. To really put a true % you'd have to look at respective schedules.

So 63.9•.50 puts us at 31.95% to even reach that Cubs series. What equity would Cards have against Cubs? It's baseball, but the cubs are really good. Feels like maybe 30%? That would put you at like 9.6% chance to win bet. So he has 9.6% chance to lose a 1000, or 90.4% to win another $100. This is assuming the Cards have 30% equity, as opposed to 35%. That would give you 11.2% to win bet.

Your negotiations feel in the right range. I don't think his offer is unfair. I also understand your optimism Cards could catch fire given their history. Considering it's like 32% he ends up laying 10-1 in Cubs-Cards series, I'd probably buy out for $140ish, but I'm not sure the math dictates he should.

i think our numbers are close but i think cards' chances for wildcard are greater than 66.7% given how bad SF has been playing and given their schedule. I would be surprised if the two wild card teams weren't STL & NY. Also, if the Cards were to win the wildcard game, they have played five hundred against the Cubs this season, so although I think the baby bears would be favorites, I see them having more 40-45% equity (especially since the Cards have the best road record).

[BCR]

I forget how baseball does it.

The Cubs, for sure, get winner of wildcard playoff game, correct?


So right now espn shows Cards at 63.9% to make playoffs. It seems like 3 teams are tied, thus it's 50/50 who gets the game at home. To really put a true % you'd have to look at respective schedules.

So 63.9•.50 puts us at 31.95% to even reach that Cubs series. What equity would Cards have against Cubs? It's baseball, but the cubs are really good. Feels like maybe 30%? That would put you at like 9.6% chance to win bet. So he has 9.6% chance to lose a 1000, or 90.4% to win another $100. This is assuming the Cards have 30% equity, as opposed to 35%. That would give you 11.2% to win bet.

Your negotiations feel in the right range. I don't think his offer is unfair. I also understand your optimism Cards could catch fire given their history. Considering it's like 32% he ends up laying 10-1 in Cubs-Cards series, I'd probably buy out for $140ish, but I'm not sure the math dictates he should.

i think our numbers are close but i think cards' chances for wildcard are greater than 66.7% given how bad SF has been playing and given their schedule. I would be surprised if the two wild card teams weren't STL & NY. Also, if the Cards were to win the wildcard game, they have played five hundred against the Cubs this season, so although I think the baby bears would be favorites, I see them having more 40-45% equity (especially since the Cards have the best road record).

You're like 1 out of 3 to get to that series, and then you'll be arguing between $350 and $420 buyout. I'm of two minds. You have the charmed franchise, but that twink owns your soul gambling.

[Krypt]

Are you still bangin H?

[Sanlmar]

variance is Druff's Rosebud.

Bumgarner pitched on short rest during regular season and never had those results. That he silenced bats was variance in a 6'5" frame.

Imagine if Mets Murphy had some frigging help from his pitching staff. They mighta been a contender. Admittedly, Murphy reverted back to the mean this year.

How is it that the same teams consistently show up in the World Series?

Have Druff answer the question and construct a dollar figure he sees as a fair reflection of the world as he perceives it. Dare I say a number he would take himself.

Sometimes I think he is trolling for hits but I recall he is a wounded warrior and this feels real to him.

[GrenadaRoger]

i also believe you EV is way higher than his offer--indeed, you settlement at $150 seems low too

but there are other issues:

you want the satisfaction of winning, you are risk adverse to losing 100 & you guys are friends and want to keep betting in the future---you want to make a deal and are willing to give up some value to do so

$150 is what you think is fair, and he wants to pay only $111 cash now...

so a compromise, with a sporting angle might appeal to him

so how about offer to take the $111 now and carryover the difference to another bet, round it up to $40?

here's one...the Cubs are expected to be even better next year, so how about an even moeny prop that the Cubs win more regular season games in 2017 than in 2016? The value of something like that would be more than $111 but less than $150 (around maybe $135?)

[Dan Druff]

Alternately, someone else could buy Willie's action from him at a rate higher than $111.

[PLOL]

I forget how baseball does it.

The Cubs, for sure, get winner of wildcard playoff game, correct?


So right now espn shows Cards at 63.9% to make playoffs. It seems like 3 teams are tied, thus it's 50/50 who gets the game at home. To really put a true % you'd have to look at respective schedules.

So 63.9•.50 puts us at 31.95% to even reach that Cubs series. What equity would Cards have against Cubs? It's baseball, but the cubs are really good. Feels like maybe 30%? That would put you at like 9.6% chance to win bet. So he has 9.6% chance to lose a 1000, or 90.4% to win another $100. This is assuming the Cards have 30% equity, as opposed to 35%. That would give you 11.2% to win bet.

Yep, this was basically my thinking and it's why I rejected the buy-out. I think my offer was fair.

Alternately, someone else could buy Willie's action from him at a rate higher than $111.

I would be so mad if I found out

[BiffCo99]

Your equity is way higher. This isn't the NBA where it's a shock where a super-dominant team bows out before a 7-8 seed.

In MLB, anything can happen in the postseason.

Look at that shitty Giants team in 2014 which won the World Series. This was a team which had three losing months, including September, but Bumgarner carried them and Big Panda got hot.

Look at last year's Mets. Daniel Murphy carried that team with a sudden tear of power that nobody expected.

Honestly I believe it will be Cubs/Dodgers in the NLCS, but no way I would take -1000 for the Cubs outlasting any of the three teams vying for the NL wildcard. Odds way too steep.

So yes, you got fleeced.

However, it is NLMAO's choice to accept or reject any buyout offer for any reason, so he didn't do anything unethical.

Yep, just like the '88 Dodgers who got hot and somehow beat two far superior teams in the Mets and A's. Anything can happen in baseball.

[big dick]

Dodgers fans suck. I was watching them play sf last night on espn and the stadium was half empty. Pathetic

[GrenadaRoger]

Dodgers fans suck. I was watching them play sf last night on espn and the stadium was half empty. Pathetic

attendance per the box score was 53,000+

http://m.mlb.com/gameday/giants-vs-d...me_state=final

Dodger Stadium seating capacity is 56,500, thus the place was way more than half full for at least a few innings

if the stadium was half empty when you looked in it was because half the crowd was stuck in traffic coming to/going from the game (arriving before the 3rd inning is just soooo B list style) (people start leaving during the 7th inning to beat the crush)

[PLOL]

You boys looked great out there tonight

[Daly]

Absolutely fucking do not take that buyout. Fuck him in the ear.

if they make the playoffs that bets worth less than 10-1. Plus this is the Cubs we are talking about.

[big dick]

Dodgers fans suck. I was watching them play sf last night on espn and the stadium was half empty. Pathetic

attendance per the box score was 53,000+

http://m.mlb.com/gameday/giants-vs-d...me_state=final

Dodger Stadium seating capacity is 56,500, thus the place was way more than half full for at least a few innings

if the stadium was half empty when you looked in it was because half the crowd was stuck in traffic coming to/going from the game (arriving before the 3rd inning is just soooo B list style) (people start leaving during the 7th inning to beat the crush)

Fuck that Id rather sit in traffic than miss the 9th inning.

[WillieMcFML]

willing to auction half my action against NLMAO in post season last longer

minimum bid $68

auction will close at end of radio - must pay via paypal (your half of possible winnings can be sent directly from NLMAO or from Druff via NLMAO)

if no offers will keep everything myself with hopes of bending NLMAO harder than OSA did (he is ok with this btw ((both selling auction and OSA))

[PLOL]

$50