Amaya stock CRASHES, blame put on strong US dollar

[Dan Druff]

Yesterday, Amaya (owner of Pokerstars) saw its stock fall from $23.56 to $15.99 on the NASDAQ, and even touching as low as $15.34 at one point. Overall, the company stock lost over 32% of value on Tuesday!

Below is an article where Amaya blames the strong US dollar for its stock price woes:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle27186220/

Note that this article was written when Amaya was still trading at $20.22, which was still a 52-week low for the stock!

Investment analysts at Canacord Genuity have rated Amaya as a "buy" at this point.

Amaya CEO David Baazov said this:

The general strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to certain foreign currencies, primarily the euro, has resulted in an approximate 19 per cent decline in the purchasing power of our customer base and has had a significant negative impact on our revenues, higher than we previously anticipated,

I don't know if I believe this.

Most of Pokerstars' clientele uses the Euro or GBP.

Here is the chart for the USD's strength versus the Euro, over the past year: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=EUR&view=1Y

Here is the chart for the USD's strength versus the GBP, over the past year:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=GBP&view=1Y

Notice both charts are fairly similar.

The dollar had a huge run-up in early January, hit a high in mid-March, and then retreated somewhat over the summer.

Then it started running back up in the last few weeks.

But the bottom line is that the dollar is worth LESS right now (compared to EUR/GBP) than it was during March-April, and overall is fairly close to where it was after the initial run up in January.

So how is Amaya only feeling this now, in November? Shouldn't they have been struggling in the early part of the year?

But here is the cold, hard fact regarding Amaya's projected 2015 results:

Amaya Inc. is reducing its revenue estimate for 2015 to a range of between $1.289-billion and $1.339-billion – a decline of about 13 per cent at the midpoint from the previous estimate.

So that's really the issue here. They estimated way higher, and now just broke the news that their revenue will be down 13% from where it was expected.

I still think the strong dollar thing is BS, as that would have been seen fairly quickly when it shot up in January, and wouldn't have taken until November to discover and report.

The decline in revenue also likely explains why they are engaging in so many changes in their business practices on Pokerstars, including degrading the top tiers of the VIP program.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

I don't know if I believe this.

Most of Pokerstars' clientele uses the Euro or GBP.

I definitely don't agree with this, there is limited game selection and variety in playing in those currencies on the client, I always play USD unless I'm trying to qualify to some Euro/UK-centric tournament.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

I don't know if I believe this.

Most of Pokerstars' clientele uses the Euro or GBP.

I definitely don't agree with this, there is limited game selection and variety in playing in those currencies on the client, I always play USD unless I'm trying to qualify to some Euro/UK-centric tournament.

Correction: Although to be fair the PokerStars client in Spain and France only uses EUROS, I'm assuming it's like that everywhere else where the currency is prominent in Europe.

[Dan Druff]

No, what they're trying to say is that their currency and expenses are mostly in USD, so deposits bring in fewer USD to them than before, yet their expenses remain rhe same.

So for example, when a fish deposits 1000 EUR, Pokerstars used to get $1250 from it (minus deposit fees), whereas now they only get $1070.

[jacosta24]

Amaya is a joke...PokerStars is in bad hands.

[Sanlmar]

Amaya is a joke...PokerStars is in bad hands.

I sense you are a player. Wonder what country.

It appears legislation worldwide is becoming a headache. Generally, the number of active players is declining.
The PStars story is supposed to be growth. The changes you dislike aren't in effect yet. The cross sell to casino & sports betting didn't hurt your precious poker. I can't fault their operation. Poker is waning and they need to grow in other ways.

I can fault the kid, Baazov, for not managing the earning expectations better. Still love this guy. From living on a park bench to spinning Amaya out of virtually nothing. He's younger than most of us.


Has PStars gone completely mobile? Can people in the free world (ROW) get all the offerings on their hand held device? I get the sense that you still have to use an old Wintel pc and that's a fail.

[Sanlmar]

The whole Forex story makes no sense.

I am also disappointed nobody got my CA "Gods currency" joke when I first posted this story last night.

Amaya reports earning in Canadian dollars and indeed that went down last year.

Somebody wrote me that their mobile apps suck. PStars was always about the beautiful software.

Billions of dollars in debt. They need just one more piece of bad news before this is worth gambling on again.

Edit: Oh, yeah. Rubio for President. Can't hide Druff.