Quote:
Originally Posted by
gut
:scalir
Do you find those statements inconsistent?
I meant that enthusiasm for the candidate is less of a proxy for potential turnout that in most years because many people will be voting against Trump more than they will be voting for Biden.
I think Trump wins because in the few swing states that matter they will figure out how to disenfranchise people, prevent mail-in voting during the second surge of coronavirus that's coming in the fall, purge voter rolls, or just plain hack it. Turning out the vote is also usually a little harder for the Democrats. Or the Republicans will come up with some bullshit October surprise and enough people will be dumb enough to buy it. John Kerry's swift boat, Comey's announcement on Hillary, they usually come up with something. For a lead in the polls to translate to a win for the Dems on election day it has to be well outside the margin of error.