Thread: Time to get on the TRUMP train

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    The basic theory of tariffs is that they enable domestic production to be more competitive. You don't have domestic production, because you moved it to China. Those who kept their production in the US are already out of business or they differentiated their product with quality/price/marketing and as a result are no longer competing products to Chinese.
    but even if the US doesn't "have domestic production", which it does, this is because chinese products cost less so american companies couldn't compete.

    if american products are cheaper than chinese products (due to tariffs), people would buy them.

    if you are saying that americans just can't or won't manufacture things anymore for some reason, even if they would make a profit doing so, yeah we'll just disagree

    that being said, i don't want to give the impression that i think tariffs are a realistic way of boosting US manufacturing cause i don't for the reasons i already stated (i.e., prices going up, stock market crash, politics, etc.) i'm terrible at predicting though so who knows. the NYTimes already has an article out today about how US tariffs on china may be the new normal.
    Large majority of your production is automated. Everything you could move overseas you moved overseas. There's a lot of products where it would cost 2-10 times as much to produce in US than have it shipped in. 25% bump in production cost is nothing in that scale.

    Traditional theory of tariffs is basically doing work when domestic product costs a 100 while imported cost 90. When you slap a 25% tariff there the consumer will now gravitate towards domestic. Here domestic products either don't exist anymore or they cost 500. As such the consumer still buys the imported product, it just costs more now.

    Because bulk of this is branded products there's a layer of marketing that also protects the products from price increases. They have differentiated themselves from their base category, so they have very little competition left. Nike's aren't shoes anymore, they are Nike's. This is even more true of Apple. Both of those are in the 300b that's left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post

    but even if the US doesn't "have domestic production", which it does, this is because chinese products cost less so american companies couldn't compete.

    if american products are cheaper than chinese products (due to tariffs), people would buy them.

    if you are saying that americans just can't or won't manufacture things anymore for some reason, even if they would make a profit doing so, yeah we'll just disagree

    that being said, i don't want to give the impression that i think tariffs are a realistic way of boosting US manufacturing cause i don't for the reasons i already stated (i.e., prices going up, stock market crash, politics, etc.) i'm terrible at predicting though so who knows. the NYTimes already has an article out today about how US tariffs on china may be the new normal.
    Large majority of your production is automated. Everything you could move overseas you moved overseas. There's a lot of products where it would cost 2-10 times as much to produce in US than have it shipped in. 25% bump in production cost is nothing in that scale.

    Traditional theory of tariffs is basically doing work when domestic product costs a 100 while imported cost 90. When you slap a 25% tariff there the consumer will now gravitate towards domestic. Here domestic products either don't exist anymore or they cost 500. As such the consumer still buys the imported product, it just costs more now.

    Because bulk of this is branded products there's a layer of marketing that also protects the products from price increases. They have differentiated themselves from their base category, so they have very little competition left. Nike's aren't shoes anymore, they are Nike's. This is even more true of Apple. Both of those are in the 300b that's left.
    i'm not an expert on the subject, but everything i'm reading suggests that the american manufacturing position versus the chinese isn't quite as dire.

    trump always touts how jobs are coming back to the US, and after doing a little digging, it looks like he's correct. american manufacturing has actually surged in the past decade (obv including time under obama). https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimvino.../#3d8fb3a57589

    not only that, but people think america is already winning the trade war with china. what's worse for democrats is that some economists think this is directly tied to trump.

    China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way "If you need any evidence how the trade spat is impacting a country’s economic health then look no further than China trade. The lower export number means lower jobs, which means another direct impact on the (Chinese) economy. Donald Trump can be pleased. His policies have brought China to its knees.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#1dcf958e7f03

    damn. (this article notes that the one advantage china has which is what i've been saying -- it's a communist government that can potentially outlast fickle american voters.)

    even the costs of doing business in china have gone up, especially property costs. combined with increased shipping costs, some companies have already determined that they save money by manufacturing in the US. this helps explain why chinese exports to the US fell 3.7%, which is the first time that happened (non seasonally) since 2016. "Contrary to widespread belief, China isn’t the cheap place to manufacture that it once was, and rising costs have been forcing manufacturers to explore new countries to make their goods."

    even the chinese, themselves, have begun opening manufacturing plants in the US as it's cheaper to do so than in china.

    Chinese manufacturers are setting up shop in the U.S. https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/30/tec...ica/index.html

    in fairness, that article notes, like you said, that certain labor-intensive industries are not likely to come to the US. and even that american workers don't have those same skills anymore, which supports one of your main points.

    i don't know. i still question whether tariffs are viable (or even necessary considering these articles), but we'll have to see.

    sidenote -- i swear to god in the AOC thread i said that tariffs don't work so i'm clearly talking out of my ass and am likely to change my opinion tomorrow. classic blake.

     
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      sonatine: blaaaaaaaaaake

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    Let the caving begin

    Iowa Farmers Who Voted for Trump Tell CNN They’re Fed Up With Trade War: ‘I’ll Never Vote for Him Again’

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/iowa-far...for-him-again/

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Let round 2 of the free $ payouts begin

    Iowa Farmers Who Voted for Trump Tell CNN They’re Fed Up With Trade War: ‘I’ll Never Vote for Him Again’

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/iowa-far...for-him-again/

    FYP

     
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      blake: also correct

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Large majority of your production is automated. Everything you could move overseas you moved overseas. There's a lot of products where it would cost 2-10 times as much to produce in US than have it shipped in. 25% bump in production cost is nothing in that scale.

    Traditional theory of tariffs is basically doing work when domestic product costs a 100 while imported cost 90. When you slap a 25% tariff there the consumer will now gravitate towards domestic. Here domestic products either don't exist anymore or they cost 500. As such the consumer still buys the imported product, it just costs more now.

    Because bulk of this is branded products there's a layer of marketing that also protects the products from price increases. They have differentiated themselves from their base category, so they have very little competition left. Nike's aren't shoes anymore, they are Nike's. This is even more true of Apple. Both of those are in the 300b that's left.
    i'm not an expert on the subject, but everything i'm reading suggests that the american manufacturing position versus the chinese isn't quite as dire.

    trump always touts how jobs are coming back to the US, and after doing a little digging, it looks like he's correct. american manufacturing has actually surged in the past decade (obv including time under obama). https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimvino.../#3d8fb3a57589

    not only that, but people think america is already winning the trade war with china. what's worse for democrats is that some economists think this is directly tied to trump.

    China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way "If you need any evidence how the trade spat is impacting a country’s economic health then look no further than China trade. The lower export number means lower jobs, which means another direct impact on the (Chinese) economy. Donald Trump can be pleased. His policies have brought China to its knees.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#1dcf958e7f03

    damn. (this article notes that the one advantage china has which is what i've been saying -- it's a communist government that can potentially outlast fickle american voters.)

    even the costs of doing business in china have gone up, especially property costs. combined with increased shipping costs, some companies have already determined that they save money by manufacturing in the US. this helps explain why chinese exports to the US fell 3.7%, which is the first time that happened (non seasonally) since 2016. "Contrary to widespread belief, China isn’t the cheap place to manufacture that it once was, and rising costs have been forcing manufacturers to explore new countries to make their goods."

    even the chinese, themselves, have begun opening manufacturing plants in the US as it's cheaper to do so than in china.

    Chinese manufacturers are setting up shop in the U.S. https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/30/tec...ica/index.html

    in fairness, that article notes, like you said, that certain labor-intensive industries are not likely to come to the US. and even that american workers don't have those same skills anymore, which supports one of your main points.

    i don't know. i still question whether tariffs are viable (or even necessary considering these articles), but we'll have to see.

    sidenote -- i swear to god in the AOC thread i said that tariffs don't work so i'm clearly talking out of my ass and am likely to change my opinion tomorrow. classic blake.
    The Chinese manufacturing story about US plants is from 2016 and was propped up by incentives. But it's true they also sometimes invest in production now. It still has fairly little to do with tariffs.

    And the dip to export numbers is mostly about this...

    "That would indicate an end to the pre-tariff purchasing rush by U.S. companies in the third quarter and into the fourth. Exports to the U.S. had previously climbed over 12% for three consecutive months."

    ...US companies hoarded Chinese products before tariffs hit. Also for a war Trump is winning it's an interesting strategy to plummet your own stock market few months later.

    Fun snippets from that same article...

    "China exports account for only 14% of the industrial sector’s revenues"

    ...and 20% of that is almost full 3%. In other words China is big. They could lose the entire US market and it would only dent their economy. And then...

    "China exports more goods to Vietnam than any other country in Southeast Asia", "Chinese manufacturers are shifting some of their supply chains to southeast Asia"

    ...i figured this was happening. Don't know too much about it since it's a resent trend. TPP was built as a counter balance to China and i guess after US bailed China took the remains and re-purposed it for their own needs.

     
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      blake: i have been swayed that tariffs are an awful idea.
      
      MumblesBadly: Ditching TPP was popular but doing so may come back to bite the US.

  6. #35306
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    look i'm clearly just copying and pasting from articles i find on google at this point, so i don't know how much more i can say on this.

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    i don't know anything about tariffs, economics or math is what i'm trying to say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    i don't know anything about tariffs, economics or math is what i'm trying to say.

    but i think you know as much as anyone what a trillion dollars is and why its bad that trump just wiped it off the dow.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    And Alabama steps in and lays ruin to his re-election chances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    i don't know anything about tariffs, economics or math is what i'm trying to say.

    but i think you know as much as anyone what a trillion dollars is and why its bad that trump just wiped it off the dow.
    i'm officially back to being anti-tariff. tanking the economy seems like a bad idea. i'm also really not loving the fact that prices will rise on literally everything we buy, which is essentially a massive paycut delivered to the whole country. but again, i'm not an economist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    And Alabama steps in and lays ruin to his re-election chances.
    you know, i thought abortion would have played a role back in 2016 considering scalia had just died and the possibility of roe v. wade being overturned came closer to reality, but hillary almost never mentioned it. in fact, it was trump that talked it up.

    i can only guess that the dems have done polling that shows this issue doesn't help them in swing states. or hillary was an awful politician, which is also possible.

     
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      MumblesBadly: Abortion DID play a role in 2016. That’s a big reason why Mitch McConnell wouldn’t allow the Senate to even have a hearing on Garland.

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    Name:  60348667_10156867347866677_6001321901069172736_n.jpg
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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Woman charged with murder for fatally pushing elderly man from Las Vegas bus

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/woman-alle...ry?id=63051109

    No mention of race in this story. I wonder why.

    LULZ


    (((we know why)))

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
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    oh cool a 7 year old trump tweet. thats some A level digging atine. shall I link up all the tweets that said trump was gonna put gays and trannies into concentration camps? how'd that turn out?

     
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      devidee: 2nd term goals (((and it's ovens btw)))
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread

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    Muh Russia donkeys look dumber every day. Now we need some American trolls to get caught

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    Look goy!

    It's Batwoman!!

    She's gay! She's in an inter-racial relationship! She's a feminist!!!





    There's no cultural agenda here, goy!!! Just watch and enjoy!!!
    Last edited by devidee; 05-16-2019 at 11:39 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
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    oh cool a 7 year old trump tweet. thats some A level digging atine. shall I link up all the tweets that said trump was gonna put gays and trannies into concentration camps? how'd that turn out?
    Why so sensitive?

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    Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps View Post


    oh cool a 7 year old trump tweet. thats some A level digging atine. shall I link up all the tweets that said trump was gonna put gays and trannies into concentration camps? how'd that turn out?
    Why so sensitive?

    he's in his feelings because he cant afford bags of milk for his off-brand cereal.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  19. #35319
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    bombs not dropped by plane (Syrian govt) but placed(terrorists)


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    Apparently, Asian students don't face the "adversity" of slang'n rock and pimp'n hoes.



    Only in Trump's America.

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