President 2016

[thesidedish]

[/SUB]]March 15 is the key date. That's when the winner takes all states begin and there are some biggies that first day. If Trump sweeps then it's over. Florida is that day. I predict an endorsement for Trump from the governor a few days to a week in advance.

Pretty much this

The door was opened last night by Trump massively underperforming but it's still only open a little bit.

you are nate silver man, how can u not see ur bias? Trumps odds to win president were +180 yesterday morning and are now +170. And I have not seen one pundit say last night was disappointing for Trump or that his momentum is slowing. Anybody with common sense that's following this election would say last night was a total wash for Trump regardless if cruz won a state he wasn't supposed to, that happens in every election. Quit trying to act like u know everything, pipe down until facts start supporting ur current bias opinion cuz u look like a nerd that gets C's in school.

[abrown83]

Pretty much this

The door was opened last night by Trump massively underperforming but it's still only open a little bit.

you are nate silver man, how can u not see ur bias? Trumps odds to win president were +180 yesterday morning and are now +170. And I have not seen one pundit say last night was disappointing for Trump or that his momentum is slowing. Anybody with common sense that's following this election would say last night was a total wash for Trump regardless if cruz won a state he wasn't supposed to, that happens in every election. Quit trying to act like u know everything, pipe down until facts start supporting ur current bias opinion cuz u look like a nerd that gets C's in school.

LoL Bias

Trump was favored to win 10 States

He won 7, and almost lost 2 more that most people thought he would win by 10%+.

Media narrative is bullshit they are group thinkers and are fucking horrendous at their jobs.


All that said, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win but he went from having the Republican nomination in the bag and being able to move on to Hillary, to the door opening a bit and probably needing to campaign into April now. Costing him probably another $25-$50 million.

[thesidedish]

you are nate silver man, how can u not see ur bias? Trumps odds to win president were +180 yesterday morning and are now +170. And I have not seen one pundit say last night was disappointing for Trump or that his momentum is slowing. Anybody with common sense that's following this election would say last night was a total wash for Trump regardless if cruz won a state he wasn't supposed to, that happens in every election. Quit trying to act like u know everything, pipe down until facts start supporting ur current bias opinion cuz u look like a nerd that gets C's in school.

LoL Bias

Trump was favored to win 10 States

He won 7, and almost lost 2 more that most people thought he would win by 10%+.

Media narrative is bullshit they are group thinkers and are fucking horrendous at their jobs.


All that said, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win but he went from having the Republican nomination in the bag and being able to move on to Hillary, to the door opening a bit and probably needing to campaign into April now. Costing him probably another $25-$50 million.

having the nomination in the bag was definitely in play, but probably not that realistic. During his victory speech after Nevada, it sounded like he was planning that he had a cpl months to go.

you are indeed being bias bud, last night was a total wash, we are right back where we were yesterday and if may have in fact firmly guaranteed Trump the nomination with all 5 still in. which means 2 wks from today its likely over for everybody else

[MumblesBadly]

LoL Bias

Trump was favored to win 10 States

He won 7, and almost lost 2 more that most people thought he would win by 10%+.

Media narrative is bullshit they are group thinkers and are fucking horrendous at their jobs.


All that said, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win but he went from having the Republican nomination in the bag and being able to move on to Hillary, to the door opening a bit and probably needing to campaign into April now. Costing him probably another $25-$50 million.

having the nomination in the bag was definitely in play, but probably not that realistic. During his victory speech after Nevada, it sounded like he was planning that he had a cpl months to go.

you are indeed being bias bud, last night was a total wash, we are right back where we were yesterday and if may have in fact firmly guaranteed Trump the nomination with all 5 still in. which means 2 wks from today its likely over for everybody else

I'm starting to think that Druff should give Marty a temporary unban if/when Trump gets a majority of the delegates per these races just so that Marty can make some "I f***ing told you so!" posts. (But, again, only temporary.)

[TheXFactor]

It's over for Rubio.

I don't know about that. He has the money and support to take it all the way to the convention and a pretty good shot of taking the nomination from Trump on the delegates' second ballot.

I ran the numbers on a delegate model and the possibility that Trump is denied the votes he needs to avoid a convention floor vote is a lot more likely than Trump getting the 1200 plus votes he needs to win the nomination outright. This becomes a near certainty if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida. Even then it can still be done even if Trump wins one of those states (I'm not sure if that's true if Trump wins both of them). Let's say Trump fails to win Ohio and Florida, in that case all Rubio or someone else needs to do is pick off a couple/few states like Minnesota (and Rubio already has one in the bag with Utah) and maybe somebody other than Trump needs to win California...maybe.

Plus, Rubio literally has nothing to lose. He's not running for reelection in the Senate so it's not like has to worry about saving his Senate seat or his political career (his political career is over if Trump wins the nomination). And even if Rubio fights all the way to the convention and loses or he fails to stop Trump from getting the outright win, there are gonna be a bunch of grateful establishment types with money who will reward him for "fighting the good fight to save the soul of the party" and hook him up with cushy lawyer and consultant gigs. Or he can get a job with Fox News ala Huckabee. The point is that losing a drawn out fight with Trump will have zero effect on his ability to clean up in the private sector post-election so why not go for it, especially with the Tump U trial set for July and Donald being required to testify at said trial.

The ONLY way it's over for Rubio is if the donations to his campaign and various super PACs dry up, and so far, there's no sign of that happening or Trump wins Ohio and Florida.

Not only is it over for Rubio.
It's over for Cruz, Kasich and Carson.
They can only hope to block Trump from getting enough delegates.

Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida. He will easily win these states.

Sen. leader Mitch McConnell is getting scared and hopefully he and other members of Congress will resign once President Trump takes office next year.

So far in this primary process, Republicans have gotten 3 million more votes than Democrats. Why? Because more people are voting for Trump. People are not turning out to vote for Bernie Sanders.

Trump will make America great again and make Hillary shut the fuck up.

[MumblesBadly]

I don't know about that. He has the money and support to take it all the way to the convention and a pretty good shot of taking the nomination from Trump on the delegates' second ballot.

I ran the numbers on a delegate model and the possibility that Trump is denied the votes he needs to avoid a convention floor vote is a lot more likely than Trump getting the 1200 plus votes he needs to win the nomination outright. This becomes a near certainty if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida. Even then it can still be done even if Trump wins one of those states (I'm not sure if that's true if Trump wins both of them). Let's say Trump fails to win Ohio and Florida, in that case all Rubio or someone else needs to do is pick off a couple/few states like Minnesota (and Rubio already has one in the bag with Utah) and maybe somebody other than Trump needs to win California...maybe.

Plus, Rubio literally has nothing to lose. He's not running for reelection in the Senate so it's not like has to worry about saving his Senate seat or his political career (his political career is over if Trump wins the nomination). And even if Rubio fights all the way to the convention and loses or he fails to stop Trump from getting the outright win, there are gonna be a bunch of grateful establishment types with money who will reward him for "fighting the good fight to save the soul of the party" and hook him up with cushy lawyer and consultant gigs. Or he can get a job with Fox News ala Huckabee. The point is that losing a drawn out fight with Trump will have zero effect on his ability to clean up in the private sector post-election so why not go for it, especially with the Tump U trial set for July and Donald being required to testify at said trial.

The ONLY way it's over for Rubio is if the donations to his campaign and various super PACs dry up, and so far, there's no sign of that happening or Trump wins Ohio and Florida.

Not only is it over for Rubio.
It's over for Cruz, Kasich and Carson.
They can only hope to block Trump from getting enough delegates.

Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida. He will easily win these states.

Sen. leader Mitch McConnell is getting scared and hopefully he and other members of Congress will resign once President Trump takes office next year.

So far in this primary process, Republicans have gotten 3 million more votes than Democrats. Why? Because more people are voting for Trump. People are not turning out to vote for Bernie Sanders.

Trump will make America great again and make Hillary shut the fuck up.

Sorry. The history of the Roman Empire supports the notion that embracing xenophobia is a clear sign of the start of the long slide to the dustbin of history.

[rum dick]

Umm yeah the whole plan now is for Trump to be prevented from getting the nomination outright and then taking it from him at the convention. I don't think the other candidates are saying or thinking otherwise (except for maybe cruz but he's just blowing smoke if he's really claiming he can get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention).


Anyhow:

"AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to secure nomination
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 03/02/16 11:17 AM EST

Despite Donald Trump's string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop him — with a little help from Marco Rubio.

A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump's problem. So far Trump has won only 46 percent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That's doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.

On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump's delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz's home state.

The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio's home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state's governor.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ap-delegate-count-trump-not-yet-on-track-to-secure-nomination-220121#ixzz41m6qD600"




AND factor in Rubio sticking around and him absolutely winning Utah and there you go.

[sonatine]

Umm yeah the whole plan now is for Trump to be prevented from getting the nomination outright and then taking it from him at the convention. I don't think the other candidates are saying or thinking otherwise (except for maybe cruz but he's just blowing smoke if he's really claiming he can get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention).


Anyhow:

"AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to secure nomination
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 03/02/16 11:17 AM EST

Despite Donald Trump's string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop him — with a little help from Marco Rubio.

A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump's problem. So far Trump has won only 46 percent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That's doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.

On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump's delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz's home state.

The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio's home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state's governor.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ap-delegate-count-trump-not-yet-on-track-to-secure-nomination-220121#ixzz41m6qD600"




AND factor in Rubio sticking around and him absolutely winning Utah and there you go.

Bookies are already paying of their Trump nom bets.

Making the conjecture above look all the more like desperate Republican shilling.

Not happy about it, just saying.

[thesidedish]

Not only is it over for Rubio.
It's over for Cruz, Kasich and Carson.
They can only hope to block Trump from getting enough delegates.

Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida. He will easily win these states.

Sen. leader Mitch McConnell is getting scared and hopefully he and other members of Congress will resign once President Trump takes office next year.

So far in this primary process, Republicans have gotten 3 million more votes than Democrats. Why? Because more people are voting for Trump. People are not turning out to vote for Bernie Sanders.

Trump will make America great again and make Hillary shut the fuck up.

Sorry. The history of the Roman Empire supports the notion that embracing xenophobia is a clear sign of the start of the long slide to the dustbin of history.

America is different tho, anybody with any brains/balls/ability to make great decisions got on a ship 100s of years ago and made the atlantic ocean voyage

[Sanlmar]

Umm yeah the whole plan now is for Trump to be prevented from getting the nomination outright and then taking it from him at the convention. I don't think the other candidates are saying or thinking otherwise (except for maybe cruz but he's just blowing smoke if he's really claiming he can get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention).


Anyhow:

"AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to secure nomination
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 03/02/16 11:17 AM EST

Despite Donald Trump's string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop him — with a little help from Marco Rubio.

A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump's problem. So far Trump has won only 46 percent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That's doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.

On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump's delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz's home state.

The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio's home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state's governor.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ap-delegate-count-trump-not-yet-on-track-to-secure-nomination-220121#ixzz41m6qD600"




AND factor in Rubio sticking around and him absolutely winning Utah and there you go.

It's interesting how nobody has any issue with the fuzzy algorithm that we use to select our next leader. No issue with the disconnect between vote count or states won and delegates.

[simpdog]

Umm yeah the whole plan now is for Trump to be prevented from getting the nomination outright and then taking it from him at the convention. I don't think the other candidates are saying or thinking otherwise (except for maybe cruz but he's just blowing smoke if he's really claiming he can get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention).


Anyhow:

"AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to secure nomination
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 03/02/16 11:17 AM EST

Despite Donald Trump's string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop him — with a little help from Marco Rubio.

A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump's problem. So far Trump has won only 46 percent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That's doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.

On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump's delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz's home state.

The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio's home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state's governor.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ap-delegate-count-trump-not-yet-on-track-to-secure-nomination-220121#ixzz41m6qD600"




AND factor in Rubio sticking around and him absolutely winning Utah and there you go.

It's interesting how nobody has any issue with the fuzzy algorithm that we use to select our next leader. No issue with the disconnect between vote count or states won and delegates.

Or the fact that they can change their minds later as long as Trump doesn't gain the majority before the convention. That's the thing that kills me the most.

Spend MILLIONS of dollars only to broker a deal after the fact in an anyone but Trump deal.

[Sanlmar]

It's interesting how nobody has any issue with the fuzzy algorithm that we use to select our next leader. No issue with the disconnect between vote count or states won and delegates.

Or the fact that they can change their minds later as long as Trump doesn't gain the majority before the convention. That's the thing that kills me the most.

Spend MILLIONS of dollars only to broker a deal after the fact in an anyone but Trump deal.

All the wars we fought to bring direct democracy to what we view as oppressed countries. We wanted to set up a democracy over there and see how it worked out before we tried it ourselves.

[sonatine]

Trump might be fucked.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...cause-of-trump

If Ben Stein is openly considering defecting, there is a literal army of centerist Republicans who have already decided to go this route.

[Pooh]

LoL Bias

Trump was favored to win 10 States

He won 7, and almost lost 2 more that most people thought he would win by 10%+.

Media narrative is bullshit they are group thinkers and are fucking horrendous at their jobs.


All that said, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win but he went from having the Republican nomination in the bag and being able to move on to Hillary, to the door opening a bit and probably needing to campaign into April now. Costing him probably another $25-$50 million.

having the nomination in the bag was definitely in play, but probably not that realistic. During his victory speech after Nevada, it sounded like he was planning that he had a cpl months to go.

you are indeed being bias bud, last night was a total wash, we are right back where we were yesterday and if may have in fact firmly guaranteed Trump the nomination with all 5 still in. which means 2 wks from today its likely over for everybody else

Keep in mind you are very biased for Trump and will neg rep anyone who opposes Trump. You need to relax and read other's opinions on here and respect them even if you don't agree with them.

[big dick]

this sidedish guy is a fucking moron

[Pooh]

Umm yeah the whole plan now is for Trump to be prevented from getting the nomination outright and then taking it from him at the convention. I don't think the other candidates are saying or thinking otherwise (except for maybe cruz but he's just blowing smoke if he's really claiming he can get enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention).


Anyhow:

"AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to secure nomination
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 03/02/16 11:17 AM EST

Despite Donald Trump's string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop him — with a little help from Marco Rubio.

A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump's problem. So far Trump has won only 46 percent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That's doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.

On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump's delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz's home state.

The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio's home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state's governor.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/ap-delegate-count-trump-not-yet-on-track-to-secure-nomination-220121#ixzz41m6qD600"




AND factor in Rubio sticking around and him absolutely winning Utah and there you go.

If you honestly believe they will take the nomination away from Trump at the convention then I recommend you put your life savings on Hilary to win the Presidency because Trump will 100% run third party if they do.

[Muck Ficon]

Romney is giving a speech tomorrow.....wonder what he has up his sleeve. Odds he announces he is running? He may have no chance of winning, he doesn't care, he's more about preventing Trump from winning.

[Sanlmar]

Trump might be fucked.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...cause-of-trump

If Ben Stein is openly considering defecting, there is a literal army of centerist Republicans who have already decided to go this route.

I haven't seen this sort of dry political wit since Art Buchwald

Funny stuff

[thesidedish]

having the nomination in the bag was definitely in play, but probably not that realistic. During his victory speech after Nevada, it sounded like he was planning that he had a cpl months to go.

you are indeed being bias bud, last night was a total wash, we are right back where we were yesterday and if may have in fact firmly guaranteed Trump the nomination with all 5 still in. which means 2 wks from today its likely over for everybody else

Keep in mind you are very biased for Trump and will neg rep anyone who opposes Trump. You need to relax and read other's opinions on here and respect them even if you don't agree with them.

why do I need to respect his opinion when he is blatantly disregarding factual #s and saying its all a fluke like Nate Silver. Guy's too out of touch/set in his ways to understand whats happening.

[DJ_Chaps]

Nailed dish.