Thread: Time to get on the TRUMP train

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    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    Don’t confuse China holding only 4% of US Treasuries as being equal to only *currently* buying 4% of new issues, as the extant outstanding federal debt held by non-government entities is many times more than our annual current deficits.

    Instead, look at the ratio of the US’ trade deficit with China to its total annual federal deficit plus rollover of existing debt, as the former reflects the pool of dollar holdings the Chinese can readily invest in new issues of US Treasuries, while the latter reflects the total annual sales of Treasuries.

    The US trade deficit with China was $419 billion in 2018, while the federal budget deficit in 2019 is estimated to be about $1.3 trillion. The total outstanding federal debt is about $20 trillion, with an average maturity of probably about 10 years, meaning about $2 trillion would need to be rolled over annually over absent the need of additional borrowings. That would mean the Treasury would need to sell about $3.3 trillion in 2019 for rollover and deficit coverage.

    Assuming China invests its entire US trade deficit in US treasuries, China would be expected to buy about 13% of US Treasuries in 2019. Suddenly holding those funds back from the Treasury auctions would definitely cause a spike in US Treasuries rates, spook the stock market, and likely trigger the start of recession without the Fed stepping in to replace China as a buyer in that market.

    Well thought out Mubles and everything here is true. But the point is others will step in Fed or no. The whole thing doesn’t come crashing down for the US, which was the original point.
    To get others to step in would require the Treasury to offer higher effective rates to buyers, especially if China did a one-two punch of also moving the money out of the US dollar.
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

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    Platinum devidee's Avatar
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    New Zealanders are receiving home visits from police to check on their political views, with one individual claiming that authorities asked him if he supported Donald Trump.

    https://summit.news/2019/05/13/new-z...itical-police/



    You have to hand it to the Mossad. Their mass shooting operations really do get results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devidee View Post
    New Zealanders are receiving home visits from police to check on their political views, with one individual claiming that authorities asked him if he supported Donald Trump.

    https://summit.news/2019/05/13/new-z...itical-police/



    You have to hand it to the Mossad. Their mass shooting operations really do get results.
    Why would the Mossad want to engender sympathy and tolerance for the Muslim population? And have their main man Trump become a swear word in New Zealand? I’m just curious how this benefits the Jooz in this theory?

     
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      ErickAA: I hope your expectations weren't too high as far as getting a cogent answer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by devidee View Post
    New Zealanders are receiving home visits from police to check on their political views, with one individual claiming that authorities asked him if he supported Donald Trump.

    https://summit.news/2019/05/13/new-z...itical-police/



    You have to hand it to the Mossad. Their mass shooting operations really do get results.
    Why would the Mossad want to engender sympathy and tolerance for the Muslim population? And have their main man Trump become a swear word in New Zealand? I’m just curious how this benefits the Jooz in this theory?

    The illusion of christian - muslim conflict is a benefit.

    Disarming non-joos of guns and free thought is a benefit.


    I mean, one day the German people just decided to vote in the Nazis.



    (((one day LULZZZZZ)))

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    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Global equity markets spooked by China’s response to Trump’s renewed trade war shots.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/bus...s-60b-n1004881

    Paging PFA’s resident market trading guru (Sanlmar): Is this a buying opportunity? Or will the knife fall even farther?
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post


    Well thought out Mubles and everything here is true. But the point is others will step in Fed or no. The whole thing doesn’t come crashing down for the US, which was the original point.
    To get others to step in would require the Treasury to offer higher effective rates to buyers, especially if China did a one-two punch of also moving the money out of the US dollar.
    And everyone would flee to safety which is, aught and will be for the next x amount of years the economy which is backed by the biggest military, best (pound for pound) infrastructure, intellectual property, medical advancement and despite what ya heard stability on the 5th rock from the sun.

    Again to my original point mumbles..... it’s not to say we don’t all lose in a trade war..... but it will be worse for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    To get others to step in would require the Treasury to offer higher effective rates to buyers, especially if China did a one-two punch of also moving the money out of the US dollar.
    And everyone would flee to safety which is, aught and will be for the next x amount of years the economy which is backed by the biggest military, best (pound for pound) infrastructure, intellectual property, medical advancement and despite what ya heard stability on the 5th rock from the sun.

    Again to my original point mumbles..... it’s not to say we don’t all lose in a trade war..... but it will be worse for them.
    Our political system is more sensitive to changes in the strength of the economy. We have elections every few years. China’s current president was made president-for-life, and has consolidated power quite nicely over the psst few years. And because China is still a lower cost producer for so many products, it can more easily find other markets for its export goods if access to the US market is stifled by higher tariffs. As such, China has a better negotiating power than the US in a trade dispute.
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

  8. #35288
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    congratulations "muh Russia" donkeys, ppl will pay for making u look like complete stooges



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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    congratulations "muh Russia" donkeys, ppl will pay for making u look like complete stooges



    exactly no one gives a shit about this beyond people personally invested in barr's career.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    congratulations "muh Russia" donkeys, ppl will pay for making u look like complete stooges



    exactly no one gives a shit about this beyond people personally invested in barr's career.

    "we're onto our next scam, do you think we ever stop complaining?!?!?!" TOUCHE

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    Diamond blake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    And everyone would flee to safety which is, aught and will be for the next x amount of years the economy which is backed by the biggest military, best (pound for pound) infrastructure, intellectual property, medical advancement and despite what ya heard stability on the 5th rock from the sun.

    Again to my original point mumbles..... it’s not to say we don’t all lose in a trade war..... but it will be worse for them.
    Our political system is more sensitive to changes in the strength of the economy. We have elections every few years. China’s current president was made president-for-life, and has consolidated power quite nicely over the psst few years. And because China is still a lower cost producer for so many products, it can more easily find other markets for its export goods if access to the US market is stifled by higher tariffs. As such, China has a better negotiating power than the US in a trade dispute.
    except china can't replace the US with other markets. if it could, it already would have. even exports to the EU from china are down. there's no demand. chinese workers are already living in poverty. it's not like they can cut prices without risking widespread unrest.

    your point re their political system is correct, however, which is what they are banking on.

    don't underestimate people's fear though. blaming the chinese for all of our problems could catch on and become a bipartisan issue, fairly or not.

    this is especially true if biden is the nominee. can't wait to hear joe explain why the chinese government invested $1.5 billion in hunter biden's biden's private equity firm two weeks after both joe and hunter flew air force 2 to china. i'm sure they were sightseeing.

     
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      MumblesBadly: China does have some beautiful scenery!

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    blaming the chinese for all of our problems could catch on and become a bipartisan issue, fairly or not.

    chinese APTs doing IP theft is extremely hot right now in the streets, so you know. the FBI has been ringing the bell about it for at least 7 years and it goes nowhere because its not as sexy as blaming immigrants for crime etc, but its costing us trillions of dollars and directly led to pretty much every chinese asset in the CIAs networks there to go dark at the same time.

    basically china is beating our asses like a drum.

     
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      blake: yep
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    Our political system is more sensitive to changes in the strength of the economy. We have elections every few years. China’s current president was made president-for-life, and has consolidated power quite nicely over the psst few years. And because China is still a lower cost producer for so many products, it can more easily find other markets for its export goods if access to the US market is stifled by higher tariffs. As such, China has a better negotiating power than the US in a trade dispute.
    except china can't replace the US with other markets. if it could, it already would have. even exports to the EU from china are down. there's no demand. chinese workers are already living in poverty. it's not like they can cut prices without risking widespread unrest.
    You still seem fairly confused what Chinese exports are. Bout 95% of those are split in to 2 camps. Branded American/multinational products and components for American/multinational companies. The taxes are transferred fully to the price of the end product and are always payed by the American consumers. You don't have any products to replace those. There is no domestic production that now becomes competitive. This has no effect to Chinese workers. China isn't losing the market nor did it ever have it in the first place. US is selling US products to US customers that made partly or in whole in China.

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    Diamond TheXFactor's Avatar
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    What if China bans all US imports?

    And if that happens...

    What if Trump bans all Chinese imports?

    Recession triggered.

    It would be Donald Trump's greatest accomplishment.


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    Couldn't the little china men in Vietnam do the same thing the little china men do in China?

    I imagine their 8 year olds can sew just as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post

    except china can't replace the US with other markets. if it could, it already would have. even exports to the EU from china are down. there's no demand. chinese workers are already living in poverty. it's not like they can cut prices without risking widespread unrest.
    You still seem fairly confused what Chinese exports are. Bout 95% of those are split in to 2 camps. Branded American/multinational products and components for American/multinational companies. The taxes are transferred fully to the price of the end product and are always payed by the American consumers. You don't have any products to replace those. There is no domestic production that now becomes competitive. This has no effect to Chinese workers. China isn't losing the market nor did it ever have it in the first place. US is selling US products to US customers that made partly or in whole in China.
    But even if we assume that is true, why would there would be no effect to chinese workers and companies if american consumers no longer buy those products, be those products made by american companies or for american companies or not? if the chinese workers are no longer working/selling, and thus not getting paid, why would that not hurt them?

    I would be curious as to how many american companies actually own manufacturing plants in china, as opposed to contract with chinese companies to manufacture goods for american companies, though, if you have any details on that.

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    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devidee View Post
    Couldn't the little china men in Vietnam do the same thing the little china men do in China?

    I imagine their 8 year olds can sew just as well.
    Actually, Vietnam does now have lower labor costs than China, but it doesn’t have the depth of engineering skills that China has developed over the past few decades because the “communists” in China wisened up to the value of entrepreneural capitalism at least a decade before the “communists” in Vietnam did so.

     
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      devidee: I'm sure it could be beaten into them in short order.
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    You still seem fairly confused what Chinese exports are. Bout 95% of those are split in to 2 camps. Branded American/multinational products and components for American/multinational companies. The taxes are transferred fully to the price of the end product and are always payed by the American consumers. You don't have any products to replace those. There is no domestic production that now becomes competitive. This has no effect to Chinese workers. China isn't losing the market nor did it ever have it in the first place. US is selling US products to US customers that made partly or in whole in China.
    But even if we assume that is true, why would there would be no effect to chinese workers and companies if american consumers no longer buy those products, be those products made by american companies or for american companies or not? if the chinese workers are no longer working/selling, and thus not getting paid, why would that not hurt them?

    I would be curious as to how many american companies actually own manufacturing plants in china, as opposed to contract with chinese companies to manufacture goods for american companies, though, if you have any details on that.
    They rarely own the companies that are doing the manufacturing. It wasn't cost effective. And part of the reason why they can't be replaced is the reason mumbles gave above. China has moved to "advanced sweatshops" in the last 20 years. Whatever could be moved to Vietnam for the most part already is there. This round of tariffs is also not even close to making it cost effective to produce in US instead of China. The competing products either don't truly exist or they are other branded products that are made in China.

    You are correct that Chinese workers would be effected if American consumers stopped buying, but these tariffs aren't enough to cause that. People aren't buying androids if Iphone costs a dollar more. They don't stop using aluminum cans because the soda costs a cent more. On the other hand in China they will stop buying Ford if the price goes up 10 percent, Tesla will move production to China and US farmers are very replaceable.

    With "Chinese" products what is on US soil is marketing, head offices and retail outlets. For components assembly is also there sometimes. As a result the Chinese part of the retail price is almost never more than a fifth even if it's 100% Chinese made.

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    The basic theory of tariffs is that they enable domestic production to be more competitive. You don't have domestic production, because you moved it to China. Those who kept their production in the US are already out of business or they differentiated their product with quality/price/marketing and as a result are no longer competing products to Chinese.

     
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      MumblesBadly: :this

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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    The basic theory of tariffs is that they enable domestic production to be more competitive. You don't have domestic production, because you moved it to China. Those who kept their production in the US are already out of business or they differentiated their product with quality/price/marketing and as a result are no longer competing products to Chinese.
    but even if the US doesn't "have domestic production", which it does, this is because chinese products cost less so american companies couldn't compete.

    if american products are cheaper than chinese products (due to tariffs), people would buy them.

    if you are saying that americans just can't or won't manufacture things anymore for some reason, even if they would make a profit doing so, yeah we'll just disagree

    that being said, i don't want to give the impression that i think tariffs are a realistic way of boosting US manufacturing cause i don't for the reasons i already stated (i.e., prices going up, stock market crash, politics, etc.) i'm terrible at predicting though so who knows. the NYTimes already has an article out today about how US tariffs on china may be the new normal.

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