***Official Las Vegas Legal Marijuana Thread***

[vegas1369]

Oh, and California has not even begun to become the shitshow that it eventually will be. All of these smaller players who are actually medium sized players right now, they are going to be driven out of business. All the Humboldt growers are potentially screwed. The state will be regulating this and it's going to get a lot more serious, and a lot of shit that flew in the past isn't going to fly anymore. This potentially is going to kill the economies of the Emerald Triangle, at least the growers that exists there now.

[GrenadaRoger]

Oh, and California has not even begun to become the shitshow that it eventually will be. All of these smaller players who are actually medium sized players right now, they are going to be driven out of business. All the Humboldt growers are potentially screwed. The state will be regulating this and it's going to get a lot more serious, and a lot of shit that flew in the past isn't going to fly anymore. This potentially is going to kill the economies of the Emerald Triangle, at least the growers that exists there now.

So California has excess supply and the supplier industry needs to shrink. So what? It happens in all industries when supply exceeds demand -- the industry is stagnant. There are ways for companies to survive in stagnant markets

Strategies for Success
Given these realities, are there any approaches that not only avoid the possibility of extinction but that also offer hope for a reasonable return on investment in stagnant industries? Our research uncovered three common characteristics of the strategies of businesses that have succeeded in stagnant industries: they identify, create, and exploit growth segments within their industries; they emphasize product quality and innovative product improvement; and they systematically and consistently improve the efficiency of their production and distribution systems.

Harvard Business Review, "How to Compete in Stagnant Industries"

https://hbr.org/1979/09/how-to-compe...ant-industries

notice that the surviving companies take actions that result in better product for the consuming public--so some economic Darwinism sounds worthwhile to me

the choice is benefiting the consuming public vs protecting economically a select class of citizens (growers)

i say bring on the shitstorm for a while to weed out the weak producers

[sonatine]

the prevailing theory is that the koch brothers and their ilk are creating deliberately exploitable weaknesses in the market, so that early adapter growers cant afford to stay in the market and are forced to sell their licenses, equipment, and land to "big marijuana" for pennies on the dollar.


honestly its quite fucking brilliant.


also its not really a theory considering its exactly what happened in washington. but every state after has made minor variations in the laws without really closing the door on the 'big marijuana' end game.

Where are you seeing this about the Koch brothers? Reliable? I know and know about a lot of big groups in California, I'm talking massive amounts of acreage, MASSIVE, and I've never heard the Koch brothers name come up. Other big names yes, but a lot of them are already involved in the agriculture industry.

http://bfy.tw/D69f


what i described is exactly what happened in washington state. its their lobbyists who insist on shit like "oh and even tho its legal recreationally, people cant grow it for personal use legally without a medical card", etc.

they lobby for a market guaranteed to fail then swoop on the people desperate to get out.

[sonatine]

GrenadaRoger: clever, but not in the mood for and easter egg hunti


nod, i forget what site i read it on, i think it was vanity fair or something of that caliber..?, but they covered the washington pot meltdown with spectacular depth.

[simpdog]

Every article I read about Canada 2018 legalized sales is that producers are not ready for the demand.

I'm not sure on the legality of importing weed but if countries allow it I'm guessing it will take 5 yrs for supply to get up to speed

[gimmick]

Oh, and California has not even begun to become the shitshow that it eventually will be. All of these smaller players who are actually medium sized players right now, they are going to be driven out of business. All the Humboldt growers are potentially screwed. The state will be regulating this and it's going to get a lot more serious, and a lot of shit that flew in the past isn't going to fly anymore. This potentially is going to kill the economies of the Emerald Triangle, at least the growers that exists there now.

So California has excess supply and the supplier industry needs to shrink. So what? It happens in all industries when supply exceeds demand -- the industry is stagnant. There are ways for companies to survive in stagnant markets

Strategies for Success
Given these realities, are there any approaches that not only avoid the possibility of extinction but that also offer hope for a reasonable return on investment in stagnant industries? Our research uncovered three common characteristics of the strategies of businesses that have succeeded in stagnant industries: they identify, create, and exploit growth segments within their industries; they emphasize product quality and innovative product improvement; and they systematically and consistently improve the efficiency of their production and distribution systems.

Harvard Business Review, "How to Compete in Stagnant Industries"

https://hbr.org/1979/09/how-to-compe...ant-industries

notice that the surviving companies take actions that result in better product for the consuming public--so some economic Darwinism sounds worthwhile to me

the choice is benefiting the consuming public vs protecting economically a select class of citizens (growers)

i say bring on the shitstorm for a while to weed out the weak producers

It's not really given that it results in a better product for the public. One scenario that could very easily play out when there's say 3x supply that a single company buys 1/3 of the farms and starts selling their product at a loss or minimal profit till they are the only operator that's left. Monopoly results in a weaker and pricier product fairly often. Licenses might also present a barrier that would serve to protect that monopoly. Invisible hand works in mysterious ways.

[GrenadaRoger]

So California has excess supply and the supplier industry needs to shrink. So what? It happens in all industries when supply exceeds demand -- the industry is stagnant. There are ways for companies to survive in stagnant markets

Strategies for Success
Given these realities, are there any approaches that not only avoid the possibility of extinction but that also offer hope for a reasonable return on investment in stagnant industries? Our research uncovered three common characteristics of the strategies of businesses that have succeeded in stagnant industries: they identify, create, and exploit growth segments within their industries; they emphasize product quality and innovative product improvement; and they systematically and consistently improve the efficiency of their production and distribution systems.

Harvard Business Review, "How to Compete in Stagnant Industries"

https://hbr.org/1979/09/how-to-compe...ant-industries

notice that the surviving companies take actions that result in better product for the consuming public--so some economic Darwinism sounds worthwhile to me

the choice is benefiting the consuming public vs protecting economically a select class of citizens (growers)

i say bring on the shitstorm for a while to weed out the weak producers

It's not really given that it results in a better product for the public. One scenario that could very easily play out when there's say 3x supply that a single company buys 1/3 of the farms and starts selling their product at a loss or minimal profit till they are the only operator that's left. Monopoly results in a weaker and pricier product fairly often. Licenses might also present a barrier that would serve to protect that monopoly. Invisible hand works in mysterious ways.

there are some good points in your ideas, but...

i believe selling below cost on other than for product introduction is already against the law -- particularly if the goal is to take market share (antitrust laws)

certainly if the market were not regulated to ensure fragmentation and some competition it could result long term in a few big companies dominating the industry with market share sliced up in the classic 50%, 25%, 11% and the rest held by small fries with less than 5%...particularly if the industry has technology that supports a business strategy based on economies of scale

also, innovation is happening in the marijuana industry I believe--witness the various strains/hybrids developed over the last decade, plus the growth in consumables, oils etc...the public is being served with improved selection

like all businessmen, growers want to make money and using government to limit competition is one way: keeping out big companies is the first step, then comes keep out any other entrants, and last is setting production limits to ensure all produced is sold at a profit...from the growers perspective, it's certainly a lot safer to bind together as a coalition of growers to influence regulation than for growers to compete against one another

imho, so far the growers, distributors and retailers have been able to keep big tobacco, shippers and retailers out (that's not bad)...yet apocalypse stories of excess production in California invite market intervention by regulators to take the next steps (notice the source of information for that story)...I say give the market time to work

[donkdowndonedied]

That testing is very expensive though. When I'm selling flower I have to get it tested in increments of every 5 lb. Every one of those tests cost me between $300 to $500. there is a lot of cost involved before I actually get product to Market but I am still able to maintain a very good price per pound that will reflect a $50 eighth at a dispensary. I can't control what they decide to mark it up to it that point though and as of right now they're marking up by 150%.

also my apologies for all the typos, I'm running around like crazy today and can only respond by doing talk-to-text.

This is a concern of mine. I wish these tests were down to like $50. I would like to test some of the weed I buy.

Is $1800 a pound a good price for a state this has no medicinal marijuana? (No gray market)

[vegas1369]

That testing is very expensive though. When I'm selling flower I have to get it tested in increments of every 5 lb. Every one of those tests cost me between $300 to $500. there is a lot of cost involved before I actually get product to Market but I am still able to maintain a very good price per pound that will reflect a $50 eighth at a dispensary. I can't control what they decide to mark it up to it that point though and as of right now they're marking up by 150%.

also my apologies for all the typos, I'm running around like crazy today and can only respond by doing talk-to-text.

This is a concern of mine. I wish these tests were down to like $50. I would like to test some of the weed I buy.

Is $1800 a pound a good price for a state this has no medicinal marijuana? (No gray market)

Depends on quality and quantity. If we're talking just 1 lb at a time or even up to maybe 10 lbs, I would expect no less than $2,200 per lb for mid to upper grade. Supreme top shelf I've seen go for up to $4,500.

Also, there is no way testing will ever be that cheap with the testing parameters that are set up in Nevada. It's just simply too expensive for them to run the tests. $50 is well below their cost plus setting up a Testing Lab here cost well over a million dollars.

[GrenadaRoger]

This is a concern of mine. I wish these tests were down to like $50. I would like to test some of the weed I buy.

Is $1800 a pound a good price for a state this has no medicinal marijuana? (No gray market)

Depends on quality and quantity. If we're talking just 1 lb at a time or even up to maybe 10 lbs, I would expect no less than $2,200 per lb for mid to upper grade. Supreme top shelf I've seen go for up to $4,500.

Also, there is no way testing will ever be that cheap with the testing parameters that are set up in Nevada. It's just simply too expensive for them to run the tests. $50 is well below their cost plus setting up a Testing Lab here cost well over a million dollars.

btw, where is your product sold? what is the brand name? is there a numbering system/coding on the product packaging that identifies the maker/grower?

when I visit LV I would like to buy some of yours. Thanks!

[gimmick]

It's not really given that it results in a better product for the public. One scenario that could very easily play out when there's say 3x supply that a single company buys 1/3 of the farms and starts selling their product at a loss or minimal profit till they are the only operator that's left. Monopoly results in a weaker and pricier product fairly often. Licenses might also present a barrier that would serve to protect that monopoly. Invisible hand works in mysterious ways.

there are some good points in your ideas, but...

i believe selling below cost on other than for product introduction is already against the law -- particularly if the goal is to take market share (antitrust laws)

certainly if the market were not regulated to ensure fragmentation and some competition it could result long term in a few big companies dominating the industry with market share sliced up in the classic 50%, 25%, 11% and the rest held by small fries with less than 5%...particularly if the industry has technology that supports a business strategy based on economies of scale

also, innovation is happening in the marijuana industry I believe--witness the various strains/hybrids developed over the last decade, plus the growth in consumables, oils etc...the public is being served with improved selection

like all businessmen, growers want to make money and using government to limit competition is one way: keeping out big companies is the first step, then comes keep out any other entrants, and last is setting production limits to ensure all produced is sold at a profit...from the growers perspective, it's certainly a lot safer to bind together as a coalition of growers to influence regulation than for growers to compete against one another

imho, so far the growers, distributors and retailers have been able to keep big tobacco, shippers and retailers out (that's not bad)...yet apocalypse stories of excess production in California invite market intervention by regulators to take the next steps (notice the source of information for that story)...I say give the market time to work

Selling at a loss and cartels are mostly illegal, but there are ways around those laws. Even legally capital gives a far bigger edge compared to having just a slightly better product regarding market share.

Without regulation market leader would have a much bigger share than 50%. Profit margins and ROI scale with market share even if you remove quality, early entry, broad product lines ect. And it goes all the way to 100%.

If you let it play out it kinda resembles a tournament where every player starts with different size stack, play the game by a different set of rules and differing levels of information. There is no mechanism that deadlocks the game before there is just 1 player left and fair is not word i would use to describe that game.

[sonatine]

President-elect 2020 Cory Booker just pitched legislation to basically deschedule marijuana nationally. Real talk.

[GrenadaRoger]

President-elect 2020 Cory Booker just pitched legislation to basically deschedule marijuana nationally. Real talk.

i hate myself for doing this, but

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...l-justice-bil/



that is two times for my providing a link Sont didn't leave...first AND last

[sonatine]

honestly i figure if anyone really cares they can just google it or pretty much got to any news site in God's America but yeah.

[sonatine]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzz-ki...ces-1504094410


in fairness we all saw this coming.

[Baron Von Strucker]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzz-ki...ces-1504094410


in fairness we all saw this coming.

watched it happen in WA. one day joints 1gm is $10 6months later same company has them for $4 each 3.5gm's average weed for $30 top quality for $40 artesian small batch stuff no more that $50

in vancouver 1lb KGB is less than $1400 ca wholesale

to say the least it is a buyers market.
LOL at anyone who would pay $4500 for a lb of any kind of herb even 15 years ago.

same thing will happen to vegas i assume unless there is some kind of price fixing which is highly illegal.

[vegas1369]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzz-ki...ces-1504094410


in fairness we all saw this coming.

watched it happen in WA. one day joints 1gm is $10 6months later same company has them for $4 each 3.5gm's average weed for $30 top quality for $40 artesian small batch stuff no more that $50

in vancouver 1lb KGB is less than $1400 ca wholesale

to say the least it is a buyers market.
LOL at anyone who would pay $4500 for a lb of any kind of herb even 15 years ago.

same thing will happen to vegas i assume unless there is some kind of price fixing which is highly illegal.

Or they limit the amount of licenses, which they've already done. Nevada will most likely be a very different market in this regard. This is happening in states like Washington because they handed out cultivation licenses like candy. There was over 7,000 approved cultivation licenses in Washington.... Nevada approved 183.

[vegas1369]

And the $4,500 comment by Baron... No offense, but... Comments like this are simply uneducated comments. I know of SEVERAL dispensaries in Nor Cal paying in excess of $4,500 a lb for Zkittlez by 3rd Gen Farms (taste the strain, bro). Certain types of award winning strains will fetch this kind of dough on the regular even in highly saturated markets. If you own a dispensary and you want to be one of the select groups that carries that very sought after strain, that is what you pay and you still make keystone on it. Laugh all you want about the dispensaries paying it, and the rich connoisseurs paying those prices.


Btw, I just picked up a cut of this exact strain

[Baron Von Strucker]

watched it happen in WA. one day joints 1gm is $10 6months later same company has them for $4 each 3.5gm's average weed for $30 top quality for $40 artesian small batch stuff no more that $50

in vancouver 1lb KGB is less than $1400 ca wholesale

to say the least it is a buyers market.
LOL at anyone who would pay $4500 for a lb of any kind of herb even 15 years ago.

same thing will happen to vegas i assume unless there is some kind of price fixing which is highly illegal.

Or they limit the amount of licenses, which they've already done. Nevada will most likely be a very different market in this regard. This is happening in states like Washington because they handed out cultivation licenses like candy. There was over 7,000 approved cultivation licenses in Washington.... Nevada approved 183.

hope fully this will work in Nevada even though there are 4.5 million more people in WA than in Nevada, 7K thats a lot of herb growers. I am sure the market will even its self out at some point as growers shut down production for lack of sales. It will be interesting who will win out on this the large operations or the smaller local outfits? i guess we will see soon enough.

[vegas1369]

Or they limit the amount of licenses, which they've already done. Nevada will most likely be a very different market in this regard. This is happening in states like Washington because they handed out cultivation licenses like candy. There was over 7,000 approved cultivation licenses in Washington.... Nevada approved 183.

hope fully this will work in Nevada even though there are 4.5 million more people in WA than in Nevada, 7K thats a lot of herb growers. I am sure the market will even its self out at some point as growers shut down production for lack of sales. It will be interesting who will win out on this the large operations or the smaller local outfits? i guess we will see soon enough.

Dude... we get over 40 million visitors a year. Population numbers don't mean a whole lot here. I expect it to go past 50 million a year once we start allowing public consumption.