Not looking good for Romney.
At the moment Obama leads Ohio by 5 and Florida by 1. If Romney loses either state, he's done.
Obama also leads by 1 in Virginia.
Obama leads by 5 in Nevada, 1 in Iowa, 3 in Colorado, 4 in Michigan, and 4 in New Hampshire.
It is now looking pretty good for Romney in Missouri (+5) and Indiana (+9), but he was expected to take those, anyway.
Romney has also fallen into a tie in North Carolina -- a state he was originally expected to take.
While many of Obama's leads are within the 3% statistical margin of error, it doesn't look good for Republicans that Obama is currently leading
all seven toss-up states, including a 5-point lead in Ohio.
We still have 3 months to go, so a lot can change, but I am not seeing Romney doing a lot to change his image as an out-of-touch rich guy.
Romney could probably win Florida by getting Marco Rubio as his VP candidate, but Rubio wouldn't do a lot to solve the Ohio problem.
I think Romney's only hope lies in two areas:
1) Obama really fucks up big time in some way, and everyone gets really pissed off at him
2) There is another major economic failure (such as the bank crisis in September, 2008) between now and election time, which kills people's faith in Obama to handle the economy
Otherwise Obama is going to win this one, and it won't even be that close.
Looks like the Republicans are about to beat themselves again, just as the Democrats did in both
2000 and 2004 (especially 2004).