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Thread: Time to get on the TRUMP train

  1. #35901
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post


    No disagreement whatsoever. But “this time it’s different” because the cycle was propelled forward by $1T of deficit spending per year and a recent change to Tax policy.

    Going to be interesting to see if this is a one year recession thing or the start of a true plunge. If you really stop and think about it we really haven’t had a normal recession in over 25 years (i count dot com downturn as an “event”)

    do you think the housing market implosion was kind of a tectonic release that put off The Big One a bit longer?
    Ray Dalio founded one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Assoc

    He booked his billion and retired to philanthropy. Similar to Buffet, he seems hell bent on teaching economic theory. I like his simple style.

    Daly referenced cycles in his post. I stumbled on this Dalio video recently. It is so simple & elegant. No tin foil. The economy is fun enough.

    It’s 30 minutes but you will consider it again and again for the rest of your life. Allow him to ramp up for 5-10 min

    You will find your own answer


     
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      sonatine: watching, thank you

  2. #35902
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    do you think the housing market implosion was kind of a tectonic release that put off The Big One a bit longer?
    Ray Dalio founded one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Assoc

    He booked his billion and retired to philanthropy. Similar to Buffet, he seems hell bent on teaching economic theory. I like his simple style.

    Daly referenced cycles in his post. I stumbled on this Dalio video recently. It is so simple & elegant. No tin foil. The economy is fun enough.

    It’s 30 minutes but you will consider it again and again for the rest of your life. Allow him to ramp up for 5-10 min

    You will find your own answer

    I don't buy it....I mean I'm sure it's all legit mathematically but when creditors......4:30 mark are de-regulated
    and allowed to rip-off the buyer via stock market influences, the whole thing becomes a sham

    the buck should stop everywhere and this is not what is happening

    There are only so many ways you could or should become super wealthy.
    You're either a genius or you have a pass on ripping people off.

     
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      Sanlmar: Give it til 8:00 Cycles. That’s the fun stuff
    Last edited by limitles; 08-14-2019 at 04:52 PM.


  3. #35903
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Ray Dalio founded one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Assoc

    He booked his billion and retired to philanthropy. Similar to Buffet, he seems hell bent on teaching economic theory. I like his simple style.

    Daly referenced cycles in his post. I stumbled on this Dalio video recently. It is so simple & elegant. No tin foil. The economy is fun enough.

    It’s 30 minutes but you will consider it again and again for the rest of your life. Allow him to ramp up for 5-10 min

    You will find your own answer

    I don't buy it....I mean I'm sure it's all legit mathematically but when creditors......4:30 mark are de-regulated
    and allowed to rip-off the buyer via stock market influences, the whole thing becomes a sham

    the buck should stop everywhere and this is not what is happening

    There are only so many ways you could or should become super wealthy.
    You're either a genius or you have a pass on ripping people off.
    Sanman I have a very short attention span (really?) So at the 8:00 mark I'm told that economic cycles are due
    to human nature. Let's just examine that for a second.....of course everything is cyclical but cycles can interrupted.
    Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words

    I'm no scholar but I just ripped that video a new one.



    Knowing all I know I think I would trade places with John Daly

    btw...way too much weight on the right side at that point
    Last edited by limitles; 08-14-2019 at 05:31 PM.


  4. #35904
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post

    I don't buy it....I mean I'm sure it's all legit mathematically but when creditors......4:30 mark are de-regulated
    and allowed to rip-off the buyer via stock market influences, the whole thing becomes a sham

    the buck should stop everywhere and this is not what is happening

    There are only so many ways you could or should become super wealthy.
    You're either a genius or you have a pass on ripping people off.
    Sanman I have a very short attention span (really?) So at the 8:00 mark I'm told that economic cycles are due
    to human nature. Let's just examine that for a second.....of course everything is cyclical but cycles can interrupted.
    Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words

    I'm no scholar but I just ripped that video a new one.



    Knowing all I know I think I would trade places with John Daly

    btw...way too much weight on the right side at that point
    Fucking ridicolous......I mean are ignoring historic facts? Are you too in love with
    your money machine to respond? It's been a half an hour and it shouldn't take
    more than a minute to rebut my argument.

    You have three minutes

    wait a fucking second


    you just said this

    Don’t drink too much and don’t accept too much credit. The public bought shit they never should have.

    You are a piece of shit if you accept the second point in your little waste of time

    People were given a chance to own a part of the American dream when it was simply a farce. And those innocent bastards got to watch the bank bail-outs of the friendly lenders from their precious government


    You are a joke if you believe anything you've written

    Never again talking to such lying piece of crap

    Of course no one is guilty. It's just human nature.
    Do not present that to me. Wait, wait wait, it is the
    unsuspecting public that is to blame. They have some
    real money making schemes behind their actions don't they?

    Are you ignorant? You don't think anyone is aware?

    Aight. post restricted I can only bump my own posts....
    so I vow to bring this topic to a head........I will bring evidence against your pathetic take that's it.




    Last edited by limitles; 08-14-2019 at 06:29 PM.


  5. #35905
    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post
    Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words
    There were way too much assets floating around the world. Including your pension fund. It needed to earn “interest”. Money managers were desperate for returns.

    The creation of mortgage backed securities at Solomon Brothers was captured exquisitely by Michael Lewis in Liars Poker He was 27 and didn’t know the importance of what he witnessed.

    This cool new toy satisfied the need for returns AND provided credit for homeowners. Home ownership is a fundamental value in the US and is promoted by all. I won’t get into why people owning a home is a good thing.

    No harm is caused. It’s all good.

    EXCEPT. Financial institutions measured their assets (the mortgage backed securities) on a risk weighted basis.

    Our rules, they said, state we can only accept so much risk. But looking back we see that defaults are occurring at a far smaller rate than we had figured. You know what? We can accept more risk. So on and so on.

    People don’t default when asset prices (your house) is rising in value. Maybe you get a second mortgage or refinance. People endlessly refinanced their rate. They could get refinanced cause their house was worth more.

    Don’t drink too much and don’t accept too much credit. The public bought shit they never should have.

    Mortgage brokers were sleazy salesmen. Bartenders keep serving.

    The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople.

    The financial institutions were stupid because their analysis of their asset’s risk was backward looking & flawed. They accepted too much risk and consequently were too steeply leveraged.

    If there was regulation the regulators weren’t gonna say shit cause their future employer was that financial institution. (Just like your Congressman.but I digress).

    When asset prices fell cause every breathing US citizen had already bought a home - the whole house of cards collapsed.

    There were many other wonderful details but this is how I remember that episode.

    TOO MUCH CREDIT AND IT GOT DELEVERAGED.

    there is always a new twist in every cycle There is always something new.


    I know Limitles is just making conversation but I wanted to see if I could riff the housing crisis

     
    Comments
      
      sonatine: solid riff
      
      Tellafriend:
      
      gimmick:
      
      limitles: If you reallly read this trollop only one colour need apply

  6. #35906
    Interestingly Canadians didn’t get fucked by the crisis and I forget why

  7. #35907
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    is this a good time to bring up that apple are ramping up sub prime credit card offers?
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  8. #35908
    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post
    Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words
    Mortgage brokers were sleazy salesmen. Bartenders keep serving.

    The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople.
    You run your mouth awful reckless.

    Aside from this outrageous pejorative your overall summary is spot on.

    I reread Liar's Poker recently as well as The Big Short. Amazing how they tie together a 20 year arc.

     
    Comments
      
      limitles: what a gutless response you're not in this business are you?
      
      Sanlmar: Set Tony free. I think he wants to confess to something

  9. #35909
    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Mortgage brokers were sleazy salesmen. Bartenders keep serving.

    The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople.
    You run your mouth awful reckless.

    Aside from this outrageous pejorative your overall summary is spot on.

    I reread Liar's Poker recently as well as The Big Short. Amazing how they tie together a 20 year arc.
    Were you a mortgage broker? There were stories of bartenders who were made mortgage brokers and lived lavish and large.

    They and their kind were young and inexperienced and thought perpetual motion had been invented.

    They were just hustling. In fact, the buyers of mortgages were desperate for product. They’d call the broker begging for new paper that they would in turn package up and resell to your insurance company or whatever.

    The brokers needed to find new borrowers to keep their customers happy and pay for bottle service that night.

    Their Lambo got 9mpg

    Salesmen sold.

    The arc of Liars Poker 1987 & The Big Short is amazing and just the biggest exercise in coincidence and chance.

    What interests me recently is that Michael Lewis is canoodling with his new gal pal Elizabeth Warren and it is making me uncomfortable But I’m listening.

  10. #35910
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post

    You run your mouth awful reckless.

    Aside from this outrageous pejorative your overall summary is spot on.

    I reread Liar's Poker recently as well as The Big Short. Amazing how they tie together a 20 year arc.
    Were you a mortgage broker? There were stories of bartenders who were made mortgage brokers and lived lavish and large.



    They and their kind were young and inexperienced and thought perpetual motion had been invented.

    They were just hustling. In fact, the buyers of mortgages were desperate for product. They’d call the broker begging for new paper that they would in turn package up and resell to your insurance company or whatever.

    The brokers needed to find new borrowers to keep their customers happy and pay for bottle service that night.

    Their Lambo got 9mpg

    Salesmen sold.

    The arc of Liars Poker 1987 & The Big Short is amazing and just the biggest exercise in coincidence and chance.

    What interests me recently is that Micharl Lewis is canoodling with his new gal pal Elizabeth Warren and it is making me uncomfortable But I’m listening.
    Dude I think Tony was agreeing with you....just wait until I have a few days to research the topic.
    I know you're dead but I will bring proof.

    The one big tell for almost everyone are the ad hominem attacks......he did it subtlely but still


  11. #35911
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by limitles View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Were you a mortgage broker? There were stories of bartenders who were made mortgage brokers and lived lavish and large.



    They and their kind were young and inexperienced and thought perpetual motion had been invented.

    They were just hustling. In fact, the buyers of mortgages were desperate for product. They’d call the broker begging for new paper that they would in turn package up and resell to your insurance company or whatever.

    The brokers needed to find new borrowers to keep their customers happy and pay for bottle service that night.

    Their Lambo got 9mpg

    Salesmen sold.

    The arc of Liars Poker 1987 & The Big Short is amazing and just the biggest exercise in coincidence and chance.

    What interests me recently is that Micharl Lewis is canoodling with his new gal pal Elizabeth Warren and it is making me uncomfortable But I’m listening.
    Dude I think Tony was agreeing with you....just wait until I have a few days to research the topic.
    I know you're dead but I will bring proof.

    The one big tell for almost everyone are the ad hominem attacks......he did it subtlely but still
    It never get's old. When people are called out they lose their shit. Sad but true. And I love to
    see creeps squirm, if that is a word? This is not a joke to me. I know what went down, but proof is required.

    I'm not even saying Sanman or any one else here is guilty
    but I must point out the fraud that has alreaydy been exposed....
    Why do I even have to do this?.....It's in the public record
    and if someone wants to say otherwise they have to be prepared
    Last edited by limitles; 08-14-2019 at 07:06 PM.


  12. #35912
    Where you and I differ Limitles is that I generally don’t get upset by shenanigans and fraud.

    I came to PFA cause I’m a connoisseur of the game. I’m not an evangelist.

    They say idealism is the privilege of a child. I am too old and likely to stroke out.

    Tzvetkoff is living large on the Australian Gold Coast.
    PokerStars Baasov
    Micon is kicking it on some island
    Ferguson, Lederer etc etc Deal them in.
    Hell, my bookie at BOL is one of those guys. I forget the name. He’s thriving off Druff’s sportsbets

    Recently, Epstein.

    I got roped into PFA with poker payment processor Chad Elie. He did a little time but his wife is a Playboy Playmate. What a motherfuckin tale he told. Golf clap

    The list is endless.

    Rather than tilt windmills I absorb the stories. I admire the game. Justice is rare. Caveat Emptor is really all you can rely on.

    I’m pragmatic.

    Did I mention I fucking love the story of the con.

  13. #35913
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    "The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople" Sanlmar

    This one sentence tells you a lot about people in general and about the
    poster who posted.

    In this case we are talking about home mortgages. A significant investment/profit
    depending on your position

    Laws enabling loans to people who would otherwise not qualify was all of a sudden OK.
    The risks for these mortgages were inevitably bought and sold on Wall Street.
    When the market collapsed the lenders were not held accountable
    The lenders were bailed out.

    I haven't done one minute of research yet I know this.

    You are pathetic......I don't care to ever speak again

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Big brother isn’t going to protect you, homey
    Last edited by limitles; 08-14-2019 at 07:28 PM.


  14. #35914
    really wish I could get my hands on one of those MBS docs to read just for shits and grins...

    buffett said he wouldn't invest in the shit because the documents were just insanely long...if he's not gonna do that reading, wonder who actually did (outside of Paulson)…

    amazing how they could repackage a whole bunch of dogshit mortgages together to get a prime grade on it...

    AABBBBCCCCCCCCCCDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD DDDDD...guessing that's probably what a MBS looked like...maybe even more skewed towards the 'C' and 'D'...

  15. #35915
    Name:  Captureaaa.PNG
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    yeah while theres a lotta science behind shorting, think there's even more of an art to it...you actually have to get the market to believe the shit that you are trying to sell it...

    that's why I said they wouldn't stop until it hit $0.00...they have to drain every last penny outta their short to make up for the times that the market shoves it up their asses...

  16. #35916
    The credit rating agencies were fraud.

    Write them a check and they’d stamp it grade A

    I remember going to the library when I was a kid and getting the big Moody’s binders and looking shit up. Standard and Poors

    Well they had quarterly numbers to make too it turns out. Their customers were the guys writing the paper. Good system.

    Yeah, they sucked.

  17. #35917
    Can't Post limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The credit rating agencies were fraud.

    Write them a check and they’d stamp it grade A

    I remember going to the library when I was a kid and getting the big Moody’s binders and looking shit up. Standard and Poors

    Well they had quarterly numbers to make too it turns out. Their customers were the guys writing the paper. Good system.

    Yeah, they sucked.
    People willling
    to damage others for their own profit are
    really sick

    I've never come close to hurting any unsuspecting entity.
    No way does my profit equal thier loss
    Cold call some rube with bullshit and claiming a win?
    You are just sad


  18. #35918
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    is this a good time to bring up that apple are ramping up sub prime credit card offers?
    Actually, it’s a good time for trivia.

    The first person sentenced to prison following the collapse was a Goldman Sachs programmer.

    Like, he was pretty much the only Big Bank employee to be incarcerated. Odd

    Michael Lewis thought this peculiar. Of all the nonsense and fraud. Why this programmer?


    The programmer was innocent but played his hand badly with the Feds.

    He, in fact, was working on high frequency trading. He liked using open source code, I recall. He would modify the code and wished to return the changes back to the community. Goldman wasn’t a fan and felt it became theirs.

    The programmer would send it to free repositories for code storage so that he could access it later and removed his bash history.

    Mayhem ensues - Goldman guns for him and the secrets to which he is privy

    Michael Lewis discovers the wonderful world of HFT digging into the programmers plight and writes Flash Boys.

    Did I mention the programmer was Russian?

    # who

    # pkill -KILL -u sanlmar
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-14-2019 at 10:38 PM.

  19. #35919
    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Where you and I differ Limitles is that I generally don’t get upset by shenanigans and fraud.

    I came to PFA cause I’m a connoisseur of the game. I’m not an evangelist.

    They say idealism is the privilege of a child. I am too old and likely to stroke out.

    Tzvetkoff is living large on the Australian Gold Coast.
    PokerStars Baasov
    Micon is kicking it on some island
    Ferguson, Lederer etc etc Deal them in.
    Hell, my bookie at BOL is one of those guys. I forget the name. He’s thriving off Druff’s sportsbets

    Recently, Epstein.

    I got roped into PFA with poker payment processor Chad Elie. He did a little time but his wife is a Playboy Playmate. What a motherfuckin tale he told. Golf clap

    The list is endless.

    Rather than tilt windmills I absorb the stories. I admire the game. Justice is rare. Caveat Emptor is really all you can rely on.

    I’m pragmatic.

    Did I mention I fucking love the story of the con.
    Then you must love the Trump family story, seeing as they are a whole family of con artists and fraudsters. Truly a genuine American invention.

    P.S. Except Eric. He’s too dumb to do any real cons. And also not Tiffany. She was raised by her way-more-ethical-than-Trump golddigging mother.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    There is only one scumbag here:


    ME

  20. #35920
    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post

    Then you must love the Trump family story, seeing as they are a whole family of con artists and fraudsters. Truly a genuine American invention.

    P.S. Except Eric. He’s too dumb to do any real cons. And also not Tiffany. She was raised by her way-more-ethical-than-Trump golddigging mother.
    Are you kidding? It’s amazing. The psychological abuse. The military academy. The suicide.

    Roy freaking Cohn is your life coach. Good lord

    Best of all... Trump is the confluence of 100’s of chance occurances. Life is amazing.

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