*** OFFICIAL *** One Drop $1 million dollar super lotto donkament discussion thread

[LLL]

I'm sure that you know more about it than I do but my main point was that for someone who has had tax problems in the past to blow a million that he just won is absurd. I'm not sure about Nevada but in Mississippi they will deduct state taxes(albeit it not a high percentage) before they pay you out on any score over $1200 and give you a state w-2g or i9g I can't remember which number.

Again, the state can take out the taxes like a jackpot, but if you don't make any money on gambling they have to end it back. If you win small poker torunies and have this state tax taken out like in Louisiana, but then dont file a LA return stating you lost x gambling at craps with some ATM machine receipt....you just paid a stupid tax. Especially in MS


No state tax in Nevada would apply.


Yes he is putting too much of his bankroll if he he isnt staked.


Even if i was the grinder this isn't a good tourney pay out and field to have much of an edge IMO. The only wildcard is establishing yourself as a brand like Helmuth. If this thing takes off on TV, and I know zero about what kind of TV will apply, then being on camera a lot in a well promoted TV tourney can be worth money in future horseshit freerolls at local indian casino championships, ad money and guest appearances, if executed correctly. Phil works this angle now, so does Antonio, but I have never heard of Grinder being sponsored by anyone anywhere in brick or mortar.

He had some deal with the Planet Hollywood poker room back in '07. If I recall the relationship didn't end well.

[TheXFactor]

The Grinder didn't put in any of his own money into the $1 million dollar One Drop.
He sold shares of himself in the tournament a long time ago.

I'm sure the Grinder was staked for the entire WSOP as well.

Daniel Negreanu had 3 different investors stake him in this tournament.
Phil Hellmuth is claiming that the winner of the satellite at Aria wanted Phil to play for him. (Bullshit, Phil stole the seat!)

Antonio Esfandiari and Sam Trickett must be overwhelming favorites to win this tournament.
Unless the whole thing is rigged and in that case Guy Laliberté is the winner.

The final table should be broadcast on ESPN in about an hour.

[peter mcneil]

The betting odds on this thing are out of line, way overestimating the skill advantage in a donkament where there really aren't any weak players that will fold to cash up a level. They will take spots and let the cards runout. So the odds should be much closer to the chipstack advantage. This is especially true given the prize weight on first. The tricky ICM spots where amateurs make mistakes are not really there. Making what is normally a bad call with a good hand is now a good call because of the top heavy payout.

There is just no way anyone is a 2:1 favorite in this structure with these players.

Set odds:

Payouts:

Chip counts:

Exactly. I think the worst bet in history is on the British guy. This guy is staked heavily and he needs to scrape into the top 3 or 4 to have a decent profit. I can't imagine Rast having a favorable stake deal either, but at least he is going off at 8-1.

If helmuth is staked he is getting a great deal IMHO and it shouldnt be that great of a factor. I know people dog him on his play but he is so well known he can get a stake with a great payback. I really believe he is the best bet considering the odds. I like him in these situations. He does well and he is only against 3 other people who still play poker for a living.

Guy Liberte is not winnning his own tourney and he will meltdown if he gets in final 3 trying to be too flambo. 6-1? Come on man.


Esfiandari is the second worst bet here. He probably is getting stakes too and 2 to 1 is ridiculous.

I think Einhorn or Baldwin is the second best bet here.

Id bet-

Helmuth
Einhorn
baldwin
Yong
Rast
Liberte
Esfiandari
Trickett


If anyone likes one of these more than i do in a different order, I will book your bet if you book mine.

In other words. If you like Trickett and want to bet against Rast, I will take it. i won't bet against Einhorn and bet on Rast though for example.


Let me know.

Hellmuth played a 25k satellite to get in, they were down to the final 8 players who came up with a payout structure and just had Hellmuth play on their behalf. I think he's always a decent bet because his ego alone will have him playing his best game possible.

Is this going to be streamed as well? I don't get ESPN up here in Canada.

[Deal]

Is this going to be streamed as well? I don't get ESPN up here in Canada.

Starts in 40min, hole cards revealed as well.

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html


also suppose to stream here: http://www.wsop.com/2012/live-video/...aspx?TID=12155

[peter mcneil]

Is this going to be streamed as well? I don't get ESPN up here in Canada.

Starts in 40min, hole cards revealed as well.

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html

beauty, thanks! So beyond the odds, who are people cheering for? Einhorn is the obvious choice. Antonio or Rast I'm ok with, I can't really tell with Trickett, obvioulsy a skilled player but no reads on him as a guy. Laliberte might make big news by winning which could be good for poker although I don't want to deal with the 'tournament is rigged' retards.

What are the starting blinds today?

[shortbuspoker]

from Antonio's twitter pretty damned sexy

[bukowski72]

On now ESPN2

[FPS_Russia]

Antonio's a beast at the pokerz. I would be much more intimidated playing Antonio than Ivey. Heck I'd probably school Ivey if the truth was known. Ivey is very very very overrated imo. My favorite to win is Antonio.

Holy shit somebody has to bust out 1st, omg that would suck.

My prediction, of course some major league chip count fluctuations are all but certain.

[rickastley]

einhorn not showing his hole cards to the cam (being shown on 15 min delay post-hand), hope he doesn't win now even though it's going to charity.

[drufdajewgod]

einhorn not showing his hole cards to the cam (being shown on 15 min delay post-hand), hope he doesn't win now even though it's going to charity.

was thinking the same thing, what a tool. he pulls some 2nd grader hollywood bullshit on laliberte with a monster hand obv then doesnt show when everybody is showing.

[drufdajewgod]

einhorn not showing his hole cards to the cam (being shown on 15 min delay post-hand), hope he doesn't win now even though it's going to charity.

was thinking the same thing, what a tool. he pulls some 2nd grader hollywood bullshit on laliberte with a monster hand obv then doesnt show when everybody is showing.

antonio is running good and playing good

[Deal]

einhorn not showing his hole cards to the cam (being shown on 15 min delay post-hand), hope he doesn't win now even though it's going to charity.

Not surprising that a ultra successful person is in fact a scumbag.

[FPS_Russia]

Guy folded that Jack lol. This shit could take for ever, should I waste a few more hours hmmmmm.

[tommyt]

i would say its going to last another 5 hours maybe six after the break.

[Vwls]

Are the nasty little ads that you have to click to get rid of when you first visit the site (http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html) going to infect my computer with a root kit or various spyware issues?

[tommyt]

Are the nasty little ads that you have to click to get rid of when you first visit the site (http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html) going to infect my computer with a root kit or various spyware issues?

www.espn3.com

best place to stream it.

no bs

[DropKick]

Are the nasty little ads that you have to click to get rid of when you first visit the site (http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html) going to infect my computer with a root kit or various spyware issues?

I've been watching streams from firstrow every week for ages and never had any problems at all.

[Vwls]

Are the nasty little ads that you have to click to get rid of when you first visit the site (http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1290...-one-drop.html) going to infect my computer with a root kit or various spyware issues?

I've been watching streams from firstrow every week for ages and never had any problems at all.

Cool thanks )

[hotshott74]

I wonder if Guy is still going to throw one of his party's tonight?

[peter mcneil]

I wonder if Guy is still going to throw one of his party's tonight?

seems pretty likely, he didnt even blink when Antonio spiked the king on the turn, must be night to play million dollar buy in events as a billionaire.