President 2016

[Salty_Aus]

I'm going to come across as a bit of a douche but I really know more about this then anyone on this board by miles.

In order to get Trump to the numbers they are reporting they are basing turnout at 170,000 voters on Monday. No Iowa Caucus has had more than 120,000. When you weight the numbers more towards historical turnouts the numbers are more like 35% Cruz, 18% Trump, 16-18% Rubio. Now my common sense brain is telling me people are bailing on Trump left and right around Iowa based on no showing the debate.

Cruz has 12,000 Iowa volunteers on Monday. Think about that 10% of all the people voting are volunteering to assist the night of the caucus. That's more votes than most candidates will get and he has that in volunteers. The guy is doubling up on captains for the caucus locations.

It would probably require Trump to get 25,000 Republican registrations the night of the caucus that'd be adding 5% to the Republican Party in Iowa. An unheard of and impossible number.

Rubio is surging in Iowa and presumably that will carry forward into NH, especially if he finished second.

Lastly, by Tuesday Trump will be in full meltdown mode and most likely calling Iowans stupid, Republicans stupid, Cruz stupid, Rubio stupid and basically anyone and everyone in his path before he quits like a little bitch.

[FPS_Russia]

Check it out if your not 100% sure how primary elections work. They're insane and complex.


Have any of you guys went to a caucus and voted? Did you literally argue with the other voters til you could agree?

Primaries seem like they can be rigged by the establishment, sketchy process imo.

[anchordraw]

The Iowa Caucus is a complete fail. Many tried to allow absentee ballots to allow service members to vote on their Commander in Chief. Iowa once again said no. As a former member of the military, I find it offensive that a state intentionally constructs a primary system that insures military member serving their country are excluded from voting.

Others excluded include anyone working during the 7pm-9pm window. Firemen, police officers, doctors, just to name a few. Now the state only gets 5-10% turnout for these silly caucuses. Hardly a true representation of the Iowa electorate anyway, but to insure many solid citizens of that state will not be able to vote is a complete fail imo.

Trump should have gone to last debate. His veterans fund raiser was nice, but nobody should change their vote because of that, while many possible voters in Iowa may few it as a snub, while military members can't vote anyway, due to the corn picker rules.

How would an absentee ballot ever work with a caucus? I do support your objection to the caucus process. Does the rest of the world really appreciate all the edges that are played in the US process? Democracy, lol.

I just have this gut feel Nate Silver and the rest have not focused enough on the actual caucus process and how this plays into a charismatic and polarizing candidate's hand.

Saw a Marketwatch piece written by a reporter who placed a bet on the Presidential election using Bitcoin.

Betting on US elections has been positively verboten. Not Vegas not anywhere. This has always been white hot. AG's might ignore a lot of things but this?

Watching to see if this gets traction.

Also, will Russia always scramble jets on primary days? Sorta a flyover on Trump's behalf?

I'm not saying absentee works in a caucus system, I'm saying the caucus system shuts out many people, including a Sailor serving his country floating around in an ocean somewhere, or a soldier standing post in a foreign land, that may have grown up in Iowa, graduated HS and join the military, and can't even vote for the man or women that gets to decide how his unit is used to defend our country.

[larrylegend33]

Rubio now favored to win Republican nominee...

Rubio +100 (was +225)
Trump +160 (was +100)
Cruz 6/1 (no change)
Bush 15/1 (was 9/1)

[DRK Star]

Cruz, during his speech tonight, said that he had 12,000 volunteers helping him in Iowa, get the word out and work phones, etc.


He received 51,496 votes


12K people to get 51K votes sounds terrible.

[anchordraw]

I went to the rodeo last weekend at the Colusiem in Biloxi. Maybe 2000 people. Most or maybe half were friends or participants in the rodeo. When Trump visited on 2 Jan, they had 17,500. The Colusiem holds only 13,500. They put overflow into convention center to watch on a big screen TV.

Monster Trucks are coming this month. Last year, we got about 2,000 for that also. Trump is not dead because he didn't win Iowa. Hell, there was no adverticing for trumps visit, and they got 17,500. No event I've gone to in last two year get more than 2,000 paid. and many of those weren't paid. I got my ticket to the rodeo at a discount from I guy selling comped tickets from a local casino. They were waiting 10 hours in line to make sure they could get a seat when Trump came to town. The only reason I even knew Trump was coming, was I saw the lines. I thought about going, but knew I couldn't even get in.

Just saying with no advertising Trump sold out the place where any band, rodeo, monster truck fest is lucky to fill 20% of the places capacity. No other candidate has been to Biloxi.

Not saying I'm voting for trump, just saying, I'm not even sure Biloxi has 17K residents, and he had more people willing to pay $5 to park to see him than any event in that place sense I've lived here, with no advertising that he was coming. Trumps will win In Mississippi not sure about other states.

I'll go watch the grave digger drive his truck, but only expect a couple thousand others. Trump was like the Beatles coming to town though.

[Dan Druff]

Cruz, during his speech tonight, said that he had 12,000 volunteers helping him in Iowa, get the word out and work phones, etc.


He received 51,496 votes


12K people to get 51K votes sounds terrible.

It sounds terrible, but it's worth it because of how influential the Iowa results can be.

This year Iowa is especially important for both parties, because we have a weird, atypical candidate on each side (Sanders and Trump).

I know that I was far more excited about the Iowa results than I have ever been before, where I would usually laugh it off as early and mostly meaningless. Here it mattered because it would establish or break momentum for the super-outsider candidates.

Tonight proved that Trump's poll numbers don't tell the whole story. He was shown by polls leading by 5% coming into the caucus, and he lost by 4%. That's a huge swing, and it means that many of his supporters are all talk but no vote -- something many Trump detractors have been saying all along.

If Al Gore could have seen the future, imagine how many thousands of campaign workers he would have sent to Florida, just to get 600 votes!

[Dan Druff]

Also, Rubio was a huge success story today, despite finishing third.

Poll averages had Trump receiving 28.9% and Rubio 16.9% -- a 12 point differential.

Rubio was even conceding third place, and was just hoping it wasn't a total bloodbath.

Instead, while he did finish third, he was just 1.2% behind Trump -- and picked up the same number of delegates.

So Trump cruised into election day with a 12 point edge over Rubio in Iowa, and walked out tied. Ouch.

[MumblesBadly]

Also, Rubio was a huge success story today, despite finishing third.

Poll averages had Trump receiving 28.9% and Rubio 16.9% -- a 12 point differential.

Rubio was even conceding third place, and was just hoping it wasn't a total bloodbath.

Instead, while he did finish third, he was just 1.2% behind Trump -- and picked up the same number of delegates.

So Trump cruised into election day with a 12 point edge over Rubio in Iowa, and walked out tied. Ouch.

Agreed. Rubio did finish stronger than his lower general poll numbers suggested. Chalk it up to better organization?

But will he be able to translate that into strength in PRIMARY states? That is why South Carolina is so important. It doesn't have that quirky independentness of New Hampshire voters. It's much more of a conventional populace state, albeit more conservative.

[GrenadaRoger]

I'm going to come across as a bit of a douche but I really know more about this then anyone on this board by miles.

In order to get Trump to the numbers they are reporting they are basing turnout at 170,000 voters on Monday. No Iowa Caucus has had more than 120,000. When you weight the numbers more towards historical turnouts the numbers are more like 35% Cruz, 18% Trump, 16-18% Rubio. Now my common sense brain is telling me people are bailing on Trump left and right around Iowa based on no showing the debate.

Cruz has 12,000 Iowa volunteers on Monday. Think about that 10% of all the people voting are volunteering to assist the night of the caucus. That's more votes than most candidates will get and he has that in volunteers. The guy is doubling up on captains for the caucus locations.

It would probably require Trump to get 25,000 Republican registrations the night of the caucus that'd be adding 5% to the Republican Party in Iowa. An unheard of and impossible number.

Rubio is surging in Iowa and presumably that will carry forward into NH, especially if he finished second.

Lastly, by Tuesday Trump will be in full meltdown mode and most likely calling Iowans stupid, Republicans stupid, Cruz stupid, Rubio stupid and basically anyone and everyone in his path before he quits like a little bitch.

well, the total votes Republican were about 180,000 but Trump did not win...he finished a strong second although you had forecast him finishing third a little behind Rubio with a turnout of 100,000 - 120,000...

it seems that Trump's benefit by big turnout is there, but not as strong as you predicted...and i think you can credit him for helping to pull in a big turnout, more than 50% higher than ever before if your 120,000 previous max is correct

btw, Iowa turned out 1.5 million in the Presidential election 2012...so this caucus business involves only 1 out of 9 regular voters, thus i would suspect caucus votes are more from insider/party faithful than the general electorate...those caucus folks i would guess are less likely to support Trump...

and overall, i would think that if America did not have an election system designed to discourage voter participation, Trump would win strongly

given the above, Trump can spin the results his way and knock the shine off of Rubio and Cruz

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

Cruz now with an insurmountable 8-7 lead in the race to 1236. Trump likely to accept his humiliating defeat and drop out in the morning.

[anchordraw]

Cruz, during his speech tonight, said that he had 12,000 volunteers helping him in Iowa, get the word out and work phones, etc.


He received 51,496 votes


12K people to get 51K votes sounds terrible.

It sounds terrible, but it's worth it because of how influential the Iowa results can be.

This year Iowa is especially important for both parties, because we have a weird, atypical candidate on each side (Sanders and Trump).

I know that I was far more excited about the Iowa results than I have ever been before, where I would usually laugh it off as early and mostly meaningless. Here it mattered because it would establish or break momentum for the super-outsider candidates.

Tonight proved that Trump's poll numbers don't tell the whole story. He was shown by polls leading by 5% coming into the caucus, and he lost by 4%. That's a huge swing, and it means that many of his supporters are all talk but no vote -- something many Trump detractors have been saying all along.

If Al Gore could have seen the future, imagine how many thousands of campaign workers he would have sent to Florida, just to get 600 votes!

good point, and I'm sure in four years, people will be picking up homeless people in Iowa and taking them to the polls. But don't get me started on what Gore did in fl. He didn't just look at hanging chads, he knew the military vote was bad for him, so he got absentee votes from military thrown out as well. The military postal system does even use a date stamp, so he took over 1000 absentee votes and had them thrown out, even though they were sent on time.

Gore is no different than the corn pickers in Iowa, if you are over seas, serving your country, and you might vote republican, your vote is not welcome, but if you die for your country, thats ok. Fuck gore and anybody that is NOT willing to call out what he did, throwing out those votes.

[4Dragons]

Looks like Hillary is going to barely pull this out and save face.

If Bernie won Iowa (and he already had NH clinched), this 2-0 start would be a big momentum builder.

Now he's going to start fading, most likely, even if he loses by just a little (which is looking like the result).

I'm hoping this defeat for Trump will be the start of a slow collapse.

Iowa hasn't reflected the overall opinion of the rest of the country in decades. Why they needed to pander to those people first is really mind boggling. Trump will most likely crush NH.

[4Dragons]

So nobody has an apples to apples comparison of voter turnout for Dem vs Rep? Shades drawn.

Record turnout recorded at Iowa Republican caucuses

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/02/record-turnout-recorded-at-iowa-republican-caucuses.html

Republican voter turnout at the Iowa caucuses broke records Monday night, with the close race among Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and eventual winner Ted Cruz sparking intense interest across the state.


Roughly 182,000 Republican caucus-goers turned out, with nearly all precincts reporting, breaking the record of 122,000 in 2012.

About four in 10 Iowans said they were caucusing for the first time.


Signs that the 2016 turnout would break records began to emerge even before the balloting sites in Iowa’s 99 counties opened.
Lines formed outside the doors, then reports began trickling in about some Republican sites running out of registration forms and ballots and plans to extend hours to accommodate the crowds.


Democratic turnout was not available late Monday night. The party’s record is 240,000 in 2008.


However, the Democratic turnout at one site in Des Moines -- Iowa’s most populated city -- was three times larger than projected, with lines wrapping around the block.


Party officials predicted a crowd of 160. But 469 people arrived, compared to 402 in 2008. The officials had to switch to a larger venue and add an overflow room.


Young voters overwhelmingly backed Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to entrance polls.
More than 8 in 10 caucus-goers under 30 backed the Vermont independent, while Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton won the majority of voters over 45.


The Sanders-Clinton race was still too close to call late Monday night, too.

[TheXFactor]

Marco Rubio is now a greater threat to Trump than Cruz.

Trump needs to go after Rubio and expose him as a clueless young kid who has accomplished nothing as a senator and would do nothing as President.

The only reason that Cruz won in Iowa was because of his 12,000 volunteers and because it's a caucus instead of a primary.

[FPS_Russia]

Regardless of the latest polling data. My personal read is that Ted Cruz will win the (R) nomination. I really really hope I'm wrong, but tbh I can't see it any other way. I almost have a sixth sense when it comes to spotting candidates with right wing appeal.

In races at all levels, If I think a GOP candidate is remotely reasonable (Trump/Rubio) vs a GOP candidate that I think is scum of the Earth (Cruz). The scumbag takes it like every time, it's crazy. There's a decent chance Rubio's a world class scumbag and I just haven't seen it. Trump tho, he's toast imo.

So glad Romney didn't run.

[Pooh]

Rubio was the biggest winner last night by far. He's the one most likely to get the kasich, christie, bush voters once they fall by the wayside completely.

[Daly]

Rubio was the biggest winner last night by far. He's the one most likely to get the kasich, christie, bush voters once they fall by the wayside completely.

:

[drufdajewgod]

I think Trump may have finally lost one of his big gambles. He should have done the debate and the fundraiser the next night. Seems like there was a momentum shift there. To what extent? Wel keep watching to find out. Nice call on Iowa abrown.

[4Dragons]

lol