Another WSOP tournament spot I'd like to discuss

[Dan Druff]

This hand is not nearly as interesting as the TT hand from the other thread, but it's a situation I see come up a lot, so I'd like to talk about it.

Situation:

Day 2 of the WSOP Bounty NL $1500 event.

Everyone has already mincashed. Due to the bounty situation, the prize pool is VERY flat, and you don't even see 5 figures until you get very close to the final table.

Blinds are 800/1600, antes are 200. I have about 52k. Average is about 65k.

Villain #1 "MJ" is Martin Jacobson, 2014 Main Event champion. He came in with 110k but has opened a lot of pots without success, and has slipped down to about 80k.

Villan #2 "GE" is a German poker pro who is loose-aggressive and seems good. You have seen him attempting (and getting caught) bluffing in a big pot, where his opponent almost laid down a top-and-bottom-pair but didn't.

It's about 90 minutes into Day 2. You have had very few playable hands, and appear to be a tight middle-aged white guy.

MJ opens to 3500 UTG.

Folds to you, you look and see 3s3c in middle position. You consider 3-betting (because MJ folded on the 2nd hand of the day when you did just that, as he seems to open a lot with weak holdings), but don't want to create a big pot with your stack and just 33 in your hand. You decide to set-mine and just flat.

GE is two seats to your left. He looks like he is thinking about what to do, and seems to be considering raising, but just flats. Everyone else folds.

Flop: 7d4d2s

MJ fires 5k.

What do you do?

[Deal]

Fold Pre. Flatting with M12 is terribad.

I read your twitter. NL is not a showdown game. All you did was whine about cards and missing flops as if you were playing a limit donkfest versus calling stations.

[Dan Druff]

I realize it's not a showdown game, and I bet plenty of people off missed flops yesterday. I've also cashed in 3 of the last 7 NL events I've played at the WSOP.

Today I was both missing flops and running into opponents who didn't miss. In the showdowns I did see, I would have just shot off my stack if I attempted to force them off their hands.

I tolerate your trolling in the Flying Stupidity section, but this is the 2nd trollish message you posted in this forum, and I don't want to see that here. I removed the portion of your message that was simply trolling.

But since you also answered my strategy question, I'll ask you a follow up.

Martin Jacobson, who won $10 million two years ago, is playing this one loose and opening a lot of pots. You're really folding 33 to his open here?

My thought process was twofold. First, high chance he's getting it in with me if I flop a set and he has a reasonable part of the flop. Second, I didn't want to bloat the pot with a three-bet because I'll end up becoming more and more pot-committed postflop, and on any non-set board, that's a crappy way to blow off this still-playable stack.

So I figured I would both set mine and also perhaps raise the flop if I think it missed him. Remember, I looked very tight over the first 90 minutes (being dealt complete trash repeatedly), so I figured my bets/raises postflop would get respect.

What are you hoping for by folding pre? To blind down to a shortstack in an event with an incredibly flat pay structure? I saw a chance to chip up to over 100k by committing 3500 out of my 52k, against a loose player with a semi-recent $10m score. I don't care what you say, I will always be happy to put in 6.7% of my stack to potentially get into a spot where I can double my chips in a fast-moving, flat-paying event.

You may not agree with the call, but there's no way it's "terribad".

BTW, the "M" thinking ended 10 years ago. Today's game is much more about number of big blinds, and I still had 32.5 of them.

I would like your response, but only if it's going to be respectful. If it's going to be more trolling, I'm deleting it.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, while anyone is welcome to comment about the pre-flop play, I am more interested in the flop play.

On a low board like that, do you try to represent something big and take down the pot (19.5k) right there? Do you fold? Do you flat the 5k bet and see what happens?

And if you do try to take down the pot right there, what amount would you raise to?

These are the questions I'd like to see answered in this thread.

[RegGaymer]

Fold pre, as played, fold flop. IMO

[Dan Druff]

BTW I actually do fold drawing hands pre which don't play well when the blinds are big.

So a hand like 9c8c is one that I will flat earlier in the event (provided I'm sufficiently deep), but not at this stage. I actually did fold that to one player raise today.

I don't like drawy hands when each street costs so much. Totally kills their value.

However, except in 1-card straight situations, (like 245), a hand like 33 usually either hits big or misses big. That's why I called it.

[Deal]

I realize it's not a showdown game, and I bet plenty of people off missed flops yesterday. I've also cashed in 3 of the last 7 NL events I've played at the WSOP.

Today I was both missing flops and running into opponents who didn't miss. In the showdowns I did see, I would have just shot off my stack if I attempted to force them off their hands.

I tolerate your trolling in the Flying Stupidity section, but this is the 2nd trollish message you posted in this forum, and I don't want to see that here. I removed the portion of your message that was simply trolling.

But since you also answered my strategy question, I'll ask you a follow up.

Martin Jacobson, who won $10 million two years ago, is playing this one loose and opening a lot of pots. You're really folding 33 to his open here?

My thought process was twofold. First, high chance he's getting it in with me if I flop a set and he has a reasonable part of the flop. Second, I didn't want to bloat the pot with a three-bet because I'll end up becoming more and more pot-committed postflop, and on any non-set board, that's a crappy way to blow off this still-playable stack.

So I figured I would both set mine and also perhaps raise the flop if I think it missed him. Remember, I looked very tight over the first 90 minutes (being dealt complete trash repeatedly), so I figured my bets/raises postflop would get respect.

What are you hoping for by folding pre? To blind down to a shortstack in an event with an incredibly flat pay structure? I saw a chance to chip up to over 100k by committing 3500 out of my 52k, against a loose player with a semi-recent $10m score. I don't care what you say, I will always be happy to put in 6.7% of my stack to potentially get into a spot where I can double my chips in a fast-moving, flat-paying event.

You may not agree with the call, but there's no way it's "terribad".

BTW, the "M" thinking ended 10 years ago. Today's game is much more about number of big blinds, and I still had 32.5 of them.

I would like your response, but only if it's going to be respectful. If it's going to be more trolling, I'm deleting it.

First off bragging that you min-cashed 3 of 7 events just bolsters my point that you are a fish out of water. You should not be cashing that often. One final 3 is worth more than 20 cashes. You play like Kessler as if it's a satellite where cashing is meaningful. People that are worth paying markup to do not value cashing. They are playing to maximize returns which means playing the high variance game that the skewed payouts determine.

22-66 is an instafold in a raised pot unless you are bluffing with them. You need to retain post raise fold equity. You really want to donk off that many chips hoping to hit a baby set versus top pair showdown? You are losing chips 90% of the time and 20% of those times it is all of them.

Keep your chips and use them the same way that lady did to you last hand you posted. Get someone you have a donk read on to laydown a better hand.

Did you really imply that ante's don't influence the play. You are suggesting that math is overruled by what the cool kids say? I expected more from you.

Shine up the bracelet and GL in the ME.

[Dan Druff]

I realize it's not a showdown game, and I bet plenty of people off missed flops yesterday. I've also cashed in 3 of the last 7 NL events I've played at the WSOP.

Today I was both missing flops and running into opponents who didn't miss. In the showdowns I did see, I would have just shot off my stack if I attempted to force them off their hands.

I tolerate your trolling in the Flying Stupidity section, but this is the 2nd trollish message you posted in this forum, and I don't want to see that here. I removed the portion of your message that was simply trolling.

But since you also answered my strategy question, I'll ask you a follow up.

Martin Jacobson, who won $10 million two years ago, is playing this one loose and opening a lot of pots. You're really folding 33 to his open here?

My thought process was twofold. First, high chance he's getting it in with me if I flop a set and he has a reasonable part of the flop. Second, I didn't want to bloat the pot with a three-bet because I'll end up becoming more and more pot-committed postflop, and on any non-set board, that's a crappy way to blow off this still-playable stack.

So I figured I would both set mine and also perhaps raise the flop if I think it missed him. Remember, I looked very tight over the first 90 minutes (being dealt complete trash repeatedly), so I figured my bets/raises postflop would get respect.

What are you hoping for by folding pre? To blind down to a shortstack in an event with an incredibly flat pay structure? I saw a chance to chip up to over 100k by committing 3500 out of my 52k, against a loose player with a semi-recent $10m score. I don't care what you say, I will always be happy to put in 6.7% of my stack to potentially get into a spot where I can double my chips in a fast-moving, flat-paying event.

You may not agree with the call, but there's no way it's "terribad".

BTW, the "M" thinking ended 10 years ago. Today's game is much more about number of big blinds, and I still had 32.5 of them.

I would like your response, but only if it's going to be respectful. If it's going to be more trolling, I'm deleting it.

First off bragging that you min-cashed 3 of 7 events just bolsters my point that you are a fish out of water. You should not be cashing that often. One final 3 is worth more than 20 cashes. You play like Kessler as if it's a satellite where cashing is meaningful. People that are worth paying markup to do not value cashing. They are playing to maximize returns which means playing the high variance game that the skewed payouts determine.

22-66 is an instafold in a raised pot unless you are bluffing with them. You need to retain post raise fold equity. You really want to donk off that many chips hoping to hit a baby set versus top pair showdown? You are losing chips 90% of the time and 20% of those times it is all of them.

Keep your chips and use them the same way that lady did to you last hand you posted. Get someone you have a donk read on to laydown a better hand.

Did you really imply that ante's don't influence the play. You are suggesting that math is overruled by what the cool kids say? I expected more from you.

Shine up the bracelet and GL in the ME.

Serious question: Have you ever played a WSOP event?

It kind of sounds like you haven't, because you are describing things which rarely occur there.

Donks at WSOP NL events call too much postflop, rather than fold too much. You can blow them off hands like middle pair, but good luck getting them off top pair unless it's early in the event when everyone's deep. I actually laugh at some of the tournament pros I see trying to bluff donks all in, only to see the donks make the crying call and suddenly the pro's big stack is gone. These pros are excellent at making moves on people who have a clue, but often misplay donks.

You also don't seem to understand how play works in Day 2 of these events. People can't make laydowns unless it's big stack versus big stack. You flop top pair against a below-average stack on Day 2, you're usually stuck calling it off, unless it's a super-straightforward rec who only raises with the nuts or close to it. I'm not speaking of my personal play. I'm speaking of the play of just about everyone I've seen at these events in those later stages.

For that reason, flopping a set becomes super-valuable with a stack are like mine in this hand, because your chance of doubling on a set is fairly high if your opponent flopped at least decently. So it's worth risking less than 7% of your stack to take a shot at that, because the upside is so high.

Ironic that you are mocking me for "3 min cashes" (which isn't even true, as one of them was 40th out of nearly 1200 people), yet advocating a tighter play style with a below-average stack while the blinds are high and rapidly escalating. You are the one supporting an overly nitty style which will result in blinding down far too often.

Finally, I did not ever say that antes don't matter. You're putting words in my mouth. I said that "M" is mid-2000s thinking. The game has since evolved past that. The opening raises have become much smaller, pot control has become more important, c-bets have shrunk, and stack-related strategy has become much more related to number of big blinds than M. At this point, M is only useful when deciding preflop shoving decisions. The reason for this change is related to the smaller preflop raises and c-bets, to where the antes in the pot are not really affecting the size of these bets very much.

It's not about the "cool kids". It's about evolving along with the game.

Same reason it's frequently not correct anymore to raise on the flop in limit holdem to buy a free turn card, because everyone has learned that move, and you get three-bet fairly often.

[Dan Druff]

I will say that I have learned at these events that it's wise in the later stages to save chips for big hands where you feel good about getting it in, because people will have a tough time folding, and you want to give yourself the maximum opportunity in those spots.

So I like the set-mining and the strong preflop hands that will play well in all-in spots, while I really don't want to deal with drawing hands or the QT/KQ/KJ/AT type crap which just end up roping you in to second best, and where one hand outkicked will eat most of your stack

Or, simply put, since you don't get to play many hands to completion, you really want the ones you do play far to be of the variety where you're already in good shape.

[BeerAndPoker]

Blinds are 800/1600, antes are 200. I have about 52k. Average is about 65k.

MJ opens to 3500 UTG.

Folds to you, you look and see 3s3c in middle position. You consider 3-betting (because MJ folded on the 2nd hand of the day when you did just that, as he seems to open a lot with weak holdings), but don't want to create a big pot with your stack and just 33 in your hand. You decide to set-mine and just flat.

GE is two seats to your left. He looks like he is thinking about what to do, and seems to be considering raising, but just flats. Everyone else folds.

Flop: 7d4d2s

MJ fires 5k.

What do you do?

You can flat preflop but I like a 3 bet more (9 to 9.5k range) because you take the initiative with a hand that is very hard to play post flop. This is going based on MJ opening a lot of hands. If he calls then you can rep so much on the flop betting out like 40% of the pot size on a majority of board textures.

Your tight image can help you by 3 betting and showing strength but not by flatting away where you will be put into so many bad spots.

Keep in mind if someone is opening a lot of hands and able to get away with it they will continue to do so as they should.

If MJ opens a hand on a full table at this level he is risking 3500 to win the blinds/antes (4200) so if he wins around 42% of the time preflop he's already showing a profit by opening a lot.

If he finds other ways to win when 3 bet by 4 betting, flatting some 3 bets, or when called takes the pot down enough with a lot of flop bets of 40% to 50% of the pot then he's showing even more of a profit.

As played now you have no clue where you are in the hand. You can make a big risk and go for it with a check raise or you can fold but flatting isn't good here.

[RegGaymer]

You can flat preflop but I like a 3 bet more (9 to 9.5k range) because you take the initiative with a hand that is very hard to play post flop. This is going based on MJ opening a lot of hands. If he calls then you can rep so much on the flop betting out like 40% of the pot size on a majority of board textures.

Your tight image can help you by 3 betting and showing strength but not by flatting away where you will be put into so many bad spots.

Keep in mind if someone is opening a lot of hands and able to get away with it they will continue to do so as they should.

If MJ opens a hand on a full table at this level he is risking 3500 to win the blinds/antes (4200) so if he wins around 42% of the time preflop he's already showing a profit by opening a lot.

If he finds other ways to win when 3 bet by 4 betting, flatting some 3 bets, or when called takes the pot down enough with a lot of flop bets of 40% to 50% of the pot then he's showing even more of a profit.

As played now you have no clue where you are in the hand. You can make a big risk and go for it with a check raise or you can fold but flatting isn't good here.

3betting an early position raiser from middle position out of a 32bb stack with 33 is pretty bad and definitely a high variance play.

First of all, you've got a load of players behind who can wake up. Secondly, you're risking ~ 20% of your stack to lay an elite mtt player 3/1 which he's likely to at least call with his Ax and suited connector hands - then by the time you cbet you'll have put in almost half your stack, which would be a disastrously bad play to then give up when facing resistance. We don't hold a blocker either, so 33 isn't a hand to normally include in a polar range.

[Dan Druff]

I agree with RegGaymer's analysis on why not to 3-bet, which is exactly why I didn't do it.

I still am convinced that the flatting of 33 there was correct. A lot of you are getting too caught up in this implied odds nonsense, stating that the implied odds aren't there because your opponent will miss too often, and won't give you action.

This is true for cash games, where gaining chips is only important for their monetary value.

In tournaments, there is a huge edge you get by doubling your stack, to where it's worth taking small risks in order to do so, even if the overall implied odds are against you.

Sets in tournaments are very powerful because they are hard to crack. disguise themselves well, and are usually ahead. Provided you're against an aggressive player who will put in a lot of chips and not think too hard about tight folds, you don't want to give up the chance to set mine, unless doing so is downright expensive compared to your stack size.

For example, when I slipped down to 34k, at that point it wasn't worth it to set mine. At 52k, it was. Nobody will convince me otherwise of that.

To me, the big question of this hand is what to do on the low flop where your hand may be best, but could also easily be crushed. I am willing to have an open mind about the correct play there, which is why I posted this thread.

[BeerAndPoker]

You can flat preflop but I like a 3 bet more (9 to 9.5k range) because you take the initiative with a hand that is very hard to play post flop. This is going based on MJ opening a lot of hands. If he calls then you can rep so much on the flop betting out like 40% of the pot size on a majority of board textures.

Your tight image can help you by 3 betting and showing strength but not by flatting away where you will be put into so many bad spots.

Keep in mind if someone is opening a lot of hands and able to get away with it they will continue to do so as they should.

If MJ opens a hand on a full table at this level he is risking 3500 to win the blinds/antes (4200) so if he wins around 42% of the time preflop he's already showing a profit by opening a lot.

If he finds other ways to win when 3 bet by 4 betting, flatting some 3 bets, or when called takes the pot down enough with a lot of flop bets of 40% to 50% of the pot then he's showing even more of a profit.

As played now you have no clue where you are in the hand. You can make a big risk and go for it with a check raise or you can fold but flatting isn't good here.

3betting an early position raiser from middle position out of a 32bb stack with 33 is pretty bad and definitely a high variance play.

First of all, you've got a load of players behind who can wake up. Secondly, you're risking ~ 20% of your stack to lay an elite mtt player 3/1 which he's likely to at least call with his Ax and suited connector hands - then by the time you cbet you'll have put in almost half your stack, which would be a disastrously bad play to then give up when facing resistance. We don't hold a blocker either, so 33 isn't a hand to normally include in a polar range.

I thought Druff was in in a later position when I made this post since I missed the part where he said MP but I still don't hate it in MP versus someone who is opening a lot.

I'm not normally a fan of 3 betting pocket 3s but if I think he is coming in for way too many hands because the table is letting him steal away then I'd rather 3 bet then flat a hand I'm folding on 90% of flops because it shows strength especially if you've been nitty where you the aggro villain is less likely to play back with shit. Why not fold in his shoes to a nitty player when you can just come back a few hands later stealing to get back those chips?

I'd never fold preflop here. The downfall would be if someone did 3 bet but I hate folding because if you do hit that set here you could make over 15x your call which outweighs the times you lose 3500 chips of a 52k stack.

It's really tough for any of us to give the best answer without actually being at the table seeing how the hands have been going down before this.

The flop isn't bad to make a play on since it's very low but it's still a risk since you know nothing from just a preflop flat.

[RegGaymer]

I thought Druff was in in a later position when I made this post since I missed the part where he said MP but I still don't hate it in MP versus someone who is opening a lot.

I'm not normally a fan of 3 betting pocket 3s but if I think he is coming in for way too many hands because the table is letting him steal away then I'd rather 3 bet then flat a hand I'm folding on 90% of flops because it shows strength especially if you've been nitty where you the aggro villain is less likely to play back with shit. Why not fold in his shoes to a nitty player when you can just come back a few hands later stealing to get back those chips?

I'd never fold preflop here. The downfall would be if someone did 3 bet but I hate folding because if you do hit that set here you could make over 15x your call which outweighs the times you lose 3500 chips of a 52k stack.

It's really tough for any of us to give the best answer without actually being at the table seeing how the hands have been going down before this.

The flop isn't bad to make a play on since it's very low but it's still a risk since you know nothing from just a preflop flat.

The implied odds might be there against weaker players who will stack off with one pair hands, but good players will be more likely to get away when they see a guy like Druff making a move post. Also, there's reverse implied odds to consider: the fact that we're even thinking about putting more chips in on the flop means that we're open to losing more, when initially the idea was to call pre and lay it down if we miss our set.

FWIW, if we're on the button, or closing the action in the bb against a single raiser, then playing these small pocket pairs becomes much more viable.

[Dan Druff]

I thought Druff was in in a later position when I made this post since I missed the part where he said MP but I still don't hate it in MP versus someone who is opening a lot.

I'm not normally a fan of 3 betting pocket 3s but if I think he is coming in for way too many hands because the table is letting him steal away then I'd rather 3 bet then flat a hand I'm folding on 90% of flops because it shows strength especially if you've been nitty where you the aggro villain is less likely to play back with shit. Why not fold in his shoes to a nitty player when you can just come back a few hands later stealing to get back those chips?

I'd never fold preflop here. The downfall would be if someone did 3 bet but I hate folding because if you do hit that set here you could make over 15x your call which outweighs the times you lose 3500 chips of a 52k stack.

It's really tough for any of us to give the best answer without actually being at the table seeing how the hands have been going down before this.

The flop isn't bad to make a play on since it's very low but it's still a risk since you know nothing from just a preflop flat.

The implied odds might be there against weaker players who will stack off with one pair hands, but good players will be more likely to get away when they see a guy like Druff making a move post. Also, there's reverse implied odds to consider: the fact that we're even thinking about putting more chips in on the flop means that we're open to losing more, when initially the idea was to call pre and lay it down if we miss our set.

FWIW, if we're on the button, or closing the action in the bb against a single raiser, then playing these small pocket pairs becomes much more viable.

Then perhaps the right move is just to be disciplined and refuse to invest another chip in the pot unless you flop a set or an open-ender. I've thought about that myself, as I have sometimes bled chips away when attempting to set mine, due to not wanting to fold when I think my pocket pair unassisted is possibly best.

You talk of good players being able to make laydowns, but you're forgetting how short MOST players are compared to the blinds at this point. I can't think of many players, for example, who would fold to my 52k stack all in if they have AK on a K93 board. If the board looks drawy, such as having two of one suit, or is something like KT3, then they are especially likely to stack off. We're not talking about trying to set-mine with a huge stack versus another huge stack. (In fact, I am usually reluctant to do that, fearing that I will get in a nightmarish set-over-set situation, and shoot off my entire huge stack in one hand, while not receiving the same level of upside when my set is the best hand.)

Truthfully, most players are going to (correctly) stack off against a 30-ish BB stack if they hold a good top pair or better, and sometimes with even worse if they suspect a move with a draw.

In a slower-moving structure, or at a stage where everyone is deeper, then I'm more inclined to fold the 33 pre. Not here.