Originally Posted by
verminaard
I was only in my 20s and wasn't following politics especially closely at that time, but my understanding was Clinton got in trouble for perjury for lying about his affairs under oath while he was being sued for sexual harassment (I actually had to look this up, I didn't remember what he was being sued for that led to him lying about his affairs). My understanding is that if he didn't lie about the affairs he wouldn't have been in any impeachment trouble at all.
Correct, he seduced a 21 year old intern and lied about it under oath, there were some other lies (and perhaps murders) but you have the gist of it.
Impeachment is only one prong of the equation, that is a simple majority of the House. In the Senate, you have to go through a formal trial chaired by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. You then need 67 Senators to vote yes. In Clinton, despite what HongKonger is making up, it never got to a trial because they were so far away from 67 votes it was not even practical. It just died on arrival.
Impeachment is a total political process. In order for Clinton to have been found guilty in a trial, his entire Democrat base would have had to abandon him, which they did not, so the House vote was a huge waste of time. Nixon was going to trial and would have been convicted because the Republicans walked away from him, so he resigned because he knew the outcome.
With Trump, he will never go to trial because the Republicans will either have a large majority in the Senate in 2018, or maybe only have 49 R Senators. Most likely the Senate will have 53-55 R Senators in 2018 and lose the House. Let's say the Senate goes Democratic by 1 vote, worst case scenario is 49 R Senators. That means you would need 18 to flip and that is not going to happen, Trump is still wildly popular with the Republican base. The only scenario is some personal crisis unfolds for Trump and the economy tanks, then any President is open for removal under that scenario.