So how much did your backers profit on this one?
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So how much did your backers profit on this one?
I am the last one to advocate folding until after the money bubble -- especially when the money bubble is "only" $2700 (it's a lot tougher to be cavalier about it when it's something like $20k).
However, at some point it's also wise to realize that your goose is probably cooked, and keep that in mind as you play when the bubble nears.
In this case:
1) I probably had a poor table image because I hadn't won any hands besides blind-steals in my entire tenure at that table.
2) Everyone knew I was the shortest stack, and in fact commented on it.
3) People were demonstrating a willingness to call off with marginal hands to much bigger stacks than mine, so it's not like I'd repeatedly be stealing blinds from scared money.
4) Players were dropping at breakneck speed, partially because the staff was afraid to go "hand for hand" and waste too much time, so they literally waited until 2 before the bubble before doing so. This was the fastest I'd ever seen players drop off near the bubble, by a wide margin. The lack of hand-for-hand created a psychological environment where it appeared we weren't as close as we were to the bubble.
Now, that's not to say I was open-folding AQ.
I open-shoved all-in three times while we were near the bubble:
The first was obvious. I had AK, and it folded to my SB. The BB had garbage and folded.
The second was also pretty obvious. I had KQ in the cutoff, and it folded to me. I shoved, and there were two quick folds.
The last one I had 98 suited -- a poor hand to run out an all-in showdown after a preflop call. I was one earlier than the cutoff, and I shoved. The button, who was also short stacked, agonized for a good 3 minutes before letting it go. The BB also thought about calling, but ultimately folded after about 45 seconds of thinking.
About 10-15 minutes after that, the bubble burst.
I shoved with K3o in the cutoff at my new table, and the BB flashed A2 before folding.
My next shove -- A4 spades UTG with about 18k at the 800/1600/200 level, met an unfortunate TT, but had outs when the flop was Q64 with one spade. A second spade hit the turn, but a brick river put an end to my tournament.
I did have two moments very late (near the bubble) that easily could have busted me out of the money. In one, I was saved by circumstance. In the other, I was saved by my own decision making.
In the first one, I had J9o in the cutoff, and it folded to me. I was semi-short stacked but not short enough to open-shove at this point. I opened to a 2.5x raise, and the button examined my stack closely, seemed to be ready to re-raise, but just called. At that moment, I knew he probably had something big and would check-fold if I missed. The BB, a guy in his 50s who was generally tight but seemed to like to shove from the BB, went all-in. Obviously I tossed the J9, and the button snap-called and flipped over aces. The BB showed 44. The flop came 9-6-3. The button was horrified when a 4 hit the river. Had the BB just flatted the 44, I would have gone all-in on the flop, the button would have called with aces, the 44 would have folded, and I would have busted.
In the second one, I was quite short stacked (about 14.5k) a little bit later, and a new player (a 50-ish white guy) opened UTG for something like 2400. I believe the blinds were 500/1000/200 at that point. I was next to act, and found KdQd. Many people would shove here, but I had a bad feeling. While this player had just joined the table, he didn't have the look of someone who would raise UTG with light holdings. I felt that a shove would likely be called and I'd very possibly be dominated (AK) or severely dominated (KK/AA). At the same time, I didn't want to fold the KQ suited, either. I chose an unusual position of just calling, and folding the flop if I missed. Another guy flatted on the button. Flop came all low like 8-6-2. UTG raiser checked, I checked, button bet like 3500, UTG check-raised to about 10k, I folded, button agonized for a long time and folded. I'm pretty sure UTG hit big (or already had a big hand like AA) and was trapping, and also would have called my raise pre. So I would have likely busted there had I shoved with the KdQd, but instead was left with 12200 -- my low point, but not crippled -- and we went on break. 81 players remained 'til the bubble, but thanks to those three shoves described earlier, I made the money.
Keep in mind that I'm the same guy who played out 4 hands at the $5000 Limit event last year when I could have easily folded and made the money (top 18) for a minimum of $11k. Instead, I chose to play out those good hands because I wanted to accumulate chips and hopefully win my second bracelet. Unfortunately, I lost all 4 and busted 19th.
In any case, I felt my best play under these circumstances was to shove in obvious shove spots -- and even the not-completely-obvious (but still correct) 98-suited one, but not to overdo it. Given the huge obstacles to overcome to finish in a high-cashing position at that point, I felt it was wiser to not play scared on the bubble, but not to throw caution to the wind, either.
I will post about it in the backer thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
I don't blame Pokernews for not knowing me anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by anonamoose
I don't play tournaments outside of the WSOP, and my only significant finish since 2009 was the 2010 88th place at the Main Event -- and even there I did it kind of quietly and was never the focus of the action.
Most of the Pokernews reporters are young kids who were still in high school when I had my big run in 2005.
Today brought what I can best call an average result.
I came in with moderately above average chips, and needed about 56% of the field to bust ahead of me to cash.
62.5% of the field busted ahead of me, so indeed I cashed, but not large.
Keep in mind that I had a hard time winning any sizable pots. I won a decent 13k-ish pot (half being my money) with AA vs AK yesterday, but never won another pot above 10k before or after that, and won just one very small all-in-call hand after that -- busting a TINY stack of like 2200. The fact that I cashed under those circumstances is pretty good, IMO.
On the "good luck" side of things, I didn't have any coolers. No set-over-set. No draw catching up and beating me. No KK vs AA. So I both lost and won small pots throughout the tournament, which was conducive to cashing but not to running deep.
Gotta flash that bracelet Druff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI don't blame Pokernews for not knowing me anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by anonamoose
I don't play tournaments outside of the WSOP, and my only significant finish since 2009 was the 2010 88th place at the Main Event -- and even there I did it kind of quietly and was never the focus of the action.
Most of the Pokernews reporters are young kids who were still in high school when I had my big run in 2005.
But not even just with you, just looking at the overall quality and frequency of the reports has been extremely fail.
If druff didn't rock the bracelet I would be plum surprised
Not a fan of shoving 11bb UTG with A4 suited.
Not saying its totally the wrong play but would prefer to wait for the button with 9/10bb and hope to find a better spot.
I always feel very much alive with 10 bigs, regardless of the tournament average.
+1, When I first seen the tweet I was thinking druff must have had 5-8 BB left, Obv in later position un opened pot thats a fine shove not UTGQuote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud
You have to realize that the cost per round was 4200, so while I did have 11 BB, my M was only slightly over 4.
After the next 2 hands (SB/BB), I would be down to just 9.5 BB. Yes I could have taken my chances and hoped for a shoving opportunity on or near the button, but if I didn't get one (which is very possible, with people opening fairly often pre), then I would be forced to either shove with absolute garbage UTG or wait another round and get to where I have very little fold equity (and would still be very short even if I won). Both of those options seemed unpalatable to me, so I went with the A4.
I decided that the A4 suited might be my best chance, even though I hated doing it, since it was UTG and it's likely drawing to 3 outs (plus the small percentage of the time it makes flushes and straights). You also get called by KQ and QJ at times, but obviously when you're called you hate it. I thought the play was right because everyone folds a fair amount of time, and I still win 33% of the time against hands like TT. If someone had opened in front of me (which I know is impossible UTG, but let's say I had it in late position), I don't even hesitate to put it in the muck.
"The last one I had 98 suited -- a poor hand to run out an all-in showdown after a preflop call. I was one earlier than the cutoff, and I shoved. The button, who was also short stacked, agonized for a good 3 minutes before letting it go. The BB also thought about calling, but ultimately folded after about 45 seconds of thinking."
http://timenewsfeed.files.wordpress....5&h=320&crop=1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I absolutely get all the pros and cons of your play.
Your biggest con is the A4. I can think of several worse hands than A4 that you would be better off shoving in that spot. Barring a loose QK call, EVERYTHING else totally dominates you.
Many short stacks panic way to early in tournament play and it's very profitable to snap them off or to isolate them with light holdings in many spots.
Even if you suck up the next blinds & antes hit, you are still only 2 double ups from being way above average stack and in great shape.
And yes you might end up in a far worse spot by waiting another round and end up wishing you shoved that A4. But long term profitability demands that you SNAP fold that A4 every single time in your situation.
Ask the top 50 NLH players in the world and I'd be amazed if all 50 didn't say that folding in your spot was the correct play.
A4 UTG Shove with M<5 is standard. Blinding down to M<5 in the first place waiting to min cash is the issue.
But it was suited.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the FraudQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I absolutely get all the pros and cons of your play.
Your biggest con is the A4. I can think of several worse hands than A4 that you would be better off shoving in that spot. Barring a loose QK call, EVERYTHING else totally dominates you.
Many short stacks panic way to early in tournament play and it's very profitable to snap them off or to isolate them with light holdings in many spots.
Even if you suck up the next blinds & antes hit, you are still only 2 double ups from being way above average stack and in great shape.
And yes you might end up in a far worse spot by waiting another round and end up wishing you shoved that A4. But long term profitability demands that you SNAP fold that A4 every single time in your situation.
Ask the top 50 NLH players in the world and I'd be amazed if all 50 didn't say that folding in your spot was the correct play.
I disagree shoving that hand into the field is standard, When you get called you are crushed but agree 100% blinding down in the first place is the real issue, I also know sitting there in druff's spot picking up a4 suited after looking at junk for hours its hard to fold the hand but I would rather ship almost any suited connectors in a better spot then a4 into the fieldQuote:
Originally Posted by Deal
4 BET light every now and then don't let the kids run you over, Good job on cashing 1st eventQuote:
Originally Posted by WSOP Twitter Update
If he folds there he is in the BB next hand with a stack size that requires him to call with any 2 cards next hand. As it is he should get called with QT from the BB if 78 doesn't shove from the button with a stack. It doesn't matter if you get called with a dominating hand, that is the risk you take and it will happen 25-30% of the time but not the other 70-75. You can't wait another round, you have barely any fold equity as it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETI disagree shoving that hand into the field is standard, When you get called you are crushed but agree 100% blinding down in the first place is the real issue, I also know sitting there in druff's spot picking up a4 suited after looking at junk for hours its hard to fold the hand but I would rather ship almost any suited connectors in a better spot then a4 into the fieldQuote:
Originally Posted by Deal
So many donks determine ranges based on how many BB they have when ante's and other stack sizes are in play. It's like trying to predict how far you can go on $20 of gas without knowing the price per gallon or the vehicle you have to drive.
Anyhow, this isn't a strategy forum. If you believe it's a fold then good luck to you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DealIf he folds there he is in the BB next hand with a stack size that requires him to call with any 2 cards next hand. As it is he should get called with QT from the BB if 78 doesn't shove from the button with a stack. It doesn't matter if you get called with a dominating hand, that is the risk you take and it will happen 25-30% of the time but not the other 70-75. You can't wait another round, you have barely any fold equity as it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
So many donks determine ranges based on how many BB they have when ante's and other stack sizes are in play. It's like trying to predict how far you can go on $20 of gas without knowing the price per gallon or the vehicle you have to drive.
Anyhow, this isn't a strategy forum. If you believe it's a fold then good luck to you.
If he folds the A4 he's in the big blind next hand with a full 10bb behind and far from committed to calling off any 2.
I think it's super standard to fold that spot.
Maybe druff could ask some NL regs that he knows in Vegas for some more feedback.
Seriously? You base your decision on how many BB's he has without any consideration to ante's? With 10bb and no ante's you can plan to see like 60+ more hands. With ante's it is only 30 with FE gone in 10. Just for fun consider him folding now and someone that has him covered shoving next hand. What is his calling range? #pokerstove The ante's make a huge difference at a full table. Effectively he has similar to 5BBs with no ante's and if the level jumps before he hits the blinds again it's more like 3BB and he 100% has to call any two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the FraudQuote:
Originally Posted by Deal
If he folds the A4 he's in the big blind next hand with a full 10bb behind and far from committed to calling off any 2.
I think it's super standard to fold that spot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DealSeriously? You base your decision on how many BB's he has without any consideration to ante's? With 10bb and no ante's you can plan to see like 60+ more hands. With ante's it is only 30 with FE gone in 10. Just for fun consider him folding now and someone that has him covered shoving next hand. What is his calling range? #pokerstove The ante's make a huge difference at a full table. Effectively he has similar to 5BBs with no ante's and if the level jumps before he hits the blinds again it's more like 3BB and he 100% has to call any two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud
Yes, I totally take into account the ante situation.
If he folds then his calling range from a shove into his big blind in the next hand is still based on who/why/when etc. And not stack size based.
One single double up is a complete game changer for Druff. But doing it with A4 utg in full ring is not a profitable play long term. Would keep my bullet in the hope of a better spot.
And fwiw I don't read up on any sort of strategy when it comes to poker, never have done. So I may well have been doing it wrong for all these years. But have played over 10k NLH mtt's and folding that A4 utg with the exact same stack scenario as Druff is just automatic for me personally.
Would be really interested in a successful NLH pro's take on the matter as I feel I'm 100% right, but happy to acknowledge I could be wrong also.