Republican Debate

[abrown83]

Republican race is down to four main contenders.

Christie - Great in front of the camera. A much more moderate, establishment Republican. American Republicans could rally around him from the idea and stand point of he would destroy Hillary Clinton in debates. Would effectively use images of him and Obama in Presidential race to help win the swing vote.

Cruz - While to the moderates and the left he is an enemy, he is the smartest guy in the race. Argued cases in front of the Supreme Court, and would presumably pull a huge Hispanic vote. Organizationally he is light years ahead. Only candidate with staff in every county of the first three voting states. He's poised to pickup the Carson and Trump vote when/if they implode.

Rubio - Young, emotional and says all the right things. Vastly inexperienced and a poor manager of his own finances he literally KO'd Bush the other night. Has to be considered the front runner for the Republican establishment.

Trump - He needs to find a second and third issue to keep his supporters excited. Has put some work into a ground game in early states (is ahead of Rubio and Christie but way behind Cruz). I think there is part of the American public that would just love to see Trump debate Hillary and see what a Trump President would do. On the flip side the guy has a skin so thin that eventually he will totally implode or at least I presume he will.

__________________________

Candidates that have no shot

Bush - I literally can't find a Bush supporter in Iowa.

Fiorina - Had a good first two debates, not as good a third debate. She doesn't want to be President (she wants a book deal). The reason you know that is she has no real staff in any early states, and isn't making any grassroot efforts to build a ground game that will make her even competitive in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Carson - Evangelicals like him because he is a nice person, but he isn't ready for the big time. As candidates trim and people get serious about looking at who they are voting for, I think we will see Evangelicals shift to Cruz. Same general ideas, but Cruz is hardened and a better policy candidate.

Huckabee, Santorum, Jindal - They would need a hail mary like Cruz imploding to even have a 1% chance to get the nomination.

Kasich - Has the record, and was really liked by most Republicans but has been grumpy and shown he is way more liberal than the primary base.

Paul - Has one guy ever destroyed a built in base faster than Rand Paul? If I was his dad I would make the call and tell him to end it, so we don't have to continue to see him on tv at debates.

[4Dragons]

Republican race is down to four main contenders.

Christie - Great in front of the camera. A much more moderate, establishment Republican. American Republicans could rally around him from the idea and stand point of he would destroy Hillary Clinton in debates. Would effectively use images of him and Obama in Presidential race to help win the swing vote.

Cruz - While to the moderates and the left he is an enemy, he is the smartest guy in the race. Argued cases in front of the Supreme Court, and would presumably pull a huge Hispanic vote. Organizationally he is light years ahead. Only candidate with staff in every county of the first three voting states. He's poised to pickup the Carson and Trump vote when/if they implode.

Rubio - Young, emotional and says all the right things. Vastly inexperienced and a poor manager of his own finances he literally KO'd Bush the other night. Has to be considered the front runner for the Republican establishment.

Trump - He needs to find a second and third issue to keep his supporters excited. Has put some work into a ground game in early states (is ahead of Rubio and Christie but way behind Cruz). I think there is part of the American public that would just love to see Trump debate Hillary and see what a Trump President would do. On the flip side the guy has a skin so thin that eventually he will totally implode or at least I presume he will.

__________________________

Candidates that have no shot

Bush - I literally can't find a Bush supporter in Iowa.

Fiorina - Had a good first two debates, not as good a third debate. She doesn't want to be President (she wants a book deal). The reason you know that is she has no real staff in any early states, and isn't making any grassroot efforts to build a ground game that will make her even competitive in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Carson - Evangelicals like him because he is a nice person, but he isn't ready for the big time. As candidates trim and people get serious about looking at who they are voting for, I think we will see Evangelicals shift to Cruz. Same general ideas, but Cruz is hardened and a better policy candidate.

Huckabee, Santorum, Jindal - They would need a hail mary like Cruz imploding to even have a 1% chance to get the nomination.

Kasich - Has the record, and was really liked by most Republicans but has been grumpy and shown he is way more liberal than the primary base.

Paul - Has one guy ever destroyed a built in base faster than Rand Paul? If I was his dad I would make the call and tell him to end it, so we don't have to continue to see him on tv at debates.

Well, sorta, kinda.. I guess. Lemme try.

Bush - For whatever reason, the best Bush of the lot is not what anyone wants. Comes off as Presidential, but with overtones of 'hey you kids, get off my lawn!'

Fiorina - She don't need no stinking book deal. She has ran before for another office and she is serious about the one and only thing she knows about; power. She wants to be the one that corral's all of silicon valley and wall street under one queen sized tent - hers. If she got the seat, she would leave the richest President in history, guaransheed.

Carson - Nice guy. Not Presidential, not even a little bit. Guy is a great technician, not a world leader.

Huckabee, Santorum, Jindal - These are your run of the mill book deal / Fox News show low rent throwaways that only do it because they found people stupid enough to give them the money to run. What they don't spend, they get to keep.

Kasich - Tough call, good for a VP pick, Sec of State, head of some random alphabet agency, cabinet member. Smart, but comes off as like the fox in the henhouse that pretends to be asleep so the chickens get closer.

Paul - This is not the Dr. Paul you are looking for. Perhaps after this the good eye doctor will look back in retrospect and find that hindsight is 20/20.

Christie - Brash, gangsterish. Could easily be a Democrat or a Republican which only tells me one thing; he's doing it for himself, not anybody else and will say whatever to get whatever and to me at least he's pretty transparent.

Cruz - In the long run he may get the nomination, the sea change in the Republican party is deep as it is wide and he's been at the head of that ship. He stands for things and isn't malleable because of critics. It would be fun to see him as President, but I don't really care for him as a person and i'm not even sure why. Maybe he just sounds rehearsed?

Rubio - Smart, slick but doesn't scream 'Mr. President', more like 'Debate Coach'. Just comes off like a guy that would corner you in a hallway and berate you for a bad book review you left on Amazon.

Trump - Clint Eastwood, Sonny Bono, Al Franken, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan and Gopher from the Love Boat. Guy gets a lot of hate, but populists gonna populist. And of the names above, nobody has accomplished more on a personal level in the private sector. Not even close. And even those others listed were good enough, smart enough and gosh darnit, people liked them.

[TheXFactor]

[Jayjami]

There has been a sea change, and its not just for this political cycle.

The decades old media bias against conservatives has finally been so blatent that even Democratic, s can no longer use willful ignorence or insidious self interest to pretend it doesn't exist. That will last for a good long time.

Thanks to trump All rep/conservatives will no longer be afraid of them or try to appease there discrimination..

Republicans have picked up 700 seats on the state and municipal level that were once Democrat seats..

The African American vote is turning to trump..u will hear about that in the mainstream media when it becomes so prevalent they can no longer hide it..

Trump is noooo Ronald Reagan but he is picking up the "reagan Democrats , the independent, s and even non progressive liberals..

I don't know Boys and girls but even if he doesn't win he at least has brought a truly American agenda for the masses to benefit " equally " for the foreseeable future and elections to come..

Originally Posted by thesparten View Post
If he becomes speaker!!! I thesparten wil never make another political post on pfa...

[Dan Druff]

Good analyses above from abrown and 4Dragons.

Ignoring electability, I see Bush as the best choice. He's smarter and more Presidential than his brother, and most of what he says makes sense.

Yeah, yeah, I know the "Bush is the establishment candidate" argument, blah blah, but we've had a non-establishment President since 2009 and you see where that has gotten us. Outsider does not always equal better choice.

But Bush just isn't very good at campaigning or debating. Doesn't come off as forceful or confident, and in fact seems to give the appearance of not really wanting it that much. He's going to be gone from the race soon enough.

Marco Rubio seems too young. He's 44 -- just a few months younger than Ted Cruz -- but he looks young for his age, which in this case isn't a good thing. He doesn't have a lot of blatant minuses, and he will pick up some of that elusive hispanic vote. Agree with abrown that he gives off the aura of inexperience. He would hand all-important Florida to the Republicans, though. Might make a good VP candidate.

Ted Cruz is also young, but doesn't come off that way as Rubio does. However, he can come off a bit weird/creepy, with a constant look on his face like he's plotting something evil in the back of his head. Also might be too conservative to win the general election.

I don't see Trump winning the general election. Very possible he wins the primary (in fact he's the front runner at the moment, and not just in polling numbers), but I think mainstream America will be too nervous picturing him as President. Electing a guy President and getting lols at his debate/interview antics are two very different things. If he loses the nomination, hopefully he sticks to his word and supports the Republican candidate, and doesn't run as an independent. If he does go third part, the Republicans are fucked.

Chris Christie may have scored with some zingers at the debate, but I don't think it will revive his campaign. Bad debates can sink a candidate, but good debates don't tend to pick them up from the floor.

I disagree with abrown that Fiorina is done. I think she still has a reasonable shot, and her mediocre debate won't really hurt much, as hardly anyone is even talking about her debate performance right now. She might have the best shot against Hillary, because the automatic female vote will no longer exist. However, her record at HP might become a real problem, and she's not very likable (then again, neither is Hillary).

Funny that nobody is making a big deal about age this election. Ronald Reagan was (and still is) the oldest non-incumbent President ever elected. He was 69 and 9 months on election day in 1980. At the time, there was so much talk about his age.

However, Hillary will also be 69 on election day 2016, and Trump will be 70! I have yet to see much age discussion, perhaps because they don't come off as old as Reagan did at the time.

Age really is a factor, though. Aside from the higher risk of death during their term, there are other health concerns that can interfere with the job. As much as I liked Reagan, I do believe that he was showing signs of early Alzheimers toward the end of his second term. That wasn't his fault, but it was happening nonetheless, and the fact that he was in office until almost age 78 was the reason for it.

Anyway, I'm just really hoping it's not Trump versus Hillary or Christie versus Hillary.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Don't count out all the old muff divers like Delaware that are voting for Bush.

[abrown83]

Good analyses above from abrown and 4Dragons.

I disagree with abrown that Fiorina is done. I think she still has a reasonable shot, and her mediocre debate won't really hurt much, as hardly anyone is even talking about her debate performance right now. She might have the best shot against Hillary, because the automatic female vote will no longer exist. However, her record at HP might become a real problem, and she's not very likable (then again, neither is Hillary).

If you aren't hiring staff in early states, you are either not serious about winning or you are the worst and most inept politician of all time.

So take your pick with her, but she is done.

[sonatine]

There are quite a few moderate/centerist Republicans who will vote for Hilary against Fiorina because Fiorina is super duper holy shit wow anti-choice, to the point where she wants Roe v Wade overturned.

What Democrats of any gender are going to vote for Fiorina against Hils?

Hilary could show up for the debates and quietly knit through every question and still body Fiorina.

[Pooh]

Druff, get off the Bush bandwagon for christ's sake you're starting to look like a real dumbass. Only reason you like the guy is because of his last name. Guy brings absolutely zilch to the table. You basically wrote all his weaknesses. He is not electable period.

Abrown nailed it with all due respect. Cruz and Trump. One or the other or better even both. Christie is a non starter with his two percent.

[Sloppy Joe]

Assuming Bush is done, the only viable GOP candidate to beat Hillary imo is Rubio.

I admittedly know next to nothing about what the polls are saying, but common sense usually prevails.

Carson has zero chance. Trump minus bluster.

Cruz appeals to 0.0% of moderates, and would never be elected against any Democrat. If he wins, game over.

The Trump thing has been funny but hopefully will fizzle out. It's amazing that he has lasted so long, but common sense will hopefully prevail.

Like McCain and Romney, Rubio is the middle of the road candidate that everyone will have to back because the GOP is too splintered. And he might win, too.

[TheXFactor]

Ben Carson has been the only candidate "surging" in the polls because of the evangelical voters.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio may have done well in the last debate but it isn't going to matter. Even being Vice President is doubtful for them.

Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich should drop out immediately. The dream is over.

[4Dragons]

The Trump thing has been funny but hopefully will fizzle out. It's amazing that he has lasted so long, but common sense will hopefully prevail.

Ok then, i'll ask it; why do you think that Trump is ahead in the polls? Moreover, Trump, Carson and Fiorina? The 'common' sense seems to have escaped some.

[ToasterOven]

The Trump thing has been funny but hopefully will fizzle out. It's amazing that he has lasted so long, but common sense will hopefully prevail.

Ok then, i'll ask it; why do you think that Trump is ahead in the polls? Moreover, Trump, Carson and Fiorina? The 'common' sense seems to have escaped some.

All forms of conservative media have been preaching that elected leaders have let the movement down. Radio, internet, fox pound that point home everyday. The funniest part of the election so far has been the elite Republican pearl clutching about not being able to figure the electorate out. Somehow they thought that stoking anger wasn't going to come back on them eventually.

[Sloppy Joe]

Ok then, i'll ask it; why do you think that Trump is ahead in the polls? Moreover, Trump, Carson and Fiorina? The 'common' sense seems to have escaped some.

All forms of conservative media have been preaching that elected leaders have let the movement down. Radio, internet, fox pound that point home everyday. The funniest part of the election so far has been the elite Republican pearl clutching about not being able to figure the electorate out. Somehow they thought that stoking anger wasn't going to come back on them eventually.

Basically this. But I hope/think that cooler heads eventually prevail.

I would probably vote Republican if not for the religious tilt of most of the party. As cool as it may seem to back an outsider (regardless of party), the thought of someone like Trump/Carson being the leader of the free world terrifies me.

Trump has been great for the LOL's but 10 seconds of listening to him speak should be enough to make anyone run for cover.

[Daly]

Don't kid yourself. These guys have the "electorate" figured out just fine. Unfortunately "the electorate" they are pandering too for the most part are the registered republicans who will vote the primary. That's why Hickabee, Cruz et al can hang in there as they will always pick up a big hunk of religious votes.

The problem is that same candidate can't win the general, or even come close. That's why us conservative leaning folks are fucked. Shit I agree with Cruz/Huckabee on more things than Clinton and I'm not sure i could support them.

[thesparten]

There are quite a few moderate/centerist Republicans who will vote for Hilary against Fiorina because Fiorina is super duper holy shit wow anti-choice, to the point where she wants Roe v Wade overturned.

What Democrats of any gender are going to vote for Fiorina against Hils?

Hilary could show up for the debates and quietly knit through every question and still body Fiorina.

I forgot the killing babies is a good thing crowd..

[sonatine]

Shit I agree with Cruz/Huckabee on more things than Clinton and I'm not sure i could support them.

And this is exactly why the Koch bros are going on a hail mary PR crusade to undo everything they've been financing for like 10 years.

[MumblesBadly]

Assuming Bush is done, the only viable GOP candidate to beat Hillary imo is Rubio.

I admittedly know next to nothing about what the polls are saying, but common sense usually prevails.

Carson has zero chance. Trump minus bluster.

Cruz appeals to 0.0% of moderates, and would never be elected against any Democrat. If he wins, game over.

The Trump thing has been funny but hopefully will fizzle out. It's amazing that he has lasted so long, but common sense will hopefully prevail.

Like McCain and Romney, Rubio is the middle of the road candidate that everyone will have to back because the GOP is too splintered. And he might win, too.

I agree with most of this, except to me Rubio seems like a manipulatable cypher.

[4Dragons]

So why did they treat the Republican candidates in this fashion and the Democrats with complete softball bullshit? SFrigged, worse than UB.

Because Democratic candidates don't say stupid shit like we're going to build a wall, and I'm going to charge a 10% flat tax, or I'm going to round up 11 million people and send them back to Mexico, or literally calling another person running ugly... It's hard to take them seriously, but it's their job as moderators to do so.

You're right, creating a problem and then offering to fix the problem is the land of the Dems.

[ToasterOven]

The saddest thing for me is Rand Paul. He could have separated himself, but it appears like he didn't want to put the effort in this time around. Besides being a waffler, he lacks his father's passion and drive. It would have been nice to have an outspoken critic of the American empire in the Republican field, otherwise dominated by candidates that endorse GWB foreign policy.