States Which Went Republican in 2012 and Will Definitely Stay That Way in 2016
(number listed after each state indicates # of points Romney won by in 2012)
Alabama (22)
Alaska (14)
Arkansas (24)
Idaho (32)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (22)
Kentucky (23)
Louisiana (17)
Mississippi (12)
Montana (14)
Nebraska (21)
North Dakota (20)
Oklahoma (33)
South Carolina (10)
South Dakota (18)
Tennessee (20)
Texas (16)
Utah (48)
West Virginia (27)
Wyoming (41)
States Which Went Republican in 2012 and Will Probably Stay That Way in 2016
Missouri (9)
Arizona (9)
Georgia (8)
States Which Went Republican in 2012 and Could Easily Flip in 2016
North Carolina (2)
States Which Went Democrat in 2012 and Definitely Will Stay That Way in 2016
California (23)
Connecticut (18)
Delaware (19)
DC (83)
Hawaii (43)
Illinois (17)
Maine (16)
Maryland (26)
Massachusetts (23)
New Jersey (18)
New York (28)
Oregon (12)
Rhode Island (27)
Vermont (36)
Washington (15)
States Which Went Democrat in 2012 and Will Probably Stay That Way in 2016
Michigan (9)
Minnesota (8)
Pennsylvania (5)
Wisconsin (7)
New Mexico (10)
States Which Went Democrat in 2012 and Could Easily Flip in 2016
Colorado (5)
Florida (1)
Iowa (5)
Nevada (7)
New Hampshire (5)
Ohio (3)
Virginia (4)
So as you can see above, Republicans are pretty safe regarding keeping all "Romney" states this time around, as all finished with a 9-point margin or more in 2012 (with the exception of North Carolina), and that was with the Republican candidate LOSING overall.
The Dems are vulnerable in 7 states, and maybe 8 if you count Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, it was only a 5-point victory, but I see those as a tough 5 points to crack, whereas in Nevada, the 7 point deficit can be made up more easily IMO.
For Republicans to win this time around, they need to:
1) Keep North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
2) Take Ohio and Florida (18 and 29 votes, respectively)
3) Pick up 17 more electoral votes from the remaining close states
That's basically what the election comes down to, unless there are some surprises such as Pennsylvania going Republican or Missouri going Democrat. Republicans have their usual outside shot at Michigan/Minnesota/Wisconsin, as is talked about every year, but I don't see it happening for them.
Republicans should really be targeting Virginia, which has 13 votes.
Simply carrying every Romney state from 2012, and then taking Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire will beat Hillary.
That isn't trivial, but it's also not far-fetched.