***OFFICIAL MLB 2016 THREAD***

[gut]

Baltimore fans must be happy lol. The Oriole organization really should get attacked more for their recent failure at developing pitchers. Colorado gets all that attention, but they are working with a natural handicap that coaching can't fix. Baltimore had what looked like a potential-current-Mets situation 5 years ago, and they fucked every one of them up. Arrieta was bad until he went elsewhere, Tillman is still a starter for the O's, and a middling one at that, Britton has been converted to their closer (although he has been pretty solid in that role), Matusz is an average middle reliever, Gausman is the youngest and still has potential, and of course they spent his first few years yo-yo'ing him around between the rotation and the pen. All those guys at various points were considered pretty elite prospects.

That is some impressive level of fail.

[Dan Druff]

Kershaw threw a 46 mph "eephus" pitch.

[big dick]

cubs gonna win 100+ games this year? Best team mlb has seen in a long time

[BeerAndPoker]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/724760837219602432

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

cubs gonna win 100+ games this year? Best team mlb has seen in a long time

wouldn't put it past maddon to do it...guy knows how to manage people and get the best outta his talent...would be sick if they did it considering they lost schwarber...that dude mashes the shit outta right handed pitching...

[Dan Druff]

Looks like perhaps the Dodgers' thrftiness regarding Greinke is going to work out.

He got hit for 7 more runs tonight, and somehow still won.

It's not like the Dodgers front office knew he was going to have a bad year. They made him a lucrative offer, but Arizona beat it.

They just got lucky that Arizona pried him away. I guess it's still possible that he will turn it around and look Greinke-like, but this is already looking pretty ugly for Arizona.

In the meantime, Dave Roberts sat not one, not two, but THREE regulars against Miami tonight, and lost. Seager, Pederson, and Gonzalez were out of the lineup, and the Dodgers lost 3-2. I understand resting people, but why all at once?

[snake_in_the_ass]

Looks like perhaps the Dodgers' thrftiness regarding Greinke is going to work out.

He got hit for 7 more runs tonight, and somehow still won.

It's not like the Dodgers front office knew he was going to have a bad year. They made him a lucrative offer, but Arizona beat it.

They just got lucky that Arizona pried him away. I guess it's still possible that he will turn it around and look Greinke-like, but this is already looking pretty ugly for Arizona.

The Dodgers are not that smart. I remember listening to an analyst on the radio before the season started saying that Zach was going from a pitcher's park with an experienced catcher to a hitter's park with an average catcher and that he would get rocked in Arizona. Seems to be working out that way. He did pitch well on the road giving up 2 earned runs vs the padres and 1 earned run vs the giants. The Dbacks have a monster offense and I think they got a damn good chance of winning the West, even if Zach continues to struggle at home.

[Dan Druff]

Good article regarding the tanking in the NL which is occurring big time this year: http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney.../post?id=12685

I agree with it. There are some awful teams this year, most notably the Braves (they have like 3 or 4 home runs this YEAR), but also the Phillies, Reds, Brewers, and Padres.

Olney points out in the article that one problem compared to the past is the bullpen. In previous years, good pitchers could make a competitive game, even on a bad team. But now, with those pitchers having their innings closely watched, a bad bullpen (and impotent offense) can undo even a very good pitcher's strong outing.

On a side note, I got fucked today on a +135 bet on the Reds. They had a decent pitcher going, facing old man Bartolo Colon, and Cespedes was out of the lineup for the Mets. Sure enough, the Reds were up 3-0 after 6. In the 7th, with men on 1st and 2nd, somehow Cespedes (who was supposed to miss most of the week) found the strength to pinch hit, and bopped a 3-run HR. I lost the game 4-3.

Even worse, I had Cespedes benched on my fantasy team, so I didn't even get credit on that side of things.

[Sanlmar]

You guys don't deserve this tip but I am feeling uncharacterically generous having scooped the Red Sox over one of those tanking teams - the Braves. Always run line and totals. (I did not bet previous game as the Red Sox only got 5 hours of sleep after extra innings and travel)

The tip:
ESPN's Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney. Mon-Fri. Avail as daily podcast. I listen every night as I fall asleep.

As previously mentioned in a Dodger troll post, the Dodgers are 10 yrs too late to the value game. Post steroid power etc. Its about youth & the speed that comes with youth. It's now about scouting, drafting and the farm system. Dodger MBA geeks don't know.

The tanking is more pronounced now mostly because this is fact. The tanking issue needs to be addressed in the Natuonal League. In the AL and the East the big markets won't tolerate tanking.

I see a lot of college games. You see more scouts now. More scouts doing video and serious work. Buy these guys a hamburger and they will tell you great stories. They all sport their World Series rings if they got one.

Gonna see China's Bryant (35) vs Daly's Boston College (52) tomorrow afternoon. Two best D1 in East although Boston College athletic dept just can't pull their head out of their ass. It's a huge Sonatine style hate-watch for me.

[snake_in_the_ass]

On a side note, I got fucked today on a +135 bet on the Reds. They had a decent pitcher going, facing old man Bartolo Colon, and Cespedes was out of the lineup for the Mets. Sure enough, the Reds were up 3-0 after 6. In the 7th, with men on 1st and 2nd, somehow Cespedes (who was supposed to miss most of the week) found the strength to pinch hit, and bopped a 3-run HR. I lost the game 4-3.

You are not the only one who got fucked on that game.

[Dan Druff]

You guys don't deserve this tip but I am feeling uncharacterically generous having scooped the Red Sox over one of those tanking teams - the Braves. Always run line and totals. (I did not bet previous game as the Red Sox only got 5 hours of sleep after extra innings and travel)

The tip:
ESPN's Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney. Mon-Fri. Avail as daily podcast. I listen every night as I fall asleep.

As previously mentioned in a Dodger troll post, the Dodgers are 10 yrs too late to the value game. Post steroid power etc. Its about youth & the speed that comes with youth. It's now about scouting, drafting and the farm system. Dodger MBA geeks don't know.

The tanking is more pronounced now mostly because this is fact. The tanking issue needs to be addressed in the Natuonal League. In the AL and the East the big markets won't tolerate tanking.

I see a lot of college games. You see more scouts now. More scouts doing video and serious work. Buy these guys a hamburger and they will tell you great stories. They all sport their World Series rings if they got one.

Gonna see China's Bryant (35) vs Daly's Boston College (52) tomorrow afternoon. Two best D1 in East although Boston College athletic dept just can't pull their head out of their ass. It's a huge Sonatine style hate-watch for me.

It's more about scouting and drafting now because of the out-of-control salaries that have come with the foolish, unjustified TV contracts.

Why pay $10-$15 mil per year for a middling free agent or $20-$30 mil for a good free agent, when you can get good young players for anywhere from $500k to a few mil per year? And those guys get better, whereas 30-year-old free agents get worse.

So now tanking and salary dumping are all the rage, especially for smaller market teams which can't sink $200-$300 million into star players who may only give them 1 or 2 good years on a 7 year contract.

But this is all temporary. The TV money will run out (this will start when TV contract get negotiated after they expire), and it will be replaced by the much less lucrative subscription model.

Then the crazy salaries will decline again, and it will be more cost-effective to buy free agents than it currently is.

This will take awhile, though.

[snake_in_the_ass]

It's more about scouting and drafting now because of the out-of-control salaries that have come with the foolish, unjustified TV contracts.

Why pay $10-$15 mil per year for a middling free agent or $20-$30 mil for a good free agent, when you can get good young players for anywhere from $500k to a few mil per year? And those guys get better, whereas 30-year-old free agents get worse.

How many big contracts were worth the money?

Ryan Howard - No
Albert Pujols - No
Josh Hamilton - No
Barry Zito - No
Stanton - TBD
Votto - TBD
Freeman - TBD
Greinke - TBD

[Dan Druff]

So far the big Kershaw contract has been worth the money.

The Dodgers also got 3 excellent years out of Greinke before he opted out, which may have been a lucky break for them.

[Dan Druff]

Carl Crawford's big contract was probably the most LOL of recent big contracts, in that I knew it was ridiculous from the moment it was signed.

Dodgers were stupid to eat that (plus Beckett's ridiculous but shorter contract) just to get Gonzalez from the Red Sox, who also had a big contract.

Gonzalez has been worth the money the Dodgers are paying him, but not when you add Beckett and Crawford's money to it.

[Daly]

Carl Crawford's big contract was probably the most LOL of recent big contracts, in that I knew it was ridiculous from the moment it was signed.

Dodgers were stupid to eat that (plus Beckett's ridiculous but shorter contract) just to get Gonzalez from the Red Sox, who also had a big contract.

Gonzalez has been worth the money the Dodgers are paying him, but not when you add Beckett and Crawford's money to it.

Could have been worse. Could have went out and signed Panda and Ramierez on top of it.

The Red Sox fucked up a free lunch (after a fluke WS).

[gut]

It's more about scouting and drafting now because of the out-of-control salaries that have come with the foolish, unjustified TV contracts.

Why pay $10-$15 mil per year for a middling free agent or $20-$30 mil for a good free agent, when you can get good young players for anywhere from $500k to a few mil per year? And those guys get better, whereas 30-year-old free agents get worse.

How many big contracts were worth the money?

Ryan Howard - No
Albert Pujols - No
Josh Hamilton - No
Barry Zito - No
Stanton - TBD
Votto - TBD
Freeman - TBD
Greinke - TBD

Just as many are though....probably a 50/50 split TBH

AROD - yes
AROD pt 2. - yes
Jeter - yes
Cabrera pt1 - yes
Felix - yes
Beltran - yes
Bonds - yes
Pujols pt1 - yes
Texeira - pretty much yes
Posey - yes so far

[simpdog]

How many big contracts were worth the money?

Ryan Howard - No
Albert Pujols - No
Josh Hamilton - No
Barry Zito - No
Stanton - TBD
Votto - TBD
Freeman - TBD
Greinke - TBD

Just as many are though....probably a 50/50 split TBH

AROD - yes
AROD pt 2. - yes
Jeter - yes
Cabrera pt1 - yes
Felix - yes
Beltran - yes
Bonds - yes
Pujols pt1 - yes
Texeira - pretty much yes
Posey - yes so far

So what you're saying is all the big contracts in the steroid era worked out?

[Sanlmar]

But this is all temporary. The TV money will run out (this will start when TV contract get negotiated after they expire), and it will be replaced by the much less lucrative subscription model.

Then the crazy salaries will decline again, and it will be more cost-effective to buy free agents than it currently is.

This will take awhile, though.

"This will take a while, though". Talk about an understatement. I counted 15 of the biggest tv contracts running from 2028-2042.

End of article chart
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estim...-30-mlb-teams/

Your other point, "But this is all temporary" amazes me. I have gained a healthy respect for surprise when it comes to digital media trends and shifting viewing habits.

You or I cannot possibly hazard to guess what media will look like in 8-20 years. I feel pretty comfortable betting the notion that advertisers will always pay huge money for live eyeballs on a nightly basis.

The wild card is sports betting as a catalyst to increased viewership and interest. I am convinced the NBA is on the forefront in their advocacy and approval. Fantasy sports has telegraphed the future. Whether teams, college and pro get a cut is an interesting question too.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Speaking of contacts...the Bryce Harper one should be interesting...

10 years/500M? Don't know when he is eligible for it...think it might be after the '17 season...I mean he'd be 24 (?), then...so sick to say that the contract at that number might be worth it given the revenue situation teams are in...he doesn't get hurt that contract takes him from 24 to 34 and doesn't hit those drop off years that all these other long term deals hit on...so you are getting 8-9 years of pre-prime/prime years and maybe 1-2 years of a little down turn...that one is gonna break free agency as we know it...

[ftpjesus]

Speaking of contacts...the Bryce Harper one should be interesting...

10 years/500M? Don't know when he is eligible for it...think it might be after the '17 season...I mean he'd be 24 (?), then...so sick to say that the contract at that number might be worth it given the revenue situation teams are in...he doesn't get hurt that contract takes him from 24 to 34 and doesn't hit those drop off years that all these other long term deals hit on...so you are getting 8-9 years of pre-prime/prime years and maybe 1-2 years of a little down turn...that one is gonna break free agency as we know it...

Harpers contract actually ends after this year 2016. He does have 2 years of Salary Arb coming up but lets be honest the Nats have no chance of winning either of those fights and they know it.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washingto.../bryce-harper/