President 2016

[TheXFactor]

I think Trump may have finally lost one of his big gambles. He should have done the debate and the fundraiser the next night. Seems like there was a momentum shift there. To what extent? Wel keep watching to find out. Nice call on Iowa abrown.

Would not have mattered one bit.
Cruz "won" because of evangelicals and his 12,000 volunteers.

Trump's people and volunteers aren't very organized, they are confused and don't know what the fuck they are doing. Still Trump got a lot more votes than most people thought he would.

It's still early and almost all the candidates got delegates out of Iowa.

Cruz...8 delegates
Trump...7 delegates
Rubio...7 delegates
Bush...3 delegates

New Hampshire is a primary not a caucus.
Trump has a huge advantage there.
Far less religious fanatics.

Still neither Trump, Cruz or Rubio may have enough delegates to become the Republican nominee. In that case, it there would be a "brokered convention" and there would have to be some sort of deal.

Trump/Rubio 2016

[4Dragons]

[Sanlmar]

Cruz right wing conservatism makes him almost palatable. I was willing to listen to his speech. When he fired off a dozen God references in first 2 minutes ..... I just can't.

Yet I watched Sanders too. So proud he is not a PAC product. Average donor $27. Guy seems so sincere about his positions.
I got no problem with free State colleges (it's about what they are worth)
Hates Wall Street speculators & the bailouts - ironically, I got no problem with this either. The big houses really have no productive role anymore.
$15 minimum wage. Face it. It's really the right thing if folks are full time.

I hate politics so much I can't honestly say which of these two I would vote for. Amazing these are the choices we are given.

Well, vote for your delegates, get a brokered convention and pray the electoral college does the right thing. Lol, 'Murica democracy.

[big dick]

Wait so Rubio is now the front runner? Is this the same guy who never shows up to senate votes? Same guy who is bought and paid for to fullfill sheldon adelsons agenda?
NICE fucking frontrunner GOP
No wonder I have never voted once for anyone ever in your shit party.
Rubio, if you gop halfwits vote rubio in office you are by far the largest collection of morons the planet has ever seen.

[Jayjami]

Rubio was the biggest winner last night by far. He's the one most likely to get the kasich, christie, bush voters once they fall by the wayside completely.

You are correct Pooh (can't believe I said that). Now that he has some traction, the GOP establishment money will flow into his campaign coffers. IMO, he is the biggest threat to Hilary, that's the main reason people voted for him. They recognize that Cruz and Trump have zero chance in the general election.

[big dick]

herbert- I honestly think you have dog shit in the middle of your head instead of a brain.

[DRK Star]

was hoping more people would drop out and money would go to Paul, but so far, its sounding like Rubio is the new favorite, according to betting sites.

[4Dragons]

was hoping more people would drop out and money would go to Paul, but so far, its sounding like Rubio is the new favorite, according to betting sites.

My rundown was that Cruz would take Iowa and Carson and Rubio would get a good showing because.. Evangelicals. Trump came up 2 Corinthians short but didn't really lose ground. I do believe that Rubio will do better in more metropolitan areas, but not big cities. Cruz has the hillbilly vote on lock with his Constitution before everything else talk. I see Carson taking a huge shit in NH and Jeb coming up a bit, maybe beating Carson. Trump should crush there though. Cruz is an asterisk in that area, I have no idea how he'll fare? Third to Rubio perhaps?

[abrown83]

There is only one path to Trump winning NH at this point and that is Bernie supporters thinking he is so far ahead that they will vote for Trump.

Part of Trump's appeal is that he is a winner. When all of a sudden you aren't a winner anymore the bandwagon may quickly disappear.

I think a poll comes out on Friday/Saturday showing Rubio within 10 points of Trump and by election night we see something around the margin of error difference.

Meaning Trump wins or loses by 4-5% points either way. That's a massive swing by a guy winning by 20+ right now.

Early Line for NH:

Rubio - 26%
Trump - 25%
Cruz - 16%

It doesn't matter after that.

[Daly]

I got one book that's hanging Rubio as the -130 for the nomination. That's a big turn for him.

[abrown83]

I got one book that's hanging Rubio as the -130 for the nomination. That's a big turn for him.

You can get Rubio for $.49 on PredictIt

So $.51 minus 10% = $.46 so roughly -107.

That's particularly bad -130 because you are locked in and PredictIt you can bail anytime up to the final decision.

[Sanlmar]

Was there a prop for this Daly? Flipping coins for delegates. Democracy is lol

Coin toss broke 6 Clinton-Sanders deadlocks in Iowa — and Hillary won each time


While it was hard to call a winner between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders last night, it’s easy to say who was luckier.

The race between the Democrat presidential hopefuls was so tight in the Iowa caucus Monday that in at least six precincts, the decision on awarding a county delegate came down to a coin toss. And Clinton won all six, media reports said.

@HillaryClinton won a delegate in the #IowaCaucus by a coin toss. They literally let money decide the election


The situation came about in precincts where Sanders and Clinton were running neck-and-neck, but there were an odd number of delegates, so they couldn’t be evenly split between the two. That was the case in precincts in Ames, Newton, West Branch, Davenport and two in Des Moines, the Des Moines Register reported.

[Daly]

I got one book that's hanging Rubio as the -130 for the nomination. That's a big turn for him.

You can get Rubio for $.49 on PredictIt

So $.51 minus 10% = $.46 so roughly -107.

That's particularly bad -130 because you are locked in and PredictIt you can bail anytime up to the final decision.

. Point being he became expensive fast, not that it's a good deal.

[MumblesBadly]

Watching election coverage on Fox News now. Lots of coverage of Rubio with flattering video. Looks like GOP TV is pulling out the stops to make him look presidential. Almost Kennedyesque in appeal. It's the smart play to keep the GOP from blowing their chance to defeat Hillary in the fall.

[Pooh]

One of the Republicans will earn enough delegates to get the nomination. At some point, momentum will snowball and someone will end up winning in a landslide.

[BetCheckBet]

For me there are a few big things about last night.

-Rubio not only performed well but the other major GOP established candidates did poorly. Likely that GOP establishment may force out others sooner rather than later to solidify support for Rubio.
-Despite large turnout, Trump was hurt. Exit polls show that Trump performed very badly with on the fence voters. This is going to continue to hurt him given that polling has already showed he does poorly in second picks.

Essentially, once Bush, Christie, and Paul are out, Trump is in trouble. Ironically, Trump needs them to perform well in NH. He needs this to go multiway for as long as possible.

I don't expect Cruz to be a serious contender for reasons already highlighted in this thread. I think both Cruz and Carson may hurt Trump by stealing support from him.

I think at this point its Rubio vs Trump if nothing big happens by end of SC.

[Pooh]

For me there are a few big things about last night.

-Rubio not only performed well but the other major GOP established candidates did poorly. Likely that GOP establishment may force out others sooner rather than later to solidify support for Rubio.
-Despite large turnout, Trump was hurt. Exit polls show that Trump performed very badly with on the fence voters. This is going to continue to hurt him given that polling has already showed he does poorly in second picks.

Essentially, once Bush, Christie, and Paul are out, Trump is in trouble. Ironically, Trump needs them to perform well in NH. He needs this to go multiway for as long as possible.

I don't expect Cruz to be a serious contender for reasons already highlighted in this thread. I think both Cruz and Carson may hurt Trump by stealing support from him.

I think at this point its Rubio vs Trump if nothing big happens by end of SC.

Cruz will be there at the end. You heard it here first.

[drufdajewgod]

God damn your system is complicated even just electing a nominee. But the fact a guy born in your "hat" got on the board first has got to piss some people off on here atleast a bit lol.I wouldnt dream of voting for Cruz even as prime minister.

[SrslySirius]

Tonight proved that Trump's poll numbers don't tell the whole story. He was shown by polls leading by 5% coming into the caucus, and he lost by 4%. That's a huge swing, and it means that many of his supporters are all talk but no vote -- something many Trump detractors have been saying all along.

Intersting that you bring that up. Here's a relevant article Nate Silver put out before the caucus: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...state-to-poll/

TL;DR: polling data for the Iowa caucus is notoriously unreliable and that 9% swing is actually close to the margin of error

[drufdajewgod]

"NO NEED TO PANIC, WE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. I BELIEVE IN OLD FASHION GROUND WORK, IM CONFIDENT IT WILL PAY OFF"