PFA DFS Experiment

[garrett]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

[Hockey Guy]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

Seriously, you can't make this shit up.

 

Or maybe you can

 

I'm looking at you sonatine.

[BHS]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

What?? You min cashed once and the experiment is still down like 50 bucks overall. I'm too hungover for this and you're starting to annoy me. Are you saying you would you like to conclude the experiment, Garrett?

[Hockey Guy]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

What?? You min cashed once and the experiment is still down like 50 bucks overall. I'm too hungover for this and you're starting to annoy me. Are you saying you would you like to conclude the experiment, Garrett?

& he implied that you're a scammer, so there is that.

[WillieMcFML]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

you won six whole dollars and are still down overall

you can't be a real person

of all the fucked up characters that have came and went on these sites, you sir take the cake

clinically delusional

[garrett]

Its funny how your tone changed once I started winning.

Keep your money, I honestly don't want it

you won six whole dollars and are still down overall

you can't be a real person

of all the fucked up characters that have came and went on these sites, you sir take the cake

clinically delusional

actually i'm not down overall

I was in Vegas and sat out a week, if you really want to make a profit lets flip our strategy!

HEADSHOT only wants to try and, WIN, a small buy in big field. And I get it, its low risk/high reward.

HEADSHOT is very smart, so ill keep plugging big field l.u's, not HU/3/5/10s

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

408garrett should be in a anti-suicide smock 24/7. Get yourself some help, garre. BPD is no joke.

[BHS]

What?? You min cashed once and the experiment is still down like 50 bucks overall. I'm too hungover for this and you're starting to annoy me. Are you saying you would you like to conclude the experiment, Garrett?

& he implied that you're a scammer, so there is that.

Lovely..

Jesus what an idiot.

[garrett]

Harvey/Kashmir

Sucre
Ike Davis
Louis Valbuena
Nolan Areando
Nick Ahmed
Charlie Blackmon
A.J Pollock
Mike Trout

[SrslySirius]

Hot dog, I cashed in a lineup! Ol' Garrett finally caught his big break. I'm gonna be eating food tonight! How many more lineups can I put you down for? A lot? Please say a lot, I need this... No, please you gotta help ol' Garrett, whats it gonna take to keep you on the phone? Dance for you? But you wouldn't even see it.. y..allright, I'm a' dancing.

[handicapme]

o.k and sorry for getting out of the context of the thread. So let's get back on track.

What makes you think 'Phil Ivey' ohhh, the great one, has any ability beyond anyone else who has put forth the years and effort into understand a 52 card deck, divided by 4 suits, 13 per.

He doesn't have some magical like, unimaginable (non human) abilities. He loses just like everyone else. Variance is built into a 52 deck of cards.

Until you understand just because someone brings a 'big name' to the table, that doesn't ever change the pure mathematics built into a 52 card deck.

I never talked some of this but you obviously need to hear it, fanboy.

Real talk fuck face, I shit on you every chance I get but I'm going to honestly ask you a serious question here and hope you give a serious answer.

If you are so good "world class", why can't you save up a roll from shining the floors for a few months, try and get a job at the deli or something, then grind 1-2/2-5 nl/ohama on your free time? The 1/2-2/5nl games at borgata/parx/hardrock are beatable for even a casual play.

Also follow up question if you are so good at DFS, why can you not use winnings from this to fund your bankroll?

You seem to have glossed this over Garrett

[BHS]

Draftkings has a $3 MLB contest tonight where 1st is 100k.. Here are the 2 filthy lotto tickets I slapped together..

[jsearles22]

Draftkings has a $3 MLB contest tonight where 1st is 100k.. Here are the 2 filthy lotto tickets I slapped together..

FUCK! I had no idea. Good thing you posted this after the fucking contest was closed.............

[herbertstemple]

Trying this line up for the last 3 games today. 50 entry 50/50. Thinking the Cincy/Pit game will be high scoring.

Is it just me or does DraftKings charge a stout juice?

[garrett]

NASCAR (Draftkings)

So let switch 'gears' here a little and go a different direction for a minute.

Finding an 'edge' in DFS (legitimately) is no different than anything else. One way I know people have done this in the past is by learning to play other sports that are deep/liquid that are NEW. So in most cases people haven't really had a chance to learn it let alone perfect it yet.

One of the more widely thought of as best DFS players is CSURam88. I read a piece where he stated he loved college basketball (CBB) a few years back and grinded it hard because it was so new, and in CBB unlike NBA there's much more limited information then in NBA, where its very easy to find injury news and tons of stats. This is probably what separated him from many other people early on, while also really being good.

So whats a new sport not everyone knows or understands that one could presumably get a good edge in and possibly a nice bink, NASCAR. Draftkings recently introduced NASCAR, a sport which on the surface being so new, and not probably overly well known to the masses who actively participate in DFS, is a decent place to plug a few buy ins if you do know a lot about it. So let's leave MLB alone for a minute since this is a DFS experiment thread and focus on NASCAR a bit.

I'll crosspost some observations of mine and some things about the scoring and such here to get the ideas flowing. Take it for what you will, but these are the spots you can arguably get an edge, where it's gonna be much more difficult in MLB for example where the variance is huge and the multi entry element destroys lots of the little fish like us's chances.

[garrett]

(Keep in mind this is a few weeks old, so from a race weeks ago but relevant)

Nascar is a great addition to DFS. Just a HU because previous posters were wondering how they had drivers who finished in the top 15, yet people who won had drivers in lesser positions and actually got more points total.


You get points for drivers who not only run the fastest/most laps (each time) but also for Place Differential (= +/- 1 PTs) as well as Pass differential ( +/- .25)

Place differential is weighted extremely heavy on Draftkings so it's extra important to factor in and understand when choosing drivers. Place differential is a Driver who advances or loses their position from where they started the race to where they finish the race. And it is heavily weighted in the scoring at +/- 1pt.

So basically the optimal situation would be to have a good driver, from a good team in a fast car, starting from the middle to back of the field. Say 30th for example, and they finish 3rd you would get +27 pts (place differential), +31 (3rd place), + laps led/fastest lap bonuses/Pass differential.

So to a reach a high bar you need to understand and factor this into who you pick and why. A driver who ends up in the back of the field, which could happen for a variety of reasons and not necc bc they are slow, like a blown motor, penalty or engine change can actually be the optimal flyer/plug in NAS.



Last weekend at Charlotte Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth are a good example

Kahne started 33rd and finished 12th scoring = 58.5

21 Place Diff, 4 Pass Diff, 9 Fastest Laps, 1 12th

Matt Kenseth Pole started 1st and finished 4th scoring = 52.25

-3 Place Diff, -6 Pass Diff, 27 Laps Led, 20 Fastest Laps, 1 4th



So even though Matt Kenseth started 1st did well, finished 4th he still didn't score as many point as Kahne who came from the back and picked up the heavily weighted place differential points even though he only finished 12th.

So in this new NASCAR it's real important to know its not optimal to be picking drivers who just start up front and have a fast car necessarily.

To increase your bar/expectation you actually need to find the middling to back of pack good driver in a fast car and on a good team who runs to the front, plus gets some bonus points for laps led/fastest laps etc. Even if they don't win and just finish 12th like Kasey Kahne did they will still score more points than Kenseth did, who started 1st finished 4th.

It's all new to everyone but I think thats very, very important for people truly trying to get an edge on the casual NASCAR participant. So factor that in when making your NASCAR lineups.

Hope that helps and was not confusing.

gl

[garrett]

Today's race is Sonoma California. A road course.

Road courses present an entirely different set of circumstances where the driver matters more than the horsepower unlike at superspeedways where horsepower and aero is massive. Certain drivers are much better than others at road courses, and they often are not the big household names most people think of when they think of NASCAR.

Good example the pole sitter is A.J Allmendinger (8300) who is VERY cheap. Considering his low price, being on the pole/fastest car his owned percentage is going to be high. Which also means the people who run the Allmendinger lineups will often then stack the 'top drivers' as well. Will this strat work maybe, maybe not.

If many combos go Allmendinger/Harvick/r/y/z etc and Allmendinger crashes, or blows up, guess what every combo without the highly owned/cheap allmendinger are going to catapult all of them.

This presents a very interesting set of circumstances, but Dinger is decent on road courses so given his low price/fast car/pole position its a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Polarized.

The optimal play is probably both both some Dinger lineups and non Dinger lineups.

[BHS]

From now on Garrett will be in charge of tracking his lineups results - 5 or so tries left to take home the big score. We're in the $3 MLB $18K Moonshot for the late games only today. 1st is 1k, contest will have 6899 entrants. Here is the lineup..



#LFG

[Hockey Guy]

From now on Garrett will be in charge of tracking his lineups results - 5 or so tries left to take home the big score. We're in the $3 MLB $18K Moonshot for the late games only today. 1st is 1k, contest will have 6899 entrants. Here is the lineup..



#LFG

Hard to believe that you're even continuing with this after garrett called you a scammer.

Good luck.

[BHS]

Hard to believe that you're even continuing with this after garrett called you a scammer.

Good luck.

Lol Garrett (while admittedly under the influence of drugs/alcohol) had a minor freak out that day. While he is prone to go off the handle at times, accusing me, the guy who offered to bankroll the experiment of a scam (after losing at least 50 bucks when the best we've done is a min-cash) is barely worth a shoulder shrug. He apologized privately and of course there is no merit to his claims.

Regardless, I hope Garrett picks out a lineup that wins the big bucks and the WP gets some money from it. We're probably 6/10 tries into this or so..

Today's lineup was a brick btw -