*** OFFICIAL Blackjack Card Counting Thread ***

[Dan Druff]

If you play blackjack and are tired of losing money, read this thread.

Note that the information here will not automatically make you a winning blackjack player. Note that showing a profit in blackjack can sometimes take a long time, as the edge is small and the variance is high. However, you can greatly improve your odds in blackjack by just taking a small amount of time to learn the basics of card counting.

First, learn basic strategy. Basic strategy is the "correct" strategy that nearly everyone (at least everyone besides complete morons) bases their play upon. You know... stuff like hitting 12 versus a dealer's 2 or 3, but not against 4 through 6.

Next, read the following article that teaches you how to count cards:

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/9541.html

(Do not read further until you have done the above.)

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Next, memorize the following exceptions to basic strategy based upon the count (in order of importance):

1) If the true count is at least +3, take insurance against an ace (regardless of what hand you hold).

2) If the true count is zero or positive, stand on 16 versus a dealer 10.

3) If the true count is at least +4, stand on 15 versus a dealer 10.

4) If the true count is at least +2, stand on 12 versus a dealer 3.

5) If the true count is at least +3, stand on 12 versus a dealer 2.

6) If the true count is -1 or less, hit on 13 versus a 2.

7) If the true count is zero or negative, hit on 12 versus a 4.

There are many other modifications, but the above are the most important ones. If you don't want to memorize these, at least memorize #1 and #2, as they are easily the most important to gain edge. Keep in mind that I am also giving basic numbers here, and am not accounting for minor differences that occur when playing 6-deck shoe versus double-deck, etc.

Other strategy notes:

- Penetration (how far they deal before reshuffling) is very important. If they cut off more than 2 decks out of 6, or 1 out of 2, it is very difficult to play a +EV blackjack game, even if you are counting.

- The number of players matters. Try to get tables with few players, preferably one other person. Playing heads-up is great EV-wise, but bad in the sense that you get watched far more closely by the pit. If your table is full, your EV will go down, and you may not even be a favorite in a marginal game (i.e. mediocre penetration and/or mediocre rules).

- The rules matter. NEVER play the single deck where they pay 6:5 for blackjack. It is unbeatable. Also avoid any games where you can't double on any two cards. It is advisable, especially in shoe games, to only play games where you are allowed to double after splitting. It is always to the player's advantage to have the dealer stand on soft 17 (rather than hit it), but this is getting more difficult to find other than at high-end Vegas strip casinos. Don't obsess over the hit/stand soft 17 thing, but keep in mind that it makes a difference.

- Do not ever place sidebets on what cards will be dealt. The house has a HUGE edge on these.

- Stay true to yourself and be disciplined. It sucks when you slam out 5 big bets in a row when the count is high, lose all 5, and then the shuffle comes before you can get unstuck. It's tempting to keep firing big after the shuffle, but that move is -EV and will kill you in the long run if you don't get that impulse under control.

My next post will discuss the very important concept of "cover" -- i.e. making yourself NOT look like a counter.

[Dan Druff]

Card Counting Cover

The biggest problem with card counting is that, while legal to do in the United States, it's against the house rules. Therefore, in all states but New Jersey, any casino can have you ejected from the blackjack game (or the casino itself) if they realize that you are counting.

Even worse, it is difficult to hide that you're a card counter. Playing winning blackjack unfortunately requires a rather obvious and predictable betting pattern that is easily recognized by a smart pit boss. Furthermore, deviating from this betting pattern will turn you into an overall -EV player, so while you probably won't be kicked out of the game, you'll be giving money to the casino instead!

There are, however, some things you can do to cover up what you're doing, who you are, and why you're playing. These are things I have noticed from personal experience, and many are quite effective. Keep in mind that you will still get kicked out for counting in many cases, but the below tips might be just enough to get you the benefit of the doubt....


1) Looks matter. Like everything in life, people stereotype you. Card counters have their own stereotype. The "typical" card counter is white, about 25-40 years old, playing alone (or with other counters), and has an "intellectual" look to him -- someone you'd expect to be good at math and/or computers. While many card counters don't look like this, this is the basic stereotype the pit bosses have in mind, and matching that description will increase the likelihood that you will get extra heat. Unfortunately, I fit this description perfectly, so it's important for me to try other things to turn the heat down a bit. Who doesn't look like a card counter? Any female, anyone over 50, anyone with an "urban" or thuggish look, and anyone who appears to be filthy rich. If you fit any of these descriptions, you are already at an advantage over other counters.

2) You are judged by the company you keep. Remember, you want to look like a typical gambler, not a calculating math nerd trying to take the casino's money. Card counters are not expected to bring their wife to watch them "work". That's something a casual gambler would do ("Hey honey, watch me play high stakes blackjack!") When I'm alone or with other guys, I get FAR more heat than when I'm with my girlfriend (who is usually assumed to be my wife, given that I'm 40.) It's also best not to play with other card counters, as your raising and lowering of bets will be nearly identical, and is a HUGE red flag. The good news: You are unlikely to run into any other capable card counters in a typical blackjack session.

3) Exception to #2: The "protection" trick. Say that I see Jim, an acquaintance I know through poker, walking the hallways of one of my favorite casinos. I tell Jim that I'm about to play blackjack, and Jim says, "Hey, I love blackjack! Let's go play together!" Unless Jim is a good card counter, which is unlikely, he's a GREAT asset to have -- possibly assuring that you won't get barred from the game no matter what you do. Casinos often will tolerate an evil to gain a greater good. If Jim is a -EV player and he's expected to lose more money than I am expected to win, most casinos will let us both stay in the game, figuring that throwing me out will cause Jim to leave, too. While I don't encourage using your close friends this way, ("Hey, good buddy, come play blackjack and lose a fortune so I can also play and not get any heat!"), I see no problem with piggybacking onto a player who is going to play anyway.

4) Talk up a storm. The worst thing you can do while card counting is to sit there quiet and emotionless as the hands unfold. Gamblers don't act like that. They are emotional, vibrant, and really into every card that's dealt. When I play blackjack, I like talking up each hand to the point where I'm annoying. Call for cards, comment on both good luck and bad, compliment your fellow players on their blackjacks and lucky draws, and pretty much don't keep your mouth shut. This accompishes two things: First, it makes you look like you couldn't be concentrating on the count with all the talking you're doing. Second, the talking itself distracts the dealer and pit boss from taking the time to assess the situation.

5) Don't be good at math. If you're asked what you do for a living, never answer, "Computer programmer", "Physicist", "Mathematician", "Engineer", or any other career that has a math basis to it. These careers are most likely to be those of card counters. Instead, answer something basic like, "I work in insurance", or "I manage a restaurant", or some other BS like that. Just have something prepared beforehand so you're not blindsided by a few questions. What if you're a pro poker player? Should you admit that? I used to think definitely not, but I've changed my mind somewhat. Most poker players are seen as sick gamblers, and not likely card counters. Still, I think you're safe to just pretend you have a conventional profession. Finally, don't show too much skill in being able to add up other people's hands too quickly. If the dealer squints at a hand of A-2-4-5-A-3-2, don't quickly blurt out, "That's 18." In fact, say the opposite, like, "Man, I can't even begin to figure out what that is!"

6) Wear your emotions on your sleeve. Be happy when you win, and high five the other players when the dealer busts unexpectedly. When you lose, play up your frustration. Complain how unlucky you are, how you always lose at this game, and how you can't figure out how the dealer always gets the better cards than you.

7) Take advantage of the "pissed off all-in bet". With the popularity nowadays of poker, the phrase "I'm all in" has become known to nearly everyone. If the count goes really high, and if you have been losing, you can place a bigger-than-usual maximum bet by grabbing your chip stack, shoving it all onto your betting spot, and announcing, "I'm all in!" This makes you look like a frustrated gambler rather than a card counter, yet you're getting big EV by putting up such a big bet in a highly positive situation. For example, say I've been spreading $50-$300, but have lost 3 hands in a row and now have $650 left. The true count is +7. I will shove my entire $650 onto the next hand, announce (seemingly pointlessly) "I'm all in", and rarely get much heat for it.

8) Know when to walk away. Know when to run. Unlike poker, you can't play blackjack for an unlimited amount of time in one session until you get even. At some point, you might get stuck enough to where coming all the way back to even will attract too much pit attention, and you'll get barred. This becomes a lose-lose situation, where you need to either walk away a loser or get banned from playing blackjack at that casino. Unless you don't plan upon visiting that establishment ever again, you should go with the former. Your results are not session-dependent, and you WILL lose sometimes. Often casinos will NOT eject card counters who are losing, hoping that they will eventually tilt and start playing -EV. Once you manage to start a comeback and have kept your wits about you the entire time, they will show you the door before you can get all the way unstuck. What if you are winning? Then it's especially important to leave. If you are ahead and have just completed an excellent round, leave when they get to the shuffle (or when the count drops irreversably negative).


Questions/comments welcome.

[danzo]

Good stuff.

[Dan Druff]

Many people believe a lot of incorrect things when it comes to blackjack and card counting -- even people who often believe they know a lot about both. Here are some examples:


MYTH #1: If you get thrown out of a blackjack game for counting cards, it's probably because your "act" wasn't good enough.

FACT #1: Acts can only take you so far. Most people are pegged as counters not by the way they look or act, but rather by the way they play. A sharp pit boss can identify a counter no matter how good their act is. If you are caught, there probably wasn't much you could have done about it, except perhaps have left earlier.



MYTH #2: Single deck is better than double deck when it comes to card counting.

FACT #2: In theory, single deck is better. In practice, double deck is better. There are two reasons for this. First, casinos are often very paranoid that counters will hit their single deck games -- and for good reason! Therefore, they often make the penetration (how far they deal before shuffling) horrendous, and often you will only get out 2 hands if there are more than 3 people at the table. Furthermore, they watch these games like a hawk, so it is difficult to effectively play +EV blackjack without getting ejected. While double deck also attracts its fair share of pit boss paranoia, it's not nearly as bad. Furthermore, it plays better at a full or near-full table than single deck, and there are many double-deck games on the Vegas strip with decent or good penetration. Finally, most single deck games have been converted to "6:5" games (that is, blackjack pays you 6/5 of your bet instead of 3/2), which is terrible.


MYTH #3: It is impossible to count a 6-deck shoe.

FACT #3: 6-deck shoes, under the right conditions, are very beatable. Since you are only keeping track of a running count, it doesn't matter if you're playing 1, 2, or 6 decks. The only problem that can occur is if you forget the count, you are stuck until they reshuffle, which can take awhile. 6-deckers with good penetration (1.7 decks cut off or less) are very beatable, especially if the rules are good. Look for shoe games with the surrender option, as that is especially helpful in high-count situations where you have a big bet and are dealt something crappy like 16 versus a 10.


MYTH #4: It's important to make some intentionally stupid plays (or bet high occasionally during negative counts) for "deception" purposes.

FACT #4: Betting big during negative counts kills your overall edge, as does making intentionally stupid plays. Remember that, even as a counter, your edge over the casino is small. If you really want to do things for deception, keep it to decisions that are close anyway, or involve small bets. For example, one blackjack book suggests ALWAYS taking insurance (not just on high counts) versus the dealer's ace, with the rationale being that you are only giving up value on your low bets, and that you're doing the correct thing on your big bets. Personally, I don't do this, but I can see where that suggestion makes sense as a "cheap" form of cover. However, too often I have seen counters make tilty-type bad plays, and they explain it away as "just trying to show the pit boss I'm not a counter". If you make intentionally wrong bets/plays, the pit boss might let you stay, but not for the reason you think. It's not that you're fooling him, it's that you're actually not playing winning blackjack!


MYTH #5: If card counting, you need to fear the dealer and not piss him off. He might know what you're up to, and will report you if you don't keep him happy.

FACT #5: It's not the dealer's job in most cases to detect card counters. Even if it is, he will usually report you if he's instructed to do so, and won't otherwise. Besides, the pit boss needs to see for himself before ejecting you. He won't take the dealer's word for it without making his own judgment. If a dealer gets abusive to you, speak up. If you're counting, you're probably one of the bigger action players, and you have some clout. I once played at the Rio, and the dealer was particularly obnoxious and nasty for no reason. He was like this from the beginning, so it wasn't because I was counting cards, and he treated the other players at the table (who weren't counting) just as poorly. Finally I had enough of it. I told him, "You are either going to shut your mouth now and let us play cards in peace, or I am calling the pit boss over and telling him that this casino lost my action forever and it's your fault. Which one is it going to be?" He didn't say another word. Remember that these dealers make good money, so they don't want to lose their job!


MYTH #6: It's important to tip the dealer big in order to get good penetration.

FACT #6: Tipping usually has almost zero effect on the game. Penetration is usually set by the house, often to where the dealer uses a marking on the shoe to do it the same each time. Even when some leeway is granted to the dealers, they tend to give penetration randomly. That is, some dealers give good penetration and some lousy, regardless of how much or how little they're tipped. In RARE cases, dealers will do you favors in exchange for tips, but this happens so infrequently that it's only advisable to tip extra when you are CONVINCED this is the case. Otherwise, tip very little. Feel bad for the dealer? Don't. Dealers make 100k/year at places like Wynn and Bellagio, and they make nice mid-upper 5-figure salaries elsewhere, thanks to the generous tips left by everyone else. If you overtip, again your edge will vanish.


MYTH #7: If you don't count cards, you still should avoid the continuous shuffling machines.

FACT #7: If you don't count cards, a lot of things don't matter. Among them include how/when the dealer shuffles and how many decks are used. Ignore those factors. If you are a non-counter, the only thing you should do is look for a game with the best rules. That's almost always a shoe game (6 decks or more), and make sure that you can double on any 2 cards, double after split, and blackjack pays 3:2. Also look for surrender, resplit aces, and dealer-stands-soft-17 rules if possible. If you don't count, at least play in a game with the best rules, in order to lessen the casino's edge.


MYTH #8: Weird rule variants of blackjack, such as "dealer cards face up", "double after 3 cards or more", "switch cards if you are playing 2 hands", or other player-helping rule changes are always a good thing.

FACT #8: These rule variants always come with a price. Often that price is a very costly rule change on the other side, such as player loses all ties or blackjack pays even money. These games are usually highly -EV and should be avoided.


MYTH #9: If you get kicked out of a casino for card counting, you're obviously a winning blackjack player.

FACT #9: Many pit bosses know the rough signs of a card counter, and don't watch closely enough to see if you're truly a +EV player. Of course, getting kicked out of MANY places is a good sign. However, the only way to really know if you're playing a winning blackjack game is to play a whole lot of it and honestly assess your results. Keep in mind, though, that the edge is small and the game is swingy, so you can be a -EV player who is up overall, or a +EV player who is down overall. That will flatten out over time. After you get a whole lot of sessions in, you should be showing a profit. If you're not, something might be wrong. Don't just blame luck!

[Dan Druff]

What if you get caught card counting?

They can ban you from the whole property, but most large casinos won't as long as it's your "first offense".


Here are the levels of banning that exist. They can do #1-8 at any time, even for the first offense. As I said, that usually doesn't happen, though. The only one they can't do is the final one (arrest) because that involves violating the trespass act.


LIGHTEST TO HEAVIEST:


1) Shuffling up. Dealer immediately shuffles, instead of waiting until the normal spot in the shoe to do so. This is to prevent card counters from taking advantage of a currently high count. This can be done in any casino. It should be illegal (because it hurts the non-counters, too), but somehow it isn't. Often a shuffle-up is followed by a great reduction in penetration (the point where the cut card is placed by the dealer to indicate shuffle).


2) One-handing. You are instructed to only play one hand at a time at the blackjack table, instead of 2 or more. They can do this in all casinos, and they are allowed to make it only apply to you and not others at the table.


3) Flat-betting. You are required to bet the same amount for the entire shoe. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City.


4) Restriction to only continuous shufflers. You are only allowed to play at blackjack tables with continuous shuffling machines. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City.


5) Blackjack Back-Off. You are told not to play blackjack anywhere in the casino. You can still play any other non-blackjack table game or slot machine without restriction. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This is usually what is done when "first-offense" card counters are caught at most casinos, especially major Vegas ones.


6) Ejection. You are told to leave the premises, and escored out by security. You are not subject to arrest if you return in the future, but it is implied that you are not welcome. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This often happens if you are caught counting for the second time.


7) Trespass act. You are told to leave the premises, and escored out by security. In addition, security reads you a statement that you will be considered trespassing if you ever set foot on the property again. Often you are banned from the company's other properties, as well, which is often stated as the trespass act is being read. This cannot be done in Atlantic City. This often happens if you are caught counting for the second time, and will almost always happen if caught counting after being ejected for it in the past.


8) Detention. You are detained in the back room for questioning. This should never be done to a card counter, since it is not illegal, unless he has violated the trespassing act. Still, this happens sometimes. Always resist being backroomed, as counters have been intimidated and even beaten up at times. This cannot be done in Atlantic City, unless actual cheating (not counting) is strongly suspected and can be proven.


9) Arrest. This can only occur if you violated the trespassing act. You are detained by security and arrested for trespassing, a misdemeanor. This cannot be done in Atlantic City, unless you were kicked out for reasons other than counting.






Which ones have I experienced? #1, #2, #4, #5, #6, and #7.


Why can't Atlantic City do anything but #1 and #2? There was a landmark court case a number of years ago, where it was made illegal to eject card counters. All they can do is either shuffle up on you or restrict you to one hand.

[Dan Druff]

I have played blackjack with many self-proclaimed card counters -- most of whom also are professional poker players. Of all the poker people I've played with (or observed), I can count only three who I feel are actually +EV in blackjack. The rest are just fooling themselves, much to the delight of casinos everywhere.

This is an astonishing situation. Poker is a subjective game. There are many right strategies to be successful in poker, and the correct way to play often varies from game to game. Therefore, it's a hell of a lot harder to become a good poker player than it is a good blackjack player. Winning blackjack is very mechanical and black-and-white. There are few tough decisions, and it's something that doesn't require a lot of practice or experience to become a winning player. I would think that any person smart enough to become a top-flight poker player should find winning blackjack to be a breeze. Surprisingly, this is not the case. Most blackjack-playing poker players understand the basics behind card counting, but most have tremendous leaks (or a lack of understanding of certain concepts) that make them clearly -EV in the game.

Perhaps you're one of those people. You think you play a +EV blackjack game, but your results are somehow negative. Are you just going through a run of bad luck, or are you actually not a winning player? Be honest with yourself and answer the below questions to find out....

Do you think you can beat non-live forms of blackjack, such as blackjack machines or online blackjack? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you closely examine the table rules and penetration (how far the dealer deals before shuffling) before sitting down at a blackjack game? If not, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you play blackjack games with weird variations on the rules, such as 6:5 Single Deck or Spanish 21? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you place side bets on the cards being dealt, such as "Lucky Ladies" or "Royal Match"? If so, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Have you ever been thrown out of a blackjack game for card counting? If not, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Have you only been thrown out of small casinos for card counting, yet seem to routinely get away with it at larger Vegas joints? If so, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you make terrible decisions at times, or place a huge bet during a negative count, simply telling yourself that it's important to do this for "cover"? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you sometimes make decisions based upon "feeling", fear, or tilt, rather than based upon what mathematical analysis says you should do? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you often forget the count, and make up for it by "winging it" by guessing where things are at? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you find it easy to talk with friends, drink a lot, and/or people-watch while playing blackjack? If so, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you routinely get generous comps from casinos, especially those from a host who has taken a personal interest in you? If so, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you have a "tilt problem" where you erratically place large bets regardless of the count? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

When you play with friends who you know are competent card counters, does your selection of big/small bets offer differ greatly from theirs? If so, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Can you immediately, off the top of your head, recite the times you are supposed to take insurance and stand on hard 16 versus a 10? If not, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

When you bet big, do most of your losses come from being dealt bad starting hands, rather than losing to big dealer hands? If so, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

Do you know the count at ALL TIMES during your blackjack play? If not, YOU ARE NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

When you raise your bets, do they tend to go up gradually, or do you often go from your minimum bet to something about 5-10 times the size? If they rise abruptly, YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT A WINNING BLACKJACK PLAYER.

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Bottom line: Most casinos aren't stupid. If you play there enough, and you're +EV against them, you will get the boot. Some small casinos will kick you at the slightest sign of being a counter, but most larger operations will watch you closely and determine if you really can beat them. If you find that friends/peers get kicked out way more often than you, don't assume it's just because you have a great cover. It's probably because you're not a winning player. Keep in mind that, if I owned a casino, I'd give a personal invitation to over 90% of poker players who claim they can count cards -- and I'd let them stay indefinitely for free.

Some poker players have watched me play and condescendingly chided me afterwards. "It's so obvious you're a card counter, Todd", they remark, and then go on to brag about how they do so much of a better job hiding what they're doing. And they probably do. Because these people are actually losing players, they do a great job at "hiding" their ability to win from these supposedly stupid casinos, while nerdy math guys like me keep getting thrown out.

The truth is that it's impossible to hide that you're a card counter, no matter how good your act is. Sit me down with any blackjack player, and I'll tell you if he's a winning player or not within 25-30 minutes -- maybe less.

Don't fool yourself. You may be great at poker, but that doesn't automatically translate to other forms of gambling. Many top poker pros have lost their rolls to blackjack, craps, and sportsbetting -- always assuming that they knew how to beat the house. In almost all cases, they don't.