Champions league final betting analysis

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

I am a self-confessed Real Madrid fanatic. So much so that I spent around 1600 euro going to the Champions League final two years ago, to see my beloved team equalise at the death and go on to lift the cup 4-1 in extra time. I will die happy.

Well, tomorrow is a rematch of that match...but let me tell you, I have made a lot of money betting against my team in this fixture in the past few seasons, as the value has been too good to pass up. I had money on Atlético draw no bet both times when they won away from home against Real Madrid in the league in past fixtures, and cleaned up when I had them to win to nil @10/1 when they beat them 4-0 last season. They even beat them away from home in the league this season when they were tired from a midweek game, though that time I didn't have money on them.

This Real Madrid team is in the final through tremendous luck of the draw. Atlético Madrid have beaten the two big favourites on the way to the final in Bayern Munich and Barcelona, two unbelievable teams and both far better than Real Madrid this season.

In the last 10 matches between the two bitter rivals, Real Madrid have won just once, with Atlético winning 5; 4 draws. Nevertheless, the line is skewed towards Real Madrid because of their history and popularity worldwide, but Atlético are a far more together, coherent team and with an incredible defence, as well as a phenomenal manager. They have great potential to score from counterattacks and set pieces. Also, Real struggle badly against teams that get behind the ball, or "park the bus", as it is now known.

Friends, do yourselves a favour and have a wager on Atlético Madrid to win, DRAW NO BET, at 11/10. For those more adventurous types, Atlético Madrid to win to nil is 4/1, with a straight Atlético win in 90 minutes being 11/5 in some bookies. This will be a close game, but I fully expect Atletico to show their superiority tomorrow. GL

[Lord of the Fraud]

11/5 is strong.

Doubt Simeone has slept a wink since the last final. His final whistle tilt was fantastic.

By far the best drilled team in European football. But keeping a clean sheet against that lot again this season? I'd want slightly more than 4's I think.

Regardless of result I love your DNB value and outright. win.

[unchainedghost]

Absolutely on this

[Shizzmoney]

I actually like the under at 2 (+105). I think these two teams kick each other instead of the ball for 90+ minutes....then things open up in the ET, especially if these teams get the eventual red card. I feel bad for the referee (Clattenburg) who will have to deal with these guys bitching for 90+ minutes.

I fancy Atletico as well as they'll try to pack it in and counter off of Real's opportunities. They've been the most consistent team in football in the last 2 months besides Leicester and Griezmann is a beast.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Draw no bet and win to nil have been my preferred bets on these games, there is a decent chance of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw but just can't see Real winning in 90 minutes unless Atlético get a red card or give away a bizarre penalty.

Further to the notes above I may add that Rafael Varane is out of this match for Real, and Ronaldo had a slight knock in training this week. Gareth Bale is the danger but it's hard as nails to break down this Atlético team. They have had 15/21 clean sheets in the champions league this season, and something like 35 overall. I don't think lightening will strike twice.

As an interesting sidenote, in 2014 I had a grand on Atlético draw no bet to cover myself for going to Lisbon and I had fancied them also- I was 2 mins away from collecting but obviously the draw and Real winning in extra time was the perfect outcome

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Wasn't far off...can't believe Real won the cointoss! Actually nearly feel sorry for them lol